Carnival Stock

[mcrcruiser]

Today . November 6 ,2022 Carnival stock is trading  in a range of $9.18 to $9.79  . At present we see it at $9.40   per share 

 

 Where do you see  this stock 6 months from Now ? will the cruise industry still be booking at the high rate it is currently booking  or will the travel bug cool off ?  Yes we know that all has to do with the economy  but ,let's say it is status quo where do you see the stock selling in 6 months ? 

 

[mcrcruiser]

oops down to the $9.18/share  level at 11:10 pacific time

[REOVA]

6 months? Probably fluctuate $7-$11 (or $0). But depends on not only economy but virus breakout again (flu, Covid, etc which people seem less concerned about now), war, employment, supplies, year end(calendar and fiscal) market selloffs, debt calls, etc. 

 

Six months is a short term strategy so obviously depends on why you want to buy. For those that purchased 2 years ago or longer, this is a bargain and helps DCA. But for longer term, there are alot of variables: Do you plan to cruise more often and how long each cruise? Many have received OBC (or past distributions) that more than covered the stock purchase. Will they bring back distributions, will they cancel stock OBC program, will CCL sell off the brand you sail the most....lots of questions depending on why you want to buy. If you are trying to time the market for just a specific stock purchase, many "experts" say its not a good stock because of debt. I didn't buy to include in my portfolio (only bought 100 shares) because my portfolio has different goals, questions and planning.  So the questions I had was can I continue cruising and get the benefits that come with it. If you buy now, no matter where the price is, after 4 or 10 cruises (depending on length) your cost is recovered and you have 100 shares (or whatever numbers you plug in). So if its before you recapture any of the benefits (that hopefully will continue as you cruise), the worst case is CCL filing BK and you've lost money. As you know, longer term is where the benefit will come for this stock

[Djb4CC]

Here is my opinion for what it is worth to anyone.  In both the short and medium term, CCL and the other cruise line stocks are a huge gamble as an investment.  The amount of debt they are carrying, future recessionary risks, lack of dividends, and the whole health environment make these a high risk investments, but on the flip side, higher risks can lead to higher rewards.

 

If you are simply purchasing for the purpose of OBC, I think it is a reasonable investment of less then $1000 to get some future tax-free stream of money (depending on how often and for what duration of cruise you do).

 

Do I think any of the three big corp’s shares are going to return to pre-March 2020 levels, not likely in my investment horizon, but I also do not think any of them will be going belly up… 

[riffatsea]

We bought Carnival stock in order to get t h e OBC

It is not in our portfolio because we think it is a great investment for price improvement!!

Edited December 7, 2022 by riffatsea

[ontheweb]

9 hours ago, riffatsea said:

We bought Carnival stock in order to get t h e OBC

It is not in our portfolio because we think it is a great investment for price improvement!!

Once upon a time it was. The price of the stock went up and the dividend doubled. And then there was Covid. 😢

[BermudaBound2014]

Ironically, this is today's headline from Fools (not that anyone should listen to headlines):

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c61be0ea-cf05-3991-a9d5-0cbfbe7ff612/carnival-stock-is-down-54-.html

 

 

At this moment in time, it's trading at $9.12.  I expect it will trade lower when the 4th quarterly and yearly is released. October and November were brutal in terms of capacity.

 

HAL offered $25 deposits and Princess offered $1 deposits during black Friday. Likely the reason for yesterday's headline that CCL had record bookings during cyber week ;-). I suspect low deposits were a necessary move in order to report high bookings in 2023. Now, let's see how many with low deposits actually sail.

 

Cruise lines are all still swimming upstream. The debt is monsterous.

 

 

[REOVA]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Ironically, this is today's headline from Fools (not that anyone should listen to 

 

 

They've been bearish on Cruise lines for 2 years (rightfully) but those that potentially make the most money (and much more risk) are "greedy when others are fearful". W. Buffett

[JeffElizabeth]

I like buying a few hundred shares for the OBC but only use risk capital.  I think it is a good long term investment.  

[ontheweb]

53 minutes ago, JeffElizabeth said:

I like buying a few hundred shares for the OBC but only use risk capital.  I think it is a good long term investment.  

A "FEW" hundred shares for OBC?---there is no difference for OBC for 100 shares or more than 100 shares.

[mcrcruiser]

At the rate of  the stock decline & where we are headed into 2023 with a good  chance of recession   we can wait  for a  better price 😇

[JeffElizabeth]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

At the rate of  the stock decline & where we are headed into 2023 with a good  chance of recession   we can wait  for a  better price 😇

Really? Do we have to worry about delisting? Or bankruptcy? Then they could comeback with a new IPO,  or go private with new investors. Then no more OBC. 

[mcrcruiser]

4 minutes ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Really? Do we have to worry about delisting? Or bankruptcy? Then they could comeback with a new IPO,  or go private with new investors. Then no more OBC. 

They just can ;t   reneg on that huge debt , If they did not meet their interest payments the creditors  could take over & start selling the assets  to  get their investents back   .There would then be no CCL corp  but  different  identities   or cruise lines like  MSC  ,Virgin  ie  or any  well financed cruse line to expand their presence