Will cost of Cruises rise or Fall in Future?

[majortom10]

4 minutes ago, hypercafe said:

I don't think the industry will have a chance until there is a vacine for this virus. Once there is one I believe things will revert to normal. If they sail before I believe they will have to have great deals to get people to take a chance. I don't thing pre vacine insurance will be available or many ports will allow ships to call.

It is going to be the best part of 12 months before a vaccine is widely available and do not think cruise lines can stay in the current position for that long without severe repercussions of cruise lines going insolvent. If they have to wait 12 months+ for a vaccine then there will not be ships or cruise lines to go on.

[hypercafe]

40 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

It is going to be the best part of 12 months before a vaccine is widely available and do not think cruise lines can stay in the current position for that long without severe repercussions of cruise lines going insolvent. If they have to wait 12 months+ for a vaccine then there will not be ships or cruise lines to go on.

I agree with you however living in NYC and seeing all this I would never get on a cruise ship unless I was vaccinated against this. It's a personal choice and will change the industry for a very long time.

[navybankerteacher]

40 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

It is going to be the best part of 12 months before a vaccine is widely available and do not think cruise lines can stay in the current position for that long without severe repercussions of cruise lines going insolvent. If they have to wait 12 months+ for a vaccine then there will not be ships or cruise lines to go on.

 

The ships are not going to disappear.  Even if laid up for a year, the ships (or at least many of them) be there - perhaps owned by other investors.  I do think that the industry will never be the same— I think it has expanded beyond sustainability given the new environment.  Increased operating costs as a result of substantial cleaning requirements, increased staff due to elimination of self-serve cafeterias will drive away the budget-minded.  At the same time, many ports will no longer accept large ships carrying budget-minded passengers who contribute little financial benefit while damaging the attractiveness of those ports. Whatever happens, fares will have to rise

 

There will be a surplus of mega-ships, while new builds will likely be smaller ships.

[resistk]

56 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

 

The ships are not going to disappear.  Even if laid up for a year, the ships (or at least many of them) be there - perhaps owned by other investors.  I do think that the industry will never be the same— I think it has expanded beyond sustainability given the new environment.  Increased operating costs as a result of substantial cleaning requirements, increased staff due to elimination of self-serve cafeterias will drive away the budget-minded.  At the same time, many ports will no longer accept large ships carrying budget-minded passengers who contribute little financial benefit while damaging the attractiveness of those ports. Whatever happens, fares will have to rise

 

There will be a surplus of mega-ships, while new builds will likely be smaller ships.

 

Yes absent some miracle vaccine that causes a reset; 50% of their passengers are not going to set foot on those ships ever again and even then they will need to set up for a post COVID environment.  Right now so little is known about COVID that we are going to have to wait and see if it reappears (assuming it goes into hiatus) next winter and spring.  QM2 might stad a chance if its Transatlantics were somehow billed as "safer than flying" but that would take some doing.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by resistk

[Chunky2219]

Well, the first answer is out.    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnival-cruise-bookings-surge-600-after-august-relaunch-announcement

 

Carnival are taking bookings for August, with four days starting at $119.  That's per cruise, not per day.   "Carnival said earlier this week it is focusing operations on homeports that are largely accessible by car. "

 

I suppose it gives them a chance to sail around a bit to shake the barnacles off, it might even be nearly as cheap as the cost of standing at a mooring.  They can dish out some pretty adequate food while selling huge quantities of booze and pushing everyone into the casino with cattle prods. The marginal cost/revenue numbers might even be slightly positive.

 

But that sort of pricing still won't stop the parent group circling a massive, glooping vortex of financial disaster.  It's a business model that certainly won't work for Cunard, not  unless they put a water slide over the pool and do a sponsorship deal with Burger King.

[resistk]

Cunard will be doing the Hadj route, Mumbai-Jiddah instead of Transatlantics if it is smart and wants to say in business.  There was a huge Saudi stake taken in Carnival and I am sure they had contigency plans.  Chinese domestic travel is bouncing back fast too.  But as for the rest of the world, I sincerely hope Cunard will be one of the last standing when this all shakes out.  Breaking up Carnival might actually be good for business.

Edited May 12, 2020 by resistk

[Guest SilverHengroen]

11 hours ago, Chunky2219 said:

Well, the first answer is out.    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnival-cruise-bookings-surge-600-after-august-relaunch-announcement

 

Carnival are taking bookings for August, with four days starting at $119.  That's per cruise, not per day.   "Carnival said earlier this week it is focusing operations on homeports that are largely accessible by car. "

 

I suppose it gives them a chance to sail around a bit to shake the barnacles off, it might even be nearly as cheap as the cost of standing at a mooring.  They can dish out some pretty adequate food while selling huge quantities of booze and pushing everyone into the casino with cattle prods. The marginal cost/revenue numbers might even be slightly positive.

