CDC COVID Vaccine in Nov 2020.

[pcakes122]

10 hours ago, jaja said:

 Add to that a chance that it may not be totally effective (think the annual flu vaccine !)....and the fact that this virus may mutate.

Even the most promising Covid-19 vaccines are expected to only be about 50% effective, according to Dr. Fauci.  This is not unusual since he said that the annual flu vaccine is only about 70% effective.

 

So, while a vaccine is desperately needed, it is NOT a cure-all.  What we need with a vaccine is an effective, proven TREATMENT.

[jaja]

9 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

Even the most promising Covid-19 vaccines are expected to only be about 50% effective, according to Dr. Fauci.  This is not unusual since he said that the annual flu vaccine is only about 70% effective.

 

So, while a vaccine is desperately needed, it is NOT a cure-all.  What we need with a vaccine is an effective, proven TREATMENT.

Absolutely true !!  

[Laszlo]

14 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

Even the most promising Covid-19 vaccines are expected to only be about 50% effective, according to Dr. Fauci.  This is not unusual since he said that the annual flu vaccine is only about 70% effective.

 

So, while a vaccine is desperately needed, it is NOT a cure-all.  What we need with a vaccine is an effective, proven TREATMENT.

 

Nice to finally read some logic. People need to stop hoping a vaccine will be a cure all, it will not. The annual flu vaccine in a good year is 50% going across all age groups. Some years its in the 30%. My wife works for the USDA and CDC, she said the bottom line is the announcement yesterday was 100% political driven. Some certain people in the CDC need to grow a pair and stop putting out this BS. At best it only confuses people

[ziggyuk]

3 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

So what's the plan for vaccine distribution in the UK?   I'm sorry to hear that politics is interfering with vaccine development in the UK. 

 

Distribution is very similar to the US, the initial distribution will be to the most vulnerable at-risk groups and health service workers.

 

Politics is not interfering with vaccine development in the UK, not sure where that came from?

 

I am on the Oxford trial, the results are excellent, I recently had a second shot as they have determined it requires two shots for maximum antibody levels, we were all offered an optional second shot.

Of course 50% of us have a placebo of the meningitis vaccine.

 

The UK government have been on a buying frenzy, we already have 90 million shots on order from Oxford but to cover all bases they have ordered a total of 300 million doses (inc Oxford) from 5 different manufacturers covering all the different methods due to the high failure rate.

What they will do with 300 million shots if they all work is anyone's guess as we only have a population of 66 million.

Edited September 3, 2020 by ziggyuk

[Fido Chuckwagon]

16 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

This action by CDC is the equivalent of what we used to, in the Military, refer to as a "Warning Order", ie, "Be Prepared to...".  And, no, it isn't a promise that there will be a vaccine by 1 Nov but it is an indication that CDC is planning that there might be one.  All in all, this is a very positive development.  

 

A vaccine is the one way many of us might consider cruising again.  We will not embark on a cruise with the proposed protocols, ie, masks, social distancing, etc., in place.  

Hate to break it to you, but even with a vaccine, those protocols will still need to be in place for some time.

[RocketMan275]

7 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

Hate to break it to you, but even with a vaccine, those protocols will still need to be in place for some time.

If I've had the vaccine, then there is no need for me to wear a mask or practice social distancing.

[PATRLR]

7 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

If I've had the vaccine, then there is no need for me to wear a mask or practice social distancing.

With a 50% effective rate, yes, there will be a need if you desire to be a responsible member of society.

[Fido Chuckwagon]

11 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

If I've had the vaccine, then there is no need for me to wear a mask or practice social distancing.

Absolutely false.  All indications are that these early vaccines will at best be something like the flu shot.  Effective at perhaps stopping infections in 50 percent of cases and/or reducing the severity of the illness and/or reducing the mortality rate of those who contract it.  You'll still almost certainly be able to contract and spread it.  You will have to wear a mask and social distance.  That's just going to be the reality of the situation, likely for years.  This isn't going to be like the measles vaccine where you get two shots and you're protected for life.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[d9704011]

2 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

With a 50% effective rate, yes, there will be a need if you desire to be a responsible member of society.

If mask wearing and distancing are a requirement to take the cruise then that’s what will need to be respected.  The vaccine business doesn’t change that.

[JAMESCC]

Well a good effective and safe vaccine will definitely help. Anything that knocks the mortality rate down especially for those at risk will really help get past this. I read about a widely available steroid that might be just that. We can get the death rate down to near zero this will pass and become just another virus.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Fido Chuckwagon]

3 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Well a good effective and safe vaccine will definitely help. Anything that knocks the mortality rate down especially for those at risk will really help get past this. I read about a widely available steroid that might be just that. We can get the death rate down to near zero this will pass and become just another virus.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

The death rate gets all the top line media, but there are also an even greater number of people reporting to be surviving but with lifelong major damage to their lungs, other organs, etc.  Just getting this and surviving can shave years or a decade or more off your life.  It's unlikely this becomes "just another virus" anytime soon.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[d9704011]

1 minute ago, JAMESCC said:

Well a good effective and safe vaccine will definitely help. Anything that knocks the mortality rate down especially for those at risk will really help get past this. I read about a widely available steroid that might be just that. We can get the death rate down to near zero this will pass and become just another virus.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

Good golly.... don’t mix the vaccine (prevention) with the mortality/steroid (treatment).  BTW, the steroid business is for those who are in serious/critical condition and early indications are that the administration of certain steroids may prevent up to about 20% of those deaths.  No word on quality of life afterwards....

