Oceania's Action Plan for Coronavirus

[YoHoHo]

36 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

I wonder about the crew and if their screening or level of disclosure is as high as that for passengers. They are living in very confined quarters.  I wonder if they are the issue on the Diamond Princess - how did the confined passengers get their food and from whom, were their cabins cleaned, how was their laundry collected and done?

Reports I saw the crew were still having to share accommodation and take meals in group settings. Pax had food delivered 3x / day. No other personal services such as room cleaning. Meds supplied as available. Security/crew walks the halls to ensure no one violated their quarentine. On a rotational basis  pax were allowed out of the cabin for  a brief period for  walk about on the condition they are not feeling unwell and they maintain a (6'?) distance from another person.

Not a good situation and definitely not good for the crew. Maybe they are now spread out and some are in the pax vacated cabins so their quarantine is better.  Or maybe they will be quarantined on land. As awful as it is for pax, I feel for the crew having to carry-on with their duty and interact.

 

[mamaclark]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

It was an ABC news item I saw 2 days ago....  I would reference what the corpkiid said of his CDC connection which validates what I heard

In this age of instant gratification.... this disease is not going to be a quick fix.    Like the CDC guy who would not travel at least for 4months    and when you couple that with the vaccine is at least 6 months but more likely a year away  the risk is going to be high.

As Paul said  WOW......Me...plan accordingly    If your in a high risk group due to health or age I would  be very careful for quite some time.

Thanks so much for the info. 

[corpkid]

Just listened to an interesting interview by JAMA of Dr. Fauci (of the NIH).  One thing that stuck with me is that what appears to be a 2% fatality rate is most likely much lower.  That is because many patients do not report and subsequently recover, distorting that number greatly.

 

You can watch it here:  https://www.pscp.tv/w/1lDxLgZaQDRJm

Edited February 17, 2020 by corpkid

[WaterView2]

What Dr. Fauci said is probably correct but in the early weeks of the virus in China deaths were being listed as due to pneumonia. In general the statistics have not been reliable. I would watch Singapore and Japan cases as they have advanced medical systems and hopefully better data going forward.

Edited February 17, 2020 by WaterView2
spelling

[clo]

8 hours ago, corpkid said:

My long-time neighbor works for the CDC

CDC folks don't scare easily. Thanks for sharing this.

[Mura]

Just to chime in -- not that anyone asked!  We aren't traveling now for other personal reasons, but if we had scheduled any of these far east cruises, I'm sure we'd have cancelled.  Even if it cost $$$.

 

As of now we wouldn't worry about travel to Europe, but not to Asia, that's for sure.  We are in the age group to be concerned, and DH already has a (mild) cancer diagnosis.  So we wouldn't want to take any risks.

 

We didn't have anything booked that would cost us bundles if we were to cancel after final payment, so that's easy for us to say.  But if we HAD booked a cruise to that area, I think we'd take the financial hit and cancel!

 

Mura 

 

[TrulyBlonde]

6 minutes ago, Mura said:

Just to chime in -- not that anyone asked!  We aren't traveling now for other personal reasons, but if we had scheduled any of these far east cruises, I'm sure we'd have cancelled.  Even if it cost $$$.

 

As of now we wouldn't worry about travel to Europe, but not to Asia, that's for sure.  We are in the age group to be concerned, and DH already has a (mild) cancer diagnosis.  So we wouldn't want to take any risks.

 

We didn't have anything booked that would cost us bundles if we were to cancel after final payment, so that's easy for us to say.  But if we HAD booked a cruise to that area, I think we'd take the financial hit and cancel!

 

Mura 

 

Same with me. I don't want to be on any floating petri dish at this time or a flying one either.

[Mura]

Should I have added that I sympathize with anyone dealing with these issues now who have cruises soon to set out?  Because I surely do!  It's easy for me to say "cancel" when I don't have any money in the game.

 

Mura

 

[Desert_Boomer]

China CDC just released the first comprehensive study of the Coronavirus outbreak - not favorable for the elderly.

 

The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at all 72,314 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed across China as of 11 February, including confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases.

While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.

Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

• Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
• The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
• For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
• For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
• Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
• Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

 

[clo]

1 minute ago, Desert_Boomer said:

China CDC just released the first comprehensive study of the Coronavirus outbreak - not favorable for the elderly.

 

The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at all 72,314 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed across China as of 11 February, including confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases.

While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.

Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

• Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
• The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
• For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
• For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
• Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
• Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

 

This is brillant info. Thanks so much for sharing. There's, of course, a tendency to "freak out." This gives perspective.

[creativegirl]

For what it’s worth, my mom and I are going Mar. 4 unless they offer full refunds.  My husband sent me an interesting article from a guy who survived sars, Mers, etc, and he said he wore gloves to remind himself not to touch his face. So if you see two ladies wearing white gloves, that’s us. I’m also stocking up on antiviral herbs and some Chinese herbs for immunity plus bringing electrolytes for dehydration , wipes, etc. but honestly, I always travel like that anyway. Our last cruise (Silver Seas), we both caught a cold and I got a mild gastrointestinal illness plus sea sickness and we missed one port. We ate at the lunch buffet a lot so I think that’s probably a mistake without washing your hands aftercyou get your food...This will probably be my last cruise because the lack of control is vexing. (Forgot, we are booked on National Geographic’s Iceland to Greenland in the fall)..   Lastly, this is my first cruise with Oceania and I’m a bit surprised people are so nasty to each other knowing full well that you are talking to potential future/past travel companions. Life is too short to be so disrespectful. Be safe cruisers.  

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, Desert_Boomer said:

China CDC just released the first comprehensive study of the Coronavirus outbreak - not favorable for the elderly.

 

The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at all 72,314 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed across China as of 11 February, including confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases.

While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.

Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

• Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
• The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
• For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
• For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
• Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
• Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

 

Interesting data but only as far as we can trust the source 😊

[DeanoNorthPerth]

2 hours ago, creativegirl said:

For what it’s worth, my mom and I are going Mar. 4 unless they offer full refunds.  My husband sent me an interesting article from a guy who survived sars, Mers, etc, and he said he wore gloves to remind himself not to touch his face. So if you see two ladies wearing white gloves, that’s us. I’m also stocking up on antiviral herbs and some Chinese herbs for immunity plus bringing electrolytes for dehydration , wipes, etc. but honestly, I always travel like that anyway. Our last cruise (Silver Seas), we both caught a cold and I got a mild gastrointestinal illness plus sea sickness and we missed one port. We ate at the lunch buffet a lot so I think that’s probably a mistake without washing your hands aftercyou get your food...This will probably be my last cruise because the lack of control is vexing. (Forgot, we are booked on National Geographic’s Iceland to Greenland in the fall)..   Lastly, this is my first cruise with Oceania and I’m a bit surprised people are so nasty to each other knowing full well that you are talking to potential future/past travel companions. Life is too short to be so disrespectful. Be safe cruisers.  

Chinese herbs didn't seem to work for the Chinese.

[cruiseaholic78]

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/singapore-cut-cruise-ship-port-dues-50 -part-coronavirus-relief-package

 

I wonder if Oceania will reflect this when they calculate their rebates!

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by cruiseaholic78

[irr]

Curent Update

4 new cases in Singapore Total known cases 81 

• 88 new cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan were confirmed as a result of 681 people being tested (13% infection rate). Of these, 65 people (74%) have no symptoms. So far, a total of 542 infected people were found among 2,404 passengers and crew members tested (23% infection rate) out of 3,711 total people on the ship.
• 1 new case in Hong Kong: a Filipino woman, domestic helper of a previously confirmed case - Total known cases in Hong Kong 61

 

 

For those of you considerting going on the March 4 cruise here are the latest statistics on death rates. While not listed here about 20% of those infected get severe/critical disease. I am assuming that the percentage  of those who develope severe illness  is much higher for those in the high risk groups. This is not like the common cold for those over 50 and has higher death rates for every age group than the flu (death rate for the flu is 0.1-0.01%) In addition, it appears that risk of infectivity is dramatically higher on a cruise ship, even if pepole are quarantined

 

Death Rate by age

80+ years old 14.8%

70-79 years old 8.0%

60-69 years old 3.6%

50-59 years old 1.3%

40-49 years old 0.4%

10-39 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities 

 

Sec Ratio

 

Male 2.8%

Female 1.7%

Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk: 

1. cardiovascular disease
2. diabetes
3. chronic respiratory disease
4. hypertension

[Shawnino]

Most interesting to me remains the death curve by age.

