CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion

[Guest ldtr]

7 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

There's been comments about diversification and competitiveness. Here's my contribution.

 

Conglomerates diversify to reduce risk. For example, they might own a staple biz as well as companies highly prone to cyclical influences. The staple biz provides stability while the cyclical biz provide the highlights during the good times.

 

Aerospace companies diversify by adding defense contracts to commercial projects. The different client bases have different economic cycles. Is CCL diversified?

 

Brands must have competitive advantages (CA) in order to survive and thrive. Walmart competes on price with mega-stores (limited locations) because they have huge purchasing power. Suppliers kowtow to them. They have a low price advantage because of their low cost model.

 

On the other hand, chains like K-Mart etc with me-too biz models are no more.

 

Its a truism that luxury brands have high markups. On the other hand, brands with weak CA end up competing on price which they can't afford to. That helps explain why Princess is now the engine of growth for CCL; not Carnival.

 

The Carnival model is inferior (lowest revenue per pax) to the character model of Disney, the quality model of Virgin, and the two-class model of NCL and MSC.

 

Currently, the RCL and NCL groups are focused on three segments (upmarket, mid-market and family) with just one brand for each segment. Instead of diversifying, they are sharpening their focus.

 

RCI will sail a 250k GT mega-ship in 2024. NCL's newest ship (the Prima) is just 140k GT. It will boast of its quality design. In line with NCL's ability to gain twice the pax revenue of Carnival.

 

Meanwhile, MSC continues with their 2-class system and expanding geographically to North America. Their parent company has very deep pockets and MSC could withstand a long price war.

 

Interestingly, MSC's new venture (Explora) will sail Prinsendam-size ships. Perhaps, its a recognition that there are limits to the expansion of mega-ships. Rising local resistance combined with the scarcity of suitable berths will be a future concern.

 

Meanwhile, CCL is severely constricted by their debt load and cash flow requirements. No signs of mental agility in the CCL executive suites. Perhaps, this is of concern to the professional investors (post 322).

 

Hope this helps.

You keep talking about other industries outside of the travel industry. CCL expanded outside of US for the same reason hotels  and airlines do, that is where the expansion opportunities are. Same conclusion RCL did, except RCL lost out to CCL on atleast one of their takeover attempts (P&O Princess if I recall correctly). Without any good takeover candidates RCL went the joint venture and partner route.

 

Take a look at other segments of the travel industry. How many brands do hotels tend to have? They do so to specifically target Markey segments.

 

Look at all of the discount airlines, many of which in other countries are owned by full price companies. I guess you should tell them their strategies are flawed because they focus on price/value.

 

Too funny that you mention other business such as Walmart that grew because they went the price/value route, instead only talking about the purchasing power that model gives them. At the same time criticizing the value model that Carnival and Princess has in their respective market segments, while ignoring how that has driven the size of their business which has also given them cost efficiency advantages. Carnival/Princess have grown because of the value they deliver to their customers. In the case of Princess a producy that many prefer to Celebrity and at a lower price point.

 

You criticize their diversity, yet ignore the advantaged their direct presence in other countries gives them in those regions.

 

Certainly one can find individual items better on other lines  Largely because of their focus, usually at a much higher price.

 

MSC has made price the core strategy driving the main volume of their business, though they also added one of the more recent trends, ship within a ship to that model. Also make sense that they move into the premium/luxury/explorer market. After all that is the area where new money has been flowing. Though it is also the area that tends to be prone to failure if they do not have big bucks from other cruise operations to back them up (Crystal and Vantage as two recent examples)

 

Too funny that you think CCL lines are all inferior to their competition and that their strategy is so poor, yet you spend so much time talking about them.

 

Off to the airport to Vancouver to take first another Princess cruise, followed by another HAL cruise.

Edited July 6, 2023 by ldtr

[mcrcruiser]

8 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

There's been comments about diversification and competitiveness. Here's my contribution.

 

Conglomerates diversify to reduce risk. For example, they might own a staple biz as well as companies highly prone to cyclical influences. The staple biz provides stability while the cyclical biz provide the highlights during the good times.

