Carnival Stock Below $10

[icft]

Looking at the chart pattern my best guess is that CCL will bottom in the $3.50 to 4.50 area after making a new low from its all time high, then having a bit of a bounce then the final low.

 

But anything can happen. Who knows, the Saudis could make a tender offer to take it private at $20 a share. That would actually be a good deal for them. The price is so low due to the potential for bankruptcy. Without that hanging over CCL the shares would probably be trading above $20.

[BlerkOne]

9 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Bummer.  But it really doesn't surprise me.  Carnival is a financial mess right now and the stock is going to continue to be on a roller coaster with slow rises and lots of dips.

as are the rest of the cruise lines.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

"If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" !!

 

Tom

[crewsweeper]

9 hours ago, icft said:

Looking at the chart pattern my best guess is that CCL will bottom in the $3.50 to 4.50 area after making a new low from its all time high, then having a bit of a bounce then the final low.

 

But anything can happen. Who knows, the Saudis could make a tender offer to take it private at $20 a share. That would actually be a good deal for them. The price is so low due to the potential for bankruptcy. Without that hanging over CCL the shares would probably be trading above $20.

Not sure what chart pattern you're looking at but looks to me the stock broke some downtrend lines 2 days ago and is slightly above the trading band highs it was in over the summer and September bouncing back from the 6.11 low in October.  Unless there's some startling news probably going to stay somewhat range bound 10-ish to12-ish.

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

20 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL stock is at $11.30!!!

You jinxed it. 

[BoozinCroozin]

Once people realize what this is, it is a blip in the radar. All they are doing is converting existing $1B in debt to one with better terms. But it highlights the issue that CCL needs to start significantly paying back the debt at a rate of $3B+/year. 

 

John Heald and all of the other lip service people in Carnival can say what they want about a cutback here and a cutback there. All of it has a meaning. People said oh well, $2 popcorn is no big deal. I said it then that it won't stop there. They are cutting back on everything and increasing the price on everything. As a shareholder, I am for it as long as revenue and profits are there AND they are paying down that debt at $750M every quarter. I would be perfectly fine with $0 profit and $3B of debt gone each year for the next 7 years. I think they need to stop building and buying ships. 

[lostsoulcruiser]

39 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Once people realize what this is, it is a blip in the radar. All they are doing is converting existing $1B in debt to one with better terms. But it highlights the issue that CCL needs to start significantly paying back the debt at a rate of $3B+/year. 

It may become a little more than a blip.  The new debt allows for the conversion of this bond into Carnival stock at $13.39 per share, diluting present shareholder value (for what present shareholder value is).  On the flip side, the $13.39 represents approximately a 35 to 40 % increase over present value which is not bad for current shareholders.

All the cruise lines have mortgaged their future for survival.  The last numbers I heard was that Carnival capacity is at 82 % and rising.    

[At Sea At Peace]

56 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Once people realize what this is, it is a blip in the radar. All they are doing is converting existing $1B in debt to one with better terms. But it highlights the issue that CCL needs to start significantly paying back the debt at a rate of $3B+/year. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, lostsoulcruiser said:

It may become a little more than a blip.  The new debt allows for the conversion of this bond into Carnival stock at $13.39 per share, diluting present shareholder value (for what present shareholder value is).  On the flip side, the $13.39 represents approximately a 35 to 40 % increase over present value which is not bad for current shareholders.

 

 

The better terms were bought with the highest of security, massive dilution that is also not fixed.

 

boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2851334-general-stock-market-chatter/page/22/#comment-64313083

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, lostsoulcruiser said:

 

All the cruise lines have mortgaged their future for survival.  

 

Yep.  The bigger they are (CCL) the more debt taken.  Equity has little net book value at all out for many, many years.

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[mz-s]

3 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Once people realize what this is, it is a blip in the radar. All they are doing is converting existing $1B in debt to one with better terms. But it highlights the issue that CCL needs to start significantly paying back the debt at a rate of $3B+/year. 

