RCCL stock price verses cut backs

[Jim_Iain]

3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

What's troubling to me is that even with 95% load factor last quarter they only achieved $15MM in operating earnings.  Subtracting $400MM in interest expense and a $130MM one time charge related to the Helms-Burton Cuba lawsuit brought the net loss to $500MM.  Long term debt now up to $23B vs $9B pre-covid and stockholders equity down 50% for the year to under $3B.  You can't cost cut your way to prosperity but they need to figure how to get the balance sheet under control.

While none of us have the actual numbers.   I would believe from what I see posted on CC that Lots of rooms (equating to passenger load) were and are being filled with non-revenue BCC promotional cruises as well as TA FAM trips.  

 

Also if I recall from the press release on-board revenue per passenger increased.   Not sure if that's funny money (raise price and give a OBC)  or a real spend

Edited February 9, 2023 by Jim_Iain

[Jim_Iain]

59 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

I’ve been dabbling in the market for over thirty five years and have done better than I ever imagined. I pay little attention to the analysts, do my due diligence and react according. The first two questions I ask my self is do I believe in the product and the management team that runs it. In the case of the cruise industry the answer to both is no. Even when RCL was around $20, I never even considered buying. 

Just been sitting back and watching during the pandemic and after. The extra  money I have coming in has been going in cds, about $5500 a month, and with the interest rates over 4%, it’s starting to really add up. The stock market is a major contributor to this. i have to take a minimum withdrawal from my 401k each year. For 2022, the take home from that, after federal taxes taken, is more than the gross of my social security, my wife’s social security, my pension, and interest from my cash savings. I don’t think the shareholder obc from RCL would be anywhere near that.

 

Understand as we are similar.    All of our SS and my RMD go into our cruise fun.    Can't wait for Iain to start drawing RMD.  

 

I guess I look at my RCL investment different -   I'm not into it as an investment but purely for the OBC.   Does the $100 - 250 credit make or break a deal just another component.

 

I bought RCL in 2001 when I first started cruising at $9.11/share and only purchased the minimum amount of 100 shares.

 

Your post got me calculating -

 

I invested $911  and have received $15,600 in OBC's over 22 years

ROI 1,612%

Annualized ROI  13.86%

[NutsAboutGolf]

I'll throw gas into the dumpster fire...

 

In regards to the stock price, what do the fire sale (unfilled ships deeply discounting rates) during the last few weeks before the sailing?

[BermudaBound2014]

Cruise line stock has been behaving irrationally since the restart. I’m putting my money on big player pump and dump for the latest rally. Time will tell of course.

Edited February 9, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Jim_Iain]

2 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

I'll throw gas into the dumpster fire...

 

In regards to the stock price, what do the fire sale (unfilled ships deeply discounting rates) during the last few weeks before the sailing?

 

They do fill cabins that are freed up by upgrade bids with these fire sales -   I guess potential incremental revenue from spending aboard.    Some revenue vs no revenue.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

While none of us have the actual numbers.   I would believe from what I see posted on CC that Lots of rooms (equating to passenger load) were and are being filled with non-revenue BCC promotional cruises as well as TA FAM trips.  

 

Also if I recall from the press release on-board revenue per passenger increased.   Not sure if that's funny money (raise price and give a OBC)  or a real spend

I would bet a lot that is true!

 

 

[NutsAboutGolf]

3 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

While none of us have the actual numbers.   I would believe from what I see posted on CC that Lots of rooms (equating to passenger load) were and are being filled with non-revenue BCC promotional cruises as well as TA FAM trips.  

 

Also if I recall from the press release on-board revenue per passenger increased.   Not sure if that's funny money (raise price and give a OBC)  or a real spend

They’ve increased a bit over the past year, internet & Wi-Fi including the upgrades cost and specialty dining.

