Rhine water levels 2022 and similar topics

[rizello]

Notamermaid:  thank you so much for your helpful info

 

as a newbie, I’m curious:  at what number do the rivers become unnavigable?  
 

foe example if Koblenz is at 89 cm, is that good or bad?  I’m watching the numbers but don’t know how to interpret them to see when they reach the level of not being able to pass through 

 

Thanks again!

[CastleCritic]

I saw the coverage last year and it instantly reminded me of the high water marks that the guides tend to point out on buildings during river adjacent tours in Europe.  I would never want to be impacted by those floods. 

[notamermaid]

2 hours ago, rizello said:

as a newbie, I’m curious:  at what number do the rivers become unnavigable?  

You are right, it is very difficult if not impossible to relate the figures and I will deliver on my promise to explain a bit more, i.e. 78cm at Kaub, etc. shortly.

 

2 hours ago, rizello said:

foe example if Koblenz is at 89 cm, is that good or bad?

That is not good but not as bad as the same figure appearing at Kaub. But even at Kaub this is not too bad. One could say that the navigation channel becomes narrower and shallower with the bumps in the river bed getting closer to the hull of the ship with every centimetre of level lost.

 

Important note: the Rhine River is never "closed", i.e. in drought the authorities do not step in and stop river traffic (unless there is an imminent danger due to a sudden hazard like a ship stuck at an angle in the navigation channel). One by one ships stop sailing for safety reasons based on the individual draft.

 

notamermaid

 

[worldtraveller99]

Does anyone know any long range forecasts for it to rain again? We don't go till the Christmas Markets at the end of November.

[rizello]

2 hours ago, worldtraveller99 said:

Does anyone know any long range forecasts for it to rain again? We don't go till the Christmas Markets at the end of November.

I use the timeanddate.com info to at least give me historical weather and a 15 day forecast.  I find it very helpful.

 

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/

 

[Canal archive]

Thanks rizello interesting but the Bathe area is just a tad higher, at the moment, okay semantics but an interesting addition to my weather thingy. Ive used Accuweather for years as they used to provide an Athritise index which for myself was very useful.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Canal archive

[worldtraveller99]

Thank you, I shall keep looking!

 

[notamermaid]

Interesting question. Long range I do not know any apart from what you folks have mentioned and historical date I get from German weather sights. Forecasts here tend to stop at 14 days into the future, I guess after that it becomes too vague. Meteorologists do modelling now for Autumn but that is too much expertise for me to deal with really.

 

Forecasts - Kaub now has a nice and very helpful 14 day probability chart for the river level. I tend not to use it here for our purposes because it gets too confusing and too vague to look into the future for 14 days every day anew. What I will say about it is that it does not look too good. When the level at Kaub falls below 78cm it is likely to stay there for eight consecutive days. However, we have not fully got there yet and the figure only appears on Sunday in the forecast. With a bit of luck - the tentative forecast suggests so - Kaub should not drop much further than 78cm. May the further decline be halted and the river stays roughly at that low level? It would not be good as it makes navigating tricky but it would be good because as far as I know all river cruise ships can sail at levels in the upper 70's.

 

15 hours ago, rizello said:

as a newbie, I’m curious:  at what number do the rivers become unnavigable?  

My last sentence above is almost the closest I will be able to get to without annoying an expert. The river cruise ships of 135m length with a deep draft are naturally the first affected by the low levels and figures of between 70cm and 60cm may impact those ships. The river Rhine always stays navigable for small barges, a few excursion boats depending on area, even in 2018 the smallest river cruise ships could sail (it was difficult to establish, but it appears those with 90m length and shorter made it through the Rhine Gorge).

