Vaccine and other precautions yes testing no

[Peachypooh]

I am ok with vaccine, shore excursions, mask, etc. as rules for cruising. I am not

OK with the testing requirement. The reason is that the tests are not 100 percent accurate.

How do I know if I show up it will show a false positive and then I have to deal with the

consequences. FWIW where I live the tests are not all that reliable. Mostly false negatives

(everyone in this one family has the same symptoms but one person tests negative??) and

One person tests positive, asks for a re-test and tests negative. 

 

If my perceptions are wrong and someone on this board knows for sure there are no false

positives please ally my fears. thank you.

[roger001]

This whole mess has sooo many uncertainties in it.  I don't know how in the world all the technical required details will ever be determined for implementation, and all the variables, like you proposed, will ever get finally set.   Whatta mess..........     I just don't see this happening like some imagine.  

 

[hernando52]

I am in agreement with you.  We are vaccinated, but will wear masks, socially distance, go on only NCL excursions, etc., but we shall not undergo extra testing (especially at our expense) until/unless consistency and accuracy is improved.  We have cancelled our Nov. 2021 cruise plans because of all of the uncertainty of cruising covid requirements, but are eager to get back on board in later 2022 & 2023. We'll even endure more boosters if necessary.  Good luck to everyone else traveling in 2021 though.....I hope all goes smoothly!

[julig22]

I agree.  Too many false test results for me to be comfortable using testing as a criteria for boarding.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

So, this just happened to a friend in Michigan. Her daughter was being tested due to dance class.

 

-Last Wednesday: Rapid antigen test negative.

-Sunday molecular PCR test positive. Entire house put in quarantine. No symptoms.

-Today: Rapid Antigen test negative and it was determined that her daughter (and I quote) ..... recovered from covid 19 and/0r is an asymptomatic carrier and is not considered infectious and may return to work, school, athletics....."

 

These results make no sense to any of us so I started looking around on the FDA site and found this letter sent to health care providers regarding the number of false positive cases:

 

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

 

It makes sense that the number of false positives would go up in areas that have high covid sickness, but if I am reading this correctly, the number of false positive alarmingly high. Can anyone who understands this more clearly than I do please shed some light??? These tests can't possibly be that inaccurate, can they?

 

 

[HarpHarp]

You hit on one of the main reasons we postponed our cruises until next year. I'm a retired paramacology lab rat & I've seen too many tests in error or that required repetition. I'd hate to be denied boarding only to find the test was in error.

[Peachypooh]

7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

So, this just happened to a friend in Michigan. Her daughter was being tested due to dance class.

 

-Last Wednesday: Rapid antigen test negative.

-Sunday molecular PCR test positive. Entire house put in quarantine. No symptoms.

-Today: Rapid Antigen test negative and it was determined that her daughter (and I quote) ..... recovered from covid 19 and/0r is an asymptomatic carrier and is not considered infectious and may return to work, school, athletics....."

 

These results make no sense to any of us so I started looking around on the FDA site and found this letter sent to health care providers regarding the number of false positive cases:

 

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

 

It makes sense that the number of false positives would go up in areas that have high covid sickness, but if I am reading this correctly, the number of false positive alarmingly high. Can anyone who understands this more clearly than I do please shed some light??? These tests can't possibly be that inaccurate, can they?

 

 

Thank you for posting this!

[HarpHarp]

6 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

So, this just happened to a friend in Michigan. Her daughter was being tested due to dance class.

 

-Last Wednesday: Rapid antigen test negative.

-Sunday molecular PCR test positive. Entire house put in quarantine. No symptoms.

-Today: Rapid Antigen test negative and it was determined that her daughter (and I quote) ..... recovered from covid 19 and/0r is an asymptomatic carrier and is not considered infectious and may return to work, school, athletics....."

 

These results make no sense to any of us so I started looking around on the FDA site and found this letter sent to health care providers regarding the number of false positive cases:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

 

It makes sense that the number of false positives would go up in areas that have high covid sickness, but if I am reading this correctly, the number of false positive alarmingly high. Can anyone who understands this more clearly than I do please shed some light??? These tests can't possibly be that inaccurate, can they?

 

 

That actually makes sense.  The number of false positives stays the same, so that the predictive value decreases with the occurence in the population. Think of this. If you gave pregnancy tests to 100 70 year old women, and you got 1 positive test, the PPV would be zero. None of them are pregnant. 
Even FL, with a 10% infection rate would still show an unacceptable % of false positives especially if everyone who shows up is feeling well.  Also false negatives are sure to cause problems. With something like this virus. diagnosis is based on many things

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, HarpHarp said:

That actually makes sense.  The number of false positives stays the same, so that the predictive value decreases with the occurence in the population. Think of this. If you gave pregnancy tests to 100 70 year old women, and you got 1 positive test, the PPV would be zero. None of them are pregnant. 
Even FL, with a 10% infection rate would still show an unacceptable % of false positives especially if everyone who shows up is feeling well.  Also false negatives are sure to cause problems. With something like this virus. diagnosis is based on many things

 

Can you explain that again for me, I'm still not following (sorry).

