SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[tosteve1]

I have always read the Times but in the last few years they have increasingly become negative about cruising and even travel in general. If you try to be positive about cruising in their comments section, you are met with outright hostility. And it’s not just about the virus. It’s about the environment and all sorts of political issues. It’s getting hard to read them every day. 
We’ll see what other countries do. Germany seems to be taking a rational approach.

[UKCruiseJeff]

13 minutes ago, tosteve1 said:

I have always read the Times but in the last few years they have increasingly become negative about cruising and even travel in general. If you try to be positive about cruising in their comments section, you are met with outright hostility. And it’s not just about the virus. It’s about the environment and all sorts of political issues. It’s getting hard to read them every day. 
We’ll see what other countries do. Germany seems to be taking a rational approach.

 

Hi,

 

I think your sentiments are very representative and understandable of most people who post on CC.  It is natural to congregate and welcome views that optimistically voice opinions that reassure and agree with people desperate to book cruises and also welcome less those that don't share the optimsim.   To describe those that are not as positive as "hostile" might be symptomatic.  Sensible people consider both sides of an issue.

 

I'm suprised there's been little or no discussion on the SS CC board of all places about what set of circumstances or plans or options might be implied when RCI acquired the remaining shares in Silversea and the controlling interests in SS  to do as it wishes - at a time when lines are scrapping or selling capacity ?  The timing presumably is intersting - no?   So what scenarios can you retro-fit that might rationally explain what seems a bewildering counter intuitive decision?  What might it mean for the SS fleet and brand given it's aging demographics, overheads and diem cost profile and customer profile against the Covid challenge?

 

There is also little discussion about how much runway is left for the weight of cruiselines to survive if they can reopen now.  Arguably implosion accelerates once you pass a tipping point along the runway where the expense of reopening and all the challenges that is tripped rapidly accelearates implosion rather than delays it.  What does that imply for the cost-effectiveness of the size of ship? A lot of fairly obvious and rational issues are triggered when you reopen.  Just think impartially about what it means in practice to reopen a cruiseline with a mandated less occupancy rate, increasing refunds, the ratio of number for farepayers versus FCC occupancy and the "peace of mind guarentees and the discounts you need to offer.  Calibrate in a reerve for all the unkowns of immediate lock-downs of port, airports, airlines and home destinations.  And the cost of getting staff back from all their homes to all the ports.  And what about provisioning and refueling.  For example. if you were a fuel supplier, would you be content fill a large cruise ship up with fuel on credit or would you demand cash on delivery?  In Europe it is not unknown for a captain to ask passengers to help pay for fuel to get home or use a persanal credit card. Rare but happens.

 

There has also been no alarm at the decision of the White House instructing hospitals to halt the sending of new infections and death figures of Covid to the CDC for daily publication in essence making the "facts" at the mercy of politics rather than independence. What does this mean for the future of the CDC?

 

Anyway it seems to me that it is understandable to long for reopening, but I don't think that realism which is seen by many as pessimism or hostility is necessarily productive or safe for the amounts of cash people are leaving in the hands of cruiselines.

 

When their are more questions than asnwers, sensible people considfer the questions and gaps.

 

 

[tosteve1]

Believe me, it was hostility. Some of those people would be quite happy to see the cruise industry cease to exist. Airlines, too.  I’m all for healthy skepticism and discussion but it was ridiculous.

[Tothesunset]

The cruise line industry will come out of this whole thing  (if it survives at all) as a very different industry. Not only will the amount of company debt be enormous even were cruising to restart tomorrow, as each month goes by that debt increases. Not all will survive. Just having a big name doesn't help. Woolworths? Lehmann Brothers? 

 

So while we like to cruise we will not give our cash to any potentially failing line. I don't think we are alone in that view which is another reason to think that the future of cruising is bleak. 

