September Restart in Europe?

[york survey]

First of all this is TOTAL guess work but i'm starting to think a September start in Europe is the more practical solution!

 

Lets have a look at what we already know for interviews with the CEO of Royal, Carnival and Norwegian

 

1. The current startup date is 1st August is very unlikely to be achieved as no start up plans have yet been approved by the CDC indeed CDC have yet to supply any details of their requirements

2. Cruises are likely to start in Europe and Asia first as these areas are considered, in general, ahead of the US and South America in controlling the virus

3. Initially cruises will sail below capacity to ensure social distancing

4. Newer ships will be returned to service first as they need less people to break even or make a profit (some as low as 30% capacity needed) 

5. Shorter cruises are likely to return first and be less susceptible to passengers cancelling

6. Round trip cruises are likely to return first because at lease some passengers can drive to the port

7. Changes to ports of call should be expected

8. Moving empty ships around the world is expensive.

9. Flying could remain a problem making the number of bookings from local residents more critical in deciding which cruises start first.

10. It will be extremely difficult to sell new cruises at short notice in the current circumstances

 

So what do I expect.

 

1. No cruises will take place in US waters or from US ports until the start of the Caribbean season in October/November. The CDC will just not get it's act together in time and the virus will not be controlled to a level where enough people are confident to cruise

2. No further empty ship movements will happen as most ships are in the correct place for a restart already.

3. Europe will start first but not until September to avoid the longer summer cruises and restaff the ships

4. Constellation (currently off Greece) return to service first completing a late summer part season in the Med before moving to the Caribbean as planned

5. Infinity will return from India (returning Crew) and also finish it's late summer Med season prior to heading back to the Caribbean

6. Apex will replace Silhouette from early September and run out of Southampton. She is already in Northern France just 200 miles away and Southampton has the largest number of "drive to" cruisers outside the US

7. Silhouettes South America Season will be cancelled and she will run short 3 or 4 day cruises out of Florida from as soon as the CDC permit.

8. Millennium, Eclipse and Solstice. Will restart in the Far East/Australia in the fall

 

As I said - Just wild guesses. I'm sure you have you own ideas and of course "ONLY TIME WILL TELL"

 

Stuart

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Miaminice]

33 minutes ago, york survey said:

3. Europe will start first but not until September to avoid the longer summer cruises and restaff the ships

 

I am with you that cruises will start first anywhere but the US and therefore Caribbean.
At places which are further ahead in fighting the virus plus which are not under CDC jurisdiction.
Reading and listening between the lines of various statements of the CEOs etc. shows as much.

Europe, especially after the opening of some countries, will be one of the first. However, also (and maybe sooner) China and Asia. A hint for that was already given at the earnings call. Royal´s short cruises maketed in China might even beat Europe.

Some cruise lines in Europe are already starting to offer cruises - Le Ponant will start July 4th.
River Cruises will start even sooner. Sea Dream offers cruises in Norway - for Norwegians only.

 

At the moment I am doubtful thar Celebrity and Royal will start in Europe by September.
No onboard protocols have been introduced so far.

Also, many passengers of Celebrity etc. are Americans. I am not sure when the EU will let Americans in again for tourism. Given the numbers and still steeply rising curve in the US, I think that will take a while.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[york survey]

4 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

I am with you that cruises will start first anywhere but the US and therefore Caribbean.
At places which are further ahead in fighting the virus plus which are not under CDC jurisdiction.
Reading and listening between the lines of various statements of the CEOs etc. shows as much.

Europe, especially after the opening of some countries, will be one of the first. However, also (and maybe sooner) China and Asia. A hint for that was already given at the earnings call. Royal´s short cruises maketed in China might even beat Europe.

Some cruise lines in Europe are already starting to offer cruises - Le Ponant will start July 4th.
River Cruises will start even sooner. Sea Dream offers cruises in Norway - for Norwegians only.

 

At the moment I am doubtful thar Celebrity and Royal will start in Europe by September.
No onboard protocols have been introduced so far.

Also, many passengers of Celebrity etc. are Americans. I am not sure when the EU will let Americans in again for tourism. Given the numbers and still steeply rising curve in the US, I think that will take a while.

 

I think we are on the same page

 

Agree that Royal's short cruises in Asia will be first but I was trying to focus on Celebrity

I also agree that Americans will either not want to travel to the EU or will not be permitted in withing this timeline.

 

So the hottest tip of all (for Celebrity) would be a start in September with Apex from Southampton. Southampton is the only Europe port that gets enough local passengers to make the cruise viable, Apex is still in the ship yard in Saint Nazaire so any adjustments could be done quickly

 

Of course I still stand by my other guesses - but time will tell

[Fly and Sail]

If any cruise will become available in Europe I'll be on it per short notice booking. If not... tough luck. Moved my itineraries to mid-2021 because this salami tactic guessing game ended up driving me nuts.