 

I do understand that false positives increase in areas with less covid. Or decrease in areas highly infected.

 

What I don't understand is why, with such a high number of false positives, the tests are even being administered? 

 

[njhorseman]

23 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

What I don't understand is why, with such a high number of false positives, the tests are even being administered? 

Because if 20% of positives were "false" then 80% of positives are accurate. 

 

Edit: The piece you quoted is specifically for antigen tests, which have a notoriously high inaccuracy rate. PCR testing is far more reliable.

Edited April 27, 2021 by njhorseman

[BermudaBound2014]

13 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Because if 20% of positives were "false" then 80% of positives are accurate. 

 

Doesn't data derived from a test which has such a high margin of error give you pause?

 

Edit: Correct, those were for antigen tests. My question remains, why are we reporting data from antigen tests when there is such a high margin of error?

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[winterbliss]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

So, this just happened to a friend in Michigan. Her daughter was being tested due to dance class.

 

-Last Wednesday: Rapid antigen test negative.

-Sunday molecular PCR test positive. Entire house put in quarantine. No symptoms.

-Today: Rapid Antigen test negative and it was determined that her daughter (and I quote) ..... recovered from covid 19 and/0r is an asymptomatic carrier and is not considered infectious and may return to work, school, athletics....."

 

These results make no sense to any of us so I started looking around on the FDA site and found this letter sent to health care providers regarding the number of false positive cases:

 

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory

 

It makes sense that the number of false positives would go up in areas that have high covid sickness, but if I am reading this correctly, the number of false positive alarmingly high. Can anyone who understands this more clearly than I do please shed some light??? These tests can't possibly be that inaccurate, can they?

 

 

It's actually simple. Think of it this way....it's all nuts!

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, winterbliss said:

It's actually simple. Think of it this way....it's all nuts!

 

Amen! 

[RocketMan275]

4 hours ago, Peachypooh said:

I am ok with vaccine, shore excursions, mask, etc. as rules for cruising. I am not

OK with the testing requirement.

I'm OK with the testing requirement but I'm not OK with wearing a mask at anytime on a cruise.

[harkinmr]

3 hours ago, Peachypooh said:

I am ok with vaccine, shore excursions, mask, etc. as rules for cruising. I am not

OK with the testing requirement. The reason is that the tests are not 100 percent accurate.

How do I know if I show up it will show a false positive and then I have to deal with the

consequences. FWIW where I live the tests are not all that reliable. Mostly false negatives

(everyone in this one family has the same symptoms but one person tests negative??) and

One person tests positive, asks for a re-test and tests negative. 

 

If my perceptions are wrong and someone on this board knows for sure there are no false

positives please ally my fears. thank you.

If you are fully vaccinated there is growing evidence that you would not show positive asymptomatic infection on a viral test.  Breakthrough infections are occurring, but they are still rare, and if you had that kind of active infection and tested positive you would not be allowed to board.  For either vaccinated or unvaccinated passengers a positive antigen test would be double-checked with a PCR test.  If both are positive boarding would not be allowed.  The whole point of testing before boarding is to keep infection off of the ship.  With both a positive antigen and follow up positive PCR it is unlikely that a false showing would occur.  In the rare instance where that would be the case it is a risk that cruisers and the cruise lines have to take. unfortunately.

[winterbliss]

3 minutes ago, harkinmr said:

If you are fully vaccinated there is growing evidence that you would not show positive asymptomatic infection on a viral test.  Breakthrough infections are occurring, but they are still rare, and if you had that kind of active infection and tested positive you would not be allowed to board.  For either vaccinated or unvaccinated passengers a positive antigen test would be double-checked with a PCR test.  If both are positive boarding would not be allowed.  The whole point of testing before boarding is to keep infection off of the ship.  With both a positive antigen and follow up positive PCR it is unlikely that a false showing would occur.  In the rare instance where that would be the case it is a risk that cruisers and the cruise lines have to take. unfortunately.

Oh, for goodness sake. Wake up people! 

[BermudaBound2014]

15 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

I'm OK with the testing requirement but I'm not OK with wearing a mask at anytime on a cruise.

 

There is some good news for you today. 

 

-The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is issuing new guidance on outdoor mask use for fully vaccinated Americans.

-Fully vaccinated people can unmask outdoors if they are walking, running, hiking or biking alone or with members of their household. 

-The fully vaccinated can also go mask free while dining at an outdoor restaurant with friends from multiple households. 

