Test cruises coming soon?

[KirkNC]

At least that’s what RCI’s CEO said on today’s earnings call.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24418-cdc-cruise-rules-may-be-just-days-away-volunteer-sailings-next.html
 

 

[rodndonna]

We were one of the 250,000 volunteers for the test cruises - although as we have never sailed RCI we stand 0% chance of being selected. 😒

 

[KirkNC]

8 hours ago, rodndonna said:

We were one of the 250,000 volunteers for the test cruises - although as we have never sailed RCI we stand 0% chance of being selected. 😒

 

You never know, it maybe a way for them to expand their customer base.

[chengkp75]

According to the CDC a couple of weeks ago, they were nearly ready with the technical instructions for the "next phase" of their "phased approach" to restarting cruises.  Those technical instructions were in regard to the required agreements between the cruise lines and the ports and local health care, transportation, and accommodation systems in those ports to provide for disembarking, transporting, treating, and quarantining infected or close contact passengers.  I don't believe the CDC will be issuing technical instructions on actual simulated cruises until the cruise lines submit these service agreements to the CDC for approval, so probably another couple of months.

[KirkNC]

Well that would rapidly deflate the balloon 🎈.  I still am in the camp that everyone is waiting for the vaccinations to be wide spread.

[chengkp75]

32 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Well that would rapidly deflate the balloon 🎈.  I still am in the camp that everyone is waiting for the vaccinations to be wide spread.

Sorry to be the Debbie Downer, just reporting the facts.  I think it was a CC article a few weeks ago.  And, even with the vaccine being widespread in the US, and given the share of the economy that crew members provide in other countries, I think it will be a while before crew are vaccinated on a large scale.

[KirkNC]

I don’t know how they will do it but I believe the cruise lines will get their crews vaccinated.  It may not be until late spring or early summer when the vaccines will be more readily available.  We are in the camp that if the lines don’t require vaccinations for everyone on board, we will pass on cruising.

[chengkp75]

2 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

I don’t know how they will do it but I believe the cruise lines will get their crews vaccinated.  It may not be until late spring or early summer when the vaccines will be more readily available.  We are in the camp that if the lines don’t require vaccinations for everyone on board, we will pass on cruising.

The Philippines just received their first shipment of vaccine, about 110k, and plan to only have about 5.6 million by the end of March.  Indonesia has only vaccinated about 0.7% of their population.  Given the CDC's "phased" approach to restarting, and the difficulties of vaccinating crew, I don't see limited cruises until fall, JMHO.

[KirkNC]

I agree but my date may even be later.  I have wondered if CCL could just go to vaccine manufacturers directly and procure vaccines for their crews.

[chengkp75]

16 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

I agree but my date may even be later.  I have wondered if CCL could just go to vaccine manufacturers directly and procure vaccines for their crews.

Given the size of government orders, I would think that in order to "jump the line", the cruise lines would have to pay a very hefty premium for the vaccines.  I looked at CNN, who has a worldwide vaccine tracking site, and even India, a major producer of vaccine has only vaccinated 1% of the population.

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Well that would rapidly deflate the balloon 🎈.  I still am in the camp that everyone is waiting for the vaccinations to be wide spread.

And the vaccine may do even more than expected once it is widespread.

 

Covid Vaccines Work. They Likely Also Reduce Transmission (msn.com)

[Mary229]

Russia is mass producing their vaccine and has also "licensed" other countries to produce the vaccine.  I would not be so quick to ignore them, it seems they are the go to vaccine for other countries.  China also has a vaccine and India is producing as much vaccine as they can.   Also other countries do not have to follow CDC protocols for distribution. Looking at CDC graphs only is a very narrow view

[chengkp75]

According to the CNN graph, produced by "Our World in Data", both Russia and China have only vaccinated 3% of their population, and as I said, India is below 1%, so these countries are behind the US rate, even though they are vaccine producers.

[KirkNC]

5 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Given the size of government orders, I would think that in order to "jump the line", the cruise lines would have to pay a very hefty premium for the vaccines.  I looked at CNN, who has a worldwide vaccine tracking site, and even India, a major producer of vaccine has only vaccinated 1% of the population.

Ah they can just issue more stock and debt.  They remind me of the US government.

[nocl]

6 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

The Philippines just received their first shipment of vaccine, about 110k, and plan to only have about 5.6 million by the end of March.  Indonesia has only vaccinated about 0.7% of their population.  Given the CDC's "phased" approach to restarting, and the difficulties of vaccinating crew, I don't see limited cruises until fall, JMHO.

However, the cruise lines could make arrangements to vaccinate their crew at port in the US, once the US has adequate supply in mid summer. 

 

The CDC framework requires testing and quarantine prior to crew starting work so they could fly to port using a negative test in their home country, get vaccinated in US, serve their quarantine period, by that time the vaccination (even two dose is partially effective), then get second dose also in port.  There are maybe, what, a 100,000 or so crew members on board the mainstream US located lines at any given time.  Not much in the scheme of things later on in the year.

 

Biggest issue will be if the airlines stop allowing people to fly internationally with just a negative test.