No more october sailings

[naxer]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

So do you think they will be financially secure till May 2021?

 

Secure is a strong word.  But I think they will be able to limp through.  (I come to my conclusions after many years of study at Cliff Clavin University, with a PhD in Speculative Opinions After A Couple Beers.). I also think, with the current trajectory, that's about when cruising will start up again.

[glentally]

21 hours ago, drsel said:

We all miss cruising
I just hope the cruise lines do not run out of cash, without having any income and huge expenses for 8 months

Yes a valid concern.  What about all the OBC and FCC that will be applied once it starts back up.  What cash infusion will keep the ships going?

[naxer]

17 minutes ago, glentally said:

Yes a valid concern.  What about all the OBC and FCC that will be applied once it starts back up.  What cash infusion will keep the ships going?

 

I was wondering that too. In the replacement cruises I'm looking at, there is limited stateroom choices.  Is that from rebooking? If it is, that's a lot of OBC.    

[Roger88]

In my opinion sailing in October should be just alright but again World health organization says that there might be another wave in the Autumn so may be very risky. Unless there is no other way to spend your holdiay or vacation - cruising will be alright. But again, I would ve very cautious. Stay safe 

[rwdtgb]

They were gone for a few hours then re appeared

[xDisconnections]

Carnival will be sailing on October 1. They simply made a mistake with the suggestion of an August 1 restart date. The brand ambassador said in his live announcement video on Monday that Covid will be gone in October and the suspension of operations will be ended. Carnival cannot wait to welcome you back onboard in October.

[drsel]

Yes a valid concern.  What about all the OBC and FCC that will be applied once it starts back up.  What cash infusion will keep the ships going?

They will rely on debt to pull through, until they start getting fresh money.

 

I sincerely hope that they can raise fresh borrowings at reasonable interest rates, considering that Carnivals rating has just been downgraded by three levels from BBB- to BB- or junk status

 

[soapbxking]

could be there are going to limit number pf persons on those early sailings.

[soapbxking]

Disconnections.....yes please and thank you  🙂

[Organized Chaos]

On 6/23/2020 at 3:04 AM, drsel said:

So do you think they will be financially secure till May 2021?

 

Moot point. The shutdown is not going to last until May, 2021.

 

When people thought they were going to begin sailing starting Aug. 1, August bookings alone went through the roof. Bookings for 2021 are also up. That comes from Donald himself. There's a user on here who's good friends with a Carnival CSR of over 30 years who said the amount of recent bookings were some of the most she had ever seen. Yes, when it's all said and done, they will have suffered a massive financial hit from this, but they will recover.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Organized Chaos

[Cruiseboy06]

1 hour ago, xDisconnections said:

Carnival will be sailing on October 1. They simply made a mistake with the suggestion of an August 1 restart date.

 

 

Nobody knows if they will restart in October!!  Yes, they have made a mistake by stating that they would restart on Aug 1st....    My gut feeling that they will cancel more cruises in October and beyond......

[drsel]

 

 

Nobody knows if they will restart in October!!  Yes, they have made a mistake by stating that they would restart on Aug 1st....    My gut feeling that they will cancel more cruises in October and beyond......

Maybe they will cancel Cruises in October around the US, but not in all parts of the world

 

[N7786W Flyer]

On 6/23/2020 at 4:04 AM, drsel said:

So do you think they will be financially secure till May 2021?

 

Accoring to this article, published today, they can last until this time next year.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4355335-little-doubt-carnival-going-concern?mod=mw_quote_news

 

Garnett

[drsel]

 
Accoring to this article, published today, they can last until this time next year.
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4355335-little-doubt-carnival-going-concern?mod=mw_quote_news
 
Garnett

Wow I am so glad to hear that!
in that case, should I give Carnival and Princess fresh money for 3 Cruises in April May 2021?

[NuisanceLuke]

2 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Carnival will be sailing on October 1. They simply made a mistake with the suggestion of an August 1 restart date. The brand ambassador said in his live announcement video on Monday that Covid will be gone in October and the suspension of operations will be ended. Carnival cannot wait to welcome you back onboard in October.

 

And just how does John Heald know that the pandemic will be over by October 1?????   What is his reliable source for making such an irresponsible statement?   I'd like to know. 

 

The August 1 sail date announcement was a marketing strategy, and a marketing strategy only, and it apparently worked, so I strongly suspect this October 1 announcement is just another marketing strategy to drive up bookings.  Geez!

