Florida wins so Carnival can sail with kids

[jfunk138]

19 minutes ago, caniuseit said:

do you sincerely believe that on a ship with 5000 passengers with 2500 unvaccinated that there will not be an outbreak?

If an outbreak is defined as ~50 people test positive on a 3000 person ship and cruises are limited to 7 days, I am certain there will NOT be any "outbreaks" using CDC's threshold as long as the infection rate on land is as low as it is right now.  The incubation period of Covid:  2-14 days is far too long to seed an outbreak that size in 7 days regardless of what the rules are.

[MrMarc]

13 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

Read the ruling. The judge requested the CDCs data concerning their reasoning for all the restrictions in the CSO and obviously what they gave him wasn't adequate to keep an entire industry shut down while the rest of the nation is open. He may not be an epidemiologist but he did a pretty bang up job in pointing out the complete inconsistencies in the CDCs CSO and he is backed up by real data. 

No, they did not come into the hearing to argue the science behind the rules.  Now, when they bring it in, a single Judge, having no medical or epidemiological training, is going to decide whether that science is good enough or not.  What would be interesting would be that now that they know what the Judge wants, they bring in science to back every one of their recommendations.  Then what happens? 

[bdever]

1 minute ago, caniuseit said:

Ding ding ding. We have a winner. 
 

im all for that

 

who here would sign up for the unvaccinated cruise? Be honest

Definitely not me, and definitely not out of Florida 

[fatcat04]

4 minutes ago, caniuseit said:

So, let me see if I understand

 

A 20 minute taxi or Uber ride with 3 people should be treated like a 4 hour plane ride with 300 people. Thats  not different than a ship with 5000 people together for 7 days?
 

did you forget what happened last year when there was an outbreak on a cruise ship?  The ship OWNED those passengers until they could get them off the boat?

 

sorry, but wanting to treat them the same is ludicrous 

 

We have made a few rather significant advances in both vaccination and therapy since March of 2020 as is evidenced by the infection and death rates plummeting across the globe. We also have a far greater understand of what we are dealing with and how to mitigate risk... like NOT locking thousands of people in their cabins on a cruise ship for weeks. 

[balcony bound]

Just now, caniuseit said:

Ding ding ding. We have a winner. 
 

im all for that

 

who here would sign up for the unvaccinated cruise? Be honest

I am not afraid of unvaccinated folks, I probably shop with them all the time.  I do admit I wouldn't like some of the restrictions, but I'd probably go.  That was the benefit of getting vaccinated.

[jfunk138]

2 minutes ago, caniuseit said:

 

who here would sign up for the unvaccinated cruise? Be honest

Sign me up for the unvaccinated cruise.

[TNcruising02]

2 minutes ago, MrMarc said:

No, they did not come into the hearing to argue the science behind the rules.  Now, when they bring it in, a single Judge, having no medical or epidemiological training, is going to decide whether that science is good enough or not.  What would be interesting would be that now that they know what the Judge wants, they bring in science to back every one of their recommendations.  Then what happens? 

The judge asked for the science already.  I read an article with some of the questions he asked the CDC.  Obviously, the CDC did not present the data.  The judge ruled against them.  I think if the CDC had the data to back up their claims, they would have presented it.

Edited June 18, 2021 by TNcruising02

[TNcruising02]

3 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

We have made a few rather significant advances in both vaccination and therapy since March of 2020 as is evidenced by the infection and death rates plummeting across the globe. We also have a far greater understand of what we are dealing with and how to mitigate risk... like NOT locking thousands of people in their cabins on a cruise ship for weeks. 

Not to mention testing!  We can now test people before boarding.  This is one of the things the judge was saying to the CDC.  The CDC used stats from early 2020.