 

So why is that? The Rhine is free flowing from after the lock at Iffezheim all the way into the Netherlands and partly relies on the tributaries supplying much water. This works really but in drought the shallows and rocks from around Worms and up to Koblenz present a problem. From around Worms to somewhere before the Rhine Gorge the navigation channel is dredged deep enough to cause few problems (at this low level, it causes problems when the level gets worse) but in the Rhine Gorge it is shallower and the nature of the river bed prevents deep dredging in parts (try blasting dense rock). Note that "navigation channel" is not "river", i.e. the river in the Rhine Gorge is very deep in a few bits, really uneven surface.

 

To the figure 78cm at Kaub. At this level the navigation channel is 190cm deep. This means the authorities try to maintain this level and the shipping industry can plan to have that depth. In practice it is more complicated, but that is a matter for the logistics companies and captains. With every centimetre less on the gauge, the navigation channel get shallower and the depth of 190cm is not there, but it also becomes narrower and more bumpy, i.e. more dangerous to sail.

 

What I mean with "narrower" and "bumps" is shown here on a schematic drawing of the Danube:

taken from: https://www.viadonau.org/wirtschaft/services-transportplanung/abladetiefenberechnung

 

Imagine a wide navigation channel on the Rhine that is wide enough for two ships but in drought gets narrower and passage is not possible, creating waiting time. Just one aspect in a few places along the way on your journey from Mainz to Koblenz. And imagine an even bumpier river bed. Part of the Rhine Gorge is deeper than at Kaub, so closer to Koblenz it gets a little easier again. After Koblenz, the navigation channel is dredged deeper again and generally speaking is wider as well.

 

Okay, Kaub at 84cm, forecast for tomorrow 81cm to 80cm.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

 

[Nanagranny]

On 7/14/2022 at 4:02 PM, worldtraveller99 said:

Does anyone know any long range forecasts for it to rain again? We don't go till the Christmas Markets at the end of November.

Google “long range weather forecast”

[wellerjohn]

This isn't good...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/lack-of-water-in-europe-s-most-important-river-starts-to-bite#xj4y7vzkg

 

[notamermaid]

9 hours ago, wellerjohn said:

This isn't good...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/lack-of-water-in-europe-s-most-important-river-starts-to-bite#xj4y7vzkg

 

Thank you for the link. Bloomberg I find sometimes a bit "panicky", but I would say they are basically right. Seeing that the logistics industry plans long term and commodities are actually difficult to put either on lorries or on rail, it is good to be forewarned and plan ahead.

 

For river cruising, hmm, who knows what will be in August? Or September? It is certainly not good to read the low levels in July, an unusual occurrence so early in Summer.

 

Kaub is at 79cm. Forecast for tomorrow 76cm, outlook for Monday 74cm. As of today a recovery to 100cm by the end of the month is highly unlikely.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Kaub gauge is at 75cm right now, so has fallen below the GlW navigation mark of 78cm that I have explained above. Not good. Let us have a look at how this has happened, a graph of the last month (past 30 days):

 

Just for info, in 2018 a new low level record was set, frame taken from the Kaub gauge info sheet:

 

If the level falls much further than it is now we will see ship swaps, it may not happen soon and it may not happen in July at all. We cannot know but need to be aware of the risk. But companies may need to make logistical adjustments before that, like moving to a different docking area from the standard one. And they are prepared. Here is the link to an article:

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/NicheLuxury/articles/River-Cruise-Lines-Prepare-to-Deal-with-Low-Water-Levels-on-the-Rhine

 

I have been to the river today. Yep, it is low. Barges and tankers are running, just with lower load.

 

Forecast for tomorrow: stable at 74cm, Tuesday probably as well, Wednesday likely going down to 70cm. Outlook towards next weekend no recovery, but no further drop. Fingers crossed.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[bluestocking7]

Thanks for the info and the link @notamermaid   So the standard procedure for low water is to bus passengers past the problem area and put them on a different ship?  I don't understand the reference to the Tauck guy about their land-based partners--would they just change the whole thing to a bus tour?

 

Basel is burning up this week.  Still forecast to be in the 80s next week, where we are due to board.  Yikes!

