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CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion


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Guest ldtr

A little bit on HAL ship build history.

 

HAL built 7760 in capacity with the 4 ship Vista class from 2002 to 2006, they then went right into the slightly larger Signature class whose two ships was a total of 4210.  After than it was a 6 year gap until the 3 Pinnacle ships with their capacity of 7984. 

 

Based upon the age of the ships and the capacity one would expect, even in normal times a similar gap for the next class of ships to come out which would have been in the 2027 time frame.  Too soon for anything to have been in the works or announced prior to Covid.

 

With the impact of Covid I would expect it to be delayed but still probably something by 2030.

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1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Agreed, CCL is likely too big to fail.

 

Ships sailing under the CCL umbrella are vulnerable. 

 

 

IMO, HAL is the weak link under the umbrella.  If there is a consolidation I am not sure HAL will make the cut.  I would love to be wrong as I have three HAL cruises coming up!

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3 minutes ago, FlorenceItaly said:

IMO, HAL is the weak link under the umbrella.  If there is a consolidation I am not sure HAL will make the cut.  I would love to be wrong as I have three HAL cruises coming up!

They have mapped out a plan for HAL that makes it pretty unique out of the main stream cruises lines.  The strategy is pretty simple, the smallest average ship sizes of any of the US focused main stream lines, coupled with the longest average itinerary length.  HAL covers about 200 more unique ports and destinations than Celebrity, and about 100 more than Princess. HAL is pretty much alone in the 40+ itinerary voyages including the grand voyages.  The only thing anywhere close on the other lines are their world voyages.

 

So HALs future is a combination of these unique longer voyages, combined with the normal shorter voyages in Alaska, Europe, and the Caribbean where they are in competition with all of the other lines, but where they introduce people to the brand.

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HAL also offers elegance where others focus more on gimmicks.  I can recall cruising the Atlantic between the US and Europe in the 1950s (first crossing was in 1949 on a HAL ship).  That was the way to travel distances as jet travel became prevalent.  I also recall a 1957 Amsterdam-Houston flight on KLM of 17 hours non-stop.  At my tender age I don't want or need roller coasters, water slides, bumper cars, zip lines and other attractions during a cruise.  Nice ambiance, good food and decent entertainment works well.  HAL offer that in abundance.  We were able to directly compare Oceania (Marina) with HAL (Zaandam) this past year.  While Oceania advertises itself as upscale and the "best cuisine at sea,"  we found their ambiance lacking: food as better to us on HAL, the crew friendlier and fellow passengers more engaging.  HAL has a nice niche.  Keep it.

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33 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

HAL offer that in abundance.  We were able to directly compare Oceania (Marina) with HAL (Zaandam) this past year.  While Oceania advertises itself as upscale and the "best cuisine at sea,"  we found their ambiance lacking: food as better to us on HAL, the crew friendlier and fellow passengers more engaging.  HAL has a nice niche.  Keep it.

Same here. I broke up with HAL in 2017.  I went to Oceania in 2018 thinking as a fan of NCL in my youth it would be a natural fit.  I will never sail on Oceania again.  There have been only a very few times in life that I said never again and that was one.

 

HAL enticed me back in 2019 with a decent welcome back offer and I will stay put for a while.  I would love to try Celebrity but they simply don’t have any itineraries of interest. 

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2 hours ago, ldtr said:

A little bit on HAL ship build history.

 

HAL built 7760 in capacity with the 4 ship Vista class from 2002 to 2006, they then went right into the slightly larger Signature class whose two ships was a total of 4210.  After than it was a 6 year gap until the 3 Pinnacle ships with their capacity of 7984. 

 

Based upon the age of the ships and the capacity one would expect, even in normal times a similar gap for the next class of ships to come out which would have been in the 2027 time frame.  Too soon for anything to have been in the works or announced prior to Covid.

 

With the impact of Covid I would expect it to be delayed but still probably something by 2030.

 

Another way to look at is is that CCL was very committed to building HAL in the decade from 1999-2010. For reasons we won't ever know, they stepped away from the commitment before ordering the Pinnacle class. If they were keeping with the solid commitment to HAL, there should have had a new ship on order before covid.