[UKCruiseJeff]

15 minutes ago, tosteve1 said:

Believe me, it was hostility. Some of those people would be quite happy to see the cruise industry cease to exist. Airlines, too.  I’m all for healthy skepticism and discussion but it was ridiculous.

 

Thanks,

 

From what you have said then you have taken a prudent and sensible approach.  I think there is hostility towards a lack of realism and a lack of tolerance rather than the industry per se but you as a regular reader rather than me as an irregular reader will be better informed. 

 

If it helps your sense of optimism, I believe that a shakeout in the industry is not only inevitable it has clearly started.  That might offer opportunities - not immediate - but after short-term pain - then in the long term might provide products that many people no longer see but yearn for.  A shakeout will offer an opportunity for imaginitive start-ups offering ultra-luxury high cost small ship experience which I have believed for a long time exists but isn't currently satisfied.

[Stumblefoot]

13 minutes ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

...an opportunity for imaginitive start-ups offering ultra-luxury high cost small ship experience which I have believed for a long time exists but isn't currently satisfied.

You may have answered this in prior years, but in your opinion, how would the product (hard and soft), along with F&B, and service be different than SS?  And, what would the entry level per diems be for say a Vista suite, or even an entry level Veranda suite?  I’m trying to imagine the cost/benefit relative to the incrementality of product/service improvement.

[Bluebelle14]

Does anyone know if the Silver Moon has launched?

[UKCruiseJeff]

9 minutes ago, Stumblefoot said:

You may have answered this in prior years, but in your opinion, how would the product (hard and soft), along with F&B, and service be different than SS?  And, what would the entry level per diems be for say a Vista suite, or even an entry level Veranda suite?  I’m trying to imagine the cost/benefit relative to the incrementality of product/service improvement.

 

I feel somewhat edgy about answering you, for reasons you perfectly understand but will do so in the hope it is asked in good faith. 

 

Not everyone wants the same thing.  But I think there is a product for people more concerned about quality than they are about the diem - obviously within reason.  I don't know what is the maximum price I'd spend only that I'm not prepared to buy what is currently available but would pay more for much more.

 

I have in mind the experience we first had with SS over many cruises predominently on Whisper and Shadow feeling that the smaller ships too small and the larger ones too large.  In essence it takes very little extra diem to vastly improve the on-board experience.  Our experience was always - for a long time - absolutely perfect.

 

So far as price and bookings are concerned, I'd prefer it to be an adults only line or adults only ships within the line - so that I know that issue is avoided.  When I book BA First I always ask if there is currently a bassinet seat reserved and have some times taken a different long-haul flight if there was.   To save time I'm an adult and understand that there might be adults that are unruly on board but as  I'd also like there to a be a guarantee of no large boookings - except perhaps elderly family groups will be taken - then I think I'd be looking forward to a cruise that is largely probably going to offer a reasonably certainty of a quiet pool and some quiet relaxtion. So I am saying I will not in future book with a line who reserves the right to accept large corporate bookings.  That wouldn't mean much to anyone who hasn't had a bad experience or two. 

 

I want to choose a a meal from a changing menu and I want to choose my own wine from a list when I order my meal. I want the food to not look like it is portioned and provisioned and repeated to keep costs down.  I want the food to pretty perfect ever time and lapses to be very rare rather than regular.  Hot cooked as requested and on a hot plate if it's a hot meal.  I want it to be served without unacceptable delays simply because a ship hasn't been staffed properly.

 

I'd like to have a concierge booking service employed by the cruise line who makes all the arrangements and knits in with personal limmo transfers if I wish to pay "extra" for the transfer over the coach experience.

 

On board I'd like a bit like what I currently get from Intercontinetal Hotels where it doesn't matter what hotel I go to - they know roughly how I like my suite laid out and what I want in my minibar. Whatever IC we go to the mini-bar will be set out with only what we prefer.  What on earth stops SS where I might spend a week or two with their profile and clever people doing the same thing as a hotel why I spend a few nights?   I'd like to possibly even choose a table for the current evening from  my suite from a graphic on the TV.  IC also know that I want the suite serviced every day between 12:00 and 14:00 and it is done at that time inevery hotel whether it is Paris, London, Cannes, Vienna, Istanbul, Athens, Singapore etc.  I experience that in every IC and I'd like the same on a ship. 