 

But that sort of pricing still won't stop the parent group circling a massive, glooping vortex of financial disaster.  It's a business model that certainly won't work for Cunard, not  unless they put a water slide over the pool and do a sponsorship deal with Burger King.

The shot distance, short duration mini Europe cruises do seem the safest bet if they want to dip a toe in the water, see how many takers there are, see how social distancing will work etc. Even bringing in enough money to break even on individual ships will help to slow the rate at which they're chewing through the money Carnival borrowed against the fleet. 

[Doubt It]

Setting price aside for the moment - it depends what the cruise product will be. 

 

If it is less staff, less variety and quality of food, more restrictions on movement and access, less ports available - then no, not even for free.

 

My time is worth a lot, so to set aside my time for a bare bones/somewhat inconvenience cruise - is not something I will do.

 

I will examine other travel options and determine which option provides me with the best financial and non financial product.

 

The days of automatically considering a cruise first is Gone.

[navybankerteacher]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:11 AM, Doubt It said:

Setting price aside for the moment - it depends what the cruise product will be. 

 

If it is less staff, less variety and quality of food, more restrictions on movement and access, less ports available - then no, not even for free.

 

My time is worth a lot, so to set aside my time for a bare bones/somewhat inconvenience cruise - is not something I will do.

 

I will examine other travel options and determine which option provides me with the best financial and non financial product.

 

The days of automatically considering a cruise first is Gone.

Good summary.  If I cruise again, it will be for the quality of the experience and not because it is a bargain.  It is difficult to see any of the larger ships providing anything other than a big boat ride with acceptable grub as opposed to enjoyable food. The increased staffing (which seems unavoidable to provide for health iniatives) coupled with reduced passenger capacity to control crowding will require significant fare increases.  The bottom line will be the attractiveness of the itinerary: enjoyable ports (meaning they cannot be mobbed as so many have been recently) or a more comfortable way than flying to cross the water .

 

I cannot help thinking that COVID 19 has rung the death knell for cruising as 90% of cruisers came to see it over the past decade or two.

[Doubt It]

naveybankerteacher.

 

Indeed. Well said and compliments to you for being a sharp consumer and looking after Yourself First! Right on.

 

I believe that many (but not all) cruisers will examine the full Continuum of cruising issues and note the following:

 

1) Falling value over the past 5 years

2) No refunds and cruise line excuses - a big turn off patronizing cruising again

3) Having to fly on planes post virus

4) Exchange rate - I am Canadian and I am not purchasing overseas trips anymore given our useless Cdn $

5) Post virus changes to onboard

6) Likely more cut backs on cruise ships due to many reasons (think less staff due to issues of retention etc)

 

There are many vacation options out there, consumers need to examine all of them before automatically deciding on a cruise.

 

[majortom10]

Looking at prices for 2021 currently being bombarded with e-mails here in the UK from cruise TA's and prices certainly dont seem to be cheaper. Obviously cruise lines are doing well with people booking with FCC from cancelled cruises in 2020 and thinking they are getting bargains with 25% extra offer but prices are a lot higher than they were when 2021 programme was initially released so cruise lines are rubbing their hands.

[david,Mississauga]

13 hours ago, Doubt It said:

naveybankerteacher.

 

Indeed. Well said and compliments to you for being a sharp consumer and looking after Yourself First! Right on.

 

I believe that many (but not all) cruisers will examine the full Continuum of cruising issues and note the following:

 

1) Falling value over the past 5 years

2) No refunds and cruise line excuses - a big turn off patronizing cruising again

3) Having to fly on planes post virus

4) Exchange rate - I am Canadian and I am not purchasing overseas trips anymore given our useless Cdn $

5) Post virus changes to onboard

6) Likely more cut backs on cruise ships due to many reasons (think less staff due to issues of retention etc)

 

There are many vacation options out there, consumers need to examine all of them before automatically deciding on a cruise.

 

 

Indeed, as a Canadian I am concerned about future fares. Fortunately, in recent years Cunard has set fares in Canadian $ and they have usually been at an advantageous rate for us. For many years Cunard established the Canadian fares at 20% above the US fares which was a bargain.

 

It is not easy for me to make an exact comparison between the US and Canadian fares, but when I get a brochure in the post with fares in US $ I can go on-line and get the Canadian equivalent. The last time I was able to make the comparison the difference was an average of 25% which is still a reasonably good deal. On some voyages the Canadian fares were only 10% more but on one voyage it was over 50%.

