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Bin man

By Bin man,
in P&O Cruises ( UK )

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wowzz

wowzz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, sandancer said:

July 2023? Are you saying that the obc won’t apply after that. 

The shareholded obc benefit has to approved every year, around July, so theoretically it can be withdrawn.

Personally I think it unlikely that it will be stopped, given the resentment such action would cause. 

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Son of Anarchy

Son of Anarchy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, sandancer said:

July 2023? Are you saying that the obc won’t apply after that. 

Every year Carnival state how much the shareholder OBC is for each of their cruise companies.

 

We first bought shares about 12 years ago.  Each year since the shareholder OBC has been renewed and is currently applicable on cruises through 31 July 2023

 

2021 US Annual Report (carnivalcorporation.com)

 

I can't remember what time of year they announce the next "extension" of shareholder OBC.  They can always choose not to renew/extend it, but have always done so since we got our shares.

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majortom10

majortom10

Posted
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I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company.

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Cruise_Rookie_2010

Cruise_Rookie_2010

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, davecttr said:

If Carnival go belly up what happens to the money I forked out on my April cruise moved twice because of the disease. I paid by credit card so it it actually the banks money which is at risk.

If you paid by credit card, in the event of bankruptcy, you're protected. You simply claim against the credit card company. There's not a great chance of that event happening, the share price has absolutely no effect on the operation of the company, it's cash (or access to further borrowing) which determines whether the business continues to operate. All major cruise companies shares are trading at many times less than their historic highs at the minute (Norwegian down approx 80% vs all time high, Royal Caribbean down 70%), Carnival is simply the worst of the bunch right now. Being the biggest player, should sentiment change on the future of cruising, it's also possible it'll bounce right back.

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Cruise_Rookie_2010

Cruise_Rookie_2010

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, majortom10 said:

I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company.

Can't say I completely disagree with the new CEO, current pricing of some cruises makes you wonder how on earth they are making anything on them. We've enjoyed 2 cruises this year and paid approx £50 per night (pp). Show me any similar holiday that could match that kind of value, no doubt it's to ensure customers keep sailing during the uncertain period we've just experienced, but if this continues & people start to think any increase is unjustified the whole industry is in trouble. Before C19 we would budget between £80-120 pppn (inside/balcony) and felt we got incredible value for money. With all the new ships being launched it's going to be a buyers market for the next year or so, unless cruise lines cut capacity by phasing out older/smaller ships earlier than planned. Until then I'm booking as many bargain cruises as I can without being sacked.

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majortom10

majortom10

Posted
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54 minutes ago, Cruise_Rookie_2010 said:

Can't say I completely disagree with the new CEO, current pricing of some cruises makes you wonder how on earth they are making anything on them. We've enjoyed 2 cruises this year and paid approx £50 per night (pp). Show me any similar holiday that could match that kind of value, no doubt it's to ensure customers keep sailing during the uncertain period we've just experienced, but if this continues & people start to think any increase is unjustified the whole industry is in trouble. Before C19 we would budget between £80-120 pppn (inside/balcony) and felt we got incredible value for money. With all the new ships being launched it's going to be a buyers market for the next year or so, unless cruise lines cut capacity by phasing out older/smaller ships earlier than planned. Until then I'm booking as many bargain cruises as I can without being sacked.

They are only selling at that price currently due to people not cruising because of cost of living crisis/fuel prices or because of fear of COVID. The cost of living crisis isn't going to change anytime soon so in raising prices will just mean less bookings and lowering prices to fill ships. Unfortunately it is a vicious circle that isn't going to change and improve Carnival's finances or share price.

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molecrochip

molecrochip

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, majortom10 said:

I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company.

I'm not convinced that the share price is a major concern here. The entire cruise market has followed a similar trend therefore its not just Carnival who have tanked. Carnival are the biggest therefore their movement has been the biggest but that's to be expected. 

 

The analysts expected better from the last earnings call as they had been led to expect better.  There was an analyst on CNBC the following day who was clear that Carnival said one thing in their statement then back-tracked on that in their earnings call. This details a company with mixed opinions as to where it is headed. The earnings calls have been an Arnold & David double act for years to the degree that they could finish each other's sentences. This time Josh and David were not on the same page.

 

Yes, some elements are being sold to cheaply but thats strategy. If you're an expanding value driven brand - CCL, P&O, Princess to name a few, as you add significant capacity, you reduce cost to fill the capacity whilst still making your previous levels of profit. Then once you have all your customers covered to existing customers, you incrementally increase the price of the product. What you have is a two year gap in that cycle which has pushed back capacity additions and thus pushed back price rises.

 

If you're a Cunard, HAL, Seaborn then you add capacity at a much slower scale and therefore don't alter your pricing structure. These brands are typically looking for existing cruise sector customers who want to 'step-up'.

 

What is interesting is P&O have yet to have the new CEOs detailed strategic review which, for example, Princess has - remember those very successful Princess Plus fares? Its not a surprise that P&O weren't first as Josh had been closer to P&O and Cunard before leaving for the US. I wonder if 2023 could be the time for Paul Ludlow to say '2 new ships, covid restart complete, job done' and move elsewhere within the Company. His track record says that he is career ambitious.

 

Are we at the bottom? I think that may wait for January depending largely on oil prices. I think we -could hit £4 before we see the turn. My end of 2023 target is £10ps.

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pmd98052

pmd98052

Posted
Posted
On 10/11/2022 at 6:20 PM, Cruise_Rookie_2010 said:

Don't look would be my advice, I paid £12.30 each and thought they were cheap at the time.

The shareholder benefit is helping soften the blow ( a little).

 

heh - I have 100 shares bought years ago at $37. 🙂 

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yorkshirephil

yorkshirephil

Posted
Posted

Interesting comment about improved booking volumes since the relaxation of protocols.

CARNIVAL EXPECTING Q4 LOSS, SHARES SINK

(Sharecast News) - Carnival shares sank on Friday after the cruise operator said it expects to make a loss in the fourth quarter.
The company said it expects a net loss and breakeven to slightly negative adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter ending November 30.

In its results for the third quarter, Carnival said net losses narrowed to $770m from $2.8bn in the same period a year earlier, as onboard and other revenues rose to $4.3bn from $546m.

Chief executive officer Josh Weinstein said: "Since announcing the relaxation of our protocols last month, we have seen a meaningful improvement in booking volumes and are now running considerably ahead of strong 2019 levels.

"We expect to further capitalise on this momentum with renewed efforts to generate demand. We are focused on delivering significant revenue growth over the long-term, while taking advantage of near-term tactics to quickly capture price and bookings in the interim."

Weinstein said Carnival continued its positive trajectory in Q3, achieving more than $300m of adjusted EBITDA and reaching nearly 90% occupancy on its August sailings.

"We are continuing to close the gap to 2019 as we progress through the year, building occupancy on higher capacity and lower unit costs," he said.

London-listed Carnival shares were down 19% at 1605 BST at 595.80p.
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