 

I do not want to be told how to dress - within reason.  I'll be smart, won't wear swimwear anywhere other than around the pool and will wear a jacket at night.    But outside of that I don't want to be told what to wear or want to cruise with people who think differently and take dress so seriously. I like relaxed smart informality.

 

If there is a problem on board I want it to be very rare but if there is an issue there must be a reliable instant way of resolving things rather than be told to wait til I get home and write to head office and then be fobbed off. I would like the line to pay staff ahead of all competitors.  I feel that the current method isn't right and I am more content to pay more if a line said with integrity that the people who we all know are low paid are paid more generously. 

 

In essence, I can travel to places and stay in decent hotels - or at home.  So being on a ship shouldn't deprive me of all the decent things I experience in my normal life.  It should be better in pretty much every way.  Not a complete answer but my answer.

 

These are my priorites and no doubt shared with relatively few others.

 

[Stumblefoot]

1 hour ago, Bluebelle14 said:

Does anyone know if the Silver Moon has launched?

No, it has not launched.  Based on pics I saw from inside this week, there is still much work ongoing.

 

 

[Bluebelle14]

Thanks...hope it's cruising in December.

[TLCOhio]

8 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

I have always read the Times but in the last few years they have increasingly become negative about cruising and even travel in general. If you try to be positive about cruising in their comments section, you are met with outright hostility. And it’s not just about the virus. It’s about the environment and all sorts of political issues. It’s getting hard to read them every day. We’ll see what other countries do. Germany seems to be taking a rational approach.

 

Appreciate this above comment about the NY Times and the other various follow-ups. Certain newspapers have a harder time these days separating out their "just the facts" type of reporting versus injecting their opinions as to what they view to be good or bad.  That Times article last night did play up and focus much more than average on the negative aspects in the CDC announcement.  Maybe deserved?  Maybe not?  There are certain issues, such as travel, where those in New York City and/or at this newspaper where their personal views as to what is good or bad does not always match the views of others in various parts of the nation or the world.   

 

Good to read the various perspective posted from Jeff in the UK about sailing, what people prefer and are seeking in quality and style, etc. There are a wide range of opinions as to when and how cruising resumes, its future pricing that is "reasonable", etc., etc.  Great summary point by Tothesunset saying "The cruise line industry will come out of this whole thing  (if it survives at all) as a very different industry."

 

From the Barron's business publication connected with the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Stocks Are Lower Because the CDC Made It Official: No Sailing This Summer” with some of these highlights: “The move was expected, but the stocks of the three big U.S. cruise operators were down by at least a percentage point in premarket trading Friday against a mostly higher broader market. Although there haven’t been any passenger sailings in recent months, the cruise operators have been using some of their ships to repatriate crew members to their home countries. Based on U.S. Coast Guard data as of July 10, there are 67 ships with 14,702 crew on board.  The cruise companies face headwinds to get their vessels back in the water for passenger sailings. 'If unrestricted cruise ship passenger operations were permitted to resume, passengers and crew on board would be at increased risk of Covid-19 infection,' the CDC said. It would also endanger health-care workers, port personnel and U.S. Coast Guard employees, among others, the health organization said.”

 

From the final stock market trading today, RCL was down 1.48%.  Carnival was down 1.96% today, while NCL dropped down 2.18%.  Overall, the Dow Jones average was down just a quarter of one percent today.  My reaction, given the CDC announcement last night, I was surprised that the stock values for the three major cruise lines did not drop down more.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-are-lower-because-the-cdc-made-it-official-no-sailing-this-summer-51594992096?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D30824181964225449033608035908703861035|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1595020889

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,726 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[brimary]

Agree in full with the summary of cruise requirements of UK Cruise Jeff.Thats why we have travelled SS for all our cruises apart from our first cruise on Princess line in 1997.