 

--Jennifer

[DougK]

7 hours ago, notamermaid said:

If the level falls much further than it is now we will see ship swaps, it may not happen soon and it may not happen in July at all. We cannot know but need to be aware of the risk. But companies may need to make logistical adjustments before that, like moving to a different docking area from the standard one. And they are prepared. Here is the link to an article:

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/NicheLuxury/articles/River-Cruise-Lines-Prepare-to-Deal-with-Low-Water-Levels-on-the-Rhine

 

 

I think this is already happening. I've been tracking the Scenic Pearl, which left Basel on Wednesday for a Rhine/Moselle cruise to Amsterdam. It appears that they decided there was too much risk of being stranded upriver of the Rhine Gorge, so they cut short their upper Rhine stops, and hustled down the river a day early, spending an unscheduled day in Andernach. Of course, since I'm not on the ship, I have no idea what they did about their tours. I'm guessing they might have done longer bus trips to try to keep the original tours, or maybe they arranged different tours. I *think* they're now back on their regular itinerary for the rest of the cruise, but we'll have to see what the track shows for the next 10 days.

[CPT Trips]

4 hours ago, bluestocking7 said:

I don't understand the reference to the Tauck guy about their land-based partners--would they just change the whole thing to a bus tour?

That is always a possibility, and not just with Tauck.

 

[Canal archive]

DougK having been on board a Scenic vessel during a low water situation it’s as with all river cruise vessels up to the captain! plus any instructions from the local authorities. Our Captain asked at our port talk if he had the opportunity did he go for it or play safe, now asking a ship full of Aussies and Brits that is a no brainer. So after a superb dinner and very convivial evening we all went to bed! At breakfast and still moving the question was what happened so update during breakfast. After a three way discussion between two cargo barges and one passenger vessel in the middle of the night it was cargo - passenger - cargo and go for it according to a few wide awake passengers there was some scrapping but not to alarming and the Captain reported thanks from the cargo vessels. Scenic vessels are fairly shallow draughted.

[notamermaid]

11 hours ago, bluestocking7 said:

So the standard procedure for low water is to bus passengers past the problem area and put them on a different ship?

Not sure if this is standard for all ships and all cruise lines. I will put it this way: companies using the 135m ships have over the years established a timetable-like itinerary arrangement. Two ships will meet in or near the low stretch. When a low water problem arises, the two ships are stuck on both sides, but making them close enough in geography terms to be able to bridge that gap by taking the passengers to the respective other ships. Works well on the Danube in Bavaria in general. I am not sure if the same arrangements apply to the smaller ships.

 

The same is the case for the Rhine. But here the companies have a problem. The most scenic part of the Rhine is the Rhine Gorge, the problem area itself. You do not want to see this on a bus really. So if possible, a company will try to hire an excursion boat (or buy tickets for an excursion boat) to sail you through. There at a next convenient dock your swapping river cruise ship will wait, or you will be taken for some more kilometres on a bus to meet your ship. A procedure that I cannot guarantee will happen on your itinerary.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

13 hours ago, bluestocking7 said:

I don't understand the reference to the Tauck guy about their land-based partners--would they just change the whole thing to a bus tour?

Not sure what that is supposed to mean either. As far as I know all major river cruise lines have contracts with local coach operators and can use them also for necessary longer trips beside the excursions. Land trips in the area? - It does not make Tauck that better suited as such, but perhaps the gentleman meant indeed that they will change the whole itinerary to make it a coach trip. If I was a prospective Tauck cruiser I would ask the company direct and about exactly my itinerary.

 

11 hours ago, DougK said:

I think this is already happening. I've been tracking the Scenic Pearl, which left Basel on Wednesday for a Rhine/Moselle cruise to Amsterdam. It appears that they decided there was too much risk of being stranded upriver of the Rhine Gorge, so they cut short their upper Rhine stops, and hustled down the river a day early, spending an unscheduled day in Andernach.

Interesting. A German company has also made adjustments to itineraries already. I usually do not read much about this, it does not make the news, but a more specialised search on the internet gave me that info.