 

 

Rottterdam 2021

Nieuw Statendam 2018

Konningsam 2016

Six year break

 

Decade of commitment to building HAL: 

Nieuw Amsterdam 2010

Eurodam 2008

Noordam 2006

Westerdam 2004

Oosterdam 2003

Zuiderdam 2002

Zaadam 2000

Volendam 1999

 

Summary:

Eight new ships from 1999-2010

Three new ships from 2011-2021

Zero new ships on the books

 

I think you are being far too optimistic suggesting that will HAL will launch a new ship in 7 years. That means they would need to start building in two. I'll go out on a limb here and say that's fantasy. I'm willing to let time tell that story.

 

For the record: Even with the lack of commitment to HAL new builds, I don't believe that HAL is the most vulnerable of the CCL line. I think that title goes to Costa. 

 

I do like the direction of HAL with their 'niche'. I am a prime consumer for the longer more port intensive itineraries at a more affordable price point when compared to the luxury lines. I hope that this new direction works out. 

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34 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Another way to look at is is that CCL was very committed to building HAL in the decade from 1999-2010. For reasons we won't ever know, they stepped away from the commitment before ordering the Pinnacle class. If they were keeping with the solid commitment to HAL, there should have had a new ship on order before covid.

 

 

Rottterdam 2021

Nieuw Statendam 2018

Konningsam 2016

Six year break

 

Decade of commitment to building HAL: 

Nieuw Amsterdam 2010

Eurodam 2008

Noordam 2006

Westerdam 2004

Oosterdam 2003

Zuiderdam 2002

Zaadam 2000

Volendam 1999

 

Summary:

Eight new ships from 1999-2010

Three new ships from 2011-2021

Zero new ships on the books

 

I think you are being far too optimistic suggesting that will HAL will launch a new ship in 7 years. That means they would need to start building in two. I'll go out on a limb here and say that's fantasy. I'm willing to let time tell that story.

 

For the record: Even with the lack of commitment to HAL new builds, I don't believe that HAL is the most vulnerable of the CCL line. I think that title goes to Costa. 

 

I do like the direction of HAL with their 'niche'. I am a prime consumer for the longer more port intensive itineraries at a more affordable price point when compared to the luxury lines. I hope that this new direction works out. 

Keep in mind when they purchased the line from the Van Der Vorm family, they were launching their own expansion.  Primarily because they needed to expand to compete with other cruise lines as well as to make the best use of their assets. So their choice  at that time was to invest or cell.  Instead Carnival made them a very good offer and they decided to sell. for 530 million Euros in 1989.  Which they turned around and invested in a number of other businesses such as GrandVision which they just sold in 2019 for 7.3 billion Euros.  

 

After the sale CCL built the Statendam Class.  With 2 in 1993 ( I believe that these were actually in the works before the sale) and 1 each in 1994 and 1996.  They then started the Rotterdam class in 1997, 1992 and 2 in 2000. (Two of those ships remain in the Fleet.

 

The ships built after these classes  were larger.  If one looks at things in terms of fleet capacity

you have 35% of the current HAL fleet built within the last 7 years, another 18% within the 7 to14 year period  and another 34% within the 14  21 year period.  Basically 87% within the past 21 years.  The only ships sold were older much smaller ships. Accounting for 12% of the fleet.

 

If you compare that to Princess, There is a very good reason for the spend.  A larger share of Princess Capacity is older than with HAL (and by the way there was a similar gap between the last of the Grand subclasses and the first of the Royal class, 5 years.  53% of HALs capacity is less than 14 years old compared to 46% of Princess).  Taking a look at similar 7 year periods 1-7  31%, 7-14 15%, 14-21  47%.  Roughly 93% of Princesses capacity.  The Grand is even older than that 21 time frame.  Already you have had grand class ships moved out of the fleet .  So pretty clear why the level og investment in Princess the age of their fleet.  If you extend the oldest range beyond 21 years it would account for 46% of HALS fleet capacity compared to 54% of Princesses.

