Farewell to June... maybe July

[hernando52]

On 3/15/2021 at 11:18 AM, Jeanne2 said:

We recently kicked the can down the road again and rebooked for a second time our PoA Sept 2021 Hawaii cruise to 2022 as a precaution for both cancellation and more so fear of restrictions and closures.  At the time it seemed like we were being overly cautions but not so much now.  Still waiting for our vaccinations and cruising again someday. 

 

We were booked on the POA for Nov. 2021 and rescheduled until Sept. 2022.  NCL may be sailing by 11/2021, but we are not comfortable that Hawaii may not be ready & comfortable with lots of cruise passengers descending upon them.  Although we are vaccinated, we'll hold off until next year.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

That 2.44 million is a 7 day rolling average. On Friday we administered 2.92 million and that number will keep increasing as JNJ increases their production.

https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-vaccinations-top-100m-bolstering-case-for-herd-immunity-20210313-p57adp#:~:text=A record 2.92 million vaccinations,Slavitt said in a tweet.

There's good reason to use a 7 day rolling average because data are not consistently reported on time causing peaks and valleys in the individual days' numbers. 

Yes, as J&J increases production the numbers will go up, but you can't count on exactly when that production will reach  a level that will significantly boost the number of vaccinations. In any event you can't possibly predict a date by which a certain percentage of the population will have been vaccinated without knowing the mix of single dose and two dose vaccines . Having only the first dose of a two dose vaccine doesn't put you in the "vaccinated" column. To be considered vaccinated means you've received the full complement of required.

The article you've cited is misleading because it fails to account for just this difference. 100 million doses administered does not mean 100 million people are now considered to be (fully) vaccinated. I suggest you use the data exactly as published by the CDC :

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Edited March 16, 2021 by njhorseman

[hamrag]

4 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

We have about 260 million adults in the United States. So we have 40 million already fully vaccinated and another 30 million that have had 1 dose. That means at 3 million doses administered per day we could have 100% of adults vaccinated in the next 137 days. That's the end of July. That puts us at around 80% of the adult population in the US fully vaccinated by July 1st. This is assuming we don't increase the number of doses administered daily.

 

Obviously we won't be at 80% by July 1st because there's plenty of people that don't want to be vaccinated. But, there's no reason we can't have safe cruising by July based on current numbers.

 

I have, for some time now, thought that US cruising might start again October with a fair wind in them sails! Nothing I hear or read has changed my mind in that belief.

[DaCruiseBug]

31 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

There's good reason to use a 7 day rolling average because data are not consistently reported on time causing peaks and valleys in the individual days' numbers. 

Yes, as J&J increases production the numbers will go up, but you can't count on exactly when that production will reach  a level that will significantly boost the number of vaccinations. In any event you can't possibly predict a date by which a certain percentage of the population will have been vaccinated without knowing the mix of single dose and two dose vaccines . Having only the first dose of a two dose vaccine doesn't put you in the "vaccinated" column. To be considered vaccinated means you've received the full complement of required.

The article you've cited is misleading because it fails to account for just this difference. 100 million doses administered does not mean 100 million people are now considered to be (fully) vaccinated. I suggest you use the data exactly as published by the CDC :

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

A 7 day rolling average is only a good way to track numbers if overall they're fairly constant week over week. The reality is that the number of vaccines has increased at a rapid pace. Just 3 weeks ago the 7 day rolling average was 1.4 million. So we're at about an 80% increase in just 3 weeks.

 

As far as J&J vaccine production, HHS just announced that they'll have 100 million doses out by the end of May rather than by the end of June...and these are single dose vaccines.

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/03/02/biden-administration-announces-historic-manufacturing-collaboration-between-merck-johnson-johnson-expand-production-covid-19-vaccines.html

 

Assuming that the current number of vaccines is what we should expect moving forward would be a gross underestimate.

While capacity as of right now is about 3 million doses per day, that number is expected to increase to 4-5 million per day with a substantial amount of J&J vaccines which again won't require a 2nd dose.

 

https://abc7ny.com/may-1-vaccine-covid-vaccines-joe-biden-appointments/10414093/

 

 

[BirdTravels]

20 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

While capacity as of right now is about 3 million doses per day, that number is expected to increase to 4-5 million per day with a substantial amount of J&J vaccines which again won't require a 2nd dose.

The caution is that the J&J vaccine is 66% effective in preventing moderate COVID infections and 85% effective in preventing serious disease. Which means that anyone who has been vaccinated with the single dose J&J can still get mild COVID when exposed and moderate COVID 33% of the time. The vaccine does it job by help keeping you out of the hospital and keeping you from dying. But... if people feel invincible and are careless after getting the J&J, they can still catch and spread COVID,,, not helping the new cases or positivity rates. 

