U.S. appeals court lifts CDC cruise ship restrictions in win for Florida

[MrMarc]

8 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

This is very good news for the cruise lines.  Now, they are free to decide for themselves how best to run their own businesses and use the CDC's rules as guidance.  They can operate without the fear of the industry being shut down and destroyed by the CDC's ridiculous prior mandates.  The cruise stocks should start rising again.

I totally disagree.  I think this tennis match will be more harmful to the industry than the CSO ever would have been.  With the CSO in place they had consistency and predictability.  Now they have neither, at least for cruises from Florida.  If they change their announced protocols, vaccinated passengers will be mad, if they don't unvaccinated passengers will be mad.  They are really in a no win situation now.  My guess is they will try to ignore this and continue from Florida as they have planned, if they can.  Right now, that isn't even clear.

[BlerkOne]

19 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

It might force their hand with the Florida law.  We'll have to wait and see.

Whose hand? NCL Gem was siting in Miami when I debarked Horizon. I bet they sail as scheduled.

[cruisingguy007]

Just now, jimbo5544 said:

Greedy investors, you have to be kidding. Please tell me why.

 

Pfft, you make it sound like it's a bad thing. LOL. Investors like money, nothing wrong with that, you seem sensitive. 

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Of course it is relevant, it continues to confirm the CDC overstepped and acted outside their boundaries.  It sets precedent for the future. 

Baloney. Cruise lines will continue to follow CDC guidelines. Politicians will continue trying to forward their career.

[MrMarc]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

Whose hand? NCL Gem was siting in Miami when I debarked Horizon. I bet they sail as scheduled.

They have said they were going to sail 100% vaccinated, I do not see how that is possible now.  In fact, I don't see how Carnival will be able to keep their 95%/5% in Florida now.  And the fact that the rules are subject to change at any time leaves the public with no faith in what the Cruise lines will actually do.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, MrMarc said:

They have said they were going to sail 100% vaccinated, I do not see how that is possible now.  In fact, I don't see how Carnival will be able to keep their 95%/5% in Florida now.  And the fact that the rules are subject to change at any time leaves the public with no faith in what the Cruise lines will actually do.

Watch. They will.

[AtSeaWithChris]

18 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

This is very good news for the cruise lines.  Now, they are free to decide for themselves how best to run their own businesses and use the CDC's rules as guidance.  They can operate without the fear of the industry being shut down and destroyed by the CDC's ridiculous prior mandates.  The cruise stocks should start rising again.

Exactly. This way they can follow the science and make appropriate changes as they need when they need to. Their goal is to provide a safe environment and an attractive product and after 15 months of no income you can bet that they will do what the science tells them to do if they want to remain in business.

[AtSeaWithChris]

3 minutes ago, MrMarc said:

And the fact that the rules are subject to change at any time leaves the public with no faith in what the Cruise lines will actually do.

This

[BlerkOne]

24 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

This is very good news for the cruise lines.  Now, they are free to decide for themselves how best to run their own businesses and use the CDC's rules as guidance.  They can operate without the fear of the industry being shut down and destroyed by the CDC's ridiculous prior mandates.  The cruise stocks should start rising again.

It is a non-event. But they still aren't free. There is the absurd Florida law interfering with the industry from requiring vaccine passport, for example.

[AtSeaWithChris]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Baloney. Cruise lines will continue to follow CDC guidelines. Politicians will continue trying to forward their career.

I agree the cruise lines will continue to follow CDC guidelines. Carnival especially likes to tell people they they follow CDC guidelines as well as other agencies guidelines. They want to keep a good relationship so they won't add any animosity that is not warranted. BUT this takes away some power from the CDC and lifts heavy handed regulations based on anecdotal flip flops on policy.

[MrMarc]

9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Watch. They will.

I really hope so.  There are far too many moving parts for me to disagree with you.  Whatever happens, it will be interesting.