On a percentage basis (age x-axis, death rate y-axis), it's upward slope, the end.

 

For lots of influenzas (which kill far more, yes, even this year) and related diseases, the very young are also at risk.

Apparently not here. 

[irr]

Death rate for influenza is 0.1 to 0.01%  Muc lower than death rate above  especially for those over 50.  If exposure to this virus increases worldwide the numbers of those dying will be much higher than influenza as we are seeing in China today. Death rate for those over 10 is still higher than influenza. This is a virus to be taken seriously. 

[creativegirl]

According to the news I saw, 80% have mild infections 11% have moderate, 7% severe and only 2% have  life threatening.

[creativegirl]

5 hours ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

Chinese herbs didn't seem to work for the Chinese.

Uhhhh.....why do you think 80% of the cases in China are "mild". Read up on it!

 

[DeanoNorthPerth]

9 minutes ago, creativegirl said:

Uhhhh.....why do you think 80% of the cases in China are "mild". Read up on it!

 

I have. And I still don’t see any proof herbs can beat this virus.

[mamaclark]

Most interesting to me remains the death curve by age.
On a percentage basis (age x-axis, death rate y-axis), it's upward slope, the end.
 
For lots of influenzas (which kill far more, yes, even this year) and related diseases, the very young are also at risk.
Apparently not here. 

I wonder if the younger population has been spared thus far because it has not hit the schools yet. Watch out when it does!


Sent from my iPad using Forums

[irr]

Also, for those who are planning on going to Singapore. I just spoke to a friend of mine whose son lives in Singapore. Everyone is assessed for the virus in some way going in and out of buildings including temperature scans. if you have a low grade fever or higher going into a building plan on being taken to a health care facility for virus screening and assessment. Lucky for those in Singapore there is universal health care and the health care system is geared up for this. However, if you are running a low grade fever for any reason or respiratory symptoms at any point in your stay in Singapore it is likely you will be evaluated for the virus. I am not sure what the current turn around time for virus screening is in Singapore at present or what that screening process entails for visitors. 

 

Also this just in from Thailand

Thailand said on Monday it had recorded one new case of the coronavirus and was increasing screening of visitors from Singapore and Japan entering the country in response to the widening outbreak.

 

[Shawnino]

33 minutes ago, mamaclark said:

I wonder if the younger population has been spared thus far because it has not hit the schools yet. Watch out when it does!


Sent from my iPad using Forums

 

It's my understanding that most if not all of the physical schools in hotspots are closed, and kids are learning online.

[stageberglaw]

On 1/31/2020 at 7:26 PM, irr said:

The response has been variable. I have not seen a full review comparing cancellations vs liberalization of credits or refunds vs the Oceania hard core response of no refunds or credits no matter what. . I have actually asked a local newspaper to research this. It is an important topic as those cruise lines that understand their role as a member of the world community with respect for current concerns  need to be recognized. The problem here is that there seem to be a distinction made, at least by Oceania, between main land China and Hong Kong which is a bit of a distinction without a difference. While the intensity of infection in Hong Kong is currently less than the epicenter,  Hong Kong was a key source of SARS in the past and the borders have not been fully shut down between Hong Kong and the main land. With unknowns about how many asymptomatic people are contagious what will happen in Hong Kong is just starting to be recognized. 

Oceania apparently refuses to give a full refund for our trip starting on March 4.  We will not risk going to Asia with the risk of serious virus, and demand a full refund.  Anyone else taking the same position?

[creativegirl]

23 minutes ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

I have. And I still don’t see any proof herbs can beat this virus.

 

Chinese Herbs don't "beat" the virus. They support immune response. The rest is up to the body to fight it off. Sometimes the body can't do it...Google immune modulator Chinese herbs.