 

Aerospace companies diversify by adding defense contracts to commercial projects. The different client bases have different economic cycles. Is CCL diversified?

 

Brands must have competitive advantages (CA) in order to survive and thrive. Walmart competes on price with mega-stores (limited locations) because they have huge purchasing power. Suppliers kowtow to them. They have a low price advantage because of their low cost model.

 

On the other hand, chains like K-Mart etc with me-too biz models are no more.

 

Its a truism that luxury brands have high markups. On the other hand, brands with weak CA end up competing on price which they can't afford to. That helps explain why Princess is now the engine of growth for CCL; not Carnival.

 

The Carnival model is inferior (lowest revenue per pax) to the character model of Disney, the quality model of Virgin, and the two-class model of NCL and MSC.

 

Currently, the RCL and NCL groups are focused on three segments (upmarket, mid-market and family) with just one brand for each segment. Instead of diversifying, they are sharpening their focus.

 

RCI will sail a 250k GT mega-ship in 2024. NCL's newest ship (the Prima) is just 140k GT. It will boast of its quality design. In line with NCL's ability to gain twice the pax revenue of Carnival.

 

Meanwhile, MSC continues with their 2-class system and expanding geographically to North America. Their parent company has very deep pockets and MSC could withstand a long price war.

 

Interestingly, MSC's new venture (Explora) will sail Prinsendam-size ships. Perhaps, its a recognition that there are limits to the expansion of mega-ships. Rising local resistance combined with the scarcity of suitable berths will be a future concern.

 

Meanwhile, CCL is severely constricted by their debt load and cash flow requirements. No signs of mental agility in the CCL executive suites. Perhaps, this is of concern to the professional investors (post 322).

 

Hope this helps.

imo a excellent over view of the major cruise lines marketing  focus  .

[Guest ldtr]

Prior to covid the operating net margin for all 3 of the major holding companies were

 

CCL 15.7

RCL 17.1

NCLH 18.2

 

Quite good for large capital intensive businesses. Much better than the historic margins for the cruise line business. A clear sign of the profitability of the industry after several years of capacity expansion and the operational efficiency of larger ships.

 

CCL lines did lag the others in the movement to drink packages and going to the ship within a ship model.  Which did give the other companies a boost. 

 

Since Covid CCL lines now have implemented packages and are pushing them, the same as their competitors. Some CCL lines have added ship within a ship features. Princess will with the launch of the Sun. So far HAL has not moved in the ship within a ship direction.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by ldtr

[mcrcruiser]

54 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Prior to covid the operating net margin for all 3 of the major holding companies were

 

CCL 15.7

RCL 17.1

NCLH 18.2

 

Quite good for large capital intensive businesses. Much better than the historic margins for the cruise line business. A clear sign of the profitability of the industry after several years of capacity expansion and the operational efficiency of larger ships.

 

CCL lines did lag the others in the movement to drink packages and going to the ship within a ship model.  Which did give the other companies a boost. 

 

Since Covid CCL lines now have implemented packages and are pushing them, the same as their competitors. Some CCL lines have added ship within a ship features. Princess will with the launch of the Sun. So far HAL has not moved in the ship within a ship direction.

 

 

Interesting info .Thanks

Edited July 6, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[mcrcruiser]

What a buying opportunity today . Did any one load up ?

[Ride-The-Waves]

Of course.  Always get the best investment tips off the pages of CC...!

[Guest ldtr]

9 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Of course.  Always get the best investment tips off the pages of CC...!

about the same as reddit

[BermudaBound2014]

9 hours ago, ldtr said:

Off to the airport to Vancouver to take first another Princess cruise, followed by another HAL cruise.

 

Safe travels, have a wonderful two cruises. 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

What a buying opportunity today . Did any one load up ?

 

I'm having a difficult time following your train of thought.

 

You language is bearish, yet you call today a buying opportunity?

 

Exactly what buying opportunity? CCL opened at 18.80 and closed at 18.86. Delta six cent swing. 6 CENTS lol!

 

No one makes money on a six cent swing either direction..

