Standby for Higher Cruise Prices

[hrhdhd]

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

That is hurricane season.  As recently as 2021 I was chased off of the offshore island for not one, but two hurricane evacuations.  One in June and one in July.  The season is June 1 to November 1

More bad news: hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30. 😉

[Mary229]

4 minutes ago, hrhdhd said:

More bad news: hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30. 😉

That’s no problem for me   I guess that is the new politically correct season. 

[bajae]

4 hours ago, Destiny0315 said:

Bring a third ship up to Boston for the summer and run a few 10-14 day r/t itineraries to the Caribbean which is currently a totally untapped market from here. Gear it towards the adult market and maybe even develop a 14 day r/t cruise to the Azores. 

I would love a 14 day r/t to the Azores.

[JeffElizabeth]

On a cruise right now and it seems like cruisers are penny pinching. Not nearly as much drinking as I used to see.

[CNSJ]

28 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Doesn't Princess use one or both of those smaller ships for their world cruises though?

 

In 2024-2025 they are using the Crown Princess, but also Island Princess.

Edited July 30, 2023 by CNSJ
error

[cruisemom42]

53 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

That’s no problem for me   I guess that is the new politically correct season. 

 

Don't think it has anything to do with politics. 

 

It is factually verifiable that the oceans are growing warmer earlier and staying warmer longer. Those conditions lead to a greater likelihood of hurricanes throughout a longer hurricane season.

 

https://www.barrons.com/news/n-atlantic-ocean-temperature-sets-record-high-us-agency-e7b5e721

 

 

That said, modern navigation and weather monitoring are good enough now that cruising the Caribbean during hurricane season should not be a barrier. Ships can be rerouted and avoid storms. 

 

As with anything, though, it is caveat emptor. If you book a Caribbean cruise in summer, don't complain if it has to be re-routed due to weather.

 

[Lakesregion]

On 7/28/2023 at 8:21 PM, CNSJ said:

In the first few seasons following COVID-19, the cruise industry worked hard to get people back on ship.  There were those afraid to sail without masks and those who didn't want to wear one.  Somehow we made it through, but the cruise lines kept losing money as we found our way back aboard.  Now people want to cruise again!  The cruise lines all have big debt loads and need to generate cash.  Bottom line:  HAL needs to make money to pay its debt and return a dividend to its shareholders. 

 

Right now Carnival Corp is boasting very full ships for 2023 and very strong demand in 2024.  Demand is up, supply is pretty much steady (less Carnival recycling Costa ships and the crazy MSC buildout) so the simple facts is prices go up.  Throw in inflation and other things impacting operating costs....and we will see higher prices.  If they reduce the number of ships (get rid of less efficient money makers) - prices have to go up as there is less supply of cabin days. 

 

I would be curious to see the revenue models for the CCL Cruise line family.  Carnival ships may charge less (than HAL) per passenger day at sea for a comparable cabin (Oceanview to Oceanview / Balcony to Balcony) but they likely have a higher number of average passengers per cabin, and my guess is the non fare revenue (booze/speciality/spa etc.) is higher than on HAL.  The most basic formula is revenue minus the cost of goods & services = profit.  I imagine that HAL non-fare revenue per adult passenger per day is 50% lower than Carnival fleet wide.  Throw in more people and the non-fare revenue per square foot of cabin might be in the 65% lower range.  

 

HAL needs to earn a profit.  It's a business, and the forecast is up for the cruise industry.  Prices will rise on everything.  

 

Standby for Higher Cruise Prices.  Deals will be fewer and farther than between.  Cruise less or spend more.  Maybe a bit of both. 

 

 

Ifthat istrue, Iwonder why I keep getting "privatesale" letters offering 10 day cruises at $499 - $699 for obstructed view out side cabins etc.  I thnik before you see fares rise you will see more of the nickle and dime increases in packages, specialty restaurants, new "clubs" , shore excirsions and so on. It is much easier to releive a booked customer of a few extra dollars a day with all manner of gimmicks than it is to convince an unbooked passenger that the cuise is worth it at a 10 - 20% fae increase.

[KAKcruiser]

I agree with the poster who mentioned the limited Caribbean ports on the Rotterdam.  This is this best and newest ship and the itineraries are not appealing.  The nine day only goes to 4 ports one of which is Bonaire which is limiting cruise ships resulting in last minutes port cancellations.  The twelve day Panama Canal only goes to six ports and one of them is Key West, again a port that is limiting cruise ships resulting in last minute port cancellations.  Not everyone likes all those sea days.

[Guest ldtr]

11 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I think Princess and HAL bet too big on Alaska.  I imagine that will have to reverse and those ships be deployed elsewhere in 2025 and forward. This was in reaction to people not wanting to travel far post Covid. 