 

Liner voyages have always been our favourite as opposed to cruises. Despite the bad publicity that cruise ships have had regarding the COVID-19, I think there may be an increased demand for crossings. I am more suspicious of flying than travelling by ship. Most ships – not just the Cunard vessels – have had no problem with the virus.

 

Of course social distancing is impossible at all times on a ship, but it is impossible on a plane. I am not impressed by the promise that middle seats (or adjacent seats as Air Canada calls them on wide-body jets) will not be sold. With the “pitch” in economy having been reduced to an appalling 29 to 32 inches there will still be someone behind you at less than half the recommended distance. Sleeper seats or pods in the front cabin will be much safer, but the cost of these is usually beyond my budget. (Thank goodness for airline points!)

[Doubt It]

Hi david,Mississauga.

 

We have been doing Globus tours much more than cruising because it is much more realistic and rewarding. We do the QM2 either way to Europe.

This will continue as we avoid the cruise lines for the foreseeable future - for many reasons.

 

The currency issue is increasingly bugging me so even the Globus tours are being wound down.

 

Flying - with the bull regarding Canadian airlines not giving refunds (I have joined the class action suit), I will not be patronizing Cdn airlines in the future either. If I need to fly, will drive to the USA and take a flight there just to screw the Cdn airlines and the anti consumer CTA.

[BlueRiband]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:11 AM, Doubt It said:

Setting price aside for the moment - it depends what the cruise product will be. 

 

If it is less staff, less variety and quality of food, more restrictions on movement and access, less ports available - then no, not even for free.

 

My time is worth a lot, so to set aside my time for a bare bones/somewhat inconvenience cruise - is not something I will do...

That's pretty much how I feel especially if some of the suggested procedures that were posted here were actually put into effect.  If I have to wear a mask, encounter restricted capacity at venues, or be forced to dine alone after picking up food at a take-out window then there is no way I would sail.  That's not my idea of a vacation.

 

2 hours ago, david,Mississauga said:

...Of course social distancing is impossible at all times on a ship, but it is impossible on a plane. I am not impressed by the promise that middle seats (or adjacent seats as Air Canada calls them on wide-body jets) will not be sold... 

Images from two packed United Airlines flights were posted this past week.  It appears that every single seat is occupied.  Packed UAL flights

 

Fares will have to increase.  Extra crew members to do increased cleaning have to room somewhere and that somewhere will come from former passenger cabins.  Revenue from those cabins is permanently lost.   If passengers will be covid tested at the terminal the cruise lines might have to offer a voucher if a passenger is denied boarding due to a positive test.  That's lost revenue but they may have to do that as who will be willing to book if they risk losing 100% of their fare with no recourse.  Many travel insurers have already implemented Covid-19 exclusions.

Edited May 16, 2020 by BlueRiband

[Doubt It]

BlueRiband, exactly said.

 

There seems to be many on the CC boards that think virtually the same cruise product will be available in the future - hence the posters saying they have booked another cruise.

 

Well, likely not. For cruising to compete with other vacation options, it will have to provide a high level of service and on board experience and provide many Welcoming ports - all as before.

 

I am not spending Bigger $ to purchase a scaled down, restrictive cruise. 

 

Another key point is what we saw - guests being held hostage on a ship with no where to dock. Then there is the lack of medical services.

 

Nope - cruising does not stack up well at this point with land based vacations.

[navybankerteacher]

20 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

BlueRiband, exactly said.

 

There seems to be many on the CC boards that think virtually the same cruise product will be available in the future - hence the posters saying they have booked another cruise.

 

Well, likely not. For cruising to compete with other vacation options, it will have to provide a high level of service and on board experience and provide many Welcoming ports - all as before.

 

I am not spending Bigger $ to purchase a scaled down, restrictive cruise. 

 

Another key point is what we saw - guests being held hostage on a ship with no where to dock. Then there is the lack of medical services.

 

Nope - cruising does not stack up well at this point with land based vacations.

A good look at one side of the coin.  Then there is the affordability question (whether or not the quality of the cruise experience can be maintained):  many people will have either exhausted their reserves;  others will see themselves a bit closer to retirement - with their retirement assets significantly impacted and will be more cautious with expenditures;  the fortunate few who have not suffered financially will find themselves paying much higher taxes as local and national governments strive to bring down the massive deficits now being run up — which, if left unchecked, will bring about runaway inflation.

 

Wholly aside from the health aspects, the economic sea change needs to be considered — the recently experienced “golden age” of cruising which so many seem to think will shortly return unchanged,  was built during a decade-long, low-inflation, economic boom time. We are now facing a long deep recession or a period of massive inflation - possibly a bit of both combined.  Those expecting a quick return to “normal” are kidding themselves.

