NCL to allow unvaccinated children beginning March 1

[cruisingguy007]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

So I've pretty much been the lone gal preaching that NCL can't survive with 100% mask mandate here on the forum since cruising resumed last summer. At that time, I said NCL would only last 6 months with 100% vaccination requirement. I was wrong. NCL lasted 8 months before changing their 100% vaccination rule. I do see the rules changing to allow unvaccinated, but not by this summer. I'm going on record predicting early 2023 if niche markets haven't evolved by then. Of course, this is just my opinion and I mean no personal disrespect.

 

If this thread shows us anything it's that there are people who want 100% vaccinated cruising. There are also people who want 100% masking. There are people who want no masking, and I suspect there are people who also want to cruise with no vaccine requirement.  Ultimately, the market will decide which group will prevail, but in the meantime, niche markets offering these choices seems the next logical step.

 

I agree with all that. Though, optics matter right now and the lines are walking a tightrope. I'm sure they'd like to do away with all this and be back 100%. I do think that enough people will be vaccinated/boosted and/or have already gotten covid, that the numbers will justify a change in position. Hospitalizations may burn themselves out by summer. If there is a metric for removing the requirement, they will do so as soon as possible, since the busy seasons are important for the lines. The only way I see this going to 2023 is if enough cruisers are taking vaccinated cruises (after dropping the mask/testing mandates) to keep numbers profitable and/or another variant of some kind shows up. Both of those would prolong majority vaccinated cruises. Time will tell. For me, it's the masking, testing, contract tracing nonsense and quarantine garbage that are my biggest peeves, vaccines, not so much, though I'd have no problems with unvaccinated on board and hope they get to eventually cruise along side us. I totally understand the frustration.  

[cruzingthebriny]

6 hours ago, PaperSniper4 said:

Could you please give the link for that?

 

Thanks.

 

 Doug

https://www.ncl.com/ca/en/cruise-faq/are-face-coverings-required

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, cruisingguy007 said:

For me, it's the masking, testing, contract tracing nonsense and quarantine garbage that are my biggest peeves, vaccines, not so much, though I'd have no problems with unvaccinated on board and hope they get to eventually cruise along side us. I totally understand the frustration.  

 

BINGO! I'm squarely in the 'stop the madness' campaign. Asymptomatic close contract quarantines identified by unnecessary testing will kill the entire industry. 

 

I think we are on the same page regarding the necessity of changing protocols, we just differ in terms of the timeline. I'll buy you a beer if vaccine mandates are removed prior to 2023 🙂

[cruisingguy007]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

BINGO! I'm squarely in the 'stop the madness' campaign. Asymptomatic close contract quarantines identified by unnecessary testing will kill the entire industry. 

 

I think we are on the same page regarding the necessity of changing protocols, we just differ in terms of the timeline. I'll buy you a beer if vaccine mandates are removed prior to 2023 🙂

 

I'll take that! Deal! 😁 Hope you get to cruise sooner than later. The madness is frustrating for many of us. Hope springs eternal. 

[Crazy planning mom]

31 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

So I've pretty much been the lone gal preaching that NCL can't survive with 100% mask mandate here on the forum since cruising resumed last summer. At that time, I said NCL would only last 6 months with 100% vaccination requirement. I was wrong. NCL lasted 8 months before changing their 100% vaccination rule. I do see the rules changing to allow unvaccinated, but not by this summer. I'm going on record predicting early 2023 if niche markets haven't evolved by then. Of course, this is just my opinion and I mean no personal disrespect.

 

If this thread shows us anything it's that there are people who want 100% vaccinated cruising. There are also people who want 100% masking. There are people who want no masking, and I suspect there are people who also want to cruise with no vaccine requirement . I actually predict that the largest group is composed of people who don't care about the vaccinated status of others because they are vaccinated. In other words, those folks will choose a ship based on pricing and itinerary because if just doesn't matter to them what others have chosen.

 

 Ultimately, the market will decide which group will prevail, but in the meantime, niche markets offering these choices seems the next logical step. I'm doubling down.. Niche Markets for the win lol 🙂

You have also been warning that NCL may go bankrupt this year.  Does removal of the mask rule and the change to allow unvaccinated children under 5 change your opinion on this?

In other words, will these changes increase business enough for NCL to stay afloat?

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

You have also been warning that NCL may go bankrupt this year.  Does removal of the mask rule and the change to allow unvaccinated children under 5 change your opinion on this?

In other words, will these changes increase business enough for NCL to stay afloat?