 

I checked the track of the Scenic Pearl and noticed the unplanned stop in Andernach. As far as I know Scenic never uses that port (normally).

 

Kaub gauge is at 77cm. That is higher than the forecast for today but I see it only as a reaction to the slight up in the level at Maxau in the Upper Rhine valley early yesterday.  Adjusted forecast for tomorrow is 74cm with a slow decline that may get the river to 69cm on Thursday. Probability chart now puts the chance of a recovery to 100cm by the end of the month at almost zero.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[bluestocking7]

@notamermaid Thank you for all this information.  Sounds like we will be getting on a bus for part of our Basel-Amsterdam cruise July 27.  The cruise line handles your luggage for you, right?

[notamermaid]

1 hour ago, bluestocking7 said:

@notamermaid Thank you for all this information.  Sounds like we will be getting on a bus for part of our Basel-Amsterdam cruise July 27.  The cruise line handles your luggage for you, right?

I cannot say that you will be on a bus at all. It really depends on company and captain and the logistics of navigating - or not- your specific ship through the shallows. Remember that being on a smaller ship than a 135m one could play in your favour (You have not given the name of your ship I think and you may prefer to keep that private, no problem). But yes, keep the possibility in the back of your mind. Your cruise line should contact you in a few days time about this, i.e. closer to the date. In the past few years the lines have been getting a bit more forthcoming with such info, I think the complaints by passengers of lack of info during the disastrous autumn of 2018 worked wonders. I hope you will be well informed.

 

As regards the luggage and all that, I will throw the question into the round: folks out there, what was your ship swap on the Rhine like, how did it work, when was it?

 

Kaub gauge is at 69cm now, beating the forecast (in an unfavourable way). It may in all likelihood recover a tiny bit as we saw that dip at Maxau upstream during last night. A return to 78cm, well, that looks increasingly unlikely in the chart. But rain is forecast for tomorrow and I would be happy to be proven otherwise.

 

notamermaid

 

[bluestocking7]

It's Tauck cruise on MS Inspire, which I think is a smaller ship - 120 draft 

[Haqdeluxe]

1 hour ago, bluestocking7 said:

It's Tauck cruise on MS Inspire, which I think is a smaller ship - 120 draft 

135m ship with a 1.2m/120cm draft...

[Poulsbo Cruisers]

I heard that Uniworld has already canceled cruises on the Rhine. We are scheduled to leave from Amsterdam on the Avalon Imagery II on July 28th. I’m wondering what the odds are that it will actually sail. 

[notamermaid]

2 hours ago, Poulsbo Cruisers said:

We are scheduled to leave from Amsterdam on the Avalon Imagery II on July 28th.

The Avalon Imagery is 110m long so has a slight advantage over the longer ones. If that is enough we will have to see. Right now as regards low water there is "no need to panic" for her and the others of similar length and also the 135m ships will be mostly sailing right now (I cannot follow ships on the tracker sites without the subscription as the signal tends to be too weak in the Rhine Gorge). But slowed down they will be to some extent and if a company thinks the logistics are too complicated they may well decide on cancelling or major amendments to the itinerary. Again, I see good odds for the Imagery II to sail.

 

Problem will be if ships that sail the Grand European are stuck in Austria and do not make it to the Main and Rhine. I believe that is the problem with one Uniworld ship (so far).

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

3 hours ago, bluestocking7 said:

It's Tauck cruise on MS Inspire, which I think is a smaller ship - 120 draft 

As Haqdeluxe has confirmed, she is the full possible length of 135m but the low draft which I think is the one when empty (of passengers and ballast) puts her in the lower range of those large ships as far as I know. Potentially helpful by - don't know, an inch? Your captain will know.

 

Not fun, but all the big companies have encountered the low water problems in previous years to some extent. Many crew members and captains will remember the drought of 2018. Tauck will be prepared and I am sure will take good care of you. I will be unhappy together with you if they do not.

 

notamermaid