 

The numbers will change a bit when the Sun is launched, but the relative ages of the two fleet do not indicate that HAL has been ignored.

 

Comparing the 2022 annual report capacity  to fleet capacity in 2010 Princess has grown by 22%, HAL by 6% so HAL capacity has expanded less, even though its average fleet age is newer.  However, the family focused lines have grown much faster Carnival  by 39%, Costa by 39%.  P&O Australia by 54%. P&O UK 58%.

 

So while it has not grown as much, it certainly has not been ignored when one compares the age of ships.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Keep in mind when they purchased the line from the Van Der Vorm family, they were launching their own expansion.  Primarily because they needed to expand to compete with other cruise lines as well as to make the best use of their assets. So their choice  at that time was to invest or cell.  Instead Carnival made them a very good offer and they decided to sell. for 530 million Euros in 1989.  Which they turned around and invested in a number of other businesses such as GrandVision which they just sold in 2019 for 7.3 billion Euros.  

 

After the sale CCL built the Statendam Class.  With 2 in 1993 ( I believe that these were actually in the works before the sale) and 1 each in 1994 and 1996.  They then started the Rotterdam class in 1997, 1992 and 2 in 2000. (Two of those ships remain in the Fleet.

 

The ships built after these classes  were larger.  If one looks at things in terms of fleet capacity

you have 35% of the current HAL fleet built within the last 7 years, another 18% within the 7 to14 year period  and another 34% within the 14  21 year period.  Basically 87% within the past 21 years.  The only ships sold were older much smaller ships. Accounting for 12% of the fleet.

 

If you compare that to Princess, There is a very good reason for the spend.  A larger share of Princess Capacity is older than with HAL (and by the way there was a similar gap between the last of the Grand subclasses and the first of the Royal class, 5 years.  53% of HALs capacity is less than 14 years old compared to 46% of Princess).  Taking a look at similar 7 year periods 1-7  31%, 7-14 15%, 14-21  47%.  Roughly 93% of Princesses capacity.  The Grand is even older than that 21 time frame.  Already you have had grand class ships moved out of the fleet .  So pretty clear why the level og investment in Princess the age of their fleet.  If you extend the oldest range beyond 21 years it would account for 46% of HALS fleet capacity compared to 54% of Princesses.

 

The numbers will change a bit when the Sun is launched, but the relative ages of the two fleet do not indicate that HAL has been ignored.

 

Comparing the 2022 annual report capacity  to fleet capacity in 2010 Princess has grown by 22%, HAL by 6% so HAL capacity has expanded less, even though its average fleet age is newer.  However, the family focused lines have grown much faster Carnival  by 39%, Costa by 39%.  P&O Australia by 54%. P&O UK 58%.

 

So while it has not grown as much, it certainly has not been ignored when one compares the age of ships.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Ignored" is qualitative. Is there another cruise line under the CCL umbrella that has expanded it's capacity by less than 6% since 2010?  😉 

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26 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

 

"Ignored" is qualitative. Is there another cruise line under the CCL umbrella that has expanded it's capacity by less than 6% since 2010?  😉 

You could say so a couple had -100% growth rate.

 

The North American focused lines grew less that those focusing on other markets.  The family focused grew more than adult focused.  All of the foreign focused lines grew as much or more than Carnival during that period reflecting how the growth in the industry has occurred. 

 

One of the main reasons other lines have grown faster is that the average size of their ships have grown faster.  One of HALs niche position is the smaller size of its ships compared to the other mass markets.  Their niche of ling itineraries and smaller ship sizes is in line with their growth.

 

THe could have expanded faster by doing like the other CCL lines by going to 5000 passenger ships (Carnival and P&O UK) or by taking older ships from other lines such as P&O Australia taking the older Princess ships, which are older and larger than HAL ships).

 

I prefer the way the line has grown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, ldtr said:

You could say so a couple had -100% growth rate.

 

The North American focused lines grew less that those focusing on other markets.  The family focused grew more than adult focused.  All of the foreign focused lines grew as much or more than Carnival during that period reflecting how the growth in the industry has occurred. 