 

John Heald and all of the other lip service people in Carnival can say what they want about a cutback here and a cutback there. All of it has a meaning. People said oh well, $2 popcorn is no big deal. I said it then that it won't stop there. They are cutting back on everything and increasing the price on everything. As a shareholder, I am for it as long as revenue and profits are there AND they are paying down that debt at $750M every quarter. I would be perfectly fine with $0 profit and $3B of debt gone each year for the next 7 years. I think they need to stop building and buying ships. 

 

They have stopped building and buying ships. They have not announced any new ship contracts since COVID. The newbuilds they’ve had since COVID have all been contracts signed years ago.

[Lee Cruiser]

4 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

as are the rest of the cruise lines.

Yes, but it certainly could be argued that they are not nearly as bad as Carnival.  Looking at stocks this year, Carnival is down about 58% from the January peak, RCI about 29% and NCL 23%.  Carnival stock has been diluted greatly in the last couple of years and it appears they are continuing that trend.  Again, it's going to be a rough ride if you own Carnival stock.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

4 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

...Again, it's going to be a rough ride if you own Carnival stock.

 

Just like cruising - sometimes it gets a bit rough 🙂

 

Tom

[icft]

4 hours ago, crewsweeper said:

Not sure what chart pattern you're looking at but looks to me the stock broke some downtrend lines 2 days ago and is slightly above the trading band highs it was in over the summer and September bouncing back from the 6.11 low in October.  Unless there's some startling news probably going to stay somewhat range bound 10-ish to12-ish.

You could well be right.

 

I don't really use Elliott Wave theory, but once one knows they are in an impulsive move I do find it somewhat predictive of the overall shape of things to come. Having warned folks not to put much reliance on Elliott Wave, I'm pretty sure we are in an impulsive move and I think there is a significant probability the overall shape of the impulsive move down is, and will be, this:

 

[crewsweeper]

Just now, icft said:

You could well be right.

 

I don't really use Elliott Wave theory, but once one knows they are in an impulsive move I do find it somewhat predictive of the overall shape of things to come. Having warned folks not to put much reliance on Elliott Wave, I'm pretty sure we are in an impulsive move and I think there is a significant probability the overall shape of the impulsive move down is, and will be, this:

 

Elliot Wave keeps revising itself.   More after the fact than predictive.   But then so are most tech models .

[icft]

12 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

Elliot Wave keeps revising itself.   More after the fact than predictive.   But then so are most tech models .

I agree. I generally say it is descriptive rather than predictive. I find it of no use in predicting a trend change but once an impulsive move is well established I find it somewhat useful for anticipating the final shape of the impulse. But it is all probabilities, not certainties. It is much more important to recognize when what you anticipated isn't happening and get out and to recognize when what you anticipated is happening and let it ride.

[crewsweeper]

As an old Certified Market Technician in a past life, I always found short term technicals are reasonably good for placing a trade on any given day, and longer term moving averages and trend lines good for painting a current picture.  But no model good for catching peaks and troughs.

Edited November 16, 2022 by crewsweeper

[Decali]

M'kaa Mr. Tom. Super objective and helpful. Is this technical, fundamental, or just your "I Like Carnival best". Any thoughts on CCL comparative to other cruise lines?

[PUNKT2]

12 hours ago, Decali said:

M'kaa Mr. Tom. Super objective and helpful. Is this technical, fundamental, or just your "I Like Carnival best". Any thoughts on CCL comparative to other cruise lines?

RCCL says they will return to FY 2019 financial performance in FY 2025. NCL says they believe they will make all their future debt obligations without raising new capital. I haven't seen anything similar from CCL, which perhaps helps explain why RCCL and NCLH are back to about where they were six months ago (RCCL slightly down, NCLH slightly up) while CCL is off 40%.

 

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by PUNKT2
typo

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

16 minutes ago, PUNKT2 said:

RCCL says they will return to FY 2019 financial performance in FY 2025. NCL says they believe they will make all their future debt obligations without raising new capital. I haven't seen anything similar from CCL, which perhaps helps explain why RCCL and NCLH are back to about where they were six months ago (RCCL slightly down, NCLH slightly up) while CCL is off 40%.