It was a disaster with 2000+ passengers ,hundreds of badly behaved kids,poor service at bars and restaurants queues for everything on the ship and getting on and off the ship.That first experience of cruising resulting in a friend advising we try SS rather than give up cruising after one voyage of disaster.We are forever grateful for the advice which led to twenty two years of a wonderful cruising experience with SS.My main fear now is that RC will return SS to their brand of mass market cruising.Hope I am wrong! The main problem for the cruising companies is that cruising involves visiting many countries as its basic product and countries throughout the World have all different exclusion policies as to who they will accept which must be a nightmare for Cruise Company Management to work round when trying to start up again.Hope our plans for late 2021 resumption with the old SS comes to fruition but have many doubts.

[TLCOhio]

3 hours ago, brimary said:

It was a disaster with 2000+ passengers ,hundreds of badly behaved kids, poor service at bars and restaurants queues for everything on the ship and getting on and off the ship.That first experience of cruising resulting in a friend advising we try SS rather than give up cruising after one voyage of disaster.  .My main fear now is that RC will return SS to their brand of mass market cruising.Hope I am wrong! The main problem for the cruising companies is that cruising involves visiting many countries as its basic product and countries throughout the World have all different exclusion policies as to who they will accept which must be a nightmare for Cruise Company Management to work round when trying to start up again. Hope our plans for late 2021 resumption with the old SS comes to fruition but have many doubts.

 

Appreciate this excellent above summary by brimary and the follow-up about the saga/challenges for sailing on large ships where things get too busy and crowded.  Agree that having a more "personal" style/size has many significant advantages.  But tends to cost more??!!  Big questions with the Silversea buy-out now completed and the efforts to re-start cruising for how this will affect the traditional quality/style we have loved from SS. 

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Travel Is Bouncing Back From Coronavirus, but Tourists Stick Close to Home” with this sub-headline: "Asia and Europe are seeing upturns; Covid-19 surge dims some enthusiasm in U.S."

 

Here are some of the story highlights: “In many parts of the world, travelers are out and about again. But they are staying closer to home, driving a welcomed rebound in tourism as few have the ability to venture off to faraway destinations. The coronavirus pandemic ripped a hole in the $9 trillion global tourism and travel industry. For months this spring, people could barely venture outdoors, let alone whisk away for vacation. That has created pent-up travel demand now getting uncorked locally as lockdowns lift and stimulus funds are dispersed.  'Travel will rebound sharply because people would like to celebrate a return to normality,' said Andreas Papatheodorou, an economist at Greece’s University of the Aegean who specializes in tourism.”

 

Here are more details reported in this story: "The travel and tourism industry, in a baseline scenario, was projected to decline this year by about 40%, or roughly $3.5 trillion, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, a trade group, in a June report. Foreign visitors would plunge by more than half, the group estimated, while domestic travelers would fall by one-third.  Australia hasn’t earmarked government dollars but it is making a public pitch. Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham suggested citizens had a 'patriotic duty' to travel locally. He pointed out the country’s projected lost revenue from foreign tourism of about $30 billion is a similar amount to what Australians spent on overseas jaunts last year.  Local government officials in Cornwall in England, a rural coastal county, said some 70,000 to 80,000 people arrived there on the weekend of July 4, many from cities such as Birmingham or London. The number of Americans planning foreign trips has dipped to the lowest this decade, according to consumer data released last month by the Conference Board, a New York-based business think tank."