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm having a difficult time following your train of thought.

 

You language is bearish, yet you call today a buying opportunity?

 

Exactly what buying opportunity? CCL opened at 18.80 and closed at 18.86. Delta six cent swing. 6 CENTS lol!

 

No one makes money on a six cent swing either direction..

 

 

Buying opportunity for those who do not own the stock ,for at least 100 shares for OBC benefit  .i made some extra pocket cash as well .No not a big day but not a loss either

Edited July 7, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[BermudaBound2014]

On 7/6/2023 at 2:29 PM, mcrcruiser said:

What a buying opportunity today . Did any one load up ?

 

19 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

.No not a big day but not a loss either

 

I'm still confused. Which is it? A buying opportunity people should load up on?  Or 'not a big day'?

 

In the financial world we don't consider 6 cents worth mentioning. 

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

56 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

I'm still confused. Which is it? A buying opportunity people should load up on?  Or 'not a big day'?

 

In the financial world we don't consider 6 cents worth mentioning. 

 

 

 

  Gave you nice folks a chance to buy low ,so I dumped  all my shares at $19.42 each  except the 100 . Better than many OBCs in profits . 

Wishing you  good speed ahead  & may you have a very green day 

[Mary229]

16 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

  Gave you nice folks a chance to buy low ,so I dumped  all my shares at $19.42 each  except the 100 . Better than many OBCs in profits . 

Wishing you  good speed ahead  & may you have a very green day 

OBC is not taxable 

[albingirl]

This thread 👏.  Congratulations 🎊 on your longevity. Very confusing but nontheless...

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, albingirl said:

This thread 👏.  Congratulations 🎊 on your longevity. Very confusing but nontheless...

We all share what we know , the good ,the bad & that is the reason we  post  or should post  information . We hope that people holding shares in CCL do well . It is a challenge until the debt is much lower   .We just have been trading it  .  There are many others   good stocks that are also moving enough  to trade daily 

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, Mary229 said:

OBC is not taxable 

True  .Then it all depends on how much one makes in the market ,how much they pay in taxes . so in the higher income brackets  it then pays to hold treasuries if you live in a State that taxes income . Living in Nevada mTexas ,Teen m/Florida as example there are no state income taxes  ,Here is Cal the taxes are high  

[Mary229]

21 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

True  .Then it all depends on how much one makes in the market ,how much they pay in taxes . so in the higher income brackets  it then pays to hold treasuries if you live in a State that taxes income . Living in Nevada mTexas ,Teen m/Florida as example there are no state income taxes  ,Here is Cal the taxes are high  

Higher tax brackets don’t want to have short term capital gains. Considering a 100 share lot and if I recall you made about $1 a share so $100 gain taxed, now you have $80.  I get $250 per cruise, I think that exceeds your rate of return.   (As I have said in the past I don’t invest in CCL as it doesn’t meet my criteria. )

[Destiny0315]

3 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Gave you nice folks a chance to buy low ,so I dumped  all my shares at $19.42 each  except the 100 . Better than many OBCs in profits . 

Wishing you  good speed ahead  & may you have a very green day 

So is this it? Have you solved Carnival's debt problem? Either way Carnival has continuing issues with security and public relations on some of their cruises which was reflected in posts in the CCL forum earlier this week and in some you tube videos that talk of and show incidents that occurred on their new Carnival Venezia ship last week out of NYC. Reports of very late night/early morning bar fights, arrests made at debarkation which caused extra delays, and a drug sniffing dog that is now part of the crew! Some of the posts on these issues have been removed from CC but a couple of the YT vids are still out there. I have a two week cruise booked on this ship in late Sept. and myself and others that also have one coming up are openly wondering if they can reel this in before then. The 'typical' (not so) FUN stuff that happens on a CCL cruise many people are used to and can deal with it but some of these things seem to go beyond that.

