100 more days

[chengkp75]

17 minutes ago, orville99 said:

IMO, a proverbial “shot across the bow” by the CDC. Definitely got the cruise lines attention. I expect that the document will be published once the cruise lines capitulate.

What would the cruise lines' "capitulation" have to do with when the document is published?  It had errors in it (Celebrity does not own Coral Princess), and I believe they wanted to clarify when the 100 day period is considered to start (publishing of original order or this revised order).  I do agree that this was done to give the cruise lines a definitive timeline, since CLIA has promised action and had not come forth, though I believe this to be an extremely complex scenario, and think this can be "operationalized" by the 7 day deadline.

[Seacruise]

13 hours ago, npcl said:

It is actually 100 days from when it is listed in the Federal Register. It was published on 3/24

It is an extension of that original order.
Why would they need to re-issue the order when the original order is still in effect.
Yes the order has other conditions as well and the cruise lines can dream all they want but there is no way that cruise will be back in the middle of May.
Please tell me how the cruise lines figure they will be back up and sailing by then.
The first thing is they have to re-crew their ships and that isn't happening anytime soon.

[Pratique]

3 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

What would the cruise lines' "capitulation" have to do with when the document is published?  It had errors in it (Celebrity does not own Coral Princess), and I believe they wanted to clarify when the 100 day period is considered to start (publishing of original order or this revised order).  I do agree that this was done to give the cruise lines a definitive timeline, since CLIA has promised action and had not come forth, though I believe this to be an extremely complex scenario, and think this can be "operationalized" by the 7 day deadline.

To me this is a sign of a breakdown in communications between the industry and government. Maybe the industry is falling short, but if they were working together in good faith I don't think this action would be needed. The way the order is worded seems unusually harsh.

[livingonthebeach]

31 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

Are there any numbers available on the demographics of RC sailings? I doubt all the money poured into bumping cars, enormous water slides, surf simulators, laser tag, etc, etc is for the over 70 age group. 

 

According to the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) Global Passenger Report, 14% are age 70 and above for all cruises.  However, on some longer cruises, including Transatlantic cruises, the percent is much higher.  

[livingonthebeach]

30 minutes ago, SherriZ366 said:

I'm just guessing 25-40% of cruisers are over 65 -- I think it varies between ship types (e.g. ones without the activities geared to families with children) and time of year.  Also older people are more apt to take more than one cruise per year -- many families are limited to school vacations and cruise once per year or every other year.  

 

According to the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) Global Passenger Report, 33% are 60 and older.  You are right about the ship and time of year and the fact that older people take more cruises.  I would add that longer cruises 14+ days, the number of 60+ passengers is much higher.  

[WeLuvVacation]

Per CLIA for all cruisers.

 

[orville99]

21 minutes ago, Pratique said:

The justification cited by the CDC for the modified order is that the plan previously submitted by the CLIA was woefully insufficient, particularly with respect to ensuring that they will not rely on federal or state resources. It is a tall order and basically the federal government is telling the cruise lines no joy until they can prove that they will not be a burden on government resources. They want the industry to take care of it on their own.

[Pratique]

1 minute ago, orville99 said:

Ha ha yes.

 

I appreciate this all of this is extremely stressful for everyone and that we are sailing in uncharted waters. I also appreciate that the CDC has bigger problems to deal with than working with the cruise lines. All I can hope is that they work out a plan that everyone can agree on sooner than later. But I don't see cruising resuming until the public health emergency is lifted. In the meantime, grab the popcorn.

[livingonthebeach]

3 minutes ago, WeLuvVacation said:

Per CLIA for all cruisers.

 

 
Thanks for the chart, the 2018 numbers show 60+ at 33% and 70+ at 14%.  The 50+ crowd represents 51% of all passengers.  

[adidas5676]

34 minutes ago, WeLuvVacation said:

Per CLIA for all cruisers.

 

Wow, pretty equal spread, actually.  But 40+ equates to 2/3 of all cruisers, that's pretty interesting for sure!

[SherriZ366]

41 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

According to the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) Global Passenger Report, 33% are 60 and older.  You are right about the ship and time of year and the fact that older people take more cruises.  I would add that longer cruises 14+ days, the number of 60+ passengers is much higher.  

Thanks for a real % number on senior citizens.  I was estimating based on my experience.  I forgot longer cruises attracting a higher percentage of my age group.   Also many 65+ have the time to take back to back cruises on 7 day ships -- especially those ships that alternate eastern and western itineraries.  