[DaCruiseBug]

30 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

The caution is that the J&J vaccine is 66% effective in preventing moderate COVID infections and 85% effective in preventing serious disease. Which means that anyone who has been vaccinated with the single dose J&J can still get mild COVID when exposed and moderate COVID 33% of the time. The vaccine does it job by help keeping you out of the hospital and keeping you from dying. But... if people feel invincible and are careless after getting the J&J, they can still catch and spread COVID,,, not helping the new cases or positivity rates. 

True, but at that point it's no different than the flu. 

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

A 7 day rolling average is only a good way to track numbers if overall they're fairly constant week over week.

No, my experience as an actuary and mathematician has taught me that a rolling average is a reasonable tool to smooth out the inconsistencies in reporting within any particular weekly reporting period. Sometimes data are not reported for days so any particular day can be grossly under or over reported and depending on what day you're looking at you can easily get a significantly inaccurate picture, high or low, of the actual activity. If you look at the chart in the NY Times article it's rather obvious that the 7 day rolling average presents a far better picture of the actual course of the vaccine rollout as compared to the individual daily data that show tremendous peaks and valleys that are solely an artifact of inconsistent data reporting. You can extrapolate from the rolling average to get a good projection of the growth in vaccinations. You can't get a damn thing out of the individual daily data.

 

Also the number of vaccine doses produced does not instantaneously equate to the number of vaccinations administered. There is a significant lag between production and actual administration of the vaccine. 100 million doses being produced by a certain date does not equate to 100 million people being vaccinated  by that date. In addition to physically distributing the vaccine to vaccination sites in every corner of the country we have to find sufficient additional human resources to actually administer the vaccines and we really have to improve the system for scheduling vaccination appointments. From what I've read as well as heard from others, not to mention my personal experience, I can tell you that the process of getting your place in line for vaccination has been nothing short of complete chaos for many. 

 

[DaCruiseBug]

1 minute ago, njhorseman said:

No, my experience as an actuary and mathematician has taught me that a rolling average is a reasonable tool to smooth out the inconsistencies in reporting within any particular weekly reporting period. Sometimes data are not reported for days so any particular day can be grossly under or over reported and depending on what day you're looking at you can easily get a significantly inaccurate picture, high or low, of the actual activity. If you look at the chart in the NY Times article it's rather obvious that the 7 day rolling average presents a far better picture of the actual course of the vaccine rollout as compared to the individual daily data that show tremendous peaks and valleys that are solely an artifact of inconsistent data reporting. You can extrapolate from the rolling average to get a good projection of the growth in vaccinations. You can't get a damn thing out of the individual daily data.

 

Also the number of vaccine doses produced does not instantaneously equate to the number of vaccinations administered. There is a significant lag between production and actual administration of the vaccine. 100 million doses being produced by a certain date does not equate to 100 million people being vaccinated  by that date. In addition to physically distributing the vaccine to vaccination sites in every corner of the country we have to find sufficient additional human resources to actually administer the vaccines and we really have to improve the system for scheduling vaccination appointments. From what I've read as well as heard from others, not to mention my personal experience, I can tell you that the process of getting your place in line for vaccination has been nothing short of complete chaos for many. 

 

 

Outside of Israel, we've done better than any other country so far at vaccinating. I just booked my appointment 2 days ago. Super easy. Go to the website, verify that you're eligible and pick one of the days and times they have available. Going for my first shot in 2 weeks.

 

Also, I don't rely on date reported from a 3rd party website. I just go directly to the CDC website. Using a bar graph you can easily see if any of the data from an individual day is an anomaly. Even the 7 day rolling average will be at 3 million doses per day by the end of the month.

[MoCruiseFan]

9 hours ago, ash2bear said:

RCL cancelled May sailings last week. NCL cancelled May a month ago.

It went over your head, sorry.

 

[njhorseman]

14 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Outside of Israel, we've done better than any other country so far at vaccinating.

No...in addition to Israel the UAE, UK, and Chile all have higher rates of vaccination dose administration than we do. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

18 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Also, I don't rely on date reported from a 3rd party website. I just go directly to the CDC website.

The NY Times data are from the CDC. 

21 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

I just booked my appointment 2 days ago. Super easy

Good.

22 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Go to the website

Sorry that doesn't work for millions of elderly who don't use computers or smartphones as well as urban and rural poor without computers or internet access. Getting an appointment has been an arduous and in many cases nearly impossible process for them...and they are among the most vulnerable citizens in our country.