 

One of the main reasons other lines have grown faster is that the average size of their ships have grown faster.  One of HALs niche position is the smaller size of its ships compared to the other mass markets.  Their niche of ling itineraries and smaller ship sizes is in line with their growth.

 

THe could have expanded faster by doing like the other CCL lines by going to 5000 passenger ships (Carnival and P&O UK) or by taking older ships from other lines such as P&O Australia taking the older Princess ships, which are older and larger than HAL ships).

 

I prefer the way the line has grown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly. Short answer to my question is "no", there is not another brand under the CCL umbrella that has expanded it's capacity less since 2010.

 

 

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Guest ldtr
18 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly. Short answer to my question is "no", there is not another brand under the CCL umbrella that has expanded it's capacity less since 2010.

 

 

Except for the 2 that nolonger exist 

 

You seem to want to ignore that the growth is reasonable based upon growth of the various demographics of the industry over the same time period.

 

Non NA vs NA markets

Family vs Adult.

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14 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Except for the 2 that nolonger exist 

 

You seem to want to ignore that the growth is reasonable based upon growth of the various demographics of the industry over the same time period.

 

Non NA vs NA markets

Family vs Adult.


Nah- just pointing out the obvious. You can draw many conclusions from

the data, but the data doesn’t change. 

 

BTW- using your logic- since Princess has grown at twice the rate of HAL since 2010 (6 ships with 2 more in the works compared to only 3 ships with zero builds for HAL) that must make Princess more of a family line catering to a younger demographic. 🙂

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Guest ldtr
2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:


Nah- just pointing out the obvious. You can draw many conclusions from

the data, but the data doesn’t change. 

 

BTW- using your logic- since Princess has grown at twice the rate of HAL since 2010 (6 ships with 2 more in the works compared to only 3 ships with zero builds for HAL) that must make Princess more of a family line catering to a younger demographic. 🙂

Nope.  If you look at it Princess is  roughly half of the expansion of the Family facing lines.  Its growth has been largely because it is the lowest priced  Adult focused line in its market (Celebrity, HAL and Princess).  Larger ships help it keep its price lower and has been very successful in attracting sections of the adult market, including some segments of the retired population for which Celebrity and even HAL is too expensive.  That may change with the launch of the Sun with both a class system and with more family features.

 

Actually not.  What I stated is when you look at the age of the ships in both lines the existing Princess ships are older and they have more of their capacity getting close to when CCL lines normally phase out ships.  That is in spite of the 22% capacity expansion in the since 2010.   Princess, even with that capacity expansion has about the same percentage of their capacity built in the last 7 years,  and a lot more over 14 years old.  CCL lines tended to get rid of ships in the early 20s age pre-covid due to increased maintenance costs and dry dock requirements.

 

The build rate for HAL has kept the age of the capacity used by the line well distributed with a level of growth that is appropriate for the focus of the line.  Smaller average ship size, longer average itineraries.

 

On the other hand Princess is moving to larger ships, considerably larger than their primary competition of Celebrity.  While more cost efficient those ships are also causing some shrinkage in the itineraries they run and the number of different ports they sail to.

 

Princess is pretty much forced to build because the various Grand class and the subversions are rapidly approaching aging out of the fleet.  The Grand is already past that time.

 

Also unlike Carnival, Princess and P&O that are now using the same foundation for new builds with inside design difference, HAL new builds are unique within the CCL family. I guess it shows that Princess is not getting attention because it only started to build on that platform after P&O and Carnival already had ships completed..

 

 

 

 

 

 

With the capacity expansion in the last 12 years one would expect that Princess would have more newer ships, but that is not the case.

 

Following your logic Princess must not be getting much commitment from CCL as well because clearly their growth was less than CCL, P&O UK, P&O Australia, Aida, Costa, and even Cunard.

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Guest ldtr

A little more of competitive pricing  Here is a link to Market watch.