Both HAL and Princess get a lot of first time cruisers in Alaska.  Was just on Princess doing the Vancouver to Whittier back to Vancouver loop that primarily picks up and drops off passengers connecting to their cruise tours.  75% on both legs were first time Princess cruisers.  Most doing land tours.  Both HAL and Princess sell cabins on those routes out of Vancouver pretty cheap.  Usually the lowest price Alaska fare that they have, because they make quite a bit on the land tour passengers and are happy to fill the rest of the cabins cheaply.  Ship was the Majestic with 3800 going north and 3600 coming south.  200 of the north bound passengers stayed on for the southbound.

 

Comparing Alaska fares to Europe is like shopping for oranges and comparing them to the price of watermelon.

[hrhdhd]

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

That’s no problem for me   I guess that is the new politically correct season. 

If "new" is 1965. 

[OlsSalt]

Mind the gap, between climatologist predictions and observed incidence of weather patterns:

https://dailysceptic.org/2022/12/08/massive-reduction-in-cyclonic-storm-energy-across-northern-hemisphere-in-2022/?highlight=oceans getting warmer

 

We are still coming out of the last Northern hemisphere Ice Age 10,000 years ago, so gradual warming should be a natural part of this cycle.  

 

13 billion years is a long time to measure post-Big Bang temperatures on planet earth with any certainty. Core and mantle fluidity plays its hand in surface ocean temperatures as well.  Not much we can do about that. 

 

As a Maasdam In Depth geologist was always fond of saying: civilization exists only with the permission of geologic forces.

[Blackduck59]

Many people seem to go to Alaska more than once. Some will do a return trip out of Vancouver or Seattle first and then go again for a cruise tour or a different itinerary. I haven't heard of ships from any of the lines sailing the Alaska route half empty. Some lines are using their biggest barges on that route. Remember if you want to see glacier Bay it's going to be on a Princess or HAL ship. We will eventually go back and it will include Glacier Bay this time and a land portion that includes The Yukon. I spent 7 weeks there in the summer of 1977 and am interested to see how it has changed. If the itinerary includes Ketchikan I doubt we will get off the ship. I doubt HAL is interested in diverting resources from Alaska for some booze cruises in the Caribbean or Mexico.

[Haljo1935]

10 hours ago, POA1 said:

I will take that bet. HAL has been in Alaska for more than 75 years. It's a truly spectacular place to cruise.

 

Where would you send your ships during the summer season?

If I had ships, or even A ship, I'd sent them/it to Alaska. Since I don't, I will go on HALs ships 🚢

[Mary229]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

 

As with anything, though, it is caveat emptor. If you book a Caribbean cruise in summer, don't complain if it has to be re-routed due to weather.

 

Everyone is an armchair climate scientist 🙄

 

And don’t complain that it is hot.   I always laugh when I hear people decrying HAL because they had to wait outside in the deadly heat 85 degrees!  Try August.  I assure you the affects of a hurricane are not transitory as many are stating.  I have been through too many from storm watch to recovery to say we can just outrun it. 

 

on another topic, sorry to offend all of the Alaska lovers, I like it too but it is obvious that HAL went too far in this.  They are offering the lowest rates of any line.  I don’t know it it is because they have too many ships or that their competitors came on stronger than they expected.  They are committed now, they will either have to continue to lower prices to fill ships.  Perhaps their hope was to flood the market in order to capture the market, I don’t think that is working out for them - yet.  If they go into the Caribbean in the summer they can expect to have to even offer cheaper fares in an even more competitive market = fraught with the other problems of heat and weather. 
 

There may be a market for a transit cruise from Boston but I think the better programs would be to develop the Canadian Maritimes market and perhaps add more transits to Northern Europe.  I do like the Azores idea.  That could be a market from both Boston and Europe.  If I recall my tour guide history, there are more people of Azores descent in New England than there are in Azores 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Mary229

[rodndonna]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

 

There may be a market for a transit cruise from Boston but I think the better programs would be to develop the Canadian Maritimes market and perhaps add more transits to Northern Europe.  I do like the Azores idea.  That could be a market from both Boston and Europe.  If I recall my tour guide history, there are more people of Azores descent in New England than there are in Azores 

 

Yes to more Canadian ports! Being selfish in part (from the region) but also because I have been eyeing the HAL cruises to Newfoundland (where I have yet to venture) but they appear to have actually reduced the sailings in 2024 from what they are in 2023 for options doing doing multiple NFLD ports.  HAL is about the only "fare friendly" option to get to multiple ports in NFLD, so hoping 2025 offering is back to 2023 offering.

 

Azores would be great. Another 2025 short list contender for us is an NCL Canary Islands cruise because it included ports invthe Azores. Again, not a lot of "fare-friendly" options getting to the Azores so nice if HAL went there.

[Destiny0315]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

sorry to offend all of the Alaska lovers, I like it too but it is obvious that HAL went too far in this.  They are offering the lowest rates of any line.

