My Money is on Cunard

[ew101]

On 12/6/2020 at 7:38 AM, majortom10 said:

So what do you suggest for families who have 1 or 2 children that they book 2 cabins, cost impractical, or not go on cruises. This would have a major impact on many cruise ships which are family orientated and designed. 

But not so much on Cunard which seems to cater to adults.  The idea was inspired by the "family of five" outbreak on the November Seadream 1 cruise.   It is possible that if you already had the virus (or were vaccinated) you would be less at risk. 

 

  

Edited December 8, 2020 by ew101

[rsquare]

I haven't heard much, either here or elsewhere, about pandemic-inspired changes to the physical plant of the ships, as opposed to policies and procedures.

 

There is an interesting article in this morning's NY Times about the modifications that some hotels and cruise ships are making to their HVAC systems.  Richard Branson's new ship, Scarlet Lady, has an air ionization system for cabins and public spaces which has been shown to remove 99% of virus particles after 30 minutes, according to the article.

 

I haven't seen anything in Cunard publicity about infrastructure changes to the fleet.  Has anyone else?

[Underwatr]

17 hours ago, bazzaw said:

The latest figures I have seen have said that approx 70 million people have been infected by the virus Worldwide. This means that approx 1430 million people have not been infected. So the virus still has plenty of space to move around the World. I am not expecting cruising to begin for a VERY long time - if ever, as the cruiselines will go bankrupt next year.

I expect more people to get immunity via one of the forthcoming vaccines rather than by catching the virus. Don't you?

 

If the lines ensure that passengers and crew only board with proof of vaccination we can go back to worrying mostly about Noro.

[chengkp75]

On 12/5/2020 at 8:58 AM, ew101 said:

Common area HVAC changes will be needed.  Recirculation sideways in a room is bad.   Fresh air is good.  (Do the droplets in fact remain viable after a trip though the air handlers- probably not).  This may require ductwork changes.  More floor level intakes.  The air flow needs to be downward and out. 

I can guarantee that there is a 0% chance of ductwork being rerouted.

[chengkp75]

3 hours ago, rsquare said:

I haven't heard much, either here or elsewhere, about pandemic-inspired changes to the physical plant of the ships, as opposed to policies and procedures.

 

There is an interesting article in this morning's NY Times about the modifications that some hotels and cruise ships are making to their HVAC systems.  Richard Branson's new ship, Scarlet Lady, has an air ionization system for cabins and public spaces which has been shown to remove 99% of virus particles after 30 minutes, according to the article.

 

I haven't seen anything in Cunard publicity about infrastructure changes to the fleet.  Has anyone else?

These ionization systems tout their reduction in HVAC plant size and operating cost, because they actually encourage recirculation of air within the structure.  The system is placed on the fresh air intake and makes oxygen ions to bond to the particles, and "drop them below the "breathing level" (the additional ion makes them heavier), it does not sanitize anything.  And, the effectiveness of the ionization in dropping the particles depends on the air circulation in the space, and how much additional particles are introduced into the space (someone enters and breaths out covid virus).  This may make indoor air feel "fresher" and may slow down airborne transmission, but it will not eliminate person to person transfer.

[Underwatr]

Doesn't ionization increase the effect of a suitably charged filter?

 

Granted, unless and until the exhaled air makes its way to the filter any effect is theoretical.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Underwatr

[ew101]

On 12/8/2020 at 5:14 PM, chengkp75 said:

This may make indoor air feel "fresher" and may slow down airborne transmission, but it will not eliminate person to person transfer.

I read the ionization company website material.  There is a nice study supporting mask wearing.  I'm not convinced the virus particles /droplet/aerosol process is effective over long range.  So the enhanced filtration argument is not convincing.  The three best use cases- standing at the bar watching football or the table of eight or the next machine over at the gym - how does this system "fix" that?  

[chengkp75]

2 minutes ago, ew101 said:

I read the ionization company website material.  There is a nice study supporting mask wearing.  I'm not convinced the virus particles /droplet/aerosol process is effective over long range.  So the enhanced filtration argument is not convincing.  The three best use cases- standing at the bar watching football or the table of eight or the next machine over at the gym - how does this system "fix" that?  

Yes, space size and ducting length may well affect the efficacy of this filtration system.  As I've said all along, the CDC does not require or suggest any additional filtration or changes to HVAC systems on ships, or even in buildings.

[ace2542]

On 12/8/2020 at 10:59 PM, chengkp75 said:

I can guarantee that there is a 0% chance of ductwork being rerouted.

It would probably cost too much and be too disruptive to the ship and would mean time in dry dock?