 

I have never stated that NCL will go Bankrupt this year. Sadly, I do believe that NCL is in grave danger financially. I believe that the changes are likely to happen in 2023. Bankruptcy isn't their only option (think Chapter 11).  I have stated that I believe NCL is in the weakest position of the big three to survive and that hasn't waivered. 

 

Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, but I think NCL needs more than this to stage a viable comeback. Just today their press release stated they are burning 345 million a month in operating cost with 1.9 billion liquidity which doesn't give them enough to last 2022. They do have some lines of credit untapped and, of course, this doesn't take into account potential income which will be the only thing that can answer your question with any level of certainty.

 

With that, my personal position in the company is still short and I would avoid FCC like the plague if that tells you anything. 

 

 

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I have never stated that NCL will go Bankrupt this year. Sadly, I do believe that NCL is in grave danger financially. I believe that the changes are likely to happen in 2023. Bankruptcy isn't their only option (think Chapter 11).  I have stated that I believe NCL is in the weakest position of the big three to survive and that hasn't waivered. 

 

Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, but I think NCL needs more than this to stage a viable comeback. Just today their press release stated they are burning 345 million a month in operating cost with 1.9 billion liquidity which doesn't give them enough to last 2022. They do have some lines of credit untapped and, of course, this doesn't take into account potential income which will be the only thing that can answer your question with any level of certainty.

 

With that, my personal position in the company is still short and I would avoid FCC like the plague if that tells you anything. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you.

 

You are most welcome. Keep in mind there are a lot of really smart people who disagree with me. One thing that is certain is that there will be financial winners and losers when all the dust settles.

[LGW59]

7 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you.

Have not taken FCC for any cruise that I booked/re-booked the past two years, always always the cash refund.

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Ultimately, the market will decide which group will prevail, but in the meantime, niche markets offering these choices seems the next logical step. I'm doubling down.. Niche Markets for the win lol 🙂

 

Good luck picking the right one!  😬

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

Good luck picking the right one!  😬

Not going to lie, luck always plays a factor giving major market manipulation by the big dogs, but so far shorting cruise stock as provided me lots of disposable Income to spend on travel :). 

Edited February 8, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[At Sea At Peace]

22 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, but I think NCL needs more than this to stage a viable comeback. Just today their press release stated they are burning 345 million a month in operating cost with 1.9 billion liquidity which doesn't give them enough to last 2022. They do have some lines of credit untapped and, of course, this doesn't take into account potential income which will be the only thing that can answer your question with any level of certainty.

 

 

RCL is not really in a better position.  So much press about 'future bookings.  One highlight said 'they'd returned to pre-pandemic levels.'  Then I looked at the article which noted 'for the last week in January' bookings compared to same week pre-pandemic.

 

YIKES.

 

Liquidity.

 

For RCL's earnings release, ahead of NCL, if you still lose the same amount of money while sailing as you did while estopped, not good.

 

Who is the 'financier?'

 

Right now it's the customer deposits.

 

 

[Karaboudjan]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Not going to lie, luck always plays a factor giving major market manipulation by the big dogs, but so far shorting cruise stock as provided me lots of disposable Income to spend on travel :). 

Yes, there is that.  I was actually referring to picking the right niche to succeed.  

[BermudaBound2014]

I think all 3 are in trouble for sure and I am not buying the koolaid in terms of future bookings. But ncl is the smallest fish in the pond by a long shot. Maybe that plays a factor, maybe it doesn’t, but I have not been biased In my shorting… I’ve been Shorting them all pretty equally :). 

Edited February 8, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

Yes, there is that.  I was actually referring to picking the right niche to succeed.  

 Oh… well with that I think that is the beauty of niches. Cruise lines can spread options around without a total commitment. That way the market decides the winner, no gigantic losers since liability has been divided. 

[PaperSniper4]

1 hour ago, cruzingthebriny said:

https://www.ncl.com/ca/en/cruise-faq/are-face-coverings-required

Thanks

[BermudaBound2014]

NCl has updated their safe travels faq section. Lots of answers to the questions posed today. For the person wondering if there will be separate areas for unvaccinated children this is what the website says:

 

question- Will there be any areas on board unavailable to unvaccinated children traveling with vaccinated parents?

Answer- Unvaccinated children (age 4 and under) traveling with vaccinated parents will be welcomed at all venues not restricted by age requirements. Children will be prohibited from adults-only venues, such as Vibe Beach Club.

