Regent raised $2B - what happens next?

[Travelcat2]

Just read the good news on another thread.  Since there are multiple threads about concerns of bankruptcy, it seems that a thread for Regent going forward makes sense.  I likely won't post much on this thread but am very interested in reading comments (the more factual the better)!

[greykitty]

I'll play - or rather, ask opinions from the season cruisers who lived through other PE investment eras.  Now that a private equity firm has a significant stake in NCLH, what organizational changes do you foresee based on past experience?  Any that will significantly affect your experience?  

[mrlevin]

PE is a medium term investment; and they want to make good money.   I imagine NCLH will be restructured and I would hazard to guess that not all 28 ships nor nine on order will be around by time the PE investor sells out.  They can't cost cut their way to a profit, necessarily, as that can lead to a death spiral (remember Peoples Express?).

 

Marc

[Pcardad]

They only invested $400M and have 1 seat on the board - not sure how much input they will have.

[greykitty]

Pcardad, I think I asked you this on another thread....have you ever heard of a PE firm that's a passive investor?  They'll want a profit....question is how will they get it.  I tend to agree with MrLevin that a restructuring is on the way, and that the NCLH fleet, present and future, may look quite different fairly soon.

 

Another poster on another thread kindly provided some history of last time a PE firm invested - it appears management changes happened very rapidly at that time.  Perhaps another era, perhaps another PE approach.  

Edited May 6, 2020 by greykitty

[Steve Q]

This is very good news. We were really looking forward to our first Regent cruise this month. While we were very disappointed, we will definitely try again when cruising returns. 

[Pcardad]

5 minutes ago, greykitty said:

Pcardad, I think I asked you this on another thread....have you ever heard of a PE firm that's a passive investor?  They'll want a profit....question is how will they get it.  I tend to agree with MrLevin that a restructuring is on the way, and that the NCLH fleet, present and future, may look quite different fairly soon.

 

Another poster on another thread kindly provided some history of last time a PE firm invested - it appears management changes happened very rapidly at that time.  Perhaps another era, perhaps another PE approach.  

 

That instance involved a very large ownership stake - this instance is does not.

 

Let's get some facts before we go off on another tangent based on worst case scenarios.

[Portolan]

Just to clarify, the article says NCLH has raised $2B...not quite the "Regent raised $2B" thread title.

[mrlevin]

There is probably someone that is a much better number cruncher than me; I think that with all the new debt added; even if NCLH is as profitable in 2021 as last year, there will not be enough free cash flow to service the debt incurred; especially after all the ship loans that have suspended payments for a year start becoming due again next spring.  At some point, selective ships will have to be turned over to creditors or equity will need to be further diluted or larger share for PE or they will significantly have to lower operating costs or all of the above.

 

Marc

[pappy1022]

12 minutes ago, Portolan said:

Just to clarify, the article says NCLH has raised $2B...not quite the "Regent raised $2B" thread title.

Very important. Thank you for bringing that fact into the conversation. NCLH is holding $1.8 billion in customers’ deposits. One of the wild cards as to where they spend their cash is how many customers go for refunds vs FCC’s. 

[greykitty]

I take this as a speculative thread for any and all thoughts.  At least until some hard data comes through. 

[orvil]

I read elsewhere that NCLH said it was about a 50/50 split between booked passengers asking for full refunds versus future cruises with FCC.  That's $800,000,000. This number will include both confirmed cancelled cruises and future potential cruise cancellations.

 

Let's assume that 50% of the cruise portfolio has already cancelled and 50% of them want their money back.

 

That's $400,000,00 that must be returned in the next 90 days across the entire NCLH and includes RSSC.  That is a lot of money for a company that has essentially ceased operations with no firm start up date identified.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by orvil

[Pcardad]

Don't forget to add in new money bookings - they exist.

 

[Travelcat2]

1 hour ago, Portolan said:

Just to clarify, the article says NCLH has raised $2B...not quite the "Regent raised $2B" thread title.

 

I stand (or sit) corrected.  In my excitement, all that I could think about was Regent and now it is too late to correct it.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

I do feel relieved by this, and feel fairly content that we will get our refund back, in the fullness of time.  

 

Lots and lots of folks have chosen FCC's, and that's good for current cashflow, and for future revenue IFF those cruises actually materialize.  Lots of fingers cross, since I do want to travel again someday, but I'm not willing to risk that money any time soon.

[Travelcat2]

Wendy - do hope that you can travel again someday....... maybe even the 2022 WC?  We are booked through October, 2021 but aren't ready to book 2022.  

 

Yesterday really challenged my ability to stay positive.  It was reaching out to other CC'ers (via email or phone) that kept me from canceling cruises.  I'm thankful that they were there to vent to and get their perspectives.  I also felt good when I reached out to a few people at Regent to let them now that we are thinking of them during this difficult time and sent them positive thoughts.  For me, helping others and reaching out to people that I do not normally reach out to is the best thing that I can do for my mental health.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Travelcat2

[Pcardad]

1 minute ago, Travelcat2 said:

Wendy - do hope that you can travel again someday....... maybe even the 2022 WC?  We are booked through October, 2021 but aren't ready to book 2022.  

 

Yesterday really challenged my ability to stay positive.  It was reaching out to other CC'ers (via email or phone) that kept me from canceling cruises.  I'm thankful that there were there to vent to and get their perspectives.  I also felt good when I reached out to a few people at Regent to let them now that we are thinking of them during this difficult time and sent them positive thoughts.  For me, helping others and reaching out to people that I do not normally reach out to is the best thing that I can do for my mental health.

 

 

 

Excellent thinking. Separating emotion from business decisions is not always easy...but it helps in making the best possible choice. Facts may not feel as strong as emotions but they are almost always more accurate.

[irishwitchy]

I will give everyone a very different perspective.  I called my 33 year old daughter this morning, who is happily married with two kids and is a special needs pre-school teacher.  She was crying, why because this is the second time, she has been in a school district and at the point to be tenured where she has received great evaluations and has been told - sorry you aren’t coming back next year.   There is a bit more to this story, but I’m keeping it brief and why anyone wants to teach in NJ is beyond me. 
 

However,  about four hours learning about my daughter,  we got a call about my niece,  who is 56 and has two sons - one autistic and the other a  senior in high school this year.  She had breast cancer about 13 years ago,  and very sadly was diagnosed this morning with metastatic breast cancer -  not good.  She spent 25 years as a Newark, NJ policewomen. 

 

Regent owes me a big pile of money and I hope I see it,  but if I could fix the above family issues with that cash,  please sign me up.  Needless to say the virus is not making any of this better for any of us.   Needed to vent. 

[Travelcat2]

Irishwitchy - so sorry to learn about your family.  This does put things into perspective for all of us.  

[bissel]

Irishwitchy, I’m sorry to read of your hard family situations. These are such difficult times indeed. I’m very touched by your post and wish you all better times ahead.

[irishwitchy]

Thanks  TravelCat and Bessel,  the family is much more important than the trip or the money.  

[bissel]

No question about that. I hope things will get better for all.

[pappy1022]

My prayers are with you. 

[greykitty]

Irishwitchy, my thoughts are with you and your family.   And I will hope all refunds due you come through swiftly and without question to provide some material  help through these challenges.  

[Mudhen]

Sending all possible good Karma and vibrations your way, Irishwitchy. Stay strong!