[Organized Chaos]

1 hour ago, NuisanceLuke said:

And just how does John Heald know that the pandemic will be over by October 1?????   What is his reliable source for making such an irresponsible statement?   I'd like to know. 

 

JH was just being optimistic about restarting again, but also trying to be funny about it. He said something like, let's put COVID where it belongs...well, it doesn't belong anywhere, so let's kill it. And when it's gone in October, we can cruise again and we'll have all the safety measures in place, blah blah blah. Context is important. He didn't say anything about them admitting Aug. was a mistake. He did say they are "really/very confident" they'll start up again in October. So much so that he's going to post his Oct. sailing schedule for people who like to go on his cruises.

 

2 hours ago, NuisanceLuke said:

The August 1 sail date announcement was a marketing strategy, and a marketing strategy only, and it apparently worked, so I strongly suspect this October 1 announcement is just another marketing strategy to drive up bookings.  Geez!

 

That's ridiculous, to put it nicely. The Aug. 1 date was set because the CDC's no-sail order was set to expire at the end of July and Carnival, along with all the other lines, obviously want to get back to business ASAP. For those who keep complaining that Carnival has continued to take bookings for cruises that were eventually cancelled, they had to and they have to. They can't predict the future. They set these dates and hope like mad that cruising can resume. They have to be prepared for that by having ships that are actually filled (or partially filled in the beginning). There's no deceit, there's no conspiracy theory to cheat people out of their money. They simply have to be prepared with existing bookings when that restart date finally happens.

[conwakr]

1 hour ago, Organized Chaos said:

 

JH was just being optimistic about restarting again, but also trying to be funny about it. He said something like, let's put COVID where it belongs...well, it doesn't belong anywhere, so let's kill it. And when it's gone in October, we can cruise again and we'll have all the safety measures in place, blah blah blah. Context is important. He didn't say anything about them admitting Aug. was a mistake. He did say they are "really/very confident" they'll start up again in October. So much so that he's going to post his Oct. sailing schedule for people who like to go on his cruises.

 

 

That's ridiculous, to put it nicely. The Aug. 1 date was set because the CDC's no-sail order was set to expire at the end of July and Carnival, along with all the other lines, obviously want to get back to business ASAP. For those who keep complaining that Carnival has continued to take bookings for cruises that were eventually cancelled, they had to and they have to. They can't predict the future. They set these dates and hope like mad that cruising can resume. They have to be prepared for that by having ships that are actually filled (or partially filled in the beginning). There's no deceit, there's no conspiracy theory to cheat people out of their money. They simply have to be prepared with existing bookings when that restart date finally happens.

It is in my opinion deceitful to stop cruises from being booked and not cancelling if there is zero corporate intention of fulfilling that cruise yet collecting final payments from customers. That has all the making of a class action lawsuit and is deceitful in my opinion. I will be expecting either confirmation that my booked October cruise is a go or is cancelled by my final payment date. 

[Cruisesfun65]

7 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Carnival will be sailing on October 1. They simply made a mistake with the suggestion of an August 1 restart date. The brand ambassador said in his live announcement video on Monday that Covid will be gone in October and the suspension of operations will be ended. 

 

And we keep believing everything the brand ambassador says? After he guaranteed that the inaugural Mardi Gras would not be delayed? The Radiance European sailings would not be canceled? All the cruises disappearing for May, June, July, August, September were all sold out or pulled out due to capacity control? Please.

[seaman11]

I spoke to a casino rep , for what ever its worth, that she lives in florida and they got word that Oct is going no matter how bad covid is and that the cdc will allow the ports to open,  the local economies have suffered too much and that the politicians will not drag it out any longer.  

 

 

sounded promising but you never know,  kinda did make sense to me. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

  Cruisesfun65 - 
      Truly, it's comical to watch the diehard cheerleaders & snarky "optimists" keep trying to spin the facts ... week after week, month after month.
       Back in April, there were long-time CC members angrily insisting the CDC order wouldn't have teeth, couldn't be enforced, would be overriden by Trump, etc. etc. etc.  They've been writing the same "we'll be back to cruising" post again and again, just changing the date from May to June, then mid-July, then August, now October. 
       Sorry, folks, but the way the virus is going & the way Americans are behaving, October cruising is NOT on track to happen. COVID isn't going away, the infection rates are worsening, the hospitalizations are rising:
       https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-ICU-capacity-could-be-exceeded-Thursday-15363724.php

       Of course CCL is going to play a three-care monte game for as long as it can: Grab new deposits, use the money to pay the bills, issue another "oh, my, we're disappointed but we have to cancel more cruises" notice & push customers off onto OBC (or endlessly delayed refunds). Rinse, lather, repeat.