[SherriZ366]

43 minutes ago, WeLuvVacation said:

Per CLIA for all cruisers.

 

Thanks for posting the chart.  

[orville99]

38 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 
Thanks for the chart, the 2018 numbers show 60+ at 33% and 70+ at 14%.  The 50+ crowd represents 51% of all passengers.  

I think if the data were available, you’d also find that different cruise line brands tend to cluster around different age groups. I’d expect Disney to cluster lower, and someone like Viking to cluster higher. 

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, orville99 said:

I think if the data were available, you’d also find that different cruise line brands tend to cluster around different age groups. I’d expect Disney to cluster lower, and someone like Viking to cluster higher. 

 

Yes very true.  These numbers are for all cruises but you could narrow it down by cruise line as well.  Carnival attracts more 20 somethings for their party atmosphere, Disney for young families and Princess cruisers tend to be older.  The luxury lines such as Azamara, Oceania, Silverstar etc also attract an older crowd as do river cruises.  

[livingonthebeach]

This 100 day order will not be good for the cruise industry's bottom line, unfortunately.  I see stock prices going down as well if they are not able to go back to business sooner.

https://www.businessinsider.com/carnival-royal-caribbean-banned-from-sailing-up-to-3-months-2020-4

[Pratique]

1 hour ago, Jobeth66 said:

 

I think that was a prior order, not the new one.

The prior order from March has not been rescinded AFAIK.

 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/24/2020-06166/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation

[Jobeth66]

1 minute ago, Pratique said:

The prior order from March has not been rescinded AFAIK.

 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/24/2020-06166/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation

 

No, I think there was something issued on 4/8 that was pulled down, then the current directive was put up on 4/9.

[livingonthebeach]

According to this article in Business Insider:

 

"Cruise ships may be barred from sailing in US waters until July, an order issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday said."

 

[Pratique]

10 minutes ago, Jobeth66 said:

 

No, I think there was something issued on 4/8 that was pulled down, then the current directive was put up on 4/9.

Which current directive are you referring to?

[Jobeth66]

Just now, Pratique said:

Which current directive are you referring to?

 

The one issued on 4/9 that bars cruise ships from sailing for 100 days - the one that's the subject of this topic.  https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/

 

[NCMtnBoys]

1 hour ago, Seacruise said:

The first thing is they have to re-crew their ships and that isn't happening anytime soon.

Especially since there are still some ships floating around that have crew on them that are sick, resulting in others around them being exposed and likely getting sick. I think all cruise lines need to empty all their ships of all crew so at least the virus can be eradicated on these ships, which would at least be heading in the direction of preparing for a return to cruising. Right now with the virus still on some of their ships they're not ready, even if they were told they could start sailing again next month.

[Pratique]

2 minutes ago, Jobeth66 said:

 

The one issued on 4/9 that bars cruise ships from sailing for 100 days - the one that's the subject of this topic.  https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/

 

That one has not been published in the Federal Register yet. Maybe we'll see it publish next week. Maybe it wasn't sent to the National Archives in time for today's edition. So the 100 days won't start until it's published.

[rtazz17]

Lmao!  I love all the guessing.....

 

anyways does anyone really think the cruise industry is any where near ready to take a chance on sailing and then having an outbreak? Really dont think this 100 days means much. Whats going to matter is how everything evolves and then it will take care of it self. 
 

Myself I wont book a cruise till I actually see sailings resume. Im not floating a loan to rccl for them to use for refunds to others.

[livingonthebeach]

2 minutes ago, NCMtnBoys said:

Especially since there are still some ships floating around that have crew on them that are sick, resulting in others around them being exposed and likely getting sick. I think all cruise lines need to empty all their ships of all crew so at least the virus can be eradicated on these ships, which would at least be heading in the direction of preparing for a return to cruising. Right now with the virus still on some of their ships they're not ready, even if they were told they could start sailing again next month.

 

So true.  Just today the Oasis docked at Port Everglades to let off sick crew members.  I agree that they should empty all the ships and do a massive clean up.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241922051.html

[flyguyjake]

If this virus only remains infectious on certain surfaces for up to 3 days (solid surfaces such as stainless steel) wouldn't the passenger rooms become noninfectious after 3 days of being unoccupied?