Edited June 19, 2021 by TNcruising02

[Cafedumonde]

4 minutes ago, caniuseit said:

Ding ding ding. We have a winner. 
 

im all for that

 

who here would sign up for the unvaccinated cruise? Be honest

Sign us up!!!  Because we had Covid and are not getting vaccinated (science!).  Ever!!!!  Wow, now I am so glad that I didn’t cancel our 2 ccl cruises.  I almost did it the other day too. I wasn’t looking forward to switching to royal to be honest.  But I would have.  I am simply over the moon right now.

[MrMarc]

6 minutes ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

Neither was the CDC's expert, who did a lousy job from everything I'm reading. The CDC provided no analytical justification for the 95% vaccination requirement or the 1.5% "outbreak threshold." The judge said if they can't back it up with data, then the measures are arbitrary and capricious. He told them if they are going to respond to his order, they better do it with data and methodology, rather than hand-waving and platitudes of "trust us, we're the experts." 

I agree, they did not come to the hearing with the amount of detail the Judge wanted.   I didn't read the notice of the hearing, so I am not sure they went in expecting to be asked for the details.  The lawyers rarely know this information, that type of information is usually brought out by having experts testify, not at a hearing.  But I do not know, so we will have to see what they come up with next.  The Judge is clearly telling them to settle it in mediation.  In my opinion that would be much better than a judicial decision in this case.

[fatcat04]

12 minutes ago, MrMarc said:

No, they did not come into the hearing to argue the science behind the rules.  Now, when they bring it in, a single Judge, having no medical or epidemiological training, is going to decide whether that science is good enough or not.  What would be interesting would be that now that they know what the Judge wants, they bring in science to back every one of their recommendations.  Then what happens? 

He apparently did indeed.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/06/10/judge-grills-cdc-on-florida-cruise-restrictions-in-hearing-over-desantis-lawsuit/

 

Should they bring the science next time (assuming those studies do exists), fine. But when a judge ask for something it is a wise idea to not be caught unprepared. I personally don't want the CDC out of the issue. I just want them to be reasonable in light of the present circumstances. 

Edited June 19, 2021 by fatcat04

[MrMarc]

7 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

The judge asked for the science already.  I read an article with some of the questions he asked the CDC.  Obviously, the CDC did not present the data.  The judge ruled against them.  I think if the CDC had the data to back up their claims, they would have presented it.

We will have to see.  It is clear that the lawyer did not know the science, that does not mean it does not exist, but I agree it sounds like they were not adequately prepared.  I don't think that will happen again.

[caniuseit]

8 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

We have made a few rather significant advances in both vaccination and therapy since March of 2020 as is evidenced by the infection and death rates plummeting across the globe. We also have a far greater understand of what we are dealing with and how to mitigate risk... like NOT locking thousands of people in their cabins on a cruise ship for weeks. 

So, other than the vaccination what have we learned that would be acceptable to the masses that would prevent an outbreak on a ship?

 

masks? Social distance? Hand washing?

 

serious question. 
 

 

 

[MrMarc]

3 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

He apparently did.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/06/10/judge-grills-cdc-on-florida-cruise-restrictions-in-hearing-over-desantis-lawsuit/

 

Should they bring the science next time (assuming those studies do exists), fine. But when a judge ask for something it is a wise idea to not be caught unprepared. 

That is absolutely true, it sounds like they were totally unprepared for the detailed answers the Judge was looking for.  If it exists they will present it next time.  If it doesn't, then everyone that has been saying they are not following the science will be proven correct, and people like me will be proven wrong.  I will accept it if the Judge says it is not sufficient, but will people who are against the CDC accept it if the Judge says there is enough science?  My bet would be that there would be a lot of talk about conspiracy, the Judge being bought of, etc., etc., etc.

[evandbob]

So if the CDC response to the judge isn't allowed, and ships get to sail unencumbered with any mitigation efforts and a bunch of unvaxxed people, how long before a super spreader event occurs?  Or a sailing is cut short, or embargoed in a limbo state and refused to dock anywhere due to onboard transmission?

 

I hope those on board will take videos of people refusing to wear masks or social distance, fight with staff about safety protocols or escape from a cabin quarantine. Let the unvaxxed celebrate their win for personal liberty. 