[ew101]

There are two HVAC topics here.  One is enhanced system filtration - HEPA etc. which I am skeptical of.  There is limited to no data supporting COVID-19 long range /indirect transmission.  There is the notion of smaller droplets in dry conditions etc.  If this was the case every one of us would have caught it shopping for groceries or in any indoor space.  The primary transmission mode is short range, person to person, indoors, via droplets.   A small table of six strangers all maskless would be perfect.  

 

The second argument is about indoor air flow.  I'm arguing air flow shoud be re-directed away from sideways to vertical in potentially crowded spaces.  And more fresh air is better- the data shows the virus transmits poorly outdoors.  Indoors, this sounds complicated and messy.  There are many photos of droplet flow after people talk, cough or sing.  Sideways seems bad, downward seems good.  

[ace2542]

25 minutes ago, ew101 said:

There are two HVAC topics here.  One is enhanced system filtration - HEPA etc. which I am skeptical of.  There is limited to no data supporting COVID-19 long range /indirect transmission.  There is the notion of smaller droplets in dry conditions etc.  If this was the case every one of us would have caught it shopping for groceries or in any indoor space.  The primary transmission mode is short range, person to person, indoors, via droplets.   A small table of six strangers all maskless would be perfect.  

 

The second argument is about indoor air flow.  I'm arguing air flow shoud be re-directed away from sideways to vertical in potentially crowded spaces.  And more fresh air is better- the data shows the virus transmits poorly outdoors.  Indoors, this sounds complicated and messy.  There are many photos of droplet flow after people talk, cough or sing.  Sideways seems bad, downward seems good.  

And what the cost of these things be for a short term to medium term fix at the very most?. Money it can't afford dipping into dwindling reserves?

 

And sorry perhaps you need to get over this fear of this that you have and trust he vaccine will do what it needs to and it seems to. It is highly unlikely that people will go on the ship if they have to wear the mask for 14 hours a day. Even if not required to wear it in their cabins or in their sleep though I doubt that could be checked upon. Will they what? Wear it sitting at the dinning table? Eat the first course, then put it back on for 2 minutes till the second course comes etc etc. Then take a drink the bar then pull the mask back up and then take a second drink pulling it down and so on and so forth and keep your voice down you are talking too loudly. Forget about deck 12 the sundeck and the deck games. What about the afternoon tea big lines always and the lecture programs and enrichment programs. Always full both decks. Oh and you get tested every day. Not a chance in hell. It will be no vaccine no sail no employment no exceptions probably.

Edited December 10, 2020 by ace2542

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

It would probably cost too much and be too disruptive to the ship and would mean time in dry dock?

Attempting to direct airflow in a space from above to lower returns, would require pretty much tearing out every public space and cabin in order to relocate the ducting.  While not requiring drydock, it would require a long time out of service in a shipyard.

[ace2542]

3 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Attempting to direct airflow in a space from above to lower returns, would require pretty much tearing out every public space and cabin in order to relocate the ducting.  While not requiring drydock, it would require a long time out of service in a shipyard.

And a lot of money to boot I am sure.

[Fairgarth]

13 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Attempting to direct airflow in a space from above to lower returns, would require pretty much tearing out every public space and cabin in order to relocate the ducting.  While not requiring drydock, it would require a long time out of service in a shipyard.

 

I read a report some weeks ago - can't find it now - of some scientists who borrowed a United 767 and tested the distribution of particles.  They set up a dummy on a seat to exhale particles as per Covid and had several detection devices on many surrounding seats.  They tested it at ground level, at 30,000ft  and at different seat locations.   Short summary:  if the dummy was infectious, nobody else got it.  Air comes in from above and is sucked out at floor level, the airflow is straight downward so you could sit next to an infectious person and not get it.  However, departure lounge, boarding and deboarding could be different.  I'm not aware that any ship has extraction vents at floor level so that would be a very different thing.  As chengkp75 says, it ain't gonna happen at sea.

[ace2542]

6 hours ago, Fairgarth said:

As chengkp75 says, it ain't gonna happen at sea

I am no engineering but for the sake of the argument and rip up much of the ship in the process. How big of a task would it be to construct new bows - if that is the correct term - for the QE and QV so they are the same ship as the QM2 and give a smoother ride and make the fleet 3 true ocean going liners. Would it be a case having the bows made and welding  them into the place of the old bows at the same time as the mass rip up work is going on inside the ships. Or would that be too involved.