 

 

 

That will either give more upside to CCL, or....  !

 

Tom

[zentraveler]

On 10/18/2022 at 1:25 PM, ray98 said:

 

Unfortunately Carnival has done more damage to their brand since the restart than they can fix in a decade.  The recent poor behavior on ships has been shared far and wide with ease on social media.  I have many friends and co-workers who are not even cruisers mention it to me when the topic comes up that I am leaving for cruise vacation.  I also have a few friends who routinely cruise who are avoiding Carnival at this point.  It has really taken up a life of its own.

Went on the Carnival Miracle over Memorial Day w/e - my first - and I swore it would be my last. Gaudy ship decor, mediocre food, an herbal tea bag cost extra (lipton decaf was included), ordered one dish and it came with 80% of the stated ingredients missing (really), loud party atmosphere, photo equipment and set ups everywhere on "dress" night ... and on an on. The only saving graces were the musicians, who were quite good, and that I had booked a suite so the cabin was a nice refuge from the noise and decor (which was truly hidious). 

 

It was a 5 day cruise which I have been told has more of a party atmosphere.

[zentraveler]

On 10/19/2022 at 5:01 PM, icft said:

Just my opinion... I think the announcement of the $500 fine is a small net negative for Carnival.

 

Those who have sailed carnival will know Carnival does not enforce many of its rules. So this announcement will mean little to them, though it may raise some hope and keep some on the verge of leaving waiting to see if this rule is enforced. I doubt it will be enforced with the result being the announcement just delayed customer loss.

 

For some who have not sailed Carnival this will be the first they have heard that there is a problem. The announcement will be a negative with those folks as they are now aware of a problem they did not previously know about. Most of those who have not sailed Carnival will never see the announcement.

 

Unless Carnival publicizes cases where the fine, or worse, was imposed they will have only kept a few current customers staying a bit longer and warned off some potential new customers. If they actually intend to enforce the penalty they would have been better off just changing the cruise contract and enforcing the threats.

 

 

Seriously....  they have to have a fine because there is so much bad behavior? I had already decided I was one and done with Carnival and this makes that even more of a good decision!

[canes20]

1 hour ago, zentraveler said:

Seriously....  they have to have a fine because there is so much bad behavior? I had already decided I was one and done with Carnival and this makes that even more of a good decision!

And you are on the Carnival board because?????????????

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

It is back above 10 today

[zentraveler]

2 hours ago, canes20 said:

And you are on the Carnival board because?????????????

 

I was on the board in advance of my trip and got interested in this discussion. I own the stock and am interested in securities in general. It is the only thread I am following on Carnival. 

 

Sorry if this offended anyone; it was a clumsy way of responding to the idea that it would be easy to change the reputation that Carnival has as a "fun" cruise and not a higher end one. But I agree that it would definitely help their bottom line. I chose that Carnival cruise to see if it was a good alternative to more expensive ones.

[tidecat]

Wikipedia shows Costa Magica has been sold to Seajets.  I have yet to confirm this, but if this is happening, or has happened, we should get confirmation soon. Carnival Corp should be releasing earnings later this month.

 

There are 10 ships remaining in the Costa fleet, with Firenze scheduled to transfer to Carnival in January 2024 for a "Spring 2024" return to service in Long Beach.

[jsglow]

On 12/1/2022 at 1:17 PM, zentraveler said:

 

I was on the board in advance of my trip and got interested in this discussion. I own the stock and am interested in securities in general. It is the only thread I am following on Carnival. 

 

Sorry if this offended anyone; it was a clumsy way of responding to the idea that it would be easy to change the reputation that Carnival has as a "fun" cruise and not a higher end one. But I agree that it would definitely help their bottom line. I chose that Carnival cruise to see if it was a good alternative to more expensive ones.

And it isn't for you.  Best wishes finding your niche.  Seriously.