Diver2014 Posted August 29, 2019 #326 Share Posted August 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Host CJSKIDS said: I'm getting updates from my friend's neighbor who works for NOAA here in Miami so I'll start posting what updates I get. Nerves are starting to fray. Our local publix grocery stores empty water shelves. It's king tide so flooding will be awful. If anyone remembers, I live on Brickell Ave and the bay came across Brickell and up to our building's stairs for Irma. this should get interesting. I worked in the Vitas building on Biscayne Blvd across from the Intercontinental Hotel. People used to laugh when we say heading to higher ground meant the bridge over the Miami River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tutankhamen Posted August 29, 2019 #327 Share Posted August 29, 2019 NCL Sky 8/31. It will be what it will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legaljen1969 Posted August 29, 2019 #328 Share Posted August 29, 2019 On 8/25/2019 at 12:51 PM, PelicanBill said: Try to stay calm as it's a long time away in hurricane days. Let's see mid week. As you know they've already moved Allure to the west for this week. The question will be what it does 9/1-9/2 when it *could* be heading into SE Florida. We can't be sure, and we can't know it's strength by then. Too early. Yes a LONG way out in Hurricane days as of 8/25. Now it's 8/29 and it's still a mystery as to the ultimate destination of this storm. It seems like my area, Hilton Head, has had too many of these things lately. My thoughts and prayers are with whoever ends up taking the brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cammy8 Posted August 29, 2019 #329 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 hours ago, aloyisuscowboy said: If you are in a red flood zone near tidal surge they will evacuate that hotel and move people out, sometimes even using school buses to take you to shelters at schools and make you leave your vehicles there to flood. I saw this happen with in fort Myers on the river two years ago. I don't know about Florida law or Fort Myers on the west coast, but here in Ft. Lauderdale where I live on the beach, the evacuation for Irma was mandatory (as it always is where I live) but we always have the option to stay. They do warn that once the evacuation is complete, they will not come in to help, which I understand. My high rise (and all the others along the coastline) have been here through storms dating back to the 1970s and they're still standing. That is not to say there wasn't any damage. Our building's air conditioner blew right off the roof onto the beach. Again though, residents can stay if they wish (usually a couple of dozen in each building remain). I believe the hotels close up, but I'm not positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
troyers Posted August 29, 2019 #330 Share Posted August 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, Tutankhamen said: NCL Sky 8/31. It will be what it will be! YEP. We can drink wherever we go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geocruiser Posted August 29, 2019 #331 Share Posted August 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, Host CJSKIDS said: I'm getting updates from my friend's neighbor who works for NOAA here in Miami so I'll start posting what updates I get. Nerves are starting to fray. Our local publix grocery stores empty water shelves. It's king tide so flooding will be awful. If anyone remembers, I live on Brickell Ave and the bay came across Brickell and up to our building's stairs for Irma. this should get interesting. Stay safe. Be prepared. I am watching very closely too. We have a home up the coast in Indian Harbour Beach, with the ocean across the street. Like you said, "this should be interesting" Stay safe and wishing your the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1 Posted August 29, 2019 #332 Share Posted August 29, 2019 4 hours ago, buckeyefrank said: My wife and I are hoping for a diversion to Bermuda for the 9/2 sailing as well. It certainly won't happen for us. Looking at the last cone I saw, Princess Cay is out of the cone entirely. I'm not convinced they can't hug the coast to get down there. The issue as Raiderguy8 said, would be getting back. Remember Bermuda already has both Berths taken next week with regularity scheduled cruises. I am not sure they could accommodate another large ship.. small ships, very small can dock in Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raiderguy8 Posted August 29, 2019 #333 Share Posted August 29, 2019 New cone was just released. Looks like it is being predicted to stay to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minnie00 Posted August 29, 2019 #334 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Euro models show lots more chance or turning north here's hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruiseanon32 Posted August 29, 2019 #335 Share Posted August 29, 2019 NHC update 5 PM, another nudge southward On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare rafinmd Posted August 29, 2019 #336 Share Posted August 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, snowbird1 said: Remember Bermuda already has both Berths taken next week with regularity scheduled cruises. I am not sure they could accommodate another large ship.. small ships, very small can dock in Hamilton. They can, possibly, accommodate one more ship by tendering but it's a difficult process. Ships cannot use their own tenders and must use the Bermudian, a large ferry that can carry many people but only on about an hourly cycle. Possible but DIFFICULT. Roy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 29, 2019 Author #337 Share Posted August 29, 2019 The 5pm NHC updates are largely unchanged. Very slight adjustment south and slight adjustment slower, landfall later on Monday now. But it's getting so big it will "arrive" well before that, and arrive for many miles up and down the coast. There is still so much uncertainty. Some forecasters are going out on a limb regarding turns to the north and recurve. the NHC not looking that far out. We are looking at a long monday to tuesday with the storm ashore and pounding a large area of land with wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erdoran Posted August 29, 2019 #338 Share Posted August 29, 2019 @Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right? It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions! Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshleyDillo Posted August 29, 2019 #339 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Just now, erdoran said: @Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right? It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions! Thank you! Agreed! I love the feedback and discussion. I have a personal stake because of a Sunday Port Everglades sailing but keep holding onto hope that the window stays open for us be able to get board. Otherwise it appears there could be a several day delay before it sails which would require altering my plans since I am not local to south FL. Since I'm scheduled to arrive Saturday, I'm in limbo until we get some official word to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 29, 2019 Author #340 Share Posted August 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, erdoran said: @Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right? It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions! Thank you! Nope... I am an informed amateur who is really good at studying many sources of information and years of experience watching tropical weather. Over the years I have watched how the media, including The Weather Channel, have turned to sensational reporting of tropical weather. They throw in things designed to heighten fear and keep you glued to their coverage. My specialty is to de-sensationalize the reporting and try to bring better understanding of the wide range of scenarios. And correct things like "Hurricane has its sights set on New Orleans" when it in fact is NOT aimed at New Orleans. 6 minutes ago, AshleyDillo said: Agreed! I love the feedback and discussion. I have a personal stake because of a Sunday Port Everglades sailing but keep holding onto hope that the window stays open for us be able to get board. Otherwise it appears there could be a several day delay before it sails which would require altering my plans since I am not local to south FL. Since I'm scheduled to arrive Saturday, I'm in limbo until we get some official word to make a decision. Thank you. Hoping for a northward change to clear Miami and FLL. This is hard for all those with Sunday sailings. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erdoran Posted August 29, 2019 #341 Share Posted August 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, PelicanBill said: Nope... I am an informed amateur who is really good at studying many sources of information and years of experience watching tropical weather. Over the years I have watched how the media, including The Weather Channel, have turned to sensational reporting of tropical weather. They throw in things designed to heighten fear and keep you glued to their coverage. My specialty is to de-sensationalize the reporting and try to bring better understanding of the wide range of scenarios. And correct things like "Hurricane has its sights set on New Orleans" when it in fact is NOT aimed at New Orleans. Thank you. Hoping for a northward change to clear Miami and FLL. This is hard for all those with Sunday sailings. And Sunday flights too, don’t forget us temporary WDW landlubbers.... Hoping for a turn back out to sea actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traciewatson Posted August 29, 2019 #342 Share Posted August 29, 2019 RCCL has posted that they will have final itinerary’s for all ships coming up. They posted a picture showing the storm going south and not getting here until Monday PM and said they would be sending out communication tonight. It said it would confirm if alternate ports were needed and final itinerary. Not sure to take this early on decision probably meaning a cancel or maybe cause of the slow down it means they think the ships can get out Sunday. Holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueclawfan Posted August 29, 2019 #343 Share Posted August 29, 2019 (edited) waiting still for the 6PM update from rccl on their web page on navigator 9/2 Edited August 29, 2019 by blueclawfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Donoilman Posted August 29, 2019 #344 Share Posted August 29, 2019 MSC Seaside is arriving into port 1 day early in preparations for the port of Miami to be closed. MSC will update on Friday as to the sailing of the Seaside on Saturday!!! How likely will the port be closed so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver2014 Posted August 29, 2019 #345 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 hours ago, legaljen1969 said: Yes a LONG way out in Hurricane days as of 8/25. Now it's 8/29 and it's still a mystery as to the ultimate destination of this storm. It seems like my area, Hilton Head, has had too many of these things lately. My thoughts and prayers are with whoever ends up taking the brunt of it. We moved to Hilton Head four years ago because we'd had enough of hurricanes in Miami...just in time for Matthew. Bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Peachypooh Posted August 29, 2019 #346 Share Posted August 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Donoilman said: MSC Seaside is arriving into port 1 day early in preparations for the port of Miami to be closed. MSC will update on Friday as to the sailing of the Seaside on Saturday!!! How likely will the port be closed so early? I just went to the Port of Miami site and at 12 p.m. they instituted preparation X-ray. I have no idea what that means but if interested just google Port of Miami and the information is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discru Posted August 29, 2019 #347 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Don't know how accurate this is, and I definitely don't want to give bad info, but this was on the RCL blog message board- Dolores Bishop • 43 minutes ago My son is on the allure right now and he said they are staying out to sea one more day.So they will be in Monday 9/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gapeachcruzr Posted August 29, 2019 #348 Share Posted August 29, 2019 We have a group were a fellow member is doing a back to back on the Breakaway. He just posted to us that the ships Captain made their 1st public announcement about Dorian just a bit ago. He said that the the Coast Guard has put code X-ray in effect for the Port of Miami and the ship is to stay in place at their last scheduled port which will be Cozumel in the morning. He has told them he would be back to give the passengers more details in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gapeachcruzr Posted August 29, 2019 #349 Share Posted August 29, 2019 (edited) USCG Code X-ray link https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCG/bulletins/25b84a2 Edited August 29, 2019 by gapeachcruzr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliaaay Posted August 29, 2019 #350 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Okay now I’m panicking..... we’re supposed to leave on the NCL Sky this Saturday from Port of Miami. If x-ray is the first step to port closure, what could this mean for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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