Did HAL go too far with Alaska, or did everyone else just catch up? HAL and Princess owned the lucrative market for many years but now every major line and many minors have at least a ship or two up there. One of the reasons I see for the increased interest in cruising the cold weather regions(Alaska, Norway, Iceland/Greenland)is the climate situation as more people read, see and hear about the changes occurring in them whether they be natural and/or man made.

 

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

There may be a market for a transit cruise from Boston but I think the better programs would be to develop the Canadian Maritimes market and perhaps add more transits to Northern Europe.  I do like the Azores idea.  That could be a market from both Boston and Europe.  If I recall my tour guide history, there are more people of Azores descent in New England than there are in Azores

HAL has also owned the summer market to the Canadian Maritimes for decades. They were looking to expand about a decade ago with extended cruises into Newfoundland but then they, and everyone else, were sidetracked by the opening up of Cuba to ships in 2014. They have returned to that idea and now do go to Newfoundland albeit through the Boston-Montreal route. Maybe dedicate a full circumnavigation Newfoundland/Labrador cruise with also a stop in St. Pierre et Miquelon r/t from Boston and/or Montreal would sell.

 

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

add more transits to Northern Europe.  I do like the Azores idea.  That could be a market from both Boston and Europe.  If I recall my tour guide history, there are more people of Azores descent in New England than there are in Azores 

Yes Portugal's islands, the Azores and Madeira, are fertile properties for the cruise market from both the Northeast USA and Europe. They are usually visited on TA voyages by some lines but I don't think any of them really make them a destination cruise area mainly because of where they sit in the Atlantic. There are upwards of 125,000 people born in Portugal and over a half a million people of Portuguese descent in the Boston/New York metropolitan area alone which is the largest in the country and could be marketed too for such a cruise.  

[Mary229]

24 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

Yes to more Canadian ports! Being selfish in part (from the region)

It is a budget friendly destination and truly has much to offer. The iceberg views from the Atlantic trail in St John’s’ are not to be missed.  The food is downhome great offering lobster, mussels and even the eastern province specials like poutine and maple syrup.   There is abundant wildlife viewing and famous world heritage sites.  I am sure the Maritime provinces would welcome more tourists.  Hopefully if it does catch on they will establish guidelines quickly so we don’t have to suffer from the current debacles of turning cruise ships away who have established contracts .  That is not a healthy business environment.

[kazu]

I think more expanded cruises to Newfoundland would be great - and in the summer, not September when we hit the peak of our tropical storms.

 

the only itinerary visiting 3 ports in Newfoundland this year is September 3rd on the Zaandam.  I had it booked and then remembered Fiona, etc.  

Itineraries in the summer when Newfoundland has good weather with less chance of tropical storms would be wonderful.

[friendswithdave]

2 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Everyone is an armchair climate scientist 🙄

 

And don’t complain that it is hot.   I always laugh when I hear people decrying HAL because they had to wait outside in the deadly heat 85 degrees!  Try August.  I assure you the affects of a hurricane are not transitory as many are stating.  I have been through too many from storm watch to recovery to say we can just outrun it. 

 

on another topic, sorry to offend all of the Alaska lovers, I like it too but it is obvious that HAL went too far in this.  They are offering the lowest rates of any line.  I don’t know it it is because they have too many ships or that their competitors came on stronger than they expected.  They are committed now, they will either have to continue to lower prices to fill ships.  Perhaps their hope was to flood the market in order to capture the market, I don’t think that is working out for them - yet.  If they go into the Caribbean in the summer they can expect to have to even offer cheaper fares in an even more competitive market = fraught with the other problems of heat and weather. 
 

There may be a market for a transit cruise from Boston but I think the better programs would be to develop the Canadian Maritimes market and perhaps add more transits to Northern Europe.  I do like the Azores idea.  That could be a market from both Boston and Europe.  If I recall my tour guide history, there are more people of Azores descent in New England than there are in Azores 

A minor correction. Most one-way 2023 cruises in Alaska now start at $199 for Princess. Similar itineraries for HAL start at $329. Princess is currently offering the lowest rates.

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, friendswithdave said:

A minor correction. Most one-way 2023 cruises in Alaska now start at $199 for Princess. Similar itineraries for HAL start at $329. Princess is currently offering the lowest rates.

Thanks for the update.  The push in Alaska was done together with Princess so it makes sense they are now also heavily discounting. 

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, friendswithdave said:

A minor correction. Most one-way 2023 cruises in Alaska now start at $199 for Princess. Similar itineraries for HAL start at $329. Princess is currently offering the lowest rates.

 

These are crazy prices. Don't complain about quality. We are seeing these prices because pax growth is lower than expected, and new ships are being built. Wait till MSC arrive in the West Coast.