[Miaminice]

15 minutes ago, york survey said:

So the hottest tip of all (for Celebrity) would be a start in September with Apex from Southampton. Southampton is the only Europe port that gets enough local passengers to make the cruise viable, Apex is still in the ship yard in Saint Nazaire so any adjustments could be done quickly

 

I have a heard time believing that the UK will be ready by then.... 😉

Rome and Barcelona (as paradox as it sounds) might be further ahead later in the year.
Personally we are traveling to Venice for a weekend in July. However, we´d be hesitant to travel to London (DW´s old home).

 

PS: we still have a cruise booked on Reflection for September. Not betting any money on it though.
We have already booked the same itinerary for next year.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[ipeeinthepool]

Nope, not going to happen like that.  Cruises from Europe won't be viable unless US passengers can get to Europe and international flights aren't close to restarting.  First cruises for Celebrity will be from the US and go to Mexico. Royal may use Galveston.   Plenty of the US can drive to those ports.

[BigAl94]

Cunard cancels sailings till November https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-cunard-cruise-line-cancelled-november-a9555991.html

[groryjm]

58 minutes ago, york survey said:

6. Apex will replace Silhouette from early September and run out of Southampton. She is already in Northern France just 200 miles away and Southampton has the largest number of "drive to" cruisers outside the US

 Stuart 

 

Why would Celebrity cancel already booked cruises out of Barcalona when Spain has announced it is oppening up for tourism from July? I agree that Apex will probably sail in Europe this year and probably from August but I doubt X will change it's already booked Itineraries.

[york survey]

1 minute ago, groryjm said:

 Stuart 

 

Why would Celebrity cancel already booked cruises out of Barcalona when Spain has announced it is oppening up for tourism from July? I agree that Apex will probably sail in Europe this year and probably from August but I doubt X will change it's already booked Itineraries.

 

Fair point as changes cost money.

 

It's only a guess but..... Celebrity are more likely to get the required minimum number of passengers from Southampton then Barcelona.  Also my assumptions have Constellation and Infinity restarting in the Med at the same time - where there is a more limited demand

 

Stuart

[Miaminice]

37 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Nope, not going to happen like that.  Cruises from Europe won't be viable unless US passengers can get to Europe and international flights aren't close to restarting.  First cruises for Celebrity will be from the US and go to Mexico. Royal may use Galveston.   Plenty of the US can drive to those ports.

 

You do realize that there are not just Americans on board of Celebrity ships?!

 

European cruises have a large number of passengers from UK, EU, Australia etc.
Combining the fact that they will not sail at full capacity at first and the fact that (depending on ship) they only need 30 - 50 % capacity to break even, plus the fact that they´d be allowed to sail in Europe (and Asia) and not the US, it´s likely that they will start outside of the US first. 

If you listened to the earnings call, you might have heard the hint for that. China cruises (Royal) were mentioned in particular.

 

In a nutshell: wherever they can make some money first.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[madmacs]

I can't see Celebrity operating out of Southampton in September. UK based companies P&O and Cunard have cancelled all cruises  until mid October and November respectively and Princess have cancelled their European season. Effectively Celebrity would be the only company with large ships offering cruises from Southampton this summer or even early Autumn - can't see it. Hope I am wrong as we are booked on Silhouette in early October.

 

[york survey]

1 minute ago, madmacs said:

I can't see Celebrity operating out of Southampton in September. UK based companies P&O and Cunard have cancelled all cruises  until mid October and November respectively and Princess have cancelled their European season. Effectively Celebrity would be the only company with large ships offering cruises from Southampton this summer or even early Autumn - can't see it. Hope I am wrong as we are booked on Silhouette in early October.

 

 

I look at it the other way round. With all the other main lines cancelling out of Southampton this increases the opportunity for Celebrity to pick up some local passengers. Helping them to make the required load factors - Take market share 

 

I believe they could easily get to the 30% required for Apex without our American friends (I'll add that it would be a shame as the best cruises are the multi national ones)

 

PS I'm also on the Silhouette this back end - 9th October!!

[ipeeinthepool]

45 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

You do realize that there are not just Americans on board of Celebrity ships?!

 

European cruises have a large number of passengers from UK, EU, Australia etc.
Combining the fact that they will not sail at full capacity at first and the fact that (depending on ship) they only need 30 - 50 % capacity to break even, plus the fact that they´d be allowed to sail in Europe (and Asia) and not the US, it´s likely that they will start outside of the US first. 

If you listened to the earnings call, you might have heard the hint for that. China cruises (Royal) were mentioned in particular.

 

In a nutshell: wherever they can make some money first.

 

 

Even cruises in Europe have had a majority of American passengers.  I'm not sure about the Chinese market but I thought that I have read that the Chines cruises were dominated by non-Chinese guests.  If that's the case, it won't make sense to operate cruises from China before international air travel resumes.

 

I doubt the break even point is anywhere close to 30% - 50%, the first couple of cruises may be near 50%, but after that they will need to increase the capacity so that they don't lose more money by sailing.

Edited June 9, 2020 by ipeeinthepool

[PelicanLvr]

Here in New York it's hard to believe any cruising will begin this year.....but I sure hope you are all right.    

 

Fingers crossed and watching with optimism!!