 

Interesting reporting and trends from around the world.  This fits with what was predicted back in May for some of the initial cruises being shorter, maybe "cruises to nowhere", being filled with customers who are driving (not flying) to the ports, etc.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/travel-is-bouncing-back-from-coronavirus-but-tourists-stick-close-to-home-11595064589?mod=hp_lead_pos13

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic location. Over 47,384 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[brimary]

TLCOhio.......Thanks for the detailed update on the current cruising situation.Much appreciated in the UK where reliable information is hard to come by.Your reference to beautiful Cornwall in South West England is interesting as local TV reports of the 4 th July incidents showed some very small resorts being swamped with thousands of tourists releasing the pent up desire to get away after lockdown.Sadly the locals resented this invasion which caused some ugly scenes which thankfully have not been repeated.Even local hoteliers and business owners were pleading with people to stay away! Strange times which does not appear to have an end in sight yet.Keep hoping!!

[Randyk47]

21 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

No, it has not launched.  Based on pics I saw from inside this week, there is still much work ongoing.

 

 

Guess it goes to the definition of launched.  She’s floating and supposedly has been out for sea trials.   Marine Traffic website shows her being at the shipyard in Ancona, Italy.   

Edited July 18, 2020 by Randyk47

[Stumblefoot]

7 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

Guess it goes to the definition of launched.  She’s floating and supposedly has been out for sea trials.   Marine Traffic website shows her being at the shipyard in Ancona, Italy.   

Understood.  But, while the ship may be “floating” and conducted her “sea trials”, she still remains on the balance sheet of Fincantieri.  Until the Moon is delivered to Silversea and they take ownership of it, I would argue the ship has not launched yet.

[Will Work for Tiramisu]

Regarding viability of the cruise industry model going forward - I'm not a pro in this area, but I do know a bit about real estate.  We sometimes say what a property needs is a new owner; someone who doesn't have all the baggage and expectations of the current owner.  Another thing that is similar, is that sometimes buildings, (or cruise ship holding companies) need to "shed debt".   This isn't necessarily a pleasant process for current owners, but based on realities of the market going forward, a property (on land or floating), has a certain value, largely based on a) ability to generate capital in an ongoing way, and b) a sort of land-and-building value for what is constructed.  Land tends to hold value - building can come and go, and ships can be (and often are) scrapped.  Sometimes somebody has to sell at a big loss, and new people come in with a new stance and can make it work.  It happens all the time.  The old creative destruction thing.  

 

Methinks there are a lot of folks willing to plop down dough to cruise, and while the people who cruise will change, new peeps will step up to do so going forward.  There is and will be a viable industry to satisfy this desire, including for high end players, like Silver Seas, and a few others.  When and IF we get the corona virus behind us, God knows there will be a huge pent up demand which will give a nice boost to the cruise lines that can hang on.  Will there be a winnowing out lines?  Probably.  Will the whole enterprise roll up the pup tent?  I doubt it.  

[UKCruiseJeff]

8 hours ago, Will Work for Tiramisu said:

Regarding viability of the cruise industry model going forward - I'm not a pro in this area, but I do know a bit about real estate.  We sometimes say what a property needs is a new owner; someone who doesn't have all the baggage and expectations of the current owner.  Another thing that is similar, is that sometimes buildings, (or cruise ship holding companies) need to "shed debt".   This isn't necessarily a pleasant process for current owners, but based on realities of the market going forward, a property (on land or floating), has a certain value, largely based on a) ability to generate capital in an ongoing way, and b) a sort of land-and-building value for what is constructed.  Land tends to hold value - building can come and go, and ships can be (and often are) scrapped.  Sometimes somebody has to sell at a big loss, and new people come in with a new stance and can make it work.  It happens all the time.  The old creative destruction thing.  

 

Methinks there are a lot of folks willing to plop down dough to cruise, and while the people who cruise will change, new peeps will step up to do so going forward.  There is and will be a viable industry to satisfy this desire, including for high end players, like Silver Seas, and a few others.  When and IF we get the corona virus behind us, God knows there will be a huge pent up demand which will give a nice boost to the cruise lines that can hang on.  Will there be a winnowing out lines?  Probably.  Will the whole enterprise roll up the pup tent?  I doubt it.  