 

https://cruisemarketwatch.com/market-share/

 

Based upon this data

 

HAL, Princess, and Celebrity came in at the following revenue per passenger in 2021

 

HAL 2850

Celebrity 2689

Princess 2530

 

Now there are some limits to that data.  Primarily that it was in 2021 with all of its pricing variations during the restart.  As well as one having to adjust for average cruise length since it is by passenger.  That adjustment would move Celebrity up a bit and Hal down a bit, but would clearly leave Princess at the lowest revenue per passenger of the 3.

 

If you compare that to actual family focused lines (where you often get the discounts of 2rd and 4th person in a cabin and with the much shorter average cruise lengths you get.

 

Carnival  713

Royal Caribbean  1147

NCL  1,714

 

Of those 3 Carnival has the shortest average cruise length, followed by RCL and then NCL being the longest of the 3.  NCL has also tended to be successful with it combination approach with Haven.

 

On the other hand when you start getting into the Premium range you get numbers like Oceania with 5,248 per passenger .  With the luxury brands you get numbers more like Seabourns   10,210.

 

Now this data set is not perfect.  Especially for during the restart.  You also have some lines for which the numbers do not seem to match up with the fares charged such as Viking.  Even before the shutdown its numbers always came in low.  That might be because it is privately held and as such the data might not be as easily soruced as that from the more public companies.

 

But one can use this data set and others like it and the cruise lines tend to fall into pretty recognizable classes based upon the revenue per passenger and other metrics.

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14 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Keep in mind, CCL was the only cruise line losing value in the market for the years preceding the pandemic (2018-2020).   And CCL has recovered the least post covid (not that market price should be the strongest indicator)

 

 

image.thumb.png.3daf871a7e70b6f9793ca148ec8501e7.png

 

 

 

Not a surprise.. During the pandemic, CCL's market value declined steeply. At one point, the market rated NCL at 70% of CCL even though they only had 40% of the revenues.

 

Look at the list of cruise brands. CCL may be the largest group, but none of their brands demonstrate clear competitive advantages.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cruise_lines

 

In the family cruises segment, RCI is actually the clear leader with $3b in revenues. NCL is second with Carnival in third, as MSC is racing to overtake them. Look at the dismal revenues per CCL pax. Far less than anyone else..

 

In the mid-price segment, Princess is the leader but Celebrity is close behind, and HAL is lagging in third.

 

Competitive advantage is important in any industry. COSTCO retails in a warehouse facility, selling a value proposition in large lots. Walmart uses its purchasing power to guarantee Everyday Low Prices.

 

With a clear competitive advantage based on a superior biz model, COSTCO and Walmart have expanded organically. Without a competitive advantage, CCL has chosen to buy brands and build more ships.

 

The problem with using capacity expansion as the engine of growth is that you end up with surplus capacity. Since 2013, CCL cruise fare per pax day has been flat. To maintain the profit margin, CCL has depended on greater efficiencies from larger ships.

 

During the pandemic, CCL had many large empty ships. Today, CCL still has many large ships to fill.

 

IMHO, its HAL that actually has a sustainable competitive advantage. Its rated top for service by Cruise Critic Editor. Once HAL is downsized to the right size, HAL can be profitable with an older customer base.

 

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Guest ldtr
3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Not a surprise.. During the pandemic, CCL's market value declined steeply. At one point, the market rated NCL at 70% of CCL even though they only had 40% of the revenues.

 

Look at the list of cruise brands. CCL may be the largest group, but none of their brands demonstrate clear competitive advantages.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cruise_lines

 

In the family cruises segment, RCI is actually the clear leader with $3b in revenues. NCL is second with Carnival in third, as MSC is racing to overtake them. Look at the dismal revenues per CCL pax. Far less than anyone else..

 

In the mid-price segment, Princess is the leader but Celebrity is close behind, and HAL is lagging in third.

 

Competitive advantage is important in any industry. COSTCO retails in a warehouse facility, selling a value proposition in large lots. Walmart uses its purchasing power to guarantee Everyday Low Prices.

 

With a clear competitive advantage based on a superior biz model, COSTCO and Walmart have expanded organically. Without a competitive advantage, CCL has chosen to buy brands and build more ships.

