Future of Carnival fleet - 2027 and beyond.

[787cruiser]

Well we all know that Jubilee will be the final new build ship for Carnival for some years to come as it's already been confirmed that by 2026 all existing orders should have arrived and there will be no more new deliveries across all Carnival corporation brands. 2027 and beyond will be scaled back to possibly 1 or 2 ships a year, again across all brands, so what do we think the future holds specifically for the Carnival fleet?

 

The Fantasy and Sunshine class ships are up there in age and will be at or approaching the 30year mark by the time 2027 rolls around. These are some of the oldest ships across all brands so I'm assuming will be earmarked for replacement first. I can see one of the first new orders we see again will be to replace these ships but also looking ahead at the Spirit class replacements. My reckoning would be that we see something in the 90,000GT/Panamax style to maintain flexibility to sail out of height restricted ports and move between east and west cost ports.

 

I don't believe we'll see an order for ships larger than the Excel class for at least a decade if at all. I do think we could see a new class of ship somewhere in the 150-160,000GT range possibly for expansion or a mix in replacing the smaller Fantasy/Sunshine/Spirit ships.  

 

With the Conquest class ships it wouldn't at all surprise me if we see some type of "Sunshine" renovation to a few of them to make the fun ship 3.0 and to extend their lives. I can see so much potential with them, there seems to be so much under utilized space on the upper decks.

 

The Venice class ships - do we see these staying in the fleet? Im skeptical, we can already assume bookings are not what they hoped as Venezia is unable to stay in NY year round. Im not sure how Firenze will fare on the west coast. I think ultimately 1 or both of the ships could move to Adora.

 

Love to hear people thoughts.

[dolphinsfan246]

Unfortunately I don’t think Carnival will build any ships in the 90k ton range probably ever again. For the height restricted ports I know Carnival and other lines were pushing them to build terminals on the other side of their bridges, this would ultimately force those ports hands into having to do it to stay in the industry. With the new Panama Canal locks that can accommodate ships of almost any size, the need for smaller ships just isn’t there, and the larger ships are way more profitable. I think you hit it right that their next new class would be around 150k-160k, I could definitely see that. They are going to have to be creative to offer “new” ships in the coming years. Like you said I think they will do a few “sunshine” type renovations probably on the Conquest or even Spirit class ships possibly with new names to market them as new. I thought if the Costa concept went well we could definitely see more transfers from Costa (Diadema or dare I say Smeralda or Toscana) because honestly I don’t think the Costa brand is gonna last another 15 years. However once it was announced Venezia already got sent to Florida , it’s obvious those must not be selling well. It’s definitely gonna be interesting to see how they stay competitive in a vastly evolving market over the next 5-10 years. 

[tidecat]

We should get an earnings update soon, so we may get some clarity on whether or not there will be any 2027 orders.

 

I'm still inclined to think no ships will be delivered before 2028. Carnival Sunshine will be the oldest ship in the company (not just Carnival Cruise Line), with Pacific Explorer (P&O Australia) close behind. I think Carnival gets a 1:1 replacement, while Costa Fortuna gets sent to P&O Australia and Costa gets the other 2028 newbuild.

 

I think we'll see more ships pushed out towards the 32-33 year range. There needs to be some way to space out the replacements for all of the ships built between 1998-2010.

[787cruiser]

13 minutes ago, tidecat said:

We should get an earnings update soon, so we may get some clarity on whether or not there will be any 2027 orders.

 

I would love to seen order announcement this year but I just can't see it happening until next year at the earliest.

 

15 minutes ago, tidecat said:

I think we'll see more ships pushed out towards the 32-33 year range. There needs to be some way to space out the replacements for all of the ships built between 1998-2010.

 

I agree with you here. There are a lot of ships across the corporation that came online in those years.

[787cruiser]

37 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

Unfortunately I don’t think Carnival will build any ships in the 90k ton range probably ever again. For the height restricted ports I know Carnival and other lines were pushing them to build terminals on the other side of their bridges, this would ultimately force those ports hands into having to do it to stay in the industry. With the new Panama Canal locks that can accommodate ships of almost any size, the need for smaller ships just isn’t there, and the larger ships are way more profitable. I think you hit it right that their next new class would be around 150k-160k, I could definitely see that. They are going to have to be creative to offer “new” ships in the coming years. Like you said I think they will do a few “sunshine” type renovations probably on the Conquest or even Spirit class ships possibly with new names to market them as new. I thought if the Costa concept went well we could definitely see more transfers from Costa (Diadema or dare I say Smeralda or Toscana) because honestly I don’t think the Costa brand is gonna last another 15 years. However once it was announced Venezia already got sent to Florida , it’s obvious those must not be selling well. It’s definitely gonna be interesting to see how they stay competitive in a vastly evolving market over the next 5-10 years. 