 

Hi,

 

At the moments of existential change, what hasn't been previously been changed ("if it ain't broken why fix it") is forced to change and the resulting recalibration often brings new fresh roots that become a rebirth, better and more robust. 

 

Silversea has a hugely valuable brand that is aspirational to many more people than have been fortunate enough to have experienced it and think they can afford it.  It however carries the weight of an aging demographic and the additional weight of smaller ships.  If - for example - some of the larger ships within the wider group were unviable and candidates for scrapping or selling but instead recalibrated for the SS brand and smaller ones lost then perhaps there is a model that becomes affordable to the younger aspirants and a new birth with potentially huge potential. RCI will make the promise that the SS quality will be the same, but their new customers will not have the point of experience to compare.  And it could be better than the other sibling brands. These new customers will be huge after lockdown and SS and RCI can afford to lose much of it's older SS base in exchange for that currently new untapped pent-up market. There is cash for cruises looking for a new exciting home.  Existential change may bring existential opportunity in imaginitive hands with exceptional visionary leadership.

 

A few days ago a survey (with enough participants to make it statistically reliable) found that 64% of Brits currently do not feel safe and confident in planning air travel.  This was up from 40% the previous month. People wanting to end all this are making most of the noise but may be in the minority.  I suspect that if you drill older people are higher than that in their fears and younger lower than that. 

 

Today the number of new Covid cases has hit an all time high of 260,000+.  When I look at the Times Square web cam I see it full of people ... loads of kids break dancing for instance.  I see a real difference between the way that Americans are responding to this and the way Brits are.

 

So far as cruise lines are concerned, there is a point along the runway where they haven't yet taken off but have taken on so much more weight trundling down the runway so that the furtther down the runway the Jumbo trundles, the more they increase the inevitable rather than decrease it.  It is the shoots that are left that should give optimism, not a belief that things as they are will be OK.

 

Have a good day all from a still largely locked down UK ....

[TLCOhio]

On 7/18/2020 at 9:59 AM, brimary said:

TLCOhio.......Thanks for the detailed update on the current cruising situation.Much appreciated in the UK where reliable information is hard to come by. Your reference to beautiful Cornwall in South West England is interesting as local TV reports of the 4 th July incidents showed some very small resorts being swamped with thousands of tourists releasing the pent up desire to get away after lockdown. Sadly the locals resented this invasion which caused some ugly scenes which thankfully have not been repeated. Even local hoteliers and business owners were pleading with people to stay away! Strange times which does not appear to have an end in sight yet. Keep hoping!!

 

Appreciate these above nice comments and details in the U.K. from brimary.  Glad to be of help in sharing some of the stories and news affecting the cruise industry and the challenges ahead for some form of a future re-opening.  

 

Great follow-ups from Jeff in the UK and Will Work for Tiramisu as to how the cruise lines might look and position themselves for later this year and in 2021.  Interesting comparison to how "real estate" is re-imagined and might need fresher or different looks/operations.  Fascinating polling from Jeff about "A few days ago a survey found that 64% of Brits currently do not feel safe and confident in planning air travel."

 

From the a newspaper in India and the French-based AFP news service today, they had this headline: “Stranded on ships, 200,000 seafarers struggle in coronavirus limbo” with these highlights: “Indian ship worker Tejasvi Duseja is desperate to go home after months stranded offshore by coronavirus border closures and lockdowns that have left more than 200,000 seafarers in limbo. From engineers on cargo ships to waiters on luxury cruise liners, ocean-based workers around the world have been caught up in what the United Nations warns is a growing humanitarian crisis that has been blamed for several suicides. Many have been trapped on vessels for months after their tours were supposed to end as travel restrictions disrupted normal crew rotations. Seafarers typically work for six to eight months at a stretch before disembarking and flying back to their home countries, with new crews taking their place.  But as the deadly virus whipped around the world and paralysed international travel, that was suddenly impossible. Philippine luxury cruise ship technician Cherokee Capajo spent nearly four months on ships without setting foot on land due to virus shutdowns. Filipinos account for around a quarter of the world's seafarers. About 80,000 of them are stranded because of the pandemic, according to Philippine authorities.”