[TNcruising02]

Airlines have been able to operate without being shut down.  Other businesses have been able to use reasonable protocols to run their businesses.  The CDC acted like the cruise lines were incapable of using safe protocols to operate their businesses.  You can bet the cruise lines are thrilled that they won't be shut down again and lose billions more dollars just because the CDC decides they haven't met their strict requirements.  The cruise lines want to operate safely.  I think they can be trusted to do so just like hotels, restaurants, airlines, buses, trains, and every other darn business in the US.  Now they aren't singled out.  It's a good thing.  

People think just because the cruise lines are free of the stranglehold by the CDC that it will be a free for all.  They will operate in the manner they deem safe and effective.  If people don't like it, they don't have to cruise.  Just like they don't have to fly, go to a restaurant, visit an amusement park, or one of any number of business industries.  This is a win for the cruise lines.  They don't need the CDC's overreach and hysterical fears and biases to operate safely.  

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

Doesn't matter the Cruise Lines will continue to do what is working and won't jeopardize themselves by doing anything unsafe, IE cruising with full cruises with a lot of unvaccinated. 

[SDN]

39 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

The cruise stocks should start rising again.

CCL is down after hours since this broke. The only thing keeping cruise stocks in the game is their cautious approach. If they opened up 100% capacity tomorrow with no testing and unlimited unvaccinated, the bottom would fall out. Everyone knows another shutdown and they're toast.

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

WOW!  I wonder how that is going to change Carnival's protocols?

 

They aren't. 

[ScottsSweetie]

24 minutes ago, MrMarc said:

They have said they were going to sail 100% vaccinated, I do not see how that is possible now.  In fact, I don't see how Carnival will be able to keep their 95%/5% in Florida now.  And the fact that the rules are subject to change at any time leaves the public with no faith in what the Cruise lines will actually do.

ALL rules are subject to change at any time. Anybody who has ever cruised Carnival knows that rules have always been just "suggestions" anyway.

[jimbo5544]

25 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Baloney. Cruise lines will continue to follow CDC guidelines. Politicians will continue trying to forward their career.

Pressed ham.  What did they do from October till may?

[TNcruising02]

1 minute ago, SDN said:

CCL is down after hours since this broke. The only thing keeping cruise stocks in the game is their cautious approach. If they opened up 100% capacity tomorrow with no testing and unlimited unvaccinated, the bottom would fall out. Everyone knows another shutdown and they're toast.

We'll see.  Now the cruise ships can operate with 90% vaccinated if they choose to do so without doing test cruises.  So we will see if the stock starts creeping up once more cruise ships are in operation, more exemptions can be granted, and more families can cruise without rescheduling or cancelling.  The tight noose of the CDC has been removed.  We will just have to see how the cruise lines ease back into to operations, but at least the CDC isn't going to be able to just shut the industry down again.

[Fredric22]

1 minute ago, TNcruising02 said:

We'll see.  Now the cruise ships can operate with 90% vaccinated if they choose to do so without doing test cruises.  So we will see if the stock starts creeping up once more cruise ships are in operation, more exemptions can be granted, and more families can cruise without rescheduling or cancelling.  The tight noose of the CDC has been removed.  We will just have to see how the cruise lines ease back into to operations, but at least the CDC isn't going to be able to just shut the industry down again.

I think that is the most realistic outcome if this ruling stands.  Carnival will (eventually not within the next couple of months) allow more exemptions for children because they wont have to keep it to 5%.  I think that will be the first step towards returning to "normal."  

[AtSeaWithChris]

4 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

Airlines have been able to operate without being shut down.  Other businesses have been able to use reasonable protocols to run their businesses.  The CDC acted like the cruise lines were incapable of using safe protocols to operate their businesses.

Yes. One thing that's different is that airlines see a passenger for a day and cruises see them for days. It's no less of a chance to catch covid on an airplane you just don't see them beyond that day. Viruses don't care where they spread, they spread. You just see the situational changes during a cruise more than you see in air traffic. But they both participate in the spread of viruses equally. Cruising has been made the example of "look we are trying to fix it" for the low information news watchers. Not much science or the CDC would not have lost in 2 courts, so far, when challenged. 

