what are the chances on a june ncl cruise ?

[seaman11]

9 minutes ago, Newleno said:

I hope you are wrong, if there wont be a buffet, i will have think real long about taking a cruise, going to dinner like normal people is a big pain, not enjoyable at all.

not have a breakfast/lunch  buffet will be a bummer for me . i like dinning in the resturant at night . 

[kwokpot]

15 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

not have a breakfast/lunch  buffet will be a bummer for me . i like dinning in the resturant at night . 

I'm not sure if they would completely shut the buffet down but it will not be self service and they will have limit the amount of people that enter the buffet at any one time.

[Charles4515]

If you want to stay in your home, stay in your home.  If you want to leave your home and know the risk and are comfortable with the risk, than do that.  The problem occurs when you leave your home and then get the Wuhan, then you decide to go to the hospital which overwhelms the system. (So perhaps have instructions not to go to hospital if you get the Wuhan)

 

One can easily make a no sew mask out of a shirt (with papertowel/shopclothpapertowel as filter), wear gloves, and easily make a shield PPE out of a two liter clear bottle, use social distancing, try to stay away from people/crowds,   this might help to avoid the Wuhan, or at least help to prevent others from getting the Wuhan.   However there are no fail safes.

 

I have plenty of medical masks. I also have cloth masks that neighbors sewed and gave to me. I have been going out once or twice a week for groceries. They limit the amount of people who can enter and have yellow lines 6 feet apart. I can’t see wearing a mask and social distancing on a cruise ship. That does not sound like fun.

 

 

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[Charles4515]

I'm not sure if they would completely shut the buffet down but it will not be self service and they will have limit the amount of people that enter the buffet at any one time.

I guess they would do that. On Oceania it is not self serve and works out well. On HAL one sailing they were worried about Noro and had crew serve at the buffet. On the HAL cruise the passengers complained to no end. On Oceania I think it is considered to be a feature.


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[kwokpot]

Here is an article about what Wynn Casinos plan to do in order reopen their Las Vegas casinos in mid May. THEY WILL REQUIRE GUESTS TO WEAR MASKS. It gives you an idea of what it will take for the lesiure and travel industry to reopen. I think it's pretty eye-opening and it demonstrates that things WILL NOT BE NORMAL. 

 https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/wynn-resorts-unveils-health-and-safety-plan-for-reopening/

Edited April 19, 2020 by kwokpot

[Fartlek]

Back to the original question if you will be sailing in June.  I would say there is a slight chance you will be sailing June 2022.  No way this year, very doubtful a year this June and only a small chance in 2022.  The risk and liability is too high until a vaccine is created and proven which is 18-24 months away.  The cruises industry will be the absolute last industry open.   

[electro]

4 hours ago, seaman11 said:

So it seems you are coming around to the idea that cruises will happen again this summer  (albeit slowly) 

What does it matter what anyone thinks about when cruises will happen? It will have no effect on when that happens. Cruising will start again when it starts, regardless of what anyone here (including you) say.

[Comi.uy]

2 hours ago, Fartlek said:

Back to the original question if you will be sailing in June.  I would say there is a slight chance you will be sailing June 2022.  No way this year, very doubtful a year this June and only a small chance in 2022.  The risk and liability is too high until a vaccine is created and proven which is 18-24 months away.  The cruises industry will be the absolute last industry open.   

This doesnt make sense. Theres no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be available. Google vaccine for SARS or MERS, which are similar to corona. The world will not be closed for 2 years lol. Theres plenty of risks on everything you do ever day all the time, now u'll just have to add the extra risk of corona and carry on with your life (and cruises!)

[Charles4515]

This doesnt make sense. Theres no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be available. Google vaccine for SARS or MERS, which are similar to corona. The world will not be closed for 2 years lol. Theres plenty of risks on everything you do ever day all the time, now u'll just have to add the extra risk of corona and carry on with your life (and cruises!)

They never finished a vaccine for SARS because the money dried up. SARS and MERS did not spread like COVID 19 so unfortunately interest was lost in investing in a vaccine.


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[mianmike]

13 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

 

They never finished a vaccine for SARS because the money dried up. SARS and MERS did not spread like COVID 19 so unfortunately interest was lost in investing in a vaccine.
 