 

 

[mianmike]

3 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

The caution is that the J&J vaccine is 66% effective in preventing moderate COVID infections and 85% effective in preventing serious disease. Which means that anyone who has been vaccinated with the single dose J&J can still get mild COVID when exposed and moderate COVID 33% of the time. The vaccine does it job by help keeping you out of the hospital and keeping you from dying. But... if people feel invincible and are careless after getting the J&J, they can still catch and spread COVID,,, not helping the new cases or positivity rates. 

 

I've received my first Pfizer shot.  After seeing the efficacy data for Pfizer and Moderna as they relate to the B1351 and P.1 variants, I'd much rather have the J&J vaccine.  Hopefully they will allow us access to the J&J or Novamax vaccines as a booster once everyone is vaccinated. 

[DaCruiseBug]

9 hours ago, njhorseman said:

No...in addition to Israel the UAE, UK, and Chile all have higher rates of vaccination dose administration than we do. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The NY Times data are from the CDC. 

Good.

Sorry that doesn't work for millions of elderly who don't use computers or smartphones as well as urban and rural poor without computers or internet access. Getting an appointment has been an arduous and in many cases nearly impossible process for them...and they are among the most vulnerable citizens in our country.

 

 

And those countries are all MUCH MUCH smaller than the United States. California alone has more people than 3 out of 4 of those countries. The UK is slightly ahead of the US in vaccination rates but they also were the ones who administered the first vaccines as they received regulatory approval before the FDA gave approval here in the US.

 

Also, as far as not having access to the internet...BS. Per the latest FCC report only 6% of the population in the US doesn't have access to fixed broadband service. And i'm willing to bet a substantial number of those that fall in that category have a smartphone with internet. It's a baseless excuse. Just like how you can't require people to show an ID to vote because many people don't have an ID. Again...BS.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

And those countries are all MUCH MUCH smaller than the United States. California alone has more people than 3 out of 4 of those countries. The UK is slightly ahead of the US in vaccination rates but they also were the ones who administered the first vaccines as they received regulatory approval before the FDA gave approval here in the US.

Which does nothing to change the fact that you were wrong when you said only Israel was vaccinating at a higher rate than the US.

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Also, as far as not having access to the internet...BS. Per the latest FCC report only 6% of the population in the US doesn't have access to fixed broadband service. And i'm willing to bet a substantial number of those that fall in that category have a smartphone with internet. It's a baseless excuse. Just like how you can't require people to show an ID to vote because many people don't have an ID. Again...BS.

Gee, why is that in Philadelphia for example they've started to open walk-in vaccination clinics for people residing in certain zip codes because they're unable to make vaccination appointments via the internet because they don't have a smartphone, computer or internet access? The people you see waiting on long lines for hours in the cold weather are overwhelmingly elderly or people of color.

 

Why is it that in NJ the government realized that a substantial percentage of the vaccine-eligible population were unable to register on the state's website because of lack of a computer, smartphone or internet access and weeks after the start of vaccine registration  finally added a toll free  telephone number where a human could register them ? 

 

Somehow I suspect NJ and Philadelphia are far from the only places where the poor and elderly have had difficulty making vaccination appointments.

 

I'm done. Not wasting any more time with you.

[DaCruiseBug]

1 minute ago, njhorseman said:

Which does nothing to change the fact that you were wrong when you said only Israel was vaccinating at a higher rate than the US.

Gee, why is that in Philadelphia for example they've started to open walk-in vaccination clinics for people residing in certain zip codes because they're unable to make vaccination appointments via the internet because they don't have a smartphone, computer or internet access? The people you see waiting on long lines for hours in the cold weather are overwhelmingly elderly or people of color.

 

Why is it that in NJ the government realized that a substantial percentage of the vaccine-eligible population were unable to register on the state's website because of lack of a computer, smartphone or internet access and weeks after the start of vaccine registration  finally added a toll free  telephone number where a human could register them ? 

 

Somehow I suspect NJ and Philadelphia are far from the only places where the poor and elderly have had difficulty making vaccination appointments.

 

I'm done. Not wasting any more time with you.

 

Oh yes Philadelphia...It's always easy to blame others for your blunders. Those that lack internet access are mostly out in rural areas that don't have broadband available. Not those that live in urban areas. Those that live in Philadelphia (since you brought it up) that happen to not have access to the internet (computer or phone) can go to multiple locations and have access to the internet. Think of churches, libraries etc.

 

Realistically, almost nobody is unable to gain access to the internet. If you're one of the very few people that really doesn't have a computer with internet or a phone with internet then you can use community resources, ask a neighbor, ask a family member etc. Adults need to start acting like adults. We don't need to government to spoon feed us all even tho some of you may think that's the solution.