[cruisingguy007]

19 minutes ago, SDN said:

CCL is down after hours since this broke. The only thing keeping cruise stocks in the game is their cautious approach. If they opened up 100% capacity tomorrow with no testing and unlimited unvaccinated, the bottom would fall out. Everyone knows another shutdown and they're toast.

 

YUP! 100% The short would be on like donkey kong. But, if they kept the other ports vaccinated cruises, it might be seen differently or could be sold differently anyway. Package it up as an aggressive opportunity to go after all the money. Would the unvaccinated cruises last? Probably not, but it would be an interesting move.  

Edited July 24, 2021 by cruisingguy007

[keels81]

10 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

We'll see.  Now the cruise ships can operate with 90% vaccinated if they choose to do so without doing test cruises.  So we will see if the stock starts creeping up once more cruise ships are in operation, more exemptions can be granted, and more families can cruise without rescheduling or cancelling.  The tight noose of the CDC has been removed.  We will just have to see how the cruise lines ease back into to operations, but at least the CDC isn't going to be able to just shut the industry down again.

I think you underestimate how many currently booked through the end of October booked last-minute in anticipation of sailing under the current protocols. If they were to change the just recently announced protocols back to a free-for-all that some people seem to want, I'd definitely be requesting a refund as that's not the what I purchased a cruise fare under. 

 

And, frankly, according to a story this past week in Bloomberg News, even with reduced capacity and limited children on board these sailings are only seeing a drop in on-board spend of roughly $50k per sailing (on 7-day sailings that usually bring in $1.5mm+ in on-board spend a sailing), so no ... I don't think there's going to be an immediate rush to allow unvaccinated children on at the levels they were before. Will the add more exemption spaces? Sure. Will they bring back kids clubs, etc., that makes it worthwhile for a family to spend money on bringing kids on a cruise unvaccinated? Doubtful. Those and the pricey up-charge things like insurance and testing will likely be around until kids can be vaccinated.

 

Look at Disney -- they're allowing unvaccinated children and adults, but everyone HAS to be masked everywhere indoors. Multiple spaces are closed. Kids Clubs are limited to 15 kids per area MAX and will have a time restriction enforced (either for the day or over the course of the cruise). Royal also has restrictions on how much "club" time an unvaccinated child can spend in a Kids Club (15 total hours over a 7-day sailing).  There's bad optics of people getting Covid and then there's terrible optics of a ton of children on a sailing getting Covid. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by keels81

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, Fredric22 said:

I think that is the most realistic outcome if this ruling stands.  Carnival will (eventually not within the next couple of months) allow more exemptions for children because they wont have to keep it to 5%.  I think that will be the first step towards returning to "normal."  

I think more realistic is that one or more vaccines will be fully approved for adults and the experimental excuse becomes even less believable. And by October ages 2 and up will have a vaccine available and the 5% will shrink to something closer to 0%.

[TNcruising02]

2 minutes ago, AtSeaWithChris said:

Yes. One thing that's different is that airlines see a passenger for a day and cruises see them for days. It's no less of a chance to catch covid on an airplane you just don't see them beyond that day. Viruses don't care where they spread, they spread. You just see the situational changes during a cruise more than you see in air traffic. But they both participate in the spread of viruses equally. Cruising has been made the example of "look we are trying to fix it" for the low information news watchers. Not much science or the CDC would not have lost in 2 courts, so far, when challenged. 

What's crazy to me is that people can fly without even taking a covid test and sit within inches of another person for hours.  The CDC was fine with it and is still fine with it, yet the risk is high.  Cruising was singled out and shut down.  Very hypocritical since it's obvious that sitting within inches of a covid positive person for hours on end is high risk.

[MrMarc]

The other issue is what if they stop following the CDC rules and the rules are reinstated?  I don't think they will change anything they are not forced to until the Supreme Court rules.