 

As much as we want to get back to flying, exploring, etc., it is good to remember, also, about the impact still going on now for these many crew members.  All of us have had our cruise experience significantly impacted in a super positive manner by helpful and wonderful crew members as we sailed in different parts of the world.  That slowness to resume operations is much about the earlier and current negative impacts on crew members.  That is a big part of what is slowing the CDC in being willing to giving a "green light" to resume cruise ship operations. Maybe in October?  Or, it could require a longer time-frame and have it done with very different rules to allow a type of re-opening in such more limited manner?

 

Full story at:

https://www.dhakatribune.com/world/2020/07/19/stranded-on-ships-200-000-seafarers-struggle-in-coronavirus-limbo

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 35,665 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

[TLCOhio]

From the major trade publication Adweek two days ago, they had this headline to raise this important issue: “Ship Capacity Is the Cruise Industry’s Airplane Middle Seat” with this sub-head: "Cruise lines are figuring out passenger capacity and other safety measures."   Their story had what they labeled as their "key insight":  "There's disagreement within the cruise industry about whether ships can sail profitably with fewer passengers."

 

Here are some their story highlights: “Though it may not have been their intent, airlines have started competing on safety protocols. Delta and JetBlue have blocked out middle seats, while American Airlines announced that it would be walking back its limit on passenger capacity.  United Airlines never had such a limit in the first place—CEO Scott Kirby calling blocked seats a PR move.  In the cruise industry, the conversation about safety is beginning to drift toward what passenger capacity will be when ships are allowed to resume sailing. Unlike airlines, which were never grounded, cruise lines haven’t been able to welcome guests since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention instituted a No Sail Order in March.”

 

Here is more from their reporting to how it is affecting cruises: "Passenger capacity will be 'adjusted'.  'We’re going to start slow,' said Arnold Donald, Carnival’s CEO and president, during the brand’s earnings call last week. 'Initially, we’ll probably start at less than 50% occupancy as we work out the details.'  The company noted that a ship’s break-even point is somewhere between 30% and 50% capacity. Even with less than half of its normal passenger count, Carnival could still make a 'significant' amount of money, according to Donald.   Frank Del Rio, the CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line, told The Financial Times that lowered capacity would be a 'severe blow' to the business. Royal Caribbean CEO Richard Fain, in a talk with travel advisers, said his cruise line would reduce capacity to some degree."

 

In this article, they had this quote from  Bob Levinson, CEO of a major booking site that specializes in the cruise industry:   “I don’t see how having fewer people on the ship really makes that much of a difference.  You can spread out dining times, you can spread out tables, but at the end of the day, I think it’ll be driven by negotiations with the CDC.”

 

Yes, those "negotiations with the CDC" will be a major future factor affecting the re=opening plan!!  Agree that cruise ships can sail at lower occupancy with fewer crew members.  But, will that affect the cruise experience and/or quality?  What services and features will be kept?  What will be cut out?  Entertainers?  Speakers?  Servers?  Kitchen workers?  Bartenders? Room staff?

 

Full story at:

https://www.adweek.com/brand-marketing/cruise-lines-ship-capacity-airplane-middle-seat-covid-19-social-distancing/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 30,804 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

Edited July 19, 2020 by TLCOhio

[tosteve1]

Prices will go up.

[TLCOhio]

10 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

Prices will go up.

 

Excellent above comment and follow-up by our friend in North Carolina.  Yes, the laws of economics can be at play as cruise lines seek to recover and operate at a lower capacity.  Prices could be going up.  BUT, to attract "concerned consumers", they will need to do some "selling" that can involve pricing gimmicks and extras being thrown into the package.  Many unknowns and questions are ahead??!! 

