Oasis April 7 - So. Many. People.

[brillohead]

FWIW, this week is school-district (kids, not college) spring break week for the vast majority of the states of Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.  

You're probably surrounded by a bunch of pasty-white (or lobster-red sunburned by now) Northerners who still have snow falling back home right now.

Over the next week or two, passenger counts will probably drop by a thousand or more.

[bigque]

The service industry is really hurting right now be it in the cruise industry or on land. I have gone to restaurants and stores and see new people and replacements every time I go. Not enough servers, not enough cooks, not enough shelf stockers and so on. At one of favorite restaurants I was talking to the owner and he said they are starting to get better but the turnover rate for employees have been high. He said they would get people trained and then they quit so it has been a revolving door of trained employees and non trained which has really hurt their customer service. He said a lot of them get hired and get put right to work and learn as they go. I’m sure the cruise industry is pretty much doing the same thing. 

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, Biker19 said:

From their SEC filing last month (covering up till 12/31/2021):

 

As of December 31, 2021, we had approximately $3.2 billion in customer deposits. Approximately 32% of the customer deposit balance as of December 31, 2021 is related to FCCs compared to 35% of the customer deposit balance as of September 30, 2021, a positive trend indicating new demand.

 

We have provided flexibility to guests with bookings on sailings cancelled due to COVID-19 by allowing guests to receive future cruise credits (“FCC”) or elect to receive refunds in cash. As of December 31, 2021, our customer deposit balance includes approximately $600.0 million of unredeemed FCCs. As of December 31, 2021, the expiration date of the FCCs was extended until April 2022 for sailings departing on or before December 2022. Given the uncertainty of travel demand caused by COVID-19 and lack of comparable historical experience of FCC redemptions, we are unable to estimate the number of FCCs that may expire unused in future periods and get recognized as breakage.

 

I hear you, but ~

 

~  that is not the Press Release related to the record bookings and the March 31, 2022 what is the topic and reference at hand.  That is related to the 12/31/2021 balance and FCCs portion of customer deposits and expiration dates.  So, without the data from 12/31/2021 to 3/31/2022, to be fair, no one can state what the record bookings during that week referenced consisted of and what is left on March 31, 2022 and how much of those record bookings are covered under the CWC program.

 

~  RCCL knows exactly for sure, however they didn't issue any of such data.  They could have, they did not.  If it was really good, modifying the good news of the record bookings in any way, they would have (and rightly so).  Again, they did not.

 

~  So, we'll have to wait for the SEC filing for March 31, 2022 to get the related data about the composition of customer deposits, how much represented unredeemed FCCs, how many might be disclosed as under the CWC program end date, etc.  Absent that, interpretations on either side are merely subject to confirmation bias.

 

[Biker19]

10 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

So, without the data from 12/31/2021 to 3/31/2022, to be fair, no one can state what the record bookings during that week referenced consisted of and what is left on March 31, 2022 and how much of those record bookings are covered under the CWC program.

Even after they publish the 1st qt data, that is across all their brands, so not only will that data not have all the info, it is not specific for the RCI brand.

 

CC, where rampant speculation is the norm.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Biker19

[At Sea At Peace]

2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

FCC's have an apply by and sail by date of Dec 31, 2022.

 

CWC did end on March 31, 2022 but only covers sailings through Sept 30, 2022 so that might have had a small impact.

 

2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Personally I don't think the end CWC had much of an impact.  Sure it had some but not a significant impact.  CWC only covered sailings through Sept 30 and the vast majority of bookings are for sailings in 2023 and 2024

 

37 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Even after they publish the 1st qt data, that is across all their brands, so not only will that data not have all the info, it is not specific for the RCI brand.

 

CC, where rampant speculation is the norm.

 

Correct.  That is why one must have access to the data to make statements.

 

Also, I don't recall anyone specifically citing a requirement for data for only the RCI brand as I believe the pertinent quote was regarding RCL bookings across all their brands and, as you referenced, SEC filings from 12/31/2021 that were across all brands.

 

So, we'll what is disclosed 3/31/2022 compared to what they previously disclosed 12/31/2021.