 

 

From my understanding NIH had continued to study vaccines for coronaviruses.  Thus, the NIH and Moderma were able to develop a Covid-19 vaccine so quickly.  Sounds like phase one testing has gone well. 

[Charles4515]

 
From my understanding NIH had continued to study vaccines for coronaviruses.  Thus, the NIH and Moderma were able to develop a Covid-19 vaccine so quickly.  Sounds like phase one testing has gone well. 

I am optimistic that there will a Covid -19 vaccine. Probably more than one. There is a huge incentive to develop a Covid-19 vaccine.


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[old nutter]

I suspect that individual risk is going to be a minor issue for the cruise industry in the whole.  The biggest risk will be what happens if a port refuses landing because "they" or their population thinks there is a problem on a ship.

 

The last three ships in this current episode only docked yesterday and the MSC one had a problem in the earlier stages down under when even though they had no cases on board they were denied a landing because locals demonstrated against it stopping there.  Just look at the latest tweet from POTUS last night where he is trying to effectively extend a virtual wall all round the US to stop any chance of someone bringing the virus into the country.

 

Everyone now knows just what happens if a cruise line ends a cruise in a foreign country and the passengers then get abandoned in a country that cannot then help them get them home because either that country or the home one has closed borders in and out.  That risk will not be fully mitigated by any personal measures because the individuals movements are taken completely out of their hands and it can change very quickly.  Risking your future when you have no hope of mitigating that risk will be the greatest issue for potential customers.  And do not forget that corona virus is no longer a risk that any travel insurance will cover on new bookings from now on!  Not very hopeful, I am afraid.  The outlook is not very good for quite a while, never mind this summer.

[Mrdodgy]

3 hours ago, old nutter said:

I suspect that individual risk is going to be a minor issue for the cruise industry in the whole.  The biggest risk will be what happens if a port refuses landing because "they" or their population thinks there is a problem on a ship.

 

The last three ships in this current episode only docked yesterday and the MSC one had a problem in the earlier stages down under when even though they had no cases on board they were denied a landing because locals demonstrated against it stopping there.  Just look at the latest tweet from POTUS last night where he is trying to effectively extend a virtual wall all round the US to stop any chance of someone bringing the virus into the country.

 

Everyone now knows just what happens if a cruise line ends a cruise in a foreign country and the passengers then get abandoned in a country that cannot then help them get them home because either that country or the home one has closed borders in and out.  That risk will not be fully mitigated by any personal measures because the individuals movements are taken completely out of their hands and it can change very quickly.  Risking your future when you have no hope of mitigating that risk will be the greatest issue for potential customers.  And do not forget that corona virus is no longer a risk that any travel insurance will cover on new bookings from now on!  Not very hopeful, I am afraid.  The outlook is not very good for quite a while, never mind this summer.

Love your screen name - great sense written !

[buckeyefrank]

On 4/16/2020 at 11:50 AM, JustAPilot said:

Either you are just trolling us at this point or you have no concept of losing money. If you are so sure cruising is coming back this summer why not buy some stock in NCL, they could really use your investment right about now.

Purchasing existing stock in a company does not go to the company.  It goes to the individual who owned the stock before.

[Charles4515]

Purchasing existing stock in a company does not go to the company.  It goes to the individual who owned the stock before.

Given that NCL is still trying to sell cruises they know won’t happen and is the last to cancel cruises it is pretty obvious that NCL is in dire straits. I would consider them the most likely to be liquidated.


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[kwokpot]

Someone on another thread posted this article about Italy and a possible Phased timeline of reopening the country.

It shows leisure travel and no more border restrictions to be AFTER MARCH 31st, 2021

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/04/16/5e98b8d5ca4741bd688b45ab.html

Edited April 21, 2020 by kwokpot

[All-ready2cruise]

Thanks for posting this article. If this is true and gov't doesn't change it's mind, I guess the Transatlantic cruises, eastbound, won't be happening, therefore, the westbound cruises won't either.

 

Too bad, was looking forward to my December TA.  😒

[kwokpot]

51 minutes ago, All-ready2cruise said:

Thanks for posting this article. If this is true and gov't doesn't change it's mind, I guess the Transatlantic cruises, eastbound, won't be happening, therefore, the westbound cruises won't either.