[longton]

We have been thinking of booking a 14 nights Mediterranean cruise (V114) for June 2021. 

 

Last week we got prices for different categories of Britannia balcony suite and today we were told all prices have increased by about 10%.

 

 

[majortom10]

2 hours ago, longton said:

We have been thinking of booking a 14 nights Mediterranean cruise (V114) for June 2021. 

 

Last week we got prices for different categories of Britannia balcony suite and today we were told all prices have increased by about 10%.

 

 

Obviously the popular summer cruises will increase due to fluid pricing. I should imagine mny are booking with FCC thinking that they are getting a bargain with the extra 25% offered. But in effect prices for 2021/22 are currently a lot higher than when they were first released in September 2019 so Cunard are actually giving nothing away, guaranteeing future bookings and even more importantly keeping your money for an extra 12 months.

[Doubt It]

Well, well, greedy cruise lines.

 

Moving on from cruising then.

 

They need to understand that I and my friends and family are all working on vacations, none of them will touch a cruise with a 10 foot pole.  Some have cruised and are declining cruising and some have never cruised and will not.

 

We have all talked about the risk of air travel, then put a cruise on top - no way.

 

 

[resistk]

Price of fuel dropped, cruise lines should drop their prices since they are quick to add a "fuel surcharge."

Edited May 18, 2020 by resistk

[Covepointcruiser]

Cruise Lines are not being greedy.   The cost of basic fuel has declined but not the cost of Natural Gas (we export our to India and Japan), premium fuels, Liquid Petroleum and evening fuel used by U.S. Navy Ships.   The price of food, paper products, and cleaning supplies have seen major increases.

 

I still remember the flu pandemic in 1968 and I was cruising and spent 30 days touring Europe on a rail pass.   No restrictions at all, no closings, and very little news coverage.  Over 1million died and 100K in the US.   Have we made any progress since then?

[resistk]

1 hour ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Cruise Lines are not being greedy.   The cost of basic fuel has declined but not the cost of Natural Gas (we export our to India and Japan), premium fuels, Liquid Petroleum and evening fuel used by U.S. Navy Ships.   The price of food, paper products, and cleaning supplies have seen major increases.

 

I still remember the flu pandemic in 1968 and I was cruising and spent 30 days touring Europe on a rail pass.   No restrictions at all, no closings, and very little news coverage.  Over 1million died and 100K in the US.   Have we made any progress since then?

 

The fuel surcharges were tied to the price of crude oil so if the cruise ships don't use oil why did the cruise lines charge passengers contractual fuel surcharges tied to the price of crude?   The cruise lines can lock in cheap prices now and pass the savigs on.

Edited May 19, 2020 by resistk

[Doubt It]

13 hours ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Cruise Lines are not being greedy.   The cost of basic fuel has declined but not the cost of Natural Gas (we export our to India and Japan), premium fuels, Liquid Petroleum and evening fuel used by U.S. Navy Ships.   The price of food, paper products, and cleaning supplies have seen major increases.

 

I still remember the flu pandemic in 1968 and I was cruising and spent 30 days touring Europe on a rail pass.   No restrictions at all, no closings, and very little news coverage.  Over 1million died and 100K in the US.   Have we made any progress since then?

 

Yes, the 1968 pandemic happened and life and the economy moved along despite it. Makes one wonder were people more realistic and hardy back then versus society today. It seems society gets more fragile and wimpy decade after decade and expects more government care and handouts ie the social welfare state.

 

In Canada over 70% of the deaths have been in long term care homes (not retirement homes), many of which are owned by the government. No attempts were made to isolate this typical, most vunerable, citizen group - they were not triaged as a level 1 isolation grouping. 

 

Density does seem to play a role in this virus, like the flu, so the impact on air travel and cruising could be profound.

 

[Flying-Dragon]

On 5/16/2020 at 6:03 AM, Doubt It said:

Flying - with the bull regarding Canadian airlines not giving refunds (I have joined the class action suit), I will not be patronizing Cdn airlines in the future either. If I need to fly, will drive to the USA and take a flight there just to screw the Cdn airlines and the anti consumer CTA.

 

Actually, on our recently cancelled two cruises, flights were with Delta, KLM and Air Transat, and none of them gave refunds, only future credit, time-limited.  It's not a purely Canadian problem.

[Doubt It]

Thanks Flying-Dragon.

 

I am on this file, like Air Canada is sitting on about 2.6 Billion of client deposits. I have an Air Transat from Paris to Toronto September 14, I anticipate this being cancelled.

 

Count on me wanting my $ back.