 

 

[arsenic74]

Well, you can always escape the throng by going to see CATS a few times. Should be pretty empty in there. 😂

[Tree_skier]

3 hours ago, brillohead said:

FWIW, this week is school-district (kids, not college) spring break week for the vast majority of the states of Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.  

You're probably surrounded by a bunch of pasty-white (or lobster-red sunburned by now) Northerners who still have snow falling back home right now.

Over the next week or two, passenger counts will probably drop by a thousand or more.

My GK's in CA are on spring break this week too.

[Sunshine3601]

3 hours ago, brillohead said:

FWIW, this week is school-district (kids, not college) spring break week for the vast majority of the states of Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.  

You're probably surrounded by a bunch of pasty-white (or lobster-red sunburned by now) Northerners who still have snow falling back home right now.

Over the next week or two, passenger counts will probably drop by a thousand or more.

same here in PA, this coming week all schools k thru 12 in my area are closed

[Tree_skier]

Pretty much from the 2nd week of March thru the 3rd week of April you can assume big crowds.  Things will slow down a little until school starts letting out for summer and then we'll kick it all off again.  I generally avoid cruising during this period.

[AlohaLivin]

The cruiser in me says “aww crap”, while the hoping-to-retire-in-a-few-years investor side of me says “whoop whoop!” 😎

[brillohead]

15 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

Pretty much from the 2nd week of March thru the 3rd week of April you can assume big crowds.  Things will slow down a little until school starts letting out for summer and then we'll kick it all off again.  I generally avoid cruising during this period.

Exactly why my next batch of cruises starts on April 23rd!!!

[aharris0614]

CDavis5110 - any chance you would be willing to stop by guest services for me if they have no line?  We left something onboard (got off when you got on) and hoping it may still be in lost and found.  Submitted an online report but haven't heard back yet.  Feel free to DM me.  Thanks so much!

[taglovestocruise]

6 hours ago, Submariner said:

I bought a ton of Royal Caribbean stock at the peak of the pandemic when it was battered. I knew this time would come. i intend to cash in big time!

 

Zacks and few other analysts have moved RCL to a buy/strong buy.  I also loaded up in April 2020, sold half in April 2021 and will now hold the rest until it breaks $100.

[FamilyCruiserUK]

Covid will continue to cause staff issues and cannot be planned. As a business RCL will cruise at max capacity to increase revenue. Therefore, there will continue to be issues with queues and staff run ragged. There is no real solutions as you cant know how many staff you got from one day to the next. You also cannot cancel peoples cruises just before the sale date, due to ill staff.

 

Yes you could limit ships to 75% capacity but this will raise prices. 

 

Sadly just a sign of the times with covid. 

[Biker19]

And another record day........

 

Royal Caribbean International said it has set another booking record.

 

This past Black Friday was the cruise line’s single largest booking day in its 53-year history, according to a press release, which marked the third time the record was broken in 2022 and the peak of what is now the brand’s highest volume booking week.

 

The strong demand and performance demonstrated by the two latest records come on the heels of the first look at the world’s best family vacation, Icon of the Seas, and the record-breaking day reported when the highly anticipated ship opened for bookings 15 months ahead of its January 2024 debut.

 

“This has been a year for the books at Royal Caribbean International, from the full return of our 26 ships to the first look at Icon of the Seas, the best family vacation in the world,” said Michael Bayley, president and CEO, Royal Caribbean International. “Every milestone met is an accomplishment achieved, it’s a wonderful start to 2023 and we are excited for what lies ahead. We could not have reached this point without our loyal guests, valued travel advisors and partners, and the Royal Caribbean International team around the world.”

 

In 2022, the cruise line marked both the single largest booking day and the highest volume booking week in April, which was followed by another record-breaking single day of bookings with the opening of Icon in October.

 

The announcement of the newest records are celebrated along with a series of major, recent milestones for the brand, including the reveal of Icon as the first-of-its-kind combination of the best of every vacation and the arrival of Wonder of the Seas, the world’s newest wonder, into its year-round home of Port Canaveral, Florida. More about Icon and the cruise line’s new adventures across ships and private destinations will be revealed in the coming months.

 

Another Record Day for Royal Caribbean for Cruise Bookings - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

Biker, who sees these headlines like the fake sales RCI has running every week.