[mcrcruiser]

4 hours ago, Destiny0315 said:

So is this it? Have you solved Carnival's debt problem? Either way Carnival has continuing issues with security and public relations on some of their cruises which was reflected in posts in the CCL forum earlier this week and in some you tube videos that talk of and show incidents that occurred on their new Carnival Venezia ship last week out of NYC. Reports of very late night/early morning bar fights, arrests made at debarkation which caused extra delays, and a drug sniffing dog that is now part of the crew! Some of the posts on these issues have been removed from CC but a couple of the YT vids are still out there. I have a two week cruise booked on this ship in late Sept. and myself and others that also have one coming up are openly wondering if they can reel this in before then. The 'typical' (not so) FUN stuff that happens on a CCL cruise many people are used to and can deal with it but some of these things seem to go beyond that.

hmm been a vert long time that we have been on a Carnival ship but ,have reas in the past about too much drinking ,fights ie . Bot good for the line or corporation or cruising in general , if it gets to main stream media

[BermudaBound2014]

13 hours ago, albingirl said:

This thread 👏.  Congratulations 🎊 on your longevity. Very confusing but nontheless...

 

Thank you! Even I get confused here sometimes, but I do find much of the thread interesting.

 

Some like to chat about Weinerschnitzel and Escargot while others like to discuss the cruise industry from a financial perspective ~ Different strokes/Different folks. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

Going to post this here rather than start a new thread since it’s financial news. This should not have a huge impact on CCL, but may have a significant impact on the cruise industry. 
 

Apparently faulty panels have been installed on 45 cruise ships since 2020 (only one CCL). MSC’s newest ship has been delayed while they figure the recall out. This news has the potential to put a real crimp in the cruise industry comeback. 

 

Paroc has identified 45 boats in operation with the faulty panels, including other types of ships run by other companies“

“The discovery comes as the cruise industry enters the crucial summer season, which will make or break cruise companies’ hopes of surpassing annual passenger volumes from 2019 for the first time since the pandemic dealt a severe blow to the industry.”

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8cfa4fdf-6d8d-486f-8be9-e14cafb36a43

 

I suspect this news will impact the market- but there are never guarantees when it comes to Wall St. 

 

 

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Going to post this here rather than start a new thread since it’s financial news. This should not have a huge impact on CCL, but may have a significant impact on the cruise industry. 
 

Apparently faulty panels have been installed on 45 cruise ships since 2020 (only one CCL). MSC’s newest ship has been delayed while they figure the recall out. This news has the potential to put a real crimp in the cruise industry comeback. 

 

Paroc has identified 45 boats in operation with the faulty panels, including other types of ships run by other companies“

“The discovery comes as the cruise industry enters the crucial summer season, which will make or break cruise companies’ hopes of surpassing annual passenger volumes from 2019 for the first time since the pandemic dealt a severe blow to the industry.”

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8cfa4fdf-6d8d-486f-8be9-e14cafb36a43

 

I suspect this news will impact the market- but there are never guarantees when it comes to Wall St. 

 

 

I am thinking the Rotterdam may need to be retrofitted.  CCL said they have identified the ships in their fleet but i didn’t see a list

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I am thinking the Rotterdam may need to be retrofitted.  CCL said they have identified the ships in their fleet but i didn’t see a list

Why are you thinking Rotterdam? That could be a blow to HAL.

 

No published list yet except the two new ships for MSC Explora brand. 
 

Cruise lines are being tight lipped for very good reason. While some people won’t worry about fire hazard, others will worry that their ship maybe pulled from inventory for an emergency dry dock 

Edited July 9, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Mary229]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

Why are you thinking Rotterdam? 

The report I read indicated this was just uncovered but that these panels have been in inventory for a few years.  

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

The report I read indicated this was just uncovered but that these panels have been in inventory for a few years.  

See above (I edited my post). CCL only has admitted to having one ship across the fleet affected. There are a lot of CCL cruises that have launched since 2020. Carnival could recover from one ship affected faster than HAL

 

RCL is being very tight lipped also. As is NCL but both have admitted to having ships involved. Any ship built since 2020 has potential to be on the list of 45.
 

The report was filed in May and is just coming out to the public. There is potential for dominoes, or not.

Edited July 9, 2023 by BermudaBound2014