[york survey]

10 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Even cruises in Europe have had a majority of American passengers.  I'm not sure about the Chinese market but I thought that I have read that the Chines cruises were dominated by non-Chinese guests.  If that's the case, it won't make sense to operate cruises from China before international air travel resumes.

 

I doubt the break even point is anywhere close to 30% - 50%, the first couple of cruises may be near 50%, but after that they will need to increase the capacity so that they don't lose more money by sailing.

 

I agree that European Celebrity cruises still have a majority of American passengers but Southampton carries a much higher number of UK residents. I think more then the 30% required but just a guess. Furthermore this could increase as the competition have just about called it a day!!

 

The 30% minimum passengers to break even has been confirmed by the Royal CEO

[chemmo]

Well, even if Celebrity were ready for a cruise from Southampton this September/October we wouldn’t be...

 

Holidays are about switching off, relaxing, enjoying company...I honestly don’t think we would feel safe enough right now and I think many Brits will feel the same as us. If the U.K. situation continues to improve local tourism will, I think, be the one to profit and even then I think many will choose the self catering option rather that hotels....

 

It is sad, we were booked on the Silhouette in October, we had used the excuse of our 40th wedding anniversary to book the PH....We swapped a few weeks ago to the same cruise next year, glad we did the suites are disappearing fast...

 

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by chemmo

[BigAl94]

5 minutes ago, york survey said:

 

I agree that European Celebrity cruises still have a majority of American passengers but Southampton carries a much higher number of UK residents. I think more then the 30% required but just a guess. Furthermore this could increase as the competition have just about called it a day!!

 

The 30% minimum passengers to break even has been confirmed by the Royal CEO

 The reasons  that the competition are not cruising will also be the reasons that Celebrity won't either.

[Miaminice]

40 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Even cruises in Europe have had a majority of American passengers.  I'm not sure about the Chinese market but I thought that I have read that the Chines cruises were dominated by non-Chinese guests.  If that's the case, it won't make sense to operate cruises from China before international air travel resumes.

 

I doubt the break even point is anywhere close to 30% - 50%, the first couple of cruises may be near 50%, but after that they will need to increase the capacity so that they don't lose more money by sailing.

 

Several cruises are marketed in China / Asia only and the ships have been especially remodelled according to Chinese taste (Quantum class) because of the mainly/almost exclusive Chinese clientele.

Same with other cruise lines. NCL Joy was specifically built to cater to Chinese taste.

Anyway, Royal´s management mentioned that the Chinese offices are already getting prepared. So I am more confident in cruises starting there first before Europe and the US at last.

 

The information about the break even point being 30% in newer, more fuel efficient,  and 50% in older ships has been stated/published by CFO Jason T. Liberty and CEO Richard Fain. You will find plenty of Europeans willing to fill those 30/50% - including me 🙂

 

For info on both subjects I suggest you search for the recording or scripts of the earning call. 
 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[york survey]

15 minutes ago, BigAl94 said:

 The reasons  that the competition are not cruising will also be the reasons that Celebrity won't either.

 

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty - Winston Churchill

 

[Pushka]

There won't be any Australians onboard any ships until November at the earliest. We can't even get out of Australia at the moment. 

[Miaminice]

1 minute ago, york survey said:

 

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty - Winston Churchill

 

 

Stuart, the combination of your two assumptions - September and Southampton - does not provide a lot of options re destinations.

Like I said my guess is that cruises starting earlier in Europe than in the US is possible and likely.

Focussing on Celebrity I don´t really agree on Southampton or September. But I guess we´ll all have to wait and see 🙂 

[Algebralovr]

Please remember that Apex has not yet been delivered to Celebrity just yet.  While some of the crew had joined her to get her ready, Celebrity has not yet taken possession, so she is not yet owned by Celebrity.  They will have a bit of work to get her operational.

[york survey]

2 minutes ago, Algebralovr said:

Please remember that Apex has not yet been delivered to Celebrity just yet.  While some of the crew had joined her to get her ready, Celebrity has not yet taken possession, so she is not yet owned by Celebrity.  They will have a bit of work to get her operational.

 

Celebrity took delivery in a virtual ceremony on 27th of March but your right in that it's still at the yard. Could be in the ideal place to fit any adjustments needed for the post coronavirus world

[pumpkin 11]

1 hour ago, york survey said:

 

I look at it the other way round. With all the other main lines cancelling out of Southampton this increases the opportunity for Celebrity to pick up some local passengers. Helping them to make the required load factors - Take market share 

 

I believe they could easily get to the 30% required for Apex without our American friends (I'll add that it would be a shame as the best cruises are the multi national ones)

 

PS I'm also on the Silhouette this back end - 9th October!!

I'm American and I agree. P&O and Cunard are hedging their bets but august is still 2 months away.

[pumpkin 11]

Carnival still hasn't announced they're canceling their US home port cruises in August. Other than the CDCs rules, there isn't much stopping cruising atm. I think if they announce a hard start date, August, Sept, or Oct, bookings will shoot up. There is pent up demand even if we have some people here thinking otherwise. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by pumpkin 11