Norwegian increasing prices closer to sail date

[rabadipscavern]

Does this seem like the logical thing for NCL to do? Been tracking an Escape July 2022 cruise and the closer to departure the prices have been increasing consistently week by week. I would think it to be opposite, drops fares -> sell more cabins -> make more profit? Just a thought I wanted to put out there, I know theres way more factors that probably play into it. 

[KeithJenner]

It will depend on how a specific sailing is selling. Cruises I’ve been watching have been reducing fares significantly as they get closer to sailing. If they are going up then it would suggest that specific sailing is selling ok.

[BklynBorn47]

33 minutes ago, KeithJenner said:

It will depend on how a specific sailing is selling. Cruises I’ve been watching have been reducing fares significantly as they get closer to sailing. If they are going up then it would suggest that specific sailing is selling ok.

Can't comment specifically on NCL but the B2B2B Celebrity cruises we booked in Feb for Feb 2023 are going up to.  I called them because of a "sale" advertised but our particular cabin category is higher now.  

[majmaj4]

I purchase 3 cruises for July in early May, and the prices of all 3 have gone up.

[graphicguy]

Not sure how true this is, but one of the NCL pre-cruise concierges said July sailings are capped at 70% capacity.  I’m sure that restricts availability, and could mean higher prices.

 

But, pricing now, compared to pricing before the COVID break, is still less than before.

 

I know my July sailing is nearly sold out.

[BirdTravels]

3 hours ago, rabadipscavern said:

Does this seem like the logical thing for NCL to do? Been tracking an Escape July 2022 cruise and the closer to departure the prices have been increasing consistently week by week. I would think it to be opposite, drops fares -> sell more cabins -> make more profit? Just a thought I wanted to put out there, I know theres way more factors that probably play into it. 

It's supply and demand. As the ship sells out, there is less supply, and they can ask for more for the rooms that are left. While the cruise lines, in general, make more money from onboard spending than on the cruise fare, there is probably some logic that says that someone willing to pay more for a cruise will spend more on board than someone looking for a discount getaway. 

[MagnoliaBlossom]

It has always been my observation, that in MOST cases the lowest prices are when the new sailings are first announced, usually 18 months or so out.  We always book very early and my PCC watches for any big drops and let’s us know.  We, of course, watch them as well but she sometimes knows about drops before they become common knowledge.    Certainly, the market has been crazy post covid, just as it was after 9/11,  and you have to remember DelRios statement when he ascended the throne, about not discounting prices to fill ships.  But as BirdTravels said, supply and demand will always be in play.

[TrumpyNor]

1 hour ago, BirdTravels said:

It's supply and demand. As the ship sells out, there is less supply, and they can ask for more for the rooms that are left. While the cruise lines, in general, make more money from onboard spending than on the cruise fare, there is probably some logic that says that someone willing to pay more for a cruise will spend more on board than someone looking for a discount getaway. 

This.

I have a cruise on the Escape booked for August 2022. Originally a regular inside cabin, but about a month ago I purchased a regular upgrade to a club balcony cabin and paid only $300 in total for the upgrade for 2 persons (the difference between what I had paid originally and the current online price). If I wanted to upgrade to a regular balcony cabin instead (same day), I would have to pay $3000!!! (yes, three THOUSAND) more than my original paid cabin. Maybe not logic, but as a result of supply and demand there were many club balcony cabins left and not so many regular balcony cabins....

Edited June 18, 2022 by TrumpyNor

[sadiwest]

1 hour ago, BirdTravels said:

It's supply and demand. As the ship sells out, there is less supply, and they can ask for more for the rooms that are left. While the cruise lines, in general, make more money from onboard spending than on the cruise fare, there is probably some logic that says that someone willing to pay more for a cruise will spend more on board than someone looking for a discount getaway. 

This. For any travel related business,  there are departments dedicated to "yield management " and determining how many of each cabin type need to sell at what cost. 

 

The more bookings, the fewer the "cheaper" options are available.  

[phillygwm]

5 hours ago, rabadipscavern said:

Been tracking an Escape July 2022 cruise and the closer to departure the prices have been increasing consistently week by week. I would think it to be opposite, drops fares -> sell more cabins -> make more profit? 

There are some pretty complex algorithms but it boils down to whether they've sold more or fewer cabins than anticipated at a given point in time.  If they're behind plan, rates drop.  If they're ahead, they go up.  Of course, an empty cabin loses all value once the ship leaves port which is why, in many cases, you can often find great "last minute" fares.  The ship will burn just as much fuel, have just as many crew, etc. if that room is empty or occupied so why not get the incremental revenue?  Plus, of course, people tend to buy things on board and those onboard purchases tend to have better margins than the fare itself.

 

Like the old shaving adage:  Give away the razor, sell the blades 🙂

 

[joelheather]

THEN HOW WOULD THEY FILL SHIPS BY WAITING TO CLOSE TO SALING FOR THE BEST DEAL.