       Carnival is not "hoping" cruising can resume. Its executives - along with Fain's and DelRio's people - know way more from the CDC than the customers will ever hear. The cruise execs - and their teams of consultants and advisors - are the ones responsible for presenting a plan the CDC can accept.  (Way too many people on CC misunderstand this situation - the CDC is not charged with finding a way to make cruising safe & practical. That's the job of the cruise lines). 
      So if you're not seeing Donald on the Sunday talk shows touting a new 14-point plan to address all the concerns of the CDC No Sail Order ... well, that's because he has no such plan. He and his staff have known precisely what the CDC wants cruise lines to address, and they've known it since March.
      The smart money realizes that his silence shows the cruise lines haven't come up with a solution ... even though their business is dead in the water without one. 

[seaman11]

6 minutes ago, Cruiseboy06 said:

That's not promising    Blowing BS!!!   nobody knows!!!!!!!!!!!!  THATS THE FACT

Well it does make sense that FL  haven't gone back on reopening even with cases spiking.  At some point the govt may decide covid is here to stay and life will go on for the economies sake .  We shall see. 

[Organized Chaos]

3 hours ago, conwakr said:

It is in my opinion deceitful to stop cruises from being booked and not cancelling if there is zero corporate intention of fulfilling that cruise yet collecting final payments from customers. That has all the making of a class action lawsuit and is deceitful in my opinion. I will be expecting either confirmation that my booked October cruise is a go or is cancelled by my final payment date. 

 

There have been many factors at play in determining whether they extend the shutdown or not. Someone's final payment date isn't one of them. This has been an unprecedented situation. No rule book for this, so they had to write one. No procedures were in place, so they had to create them. But even then, the virus itself and the CDC could change everything at any given time. There has been no surefire way to plan for this mess. The shutdown has needed to be extended long enough, but not too long. That's business. As I said before, they had to continue to book because they had to be prepared for when they were allowed to return. None of the cruise lines WANT to be shut down, they need to return. They didn't schedule return dates with zero intention to return on those dates. If conditions permitted it, they would've returned.

 

You can call Carnival and ask that your final payment date be extended until 30 days before your cruise. If you get a rep. that says they can't do it, call back and try another one because it is being granted. Final payment or not, if they cancel a cruise, you are given a choice: full refund or future cruise credit PLUS $600 OBC. They are not cheating anyone out of their money.

[Organized Chaos]

2 hours ago, Cruisesfun65 said:

All the cruises disappearing for May, June, July, August, September were all sold out or pulled out due to capacity control? Please.

 

First of all, it wasn't cruises for May, June, & July. The only cruises that had been officially designated as partial capacity were starting in August. When Carnival announced that they wouldn't be back until (hopefully) August 1st, with only 8 ships, THAT'S when they first announced that those 8 ships would run at partial capacity.

 

It wasn't just JH who was talking about partial capacity being met. Long-time customer service reps. and PVP's were acknowledging the same thing, but I guess you'll just say they were lying to cover for the company. Donald had noted that August bookings went through the roof. With only 8 ships sailing, each at partial capacity, and very high demand for those sailings...2+2=4. I don't know why it's so hard for some people to believe. There's been more evidence to show that it was true than to support this silly conspiracy theory that it was a lie.

[drsel]

If they collect only a $50 deposit for a cruise which is later cancelled, I don't think it is deceitful.

we are all hoping that cruises will restart soon and we don't expect them to default on $50

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

22 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

It is amazing some on hear think they know what the CDC and Cruise Lines are discussing. Claim the CDC is being too harsh. (They might be), but their JOB is to make sure things will be as safe as possible.

 

It's not a vendetta against cruise lines / port cities, it's a huge responsibility they are working on. CDC has what they want , cruise lines might be trying to persuade them "this way" might be more feasible.

 

Sitting here this morning it's being reported more states are mandating travel restrictions. 

 

We aren't there yet, we all want to get back to "normal" it's just so painfully slow.

 

 

beerman2 - 
  Yes, some "optimists" try to demonize the CDC constantly.  And without the facts. The No-Sail Order has been available for months right here: 
  
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

   The intro is dry, but the bullet-point requirements - especially in section 3 - are the heart of what's at stake. So many CC posters have time for conspiracy theories, snarky insults about the CDC and the media, and self-pitying posts about the poor beleaguered cruise lines ... but haven't read the very document that lays out why cruise ships remain parked.

   Thanks for a thoughtful observation.