I know the Panama Canal locks can accommodate pretty much any ship now but isn't it much cheaper to for the smaller ships? Hence why they only really move the Spirit class around, why don't they ever move Conquest class ships to the west coast?

 

For me I just can't see the Costa concept playing out, if more ships are transferred out I don't see them coming to Carnival unless they are overhauled to be 100% Carnival. I think they would go elsewhere in the corporation. As to the future viability of Costa I have no clue!

[spencercoop]

22 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

I know the Panama Canal locks can accommodate pretty much any ship now but isn't it much cheaper to for the smaller ships? Hence why they only really move the Spirit class around, why don't they ever move Conquest class ships to the west coast?

 

For me I just can't see the Costa concept playing out, if more ships are transferred out I don't see them coming to Carnival unless they are overhauled to be 100% Carnival. I think they would go elsewhere in the corporation. As to the future viability of Costa I have no clue!

 

Before the pandemic happened it was planned for the Carnival Freedom to operate Alaska cruises and do Panama Canal cruises back and forth between the east and west coast.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, spencercoop said:

 

Before the pandemic happened it was planned for the Carnival Freedom to operate Alaska cruises and do Panama Canal cruises back and forth between the east and west coast.

I'm wondering if Carnival should move Firenze to Seattle during the summer, and either let Luminosa sail out of Long Beach during the summer, or even let Spirit stay in Mobile year-round and keep alternating Luminosa between Brisbane and Seattle. Given what some of the Luminosa Alaska cruises are going for, that might make for better revenue yield overall.

[Joebucks]

It's probably a bit concerning. I wonder if the cruise lines can even really see that far ahead.

 

I do think they are onto something with the Venice class though. Regardless of what is going on with it now, or the New York market's limitations, I think it presents an interesting opportunity. As much as I love my Carnival experience, having that same experience each time can lose its luster. I think it's hard to doubt these ships have garnered a lot more attention than we expected. Theming presents an interesting alternative if massive new builds are not an option. 

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, 787cruiser said:

I know the Panama Canal locks can accommodate pretty much any ship now but isn't it much cheaper to for the smaller ships? Hence why they only really move the Spirit class around, why don't they ever move Conquest class ships to the west coast?

 

For me I just can't see the Costa concept playing out, if more ships are transferred out I don't see them coming to Carnival unless they are overhauled to be 100% Carnival. I think they would go elsewhere in the corporation. As to the future viability of Costa I have no clue!

Smaller ships have far higher cost per passenger capital build costs, and well as higher cost per passenger operational costs.  That is the primary reason that all of the mass market lines (both family focused  Royal, Carnival, Norwegian and the adult focused Celebrity, Princess and HAL) all tend to move up in size over time.  All due to the cost efficiency that comes with size.

[787cruiser]

8 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Smaller ships have far higher cost per passenger capital build costs, and well as higher cost per passenger operational costs.  That is the primary reason that all of the mass market lines (both family focused  Royal, Carnival, Norwegian and the adult focused Celebrity, Princess and HAL) all tend to move up in size over time.  All due to the cost efficiency that comes with size.

 

Where's the sweet spot then in terms of size? Aren't the RC Oasis class and soon Icon class back in the higher cost category?

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, 787cruiser said:

 

Where's the sweet spot then in terms of size? Aren't the RC Oasis class and soon Icon class back in the higher cost category?

Thr question is not a sweet spot concerning cost efficiency. Because the larger you build the lower the cost per passenger. Assuming similar sq feet per passenger  

 

The issue is more what are the practical limits on size from either an engineering or usability perspective.

 

20 years ago the Princess Grand class at 2800 passengers was big, now we have several ship by different companies over 6000 (in family focused mass market).

 

No sign yet of the trend stopping.

[jimbo5544]

A large part of new builds is demand.  The addition of the three Costa ships was a multipurpose plan.  Costa had to rethink their far east plans due to the down turn in China and Carnival had gaps with the moth balling of the majority of the Fantasy Class.  These changes are going to have to suffice in regards to new ships.  

 

Whether the Costa Carnival experience will work is up for debate, but the start is strong.  I only see two down sides to the Venezia from first looks, the number of pools (guess the Italians do. to swim as much as Americans...) and the lack of a pool in the area Carnival calls Havana.

 

The days of 90K ton ship for Carnival are long gone, wishing for them will not make it happen.  There are def drawbacks to the mega liner size.  They cannot facilitate tender only ports, and their main focus is the ship, not the port.  The loss of the true essence of cruising will certainly be an issue for some who sail on them (was me me).