 

The problem with using capacity expansion as the engine of growth is that you end up with surplus capacity. Since 2013, CCL cruise fare per pax day has been flat. To maintain the profit margin, CCL has depended on greater efficiencies from larger ships.

 

During the pandemic, CCL had many large empty ships. Today, CCL still has many large ships to fill.

 

IMHO, its HAL that actually has a sustainable competitive advantage. Its rated top for service by Cruise Critic Editor. Once HAL is downsized to the right size, HAL can be profitable with an older customer base.

 

I have to admit that I found this to have some of the funniest comments of this entire discussion. Especially the one about competitive advantage. Cruise lines are in the travel industry. Ask yourself what are the reasons you choose one hotel over another, one airline over another, one restaurant over another. All of those little nuances that are used in an individual making a decision can be and often are the basis of competitive advantage. Location routes, price, decor, brand recognition, brand loyalty, etc. 

 

Carnival as always competed on price. Princess does as well for its segment of the market. For HAL one of its is its unique itineraries.  To really look at competitive advantages one needs to look at it based upon the business and look at it the same way one would compare hilton vs Marriott or American vs united. 

 

Ask yourself why you chose a particular hotel or airline or for that matter cruiseline and then you see what competitive advantages that cruise line has for you.

 

As far as expansion during the period pre covid. That was the same game for all of  mass market cruise lines. Limited pricing power due to competition in the rest of the travel industry, but a growing overall industry. All.played the same game. A bit different in the premium and luxury market.

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2 hours ago, ldtr said:

Ask yourself why you chose a particular hotel or airline or for that matter cruiseline and then you see what competitive advantages that cruise line has for you.

Sometimes, effectively, you have little choice. If you want to sail or fly out of a certain city you have to use the resources that are available.

 

For instance, if you happen to live in the Greater Atlanta area you use Atlanta Airport and most likely will fly Delta. From a website Airport-atl dot com there are 1061 flights out of Atlanta today (5 July) of which 794 are Delta or a code share partner. There are 20 flights out of Atlanta to Fort Lauderdale of which 11 are Delta. In the other direction there are 1054 incoming flights today of which 787 are Delta.

 

 

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1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

Today July 5th CCL is going to open lower .Markets flashing red

 

So? You can not use after hours trading as any sort of reliable predictor. As a day trader you should know this. 

 

As evidenced today. CCL ran up at the bell. That means very little also. 

 

Have you thought about sitting this game out? I say that with kindness and concern.

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15 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

CCL has shown a much stronger commitment to Princess new builds.

 

image.thumb.png.a8e140011db3201d95ff44b41fdba429.png

 

 

Ccl's Commitment to Carnival new builds:

image.png.147a39eb8c15146fea2aebd9685e18b1.png

 

 

Even costa had more aggressive new build schedule:

image.png.0240a421e06ce16f7d1fcf4d4115f2d3.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

How about the two P&Os, Aida, Cunard and Seabourn?  Note that some Costa ships are now reassigned to North America.   There was a recent disclosure to one of our forum members by a HAL rep that there was to soon be an acquisition announcement.  It was not divulged it it is a new ship, a refurbished ship or a reassigned ship.

Edited by Mary229
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8 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

How about the two P&Os, Aida, Cunard and Seabourn?  Note that some Costa ships are now reassigned to North America.   There was a recent disclosure to one of our forum members by a HAL rep that there was to soon be an acquisition announcement.  It was not divulged it it is a new ship, a refurbished ship or a reassigned ship.

 

An acquisition into the HAL family would be a very good sign for HAL's stability. 

 

My posting the age of Princess ships was more of a tongue in cheek response to making a case that Princess is the younger demographic based on their new build schedule. As I've said many times, I do not believe HAL is the most vulnerable in the linage. But I also acknowledge that anything is possible.

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40 minutes ago, Sea42 said:
Or not
 
Carnival Corp
 
$19.23
 
1.42%
+0.27 Today
Jul 5, 9:40:42 AM UTC-4 · USD · NYSE · Disclaimer
 
Actually a bit lower . The original amount od share I nought still have over 1000 which I can sell into the rise  
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