 

Not sure how the following played into the quarter but they had the cyber Monday sale for already booked cruises.  Several things were 33% off, from a Iceland $743 tour to the Wi-Fi upgrade voucher.  Speaking of the Wi-Fi voucher, they had a infamous glitch on most sailings you paid $9.99 per sailing and not per night which was later corrected.  Guessing X unexpectedly received a boatload (sorry, had to) of orders for the upgrade voucher.  Despite it being deeply discounted and only $10 a pop, that’s still pure revenue

[Baron Barracuda]

Difficult to comment on individual line items in their p&l without knowing how they count the beans.  For instance if you book AI do they report the entire booking as cruise fare or do they carve out value of bev pkg and wifi as onboard revenue?  Are prepaid grats a revenue or contra-expense (do grats collected and paid to crew even show in the p&l)?  Is cost of alcohol netted against bar income or buried in the "food" line with non-alcoholic beverages.  Same with cost of specialty restaurants, food expense or contra-revenue?  CFO has wide discretion in categorization.

[grandgeezer]

On 2/9/2023 at 4:13 PM, Jim_Iain said:

 

Understand as we are similar.    All of our SS and my RMD go into our cruise fun.    Can't wait for Iain to start drawing RMD.  

 

I guess I look at my RCL investment different -   I'm not into it as an investment but purely for the OBC.   Does the $100 - 250 credit make or break a deal just another component.

 

I bought RCL in 2001 when I first started cruising at $9.11/share and only purchased the minimum amount of 100 shares.

 

Your post got me calculating -

 

I invested $911  and have received $15,600 in OBC's over 22 years

ROI 1,612%

Annualized ROI  13.86%

Don’t you figure in the cruise prices when you figure your return? If you don’t cruise, you get 0 obc. Along the same lines, in the early 1990s I bought $4,000 in stock in a Midwest regional airline. Two and a half weeks later United bought them and I netted a 47% gain on my purchase. I reinvested the money but I never kept track on the returns after that.

[DingoMom]

You are correct that if you don’t cruise, you will get no OBC. But, like Jim, I am going to cruise anyway, so it is fine with me if my ‘dividends’ are paid in OBC. If I cruise 6 times a year, I am getting $600 a year. I don’t cruise to get the OBC, but it is still good to get since I cruise anyway!

[Jim_Iain]

41 minutes ago, DingoMom said:

You are correct that if you don’t cruise, you will get no OBC. But, like Jim, I am going to cruise anyway, so it is fine with me if my ‘dividends’ are paid in OBC. If I cruise 6 times a year, I am getting $600 a year. I don’t cruise to get the OBC, but it is still good to get since I cruise anyway!

 

I kinda look at that with the price I paid in my first 4 years of cruising I received back more in OBC than I paid for the stock so all the OBC I've received in the ensuing 18 years was all just free money.  

 

Not exactly because there was a period when RCL prohibited double dipping and you couldn't get a Stockholders Credit if you got an OBC as a booking perk.    I almost sold during this period but just forgot I had the stock.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, DingoMom said:

You are correct that if you don’t cruise, you will get no OBC. But, like Jim, I am going to cruise anyway, so it is fine with me if my ‘dividends’ are paid in OBC. If I cruise 6 times a year, I am getting $600 a year. I don’t cruise to get the OBC, but it is still good to get since I cruise anyway!

The only good thing you can get any value for using the cruise line obc is paying gratuities, everything else on the ship is so overpriced it’s pathetic. For what I would spend it on, the $600 would cost them about $35-$40. I’ll take my money, buy dividend paying stocks and either buy what I want or reinvest it. Also the dividends keep coming year after year without having to spend another penny.

[DingoMom]

Mr. Grand, that would make you a very wise investor (and, I really do love your posts!). I cannot (and will not!) argue with your logic. But I have ‘dropped’ x amount of $ into 100 shares (only) and am fine reaping my OBC dividends! Certainly NOT a reason to invest ‘big’ in RCCI, but it works for me for this (admittedly small) stock purchase! 😀