 

If I had to guess, I would expect a new ship for Carnival for 2028 and it would be a modified Excel class,  We shall see,., 

[UPNYGuy]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:57 AM, jimbo5544 said:

If I had to guess, I would expect a new ship for Carnival for 2028 and it would be a modified Excel class,  We shall see,., 

 

This post was bang on. They announced a 4th Excel for 2027.

[tidecat]

38 minutes ago, UPNYGuy said:

 

This post was bang on. They announced a 4th Excel for 2027.

And then shortly after that a 5th Excel class for 2028.

[jxtgreek]

I wish these cruise lines would comment on what their plans are for ports such as Tampa.

[Thorncroft]

44 minutes ago, jxtgreek said:

I wish these cruise lines would comment on what their plans are for ports such as Tampa.

If Tampa would dredge under the bridge to lower the water level, any ship should be able to clear the bridge, right? No problems. 🤭

[dolphinsfan246]

1 hour ago, jxtgreek said:

I wish these cruise lines would comment on what their plans are for ports such as Tampa.

I think Tampa needs to comment on what their plans to accommodate their future is. It’s not going to go the other way around. 

[UPNYGuy]

This is highly speculative, but this does not bode well for the future of the fantasy class. Those are the smallest ships in the fleet. I can see carnival repurposing two spirit class ships to fill the void. 
 

Plus, those that like the fantasy class really love them. The flipside is those that hate them absolutely despise them. It seems those ships are extremely polarizing because of the lack of features, and the age. 

[tidecat]

6 hours ago, jxtgreek said:

I wish these cruise lines would comment on what their plans are for ports such as Tampa.

If all of the Spirit class live to be 30-35, this will be an issue sometime next decade if not the early 2040s. Luminosa was built in 2009 and is presumably the last out for the height-restricted ports.

 

Carnival has an option with the port of Jacksonville to stay there through 2030 when Elation will be 32 years old, so that should offer us some clue.

 

Tampa and Jacksonville may ultimately get screwed by their proximity to Port Canaveral. Mainstream lines are not going to build smaller ships. The upmarket lines may come in behind them but they will have issues by the 2050s as they are also building progressively larger ships.

[jimbo5544]

7 hours ago, jxtgreek said:

I wish these cruise lines would comment on what their plans are for ports such as Tampa.

 

6 hours ago, Thorncroft said:

If Tampa would dredge under the bridge to lower the water level, any ship should be able to clear the bridge, right? No problems. 🤭

The cruise lines already have decided what they are doing.  There is a better chance of building a new port than them building smaller ships.

 

Not sure I understand the logic in dredging, sea level to the span clearance does not change by making channel deeper….or did I miss something.  Now if you had a sky hook and a bridge stretcher and rise it up 50 ft or so….that would work.  🤔

[jimbo5544]

47 minutes ago, tidecat said:

If all of the Spirit class live to be 30-35, this will be an issue sometime next decade if not the early 2040s. Luminosa was built in 2009 and is presumably the last out for the height-restricted ports.

 

Carnival has an option with the port of Jacksonville to stay there through 2030 when Elation will be 32 years old, so that should offer us some clue.

 

Tampa and Jacksonville may ultimately get screwed by their proximity to Port Canaveral. Mainstream lines are not going to build smaller ships. The upmarket lines may come in behind them but they will have issues by the 2050s as they are also building progressively larger ships.

I do not know heights or other potential issues, would Luminosa clear the Sunshine?  Fit at the pier?

[Jamman54]

20 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I do not know heights or other potential issues, would Luminosa clear the Sunshine?  Fit at the pier?

Luminosa is a Spirit Class ship, so yes. 😎

[jimbo5544]

12 minutes ago, Jamman54 said:

Luminosa is a Spirit Class ship, so yes. 😎

Well that sure makes her a viable ship for Tampa/Baltimore, and way younger than the rest of the Spirit class….  That said, they are going NOWHERE anytime soon (and we are better off for having them as long as they can continue to sail).  

[jimbo5544]

17 minutes ago, Jamman54 said:

Luminosa is a Spirit Class ship, so yes. 😎

Thanks, to lazy to look this early in the morning…..

[JMAE]

The industry is anticipating strong growth for the next few years.  When we see price moderation, we will know the cruise lines are forecasting a softening of the market.  Currently, the market is strong, and demand is very high.  When there is a market downturn it may become difficult to sail a fill the mega ships and the smaller ships may be more profitable since they would be able to fill them in a down market and their cost of operation is less.  With that said, I believe CCLs has 9 cruise lines in their portfolio, with CCL being the largest and most attractive to new cruises due to price, departure ports, etc. In the future I believe CCL we come up with a corporate loyalty program to introduce CCL guests to their other brands (some with smaller ships) and CCL will build ships the market dictates and may include smaller ships to maintain their drive to the port marketing.