-The new outdoor mask recommendations were announced Tuesday by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky during a White House Covid-19 briefing.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-27-21/h_0c886b8488890f311f105fa8cee5d62d

 

Of course, this doesn't mean cruise ships will immediately ditch the requirement, but it is a step in the right direction! 

[njhorseman]

30 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Doesn't data derived from a test which has such a high margin of error give you pause?

 

Edit: Correct, those were for antigen tests. My question remains, why are we reporting data from antigen tests when there is such a high margin of error?

 

 

 

In my state, NJ, antigen positives are not reported as "confirmed cases" but rather as "probable cases" if there is no positive confirmatory PCR test .

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, njhorseman said:

In my state, NJ, antigen positives are not reported as "confirmed cases" but rather as "probable cases" if there is no positive confirmatory PCR test .

 

I believe that is also the case in Hawaii, which helps some (but is still confusing at the surface).

 

I'm not sure if that is the case in Michigan. I know that my friends entire family was quarantined over the weekend. Her son missed a baseball tournament. The kids were not allowed to attend school due to a positive PCR test on Sunday, but when the test was redone today, it was determined that her daughter was recovered.

 

None of this makes sense to me.... but maybe it's just me :(. 

[farmersfight]

27 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

There is some good news for you today. 

 

-The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is issuing new guidance on outdoor mask use for fully vaccinated Americans.

-Fully vaccinated people can unmask outdoors if they are walking, running, hiking or biking alone or with members of their household. 

-The fully vaccinated can also go mask free while dining at an outdoor restaurant with friends from multiple households. 

-The new outdoor mask recommendations were announced Tuesday by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky during a White House Covid-19 briefing.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-27-21/h_0c886b8488890f311f105fa8cee5d62d

 

Of course, this doesn't mean cruise ships will immediately ditch the requirement, but it is a step in the right direction! 

 

With this new info from the CDC and with some cruise lines requiring crew & passengers be fully vaccinated, I would hope that the cruise lines would do away with a mask requirement on board. But, if I have to, I will wear my obedience mask in order to cruise.

[harkinmr]

32 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

There is some good news for you today. 

 

-The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is issuing new guidance on outdoor mask use for fully vaccinated Americans.

-Fully vaccinated people can unmask outdoors if they are walking, running, hiking or biking alone or with members of their household. 

-The fully vaccinated can also go mask free while dining at an outdoor restaurant with friends from multiple households. 

-The new outdoor mask recommendations were announced Tuesday by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky during a White House Covid-19 briefing.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-27-21/h_0c886b8488890f311f105fa8cee5d62d

 

Of course, this doesn't mean cruise ships will immediately ditch the requirement, but it is a step in the right direction! 

This certainly does help with any outdoor areas on the ship like the pool and outdoor restaurants.  This is still only vaccinated persons and doesn't apply to settings like larger events or in areas where social distancing is more of an issue.  It would still mean masks indoors.  I would imagine that the ships would still maintain at least that requirement simply because of social distancing issues indoors and particularly if they are not mandating vaccines.

[DCGuy64]

20 minutes ago, farmersfight said:

 

With this new info from the CDC and with some cruise lines requiring crew & passengers be fully vaccinated, I would hope that the cruise lines would do away with a mask requirement on board. But, if I have to, I will wear my obedience mask in order to cruise.

We should turn it into a drinking game. Get a bunch of people together near the bar, the rule is you have to take a drink every time a crew member comes over to tell you to mask up. 😄🍸🍺

[farmersfight]

1 minute ago, DCGuy64 said:

We should turn it into a drinking game. Get a bunch of people together near the bar, the rule is you have to take a drink every time a crew member comes over to tell you to mask up. 😄🍸🍺

 

I was under the impression that if you were actively drinking, you could keep the mask off. So my plan is, is to remain actively drinking at all times during my cruise (except when I'm passed out in my stateroom).

[DCGuy64]

2 minutes ago, farmersfight said:

 

I was under the impression that if you were actively drinking, you could keep the mask off. So my plan is, is to remain actively drinking at all times during my cruise (except when I'm passed out in my stateroom).

I mean, when I take the total time I'm on a cruise and subtract from that when I'm asleep, relaxing in my cabin, drinking, eating, swimming, or outside in the fresh air, there's not much time left. Win/win!

[GA Dave]

Funny mask story:  My son and I just spent four days at Universal Orlando.  On the second day, we went to Islands of Adventure in our "water ride" clothes so we could ride them all multiple times, then go back to our resort and change.  We literally walked onto Dudley Do-Right's Ripsaw Falls with no one else ahead of us.  In the process of getting into the log ride, we didn't hear the employee tell us we could take our masks off.  Big mistake.  I almost drowned in my mask when we went down the last hill!!  That thing was so saturated I could not get any air through it.  😄 

After that, we made sure to take off our masks on all three of the water rides.