 

Maybe if they are generous enough, they can extend their arguments about medical liberty to protect women and their doctors.

[jfunk138]

1 minute ago, caniuseit said:

So, other than the vaccination what have we learned that would be acceptable to the masses that would prevent an outbreak on a ship?

 

 

 

Limit cruises to 7 days... It's impossible for a Covid outbreak to seed a 50 person outbreak in 7 days with its 2-14 day incubation time.   

 

For comparison, noro is 12-24 hours incubation time, that is why there are so many noro outbreaks on cruises.

[MrMarc]

1 minute ago, jfunk138 said:

Limit cruises to 7 days... It's impossible for a Covid outbreak to seed a 50 person outbreak in 7 days with its 2-14 day incubation time.   

 

For comparison, noro is 12-24 hours incubation time, that is why there are so many noro outbreaks on cruises.

Are saying is that there may well be an outbreak on a ship, but we wouldn't realize it until everyone had gone back to their homes?  And if so, I don't see that as a good thing.  But maybe I am misunderstanding you.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, jfunk138 said:

Limit cruises to 7 days... It's impossible for a Covid outbreak to seed a 50 person outbreak in 7 days with its 2-14 day incubation time.   

 

For comparison, noro is 12-24 hours incubation time, that is why there are so many noro outbreaks on cruises.

One infected person on a cruise line bus from the airport to the ship. Infected person might get stopped at the ship, rest of the bus could turn positive 2-14 days later. Far from impossible.

[AtoZgirl]

1 hour ago, scendro said:

I really don’t think this changes anything for Carnival’s July and August cruises, they will go forward with what they’ve announced - everyone must be vaxxed except a small amount that apply for and get approved exemptions- of which will be required to be masked while on the ship.  I don’t see Carnival doing a 180 

I don’t understand why people keep saying the 5% of unvaccinated will have to wear mask. It’s NOT true! Mask wearing is recommended but only required during certain times and in certain places, like most of the 95%.  

[skywonder]

2 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:

Many of us felt the CDC was not being reasonable.  It appears the judge agrees.

Exactly! It is a good day and a great win!

Edited June 19, 2021 by skywonder

[evandbob]

If Florida wins, does Alaskan cruising stop?

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/florida-cruise-lawsuit-alaska-impact/

[jfunk138]

Just now, MrMarc said:

Are saying is that there may well be an outbreak on a ship, but we wouldn't realize it until everyone had gone back to their homes?  And if so, I don't see that as a good thing.  But maybe I am misunderstanding you.

Thats what we do with airlines and other international travel.  As long as nobody has symptoms on the plane, off go the passengers into contact tracing abyss.  

 

And 50 cases is still substantially less than most states are seeing on a daily basis and few seem particularly concerned about those numbers on land.

[caniuseit]

8 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

Limit cruises to 7 days... It's impossible for a Covid outbreak to seed a 50 person outbreak in 7 days with its 2-14 day incubation time.   

 

For comparison, noro is 12-24 hours incubation time, that is why there are so many noro outbreaks on cruises.

Or, require vaccines. 
 

Why should everyone have to jump through all these hoops to avoid a vaccine

 

i fully support your right not to get vaccinated, but going on a cruise is not a right. 
 

 

[TNcruising02]

2 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

Thats what we do with airlines and other international travel.  As long as nobody has symptoms on the plane, off go the passengers into contact tracing abyss.  

 

People use public transportation daily.  I am sure many of the passengers using public transportation have had covid and spread it to other travelers.  That is a risk of traveling. At least the cruise ships will have testing, when needed, unlike every other mode of travel where anyone can slap on a mask and they are good to go.

[caniuseit]

30 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

The incubation period of Covid:  2-14 days is far too long to seed an outbreak that size in 7 days regardless of what the rules are

So, what’s the reasonable answer here?  Forbid cruises longer than 7 days?

or allow longer cruises to require vaccines?

 

The answer seems quite obvious. Let the cruise line run their business as they see fit.