[chengkp75]

4 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

I am no engineering but for the sake of the argument and rip up much of the ship in the process. How big of a task would it be to construct new bows - if that is the correct term - for the QE and QV so they are the same ship as the QM2 and give a smoother ride and make the fleet 3 true ocean going liners. Would it be a case having the bows made and welding  them into the place of the old bows at the same time as the mass rip up work is going on inside the ships. Or would that be too involved.

First off, there is more to the difference between QM2 and her two sisters than just the bow, and I'll be careful here of offending the Cunard faithful when I say that there is no "definition" of what is an "ocean liner" and what is a "cruise ship".  Secondly, without getting up close and observing the actual ships, I don't see that much difference in the bows, and the only real difference is the amount of "flare" or how the bow widens from the waterline upwards, and this only gives the ship more "reserve buoyancy".  This reserve buoyancy means that as the bow enters a wave, this buoyancy tends to make the bow rise up and ride the wave higher than a ship with less flare, meaning the ship pitches more (vertical movement in the long axis of the ship) and "slams" (shuddering from impact with the wave) less.

 

Now, to the thought of slapping a new bow on the ships.  Each hull is designed to work as a unit, and you would need to test the hydrodynamic response of the new, modified hull, before cutting steel.  There may be unintended consequences of changing the bow shape.  Secondly, the bow is full of machinery, so it is not just like doing some custom body work on a car, you would be talking about a hundred million to build a new bow, and then you would need to be in a shipyard and a drydock in that yard with a crane capable of picking up large modules and placing them in the drydock (so it would need to be a "newbuilding" yard, not merely a "ship repair" yard).

 

And, finally, what makes you think that Cunard is interested in having 3 "true" ocean liners?  If there was that much demand for "ocean liners", don't you think that Cunard at least would have built more?

[ew101]

On 12/10/2020 at 9:45 PM, Fairgarth said:

 

.  Air comes in from above and is sucked out at floor level, the airflow is straight downward so you could sit next to an infectious person and not get it.  However, departure lounge, boarding and deboarding could be different.  I'm not aware that any ship has extraction vents at floor level so that would be a very different thing.  As chengkp75 says, it ain't gonna happen at sea.

Ok now we are getting somewhere.  So if Simon picks up the (Bat) phone and calls ChengKP and says "You know, Marketing wants to create an inherently safe cruise ship bar or dining room.  Can you put vents low in a venue or in the floor and have top to bottom airflow?"  Of course you would have to take the ship out of service (LOL) and well - is it possible?  And while you are at it put filters in each cabin door so the air goes out in the hall filtered?  The trade off /business case is you go into service sooner.  So far stamping of feet and huffing and puffing has not been effective.  If the lines can fund ice bars or robot bars, why not a "Safe Bar"?

[ew101]

22 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

First off, there is more to the difference between QM2 and her two sisters than just the bow

In Chapter 3 of Stephen Payne's lovely 2014 book -RMS Queen Mary 2, he makes a compelling case for the notion of an ocean liner.  The idea includes "A finer hull form to slice through the waves in bad weather rather than ride over them...high propulsion power...increased structural strength...deeper daught..." and other arguments.  He used a 1966 photo of the Atlantic wave-smashed superstructure of the Italian Line Michelangelo to convince the Carnival Board to hand over the extra cash to build a real liner vs a fake one based on an existing cruise ship design.  

[ew101]

There is a piece on the RCCL Blog about passing on the ionization technology.  There is some discussion about air circulation.  They are talking about bringing in more outside air.  And reducing indoor functions.  

 

Royal Caribbean passes on virus-zapping air air purifier blog.selectivecrew.com

Edited December 13, 2020 by ew101

[ace2542]

On 12/12/2020 at 9:45 AM, ew101 said:

Ok now we are getting somewhere.  So if Simon picks up the (Bat) phone and calls ChengKP and says "You know, Marketing wants to create an inherently safe cruise ship bar or dining room.  Can you put vents low in a venue or in the floor and have top to bottom airflow?"  Of course you would have to take the ship out of service (LOL) and well - is it possible?  And while you are at it put filters in each cabin door so the air goes out in the hall filtered?  The trade off /business case is you go into service sooner.  So far stamping of feet and huffing and puffing has not been effective.  If the lines can fund ice bars or robot bars, why not a "Safe Bar"?

And ace2542 in the finance department in Southampton - currently tearing his hair out over the amount of money going out the company  - picks up his phone and asks. "How much will it cost? How long will it take? Are we sure it will take that a long not longer? Look at our new build the Queen Amidala already over budget and behind time!. What cruises will we have to cancel and refund customers because we cancelled them and they won't take a future cruise credit the little swear words! I am not sure we can find the money we are borrowed up to hilt already!"