[RocketMan275]

8 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

If mask wearing and distancing are a requirement to take the cruise then that’s what will need to be respected.  The vaccine business doesn’t change that.

Nothing like wearing a mask, social distancing, and reduced occupancy to destroy cruising.

[d9704011]

Just now, RocketMan275 said:

Nothing like wearing a mask, social distancing, and reduced occupancy to destroy cruising.

If those things are required, I won’t be going on a cruise.  That’s my personal choice, not a commentary on whether they’re necessary.

[Sue Do-Over]

On one hand, having a PLAN to distribute vaccines in large quantities is a good idea.  If they were told to have a PLAN in place by Nov 1st (identifying which providers, locations, populations to prioritize) is a great idea, so they are ready to set the PLAN in action when the actual vaccines are available.  I like a good plan, myself.

 

On the other, suggesting that a safe and effective vaccine will be ready in mass quantities seems entirely political.

 

I am also discouraged that US 'leadership' has decided NOT to work with the WHO on a global effort to develop, produce and administer the best of available vaccines world-wide.  As international travelers, we cruisers potentially interact with more people in more countries than most other Americans. I'd like to believe that all of us - passengers, crew, and residents of host countries -  had received the most effective and least dangerous vaccine.  And not be limited to the ones developed 'here'.

[Laszlo]

23 minutes ago, Sue Do-Over said:

I am also discouraged that US 'leadership' has decided NOT to work with the WHO on a global effort to develop, produce and administer the best of available vaccines world-wide. 

And that makes very little sense considering the CDC and WHO work hand in hand in a lot of things. Many of the scientists work side by side. Collaborating between the two has always been a way of life,  Its purely politics at play

[PATRLR]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

Well a good effective and safe vaccine will definitely help. Anything that knocks the mortality rate down especially for those at risk will really help get past this. I read about a widely available steroid that might be just that. We can get the death rate down to near zero this will pass and become just another virus.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

Dying isn't the problem with this thing, we can handle the death.  It's the folks that tie up ICU beds for weeks on end and other long term healthcare impacts that is the problem. 

1 hour ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

The death rate gets all the top line media, but there are also an even greater number of people reporting to be surviving but with lifelong major damage to their lungs, other organs, etc.  Just getting this and surviving can shave years or a decade or more off your life.  It's unlikely this becomes "just another virus" anytime soon.

Exactly. 

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Nothing like wearing a mask, social distancing, and reduced occupancy to destroy cruising.

I would argue that the stories of being stranded at sea and the ease of which infections were able to spread has already done more to destroy cruising, for a long time into the future, than the wearing a mask and social distancing will. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by PATRLR

[JAMESCC]

It is possible and I would say likely that in the future this does just become just "another virus". Ya never know what is around the corner that could and hopefully knock this down to nothing where you prescribed something and it doesn't kill anyone or a miniscule number of deaths.

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[Sheshefran]

If 50% of the people who get the vaccine become immune then that is a whole lot of people who are no longer spreading the virus.   

[RocketMan275]

43 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

I would argue that the stories of being stranded at sea and the ease of which infections were able to spread has already done more to destroy cruising, for a long time into the future, than the wearing a mask and social distancing will. 

Irrelevant once a vaccine is available.

[Fido Chuckwagon]

32 minutes ago, Sheshefran said:

If 50% of the people who get the vaccine become immune then that is a whole lot of people who are no longer spreading the virus.   

So?  You need approximately 94 percent population immunity to interrupt the chain of transmission.  

[PATRLR]

40 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Irrelevant once a vaccine is available.

What is irrelevant?  

 

My position and point is that the history of what happened with Covid-19 along with the ongoing problems with Noro viruses and such has already done significant damage to the cruise industry - far more damage than a requirement to wear a mask or social distance.  and it's going to take far more than a vaccine for this one specific virus to undo that damage.  So what are you saying is irrelevant?

As for a vaccine, my guess is that it's going to take a lot more than a vaccine for this one specific virus to undo the damage that's been done.  

 

[Sheshefran]

47 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

So?  You need approximately 94 percent population immunity to interrupt the chain of transmission.  

You have to start somewhere.  

[RocketMan275]

21 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

What is irrelevant?  

 

My position and point is that the history of what happened with Covid-19 along with the ongoing problems with Noro viruses and such has already done significant damage to the cruise industry - far more damage than a requirement to wear a mask or social distance.  and it's going to take far more than a vaccine for this one specific virus to undo that damage.  So what are you saying is irrelevant?

As for a vaccine, my guess is that it's going to take a lot more than a vaccine for this one specific virus to undo the damage that's been done.  

 

The stories of being stranded at sea of several months ago will no longer be relevant once there is a vaccine.

[PATRLR]

18 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

The stories of being stranded at sea of several months ago will no longer be relevant once there is a vaccine.

I am sure cruise line shareholders and management hope that is the case.  I suspect it will not be the case.  We'll just have to wait and see I guess.