 

It also seems ncl isn’t the only line relaxing protocols. This article suggests RCl is lightening things up also (although no specifics are provided. Published today:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestreet.com/.amp/investing/royal-caribbean-might-be-ready-to-make-a-big-change

 

 

[cruisingguy007]

8 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

BINGO! I'm squarely in the 'stop the madness' campaign. Asymptomatic close contract quarantines identified by unnecessary testing will kill the entire industry. 

 

I think we are on the same page regarding the necessity of changing protocols, we just differ in terms of the timeline. I'll buy you a beer if vaccine mandates are removed prior to 2023 🙂

 

Better get that beer ready! Carnival is allowing unvaccinated folks that have recovered within three months of infection. It's happening, I'm sure the other lines won't be far behind. Science is winning, it's happening! You can skip testing too! 

 

 

Documentation of Recovery

Guests (either fully vaccinated or not) who have recovered from COVID-19 within three months of their sailing date, do not need the required pre-cruise COVID test before embarkation if they are at least 10 days past their COVID-19 infection, have no symptoms and present documentation of recovery from COVID-19 from their healthcare provider. Please visit our FAQs for complete information.

[BermudaBound2014]

@cruisingguy007 finally some sanity! Buying you a beer on this one will make me extra happy! 

[Honolulu Blue]

5 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

Better get that beer ready! Carnival is allowing unvaccinated folks that have recovered within three months of infection. It's happening, I'm sure the other lines won't be far behind. Science is winning, it's happening! You can skip testing too! 

 

Carnival always allowed unvaccinated people to board, subject to their exemption process (which I'm told is heavily biased toward kids who couldn't be vaccinated traveling with parents who have gotten the jabs).  The new rule allows the unvaxxed to skip testing but that's all - same as Disney, BTW.  I actually think the science goes farther than this - recovery within 90 days really should allow anyone to board regardless of vaccination status - but we'll have to see if anyone goes there.

[Hutcha]

46 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

- recovery within 90 days really should allow anyone to board regardless of vaccination status - but we'll have to see if anyone goes there.

 

Isn't this what Carnival and Disney are doing?

 

6 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

Guests (either fully vaccinated or not) who have recovered from COVID-19 within three months of their sailing date, do not need the required pre-cruise COVID test before embarkation if they are at least 10 days past their COVID-19 infection,

 

[PaperSniper4]

6 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Better get that beer ready! Carnival is allowing unvaccinated folks that have recovered within three months of infection. It's happening, I'm sure the other lines won't be far behind. Science is winning, it's happening! You can skip testing too! 

 

 

Documentation of Recovery

Guests (either fully vaccinated or not) who have recovered from COVID-19 within three months of their sailing date, do not need the required pre-cruise COVID test before embarkation if they are at least 10 days past their COVID-19 infection, have no symptoms and present documentation of recovery from COVID-19 from their healthcare provider. Please visit our FAQs for complete information.

Times they are a changin'..................hopefully things are getting better, and relaxing some of the protocols will not result in more infections. The new cases at least seem to be really tapering off. I'm not included in the group above, so we will have to get tested two days prior to sailing. It's a PITA, but I have to assume it's a valid requirement, and that all passengers will follow today's rules.

 

Doug

[Karaboudjan]

6 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Better get that beer ready! Carnival is allowing unvaccinated folks that have recovered within three months of infection. It's happening, I'm sure the other lines won't be far behind. Science is winning, it's happening! You can skip testing too! 

 

 

Documentation of Recovery

Guests (either fully vaccinated or not) who have recovered from COVID-19 within three months of their sailing date, do not need the required pre-cruise COVID test before embarkation if they are at least 10 days past their COVID-19 infection, have no symptoms and present documentation of recovery from COVID-19 from their healthcare provider. Please visit our FAQs for complete information.

 

That is handy now, but in 3 or 4 months the vast majority of the population will be outside of that 3 month range.

[ggTexasGal]

Because these threads can get confusing when other cruise lines' information gets posted...

 

To clarify, as of February 8, 2022, NCL is still requiring VACCINATED cruisers (with the exception of children under the age of 5), as of March 1)!!!

 And, recent recovery of Covid-19 is NOT an exception NCL makes.

Edited February 9, 2022 by ggTexasGal

[Honolulu Blue]

58 minutes ago, Hutcha said:

Isn't this what Carnival and Disney are doing?

 

No.  On Carnival, everyone that's unvaccinated must go through the exemption process regardless of whether they're recovered or not.  Exemptions are NOT guaranteed to be granted.  Disney ONLY allows unvaccinated children under the age of 5.  No exceptions are made for anyone else regardless of recovered status.