THINK…..

[jskinsd]

On 6/18/2022 at 1:37 AM, rabadipscavern said:

Does this seem like the logical thing for NCL to do? Been tracking an Escape July 2022 cruise and the closer to departure the prices have been increasing consistently week by week. I would think it to be opposite, drops fares -> sell more cabins -> make more profit? Just a thought I wanted to put out there, I know theres way more factors that probably play into it. 

So what you gonna do?  Deal or no deal.✌️

[Mary229]

Fuel costs!  Inflation is no fun

Edited June 19, 2022 by Mary229

[JGmf]

The notion that cruise pricing may be rising, even closer to sailing dates, seems logical in the upside-down times we are living in. 

 

Fuel costs and other inflation, are probably a big reason, but also demand has to be up, driven by cruisers with home ports close by.  Flying anywhere is a such a (very pricey) cattle-call hassle. 

[LGW59]

59 minutes ago, joelheather said:

THEN HOW WOULD THEY FILL SHIPS BY WAITING TO CLOSE TO SALING FOR THE BEST DEAL.

THINK…..

Why are you YELLING?!

[ziggyuk]

All the cruises I am following went up significantly today, they were on a spread of dates and locations until March 2023.

[TashaB]

Lots of discounting on Alaska for July through September of this year, especially on Sun and Spirit.  From 5 to 11 day itineraries.

[mking8288]

Geo-specific and timing, apparently, do affect pricing & it's larger trending downward for Canada/New England cruises from NYC this Fall, been sliding lower since final payment hit last month - exception being higher for Boston.  Maybe it's the competitions ... got me scratching heads.   Breakaway commanding higher prices for balconies, yet prices finally moving lower ... oddly enough, there are no SPA balconies and club cabins available / showing for new bookings, nor for upgrade bidding - must be popular & fully sold out, I think not.  

 

As for Alaska sailings this year, I can see prices falling hard & going rock bottom ... not easy to book & secure flights to SEA and/or YVR, regardless of prices, and, then, you have to factor in airline's flight cancellations pattern lately and the odds of scrambling with last minute changes.  

[ChiefMateJRK]

On 6/18/2022 at 2:37 AM, rabadipscavern said:

Does this seem like the logical thing for NCL to do? Been tracking an Escape July 2022 cruise and the closer to departure the prices have been increasing consistently week by week. I would think it to be opposite, drops fares -> sell more cabins -> make more profit?

Are you basing this entirely on the tracking of a single itinerary?

[julig22]

5 hours ago, TashaB said:

Lots of discounting on Alaska for July through September of this year, especially on Sun and Spirit.  From 5 to 11 day itineraries.

Maybe at the beginning of the season.

Booked on the Spirit in September several months ago, balconies in gty status at that time, price hasn't really budged and 3x promo gone.  Might drop some when the airfare promo drops off.

[rscales2]

Sometimes I think Companies are taking advantage of the talking about inflation.

[Travelling2Some]

2 hours ago, rscales2 said:

Sometimes I think Companies are taking advantage of the talking about inflation.

I think I got them before they could get me.  The current inflation was very predictable so about a year ago I started booking cruises that we are interested in as far out as possible to nail down the price, which I am continuing to do.  I can always cancel when its time for final payment and get price adjustments up until then so there is no downside.  I've got some good bargains lined up so I'm very happy with this strategy so far.

[ChiefMateJRK]

16 hours ago, Travelling2Some said:

I think I got them before they could get me.  The current inflation was very predictable so about a year ago I started booking cruises that we are interested in as far out as possible to nail down the price, which I am continuing to do.  I can always cancel when its time for final payment and get price adjustments up until then so there is no downside.  I've got some good bargains lined up so I'm very happy with this strategy so far.

This.  I wish more on here would take the time to understand this type of strategy.  That said, despite the outliers that are reported, most of the cruises I've booked into the future have pretty boring price dynamics.  The fireworks start when a booking past final payment suddenly has tanking prices.  I've gotten balcony upgrades for my last two cruises for couch change.  My mantra is "book an inside and then upgrade when the prices drop!"  I recently deviated on a 2022 fall cruise (i.e. I booked the balconies to begin with) and missed an opportunity to save some meaningful $$$.  Of course, we got the rooms we wanted and it will be the last thing on my mind when I get on that ship. 😎

Edited June 20, 2022 by ChiefMateJRK

[CrazyTrain2]

18 hours ago, rscales2 said:

Sometimes I think Companies are taking advantage of the talking about inflation.

You increase prices when customers will let you - even if not needed, because you may not have a sympathetic customer when you need to raise prices.  If you are FORCED to raise prices, you are behind the curve and putting your business in jeopardy.

[graphicguy]

My rule of thumb…..when you see a cruise line, a ship, an itinerary and a fare you like…book it then.