 

Too bad, was looking forward to my December TA.  😒

Obviously timetables can be revised but at least now you can see what various European countries are currently proposing. You can at least think about contingency plans knowing it's more and a 50% chance that your cruise will be cancelled. I have a Greek Islands cruise from Rome in beginning of July on the Breakaway and seeing this initial plan there's no way that cruise will sail, even if they allow leisure travel earlier it probably wouldn't be until late fall at the earliest. We have no intentions of sailing, this is a family cruise with four cabins and with my parents who are 91 and 82. We will definitely wait until they cancel and request a full refund. The airfare will be the tricker part. If British Airways doesn't cancel we'll have to take future credit and who know if my parents will be able to travel next year?

[Comi.uy]

1 hour ago, kwokpot said:

Someone on another thread posted this article about Italy and a possible Phased timeline of reopening the country.

It shows leisure travel and no more border restrictions to be AFTER MARCH 31st, 2021

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/04/16/5e98b8d5ca4741bd688b45ab.html

Oh crap, well I booked a cruise that goes thru Italy on November. Guess it aint happening

[buckeyefrank]

2 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

Given that NCL is still trying to sell cruises they know won’t happen and is the last to cancel cruises it is pretty obvious that NCL is in dire straits. I would consider them the most likely to be liquidated.


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I never said they weren't in dire straights.   The comment I referred to was that buying stock in NCL is giving them cash.... it doesn't.  NCL doesn't get one red cent of cash from a stock purchase, unless it's an IPO, which they do not.

[seaman11]

On 4/19/2020 at 6:37 PM, Fartlek said:

Back to the original question if you will be sailing in June.  I would say there is a slight chance you will be sailing June 2022.  No way this year, very doubtful a year this June and only a small chance in 2022.  The risk and liability is too high until a vaccine is created and proven which is 18-24 months away.  The cruises industry will be the absolute last industry open.   

boy are you going to be shocked this summer.  already GA has reopened resturants and florida the parks and beaches. 

[Fartlek]

28 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

boy are you going to be shocked this summer.  already GA has reopened resturants and florida the parks and beaches. 

From what the experts say I think GA is Maia mistake and will probably have an increase in cases/deaths.  Myself, I have more trust in science than I do politicians.  I wish them luck but I’m not optimistic.  Time will tell.  

[Mrdodgy]

38 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

boy are you going to be shocked this summer.  already GA has reopened resturants and florida the parks and beaches. 

USA maybe but there will be no European cruises this year. 

 

I can assure you UK ports will not accept any cruises, Italy and Spain will remain closed. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to realise that we in Europe do not want the large cruise ships and I can see  ports being blockaded. 

 

As for 2022 - miles out if it got to that here would be no industry left!!!

 

NCL price down another 4.96% - Take it form me the Market knows there is an extension to no sail  coming. If they thought otherwise they would be cruising price would stabilise  it is in  decline. I am sorry but 40 years in the business and financial world leads to no other conclusion

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Mrdodgy

[kelib]

4 hours ago, seaman11 said:

boy are you going to be shocked this summer.  already GA has reopened resturants and florida the parks and beaches. 

First I apologize if this has come up since I have not read over 100 posts.

I see people talking about the Florida ports opening, but where would they go other than a private island IF the Bahamas would allow it.

i can’t see any of these small islands with small medical outlets allowing a ship with a few thousand people from the US being allowed to port.

I realize that many of these ports are in real need of money but it would only take one infected ship that could put their medical resources in a tail spin. 

[Charles4515]

First I apologize if this has come up since I have not read over 100 posts.

I see people talking about the Florida ports opening, but where would they go other than a private island IF the Bahamas would allow it.

i can’t see any of these small islands with small medical outlets allowing a ship with a few thousand people from the US being allowed to port.

I realize that many of these ports are in real need of money but it would only take one infected ship that could put their medical resources in a tail spin. 

 

Several have made that point that small Caribbean ports may not want cruise ships for a long time. Take the Bahamas for example. They are taking a hard line to keep potential infected people out. They are not allowing their own citizens who are abroad to return. Not much chance they will welcome cruise ships. Those private islands are pretty small. Not much chance for social distancing. Grand Stirrup and Half Moon Cay are tender ports. I was at CoCo Cay in January. Packed. Princess Cay is not actually an island. It is on Eleuthera which is populated.

 

 

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