[zerooveride]

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Also, as far as not having access to the internet...BS. Per the latest FCC report only 6% of the population in the US doesn't have access to fixed broadband service. And i'm willing to bet a substantial number of those that fall in that category have a smartphone with internet. It's a baseless excuse.

Just because someone has ACCESS doesn't mean they know how to use or even have a computer/smartphone. Example: My mother could get a Fiber internet connection where she lives but doesn't know how to use a cellphone or computer. Also, my wife is a special education teacher and about half of her class didn't have access to the internet for remote learning last year because they couldn't afford it (the school bought hotspots for them).

 

There are other barriers than just having the access to it.  

 

 

[DaCruiseBug]

1 hour ago, zerooveride said:

Just because someone has ACCESS doesn't mean they know how to use or even have a computer/smartphone. Example: My mother could get a Fiber internet connection where she lives but doesn't know how to use a cellphone or computer. Also, my wife is a special education teacher and about half of her class didn't have access to the internet for remote learning last year because they couldn't afford it (the school bought hotspots for them).

 

There are other barriers than just having the access to it.  

 

 

 

You're right...which is why if you really don't have access then you can use community resources. Or a family member etc...

[BoozinCroozin]

On 3/16/2021 at 5:13 PM, cabincop said:

I just wish the powers to be & CDC would come together & outline a reasonable return. Instead of canceling month by month, just agree no cruises thru the summer. This is ridiculous. 

I agree 100%. The constant waiting is eliminating opportunities for families to vacation. By the time they are canceled, other possibilities are booked or so high that vacationing may not even be possible. We are already in that predicament. Other things have flooded our calendar and a few open ended items prevent us from being able to book anything now.

[HBCcruiser]

5 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I agree 100%. The constant waiting is eliminating opportunities for families to vacation. By the time they are canceled, other possibilities are booked or so high that vacationing may not even be possible. We are already in that predicament. Other things have flooded our calendar and a few open ended items prevent us from being able to book anything now.

More and more people are flying to resorts. Our flights to Cabo in April are completely booked up. In February they were wide open. People are vacationing despite what the CDC says. 

[BoozinCroozin]

1 hour ago, HBCcruiser said:

More and more people are flying to resorts. Our flights to Cabo in April are completely booked up. In February they were wide open. People are vacationing despite what the CDC says. 

I would book a Summer vacation if I could, but stuck holding a July cruise that will be canceled. Because the cruise lines wait forever, by the time they do other vacations will be out of reach. 

 

I think people are traveling because they no longer trust anything the CDC says. I don't necessarily disagree with them either. The CDC has performed miserably. If I had to grade them as a teacher to a student, I think 10-15% is what their grade would be. 

[MsTabbyKats]

50 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I would book a Summer vacation if I could, but stuck holding a July cruise that will be canceled. Because the cruise lines wait forever, by the time they do other vacations will be out of reach. 

 

I think people are traveling because they no longer trust anything the CDC says. I don't necessarily disagree with them either. The CDC has performed miserably. If I had to grade them as a teacher to a student, I think 10-15% is what their grade would be. 

People are travelling because more people have been vaccinated...and people feel safer.

[cmh]

My cruise the end of March was canceled and not sure about the one I booked the end of August.  Glad NCL changed final due date to 60 days prior to departure.  Hopefully they will make a decision by then.

 

[GA Dave]

5 hours ago, MsTabbyKats said:

People are travelling because more people have been vaccinated...and people feel safer.

I know I do.  Went to my daughter’s in Michigan for the birth of my second granddaughter and I felt much more relaxed in the airport, on the plane, etc than I did back in December.

[Stealthdog]

Celebrity just announced today they are commencing 7 day Caribbean cruises out of St Maarten in June, becoming the 2nd line now to start cruises this summer.  Celebrity’s email says adults with vaccines but children under 18 only need negative test.  It’s just a matter of time before the rest of the cruise lines follow.

[Yesimapirate]

I'm not sure about what's happening near everyone else but here in Central FL, people are making a bigger effort to avoid J&J than they are the plague.  I believe last week at the main county vaccination site, there were 10,000 appointments available that were not booked (or so reported the local news).  Starting on Monday, anyone 40 and over can get it. Multiple people have told me they'll give doses to anyone at the end of the day because the other option is letting the vaccine spoil.

 

Meanwhile,  people are queuing up on our local grocery stores website to get the Moderna vaccine. 

 

So when the government and media give a number of vaccine produced,  we need to take it with a grain of salt.  Not all of them make it to people's arms.  Additionally,  at some point,  probably in May when every adult is eligible nationally,  we are going to have more supply than demand which will also affect the numbers.