 

From Reuters newswire this morning, they had this headline: “Oxford COVID-19 vaccine developer cautious on 2020 roll-out” with these highlights: “The University of Oxford’s possible COVID-19 vaccine could be rolled out by the end of the year but there is no certainty, the lead developer of the vaccine said on Tuesday.  The experimental vaccine, which has been licensed to AstraZeneca (AZN.L), produced an immune response in early-stage clinical trials, data showed on Monday, preserving hopes it could be in use by the end of 2020.  'The end of the year target for getting vaccine roll-out, it’s a possibility but there’s absolutely no certainty about that because we need three things to happen,' Sarah Gilbert told BBC Radio.She said it needed to be shown to work in late-stage trials, there needed to be large quantities manufactured, and regulators had to agree quickly to license it for emergency use before large numbers of people could be vaccinated.”

 

On TV this morning and through many other news sources, this Oxford story is gaining wide attention.  Many hope that one or more successful vaccines can be one of the key signs and/or "hooks" that it is safe to resume sailing and travel.  But, questions continue as to when these vaccines will be available on a mass scale, how large of a percentage of the population will get this preventative tool and how effective/long will such vaccines provided serious protection.  Hopeful news, but still a long way to go??

 

Full story at:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-oxford-vaccine-gil-idUSKCN24M0OP

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 29,967 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[TLCOhio]

From USA Today yesterday, they had this headline: “Cruise ships pose risk for 'amplified,' 'scattered' COVID-19 community spread, CDC official says” with these highlights: “Cruise ships' close-contact environments increase the risk of spreading infectious diseases as we've been reminded by multiple COVID-19 outbreaks on ships this year. And the risk of spreading disease doesn't stop when passengers disembark. Along with last week's announcement that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would suspend sailings through the end of September, the agency also shared some sobering data about COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships.  Most strikingly, it revealed the breadth of contact tracing that was done after some 11,000 passengers and crew members left ships that experienced outbreaks. The CDC said in its report that the legwork required 'countless hours' of work by public health officials. The report noted the CDC has expended an estimated 38,000 person-hours on the COVID-19 cruise ship response since March 14, though it's unclear how many of those were devoted to contact tracing.”

 

Here is another angle/concern raised in this reporting: "The results also confirmed some port officials' concernsthat cruise ships pose a danger to the shoreside public when it comes to community spread of infectious COVID-19 due to the nature of cruisers' journeys: Coming from across the globe to spend a period of time in a close-contact environment, then dispersing and putting anyone else in cruisers' paths at risk shoreside."

 

Full story at:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/07/20/cruises-amplify-scatter-covid-19-spread-risk-per-cdc-official/5457585002/

 

To review full CDC order, details, check here at:

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships-Second-Extension_07_16_2020-p.pdf

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 18,546 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

[TLCOhio]

For those hoping that the re-opening of cruising will be soon, this story below might not be good news.   

 

From the Miami Herald this evening, they had this headline: “Princess Cruises cancels cruises through mid-December citing COVID-19, months past CDC ban” with these highlights: “Princess Cruises ships will not be cruising from U.S. ports until at least Dec. 16.  The company announced Wednesday it is canceling cruises worldwide until then, except for cruises in Australia, which are canceled until Nov. 1 due to 'the continued progression of COVID-19 and related decisions of various government, health authorities, and airlines regarding travel restrictions.”

 

Princes is a part of the massive Carnival group, but once one major line cancels for early October through mid-December, there will likely be other cruise lines that follow this lead. 

 

Full story at:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article244418237.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed last summer Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog at: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[Randyk47]

All I can say in public is  ugh.   Can’t say I didn’t expect the decision but reality sometimes sucks.   

Edited July 23, 2020 by Randyk47