Cruising doing well.

[daiB]

For those who think P&O and other lines are not doing well. This is from an article in Cruise Industry News,

 

“On the European front, occupancy came in better than anticipated for Costa and AIDA, with both brands hitting 119 percent occupancy in August. Not to be outdone, P&O Cruises achieved its highest occupancy in over a decade,” said Josh Weinstein, president and CEO, on the company’s third quarter earnings call.

 

Overall Carnival Corps had 109% occupancy for the 3rd quarter.

Edited October 1, 2023 by daiB

[Harry Peterson]

The stock market seems not to agree, though. Maybe because occupancy is one thing, and prices/profitability/debt servicing another.

[molecrochip]

Just now, Harry Peterson said:

The stock market seems not to agree, though. Maybe because occupancy is one thing, and prices/profitability/debt servicing another.

The stock market didn’t agree the day that Q2 results were released. But over the following two weeks the shares rallied significantly.

[molecrochip]

There was practically no bad news in the numbers put out on Friday, and those numbers beat expectations.

 

More revenue, more profit, more debt paid down. Bookings for 2023 setting records, bookings for 2024 setting even bigger records.

 

This should now give the company confidence that will lead to subtle price rises over the next couple of years thereby making even bigger records.

[Selbourne]

I have no knowledge, or view, on whether things are rosy at P&O or not, but it would be a miracle (and a major shock) if their occupancy levels weren’t massively up. They have significantly more capacity now with the two mega ships and last year consumer confidence for cruising still hadn’t fully recovered. 
 

As Harry rightly says, there are far more important (and meaningful) metrics to assess their success by. As with all press comment from all businesses, there’s the PR spin and then there’s the accounts. One is easier to read and is always positive, and the other reveals the reality. 

[david63]

Forgive me for asking a silly question but how can occupancy be over 100%? Are passengers sleeping in lifeboats?

[yorkshirephil]

7 minutes ago, david63 said:

Forgive me for asking a silly question but how can occupancy be over 100%? Are passengers sleeping in lifeboats?

I would guess that when the ship quotes occupancy it is referring to cabins with two people in whereas many cabins can serve 3/4 people especially when families are cruising. 

[Winifred 22]

33 minutes ago, yorkshirephil said:

I would guess that when the ship quotes occupancy it is referring to cabins with two people in whereas many cabins can serve 3/4 people especially when families are cruising. 

That’s my understanding anything over 100% is attributable to the number of  berths in the 3&4 berth cabins being occupied. 

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, david63 said:

Forgive me for asking a silly question but how can occupancy be over 100%? Are passengers sleeping in lifeboats?

Because its measured against lower berth capacity.

[david63]

53 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Because its measured against lower berth capacity.

In other words a meaningless statistic!

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, david63 said:

In other words a meaningless statistic!

If you say so, but the cruise industry have a different opinion.

[majortom10]

More important factor is not about occupancy but at what prices are you selling those cruises to get that occupancy. No good sailing at 100% occupancy if you have to reduce prices to a lower level to achieve it. Currently advertising 14nt cruise on Arvia in April at under £700, that cannot be a sustainable level of pricing and even more worrying that the cruise is 6 months away.

Edited October 1, 2023 by majortom10

[Interestedcruisefan]

34 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

More important factor is not about occupancy but at what prices are you selling those cruises to get that occupancy. No good sailing at 100% occupancy if you have to reduce prices to a lower level to achieve it. Currently advertising 14nt cruise on Arvia in April at under £700, that cannot be a sustainable level of pricing and even more worrying that the cruise is 6 months away.

Don't forget the headline prices are without OBC

 

So there's decent spend to add to that start figure 

 

And the majority don't pay the headline prices 

 

And people who cruise for the first time with P and O also have the  potential to become long term cruisers with P and O

 

Those headline prices are attracting younger cruisers from land based holidays to try cruising for the first time and they will be trying  cruising for the first time with P and O

 

First time cruisers won't be choosing Celebrity and. Princess etc

 

P and O have a real opportunity to build a whole new demographic of cruisers right now at a time when holidays are more expensive than ever

 

 

[doog442]

I know plenty of people who are trying a cruise for the first time, it does seem to be taking off and yes P&O is the cruise line of choice. 

 

 

 

[majortom10]

29 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Don't forget the headline prices are without OBC

 

So there's decent spend to add to that start figure 

 

And the majority don't pay the headline prices 

 

And people who cruise for the first time with P and O also have the  potential to become long term cruisers with P and O

 

Those headline prices are attracting younger cruisers from land based holidays to try cruising for the first time and they will be trying  cruising for the first time with P and O

 

First time cruisers won't be choosing Celebrity and. Princess etc

 

P and O have a real opportunity to build a whole new demographic of cruisers right now at a time when holidays are more expensive than ever

 

 

That is fine if P&O want to go down the road of people having no interest but "camping out" by the pool all day long making full use of the drinks package. I don't think many of those on Arvia recently cared about balcony or higher grades just cheapest cabin possible and a drinks package. Don't think they will be booking speciality restaurants or excursions and paying no extra than drinks package. Some were there every time we walked through I was beginning to think they were sleeping there on sunbeds. If that is the way P&O is going then I am afraid after cruising on all their ships in last 23yrs then I am afraid my days like many regulars are numbered on P&O as it is not my idea of cruising.

[Interestedcruisefan]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

That is fine if P&O want to go down the road of people having no interest but "camping out" by the pool all day long making full use of the drinks package. I don't think many of those on Arvia recently cared about balcony or higher grades just cheapest cabin possible and a drinks package. Don't think they will be booking speciality restaurants or excursions and paying no extra than drinks package. Some were there every time we walked through I was beginning to think they were sleeping there on sunbeds. If that is the way P&O is going then I am afraid after cruising on all their ships in last 23yrs then I am afraid my days like many regulars are numbered on P&O as it is not my idea of cruising.

Which is fair enough. So either smaller P and O and/or more expensive cruises on other lines is how you choose to continue your way of cruising. You have plenty of options to still choose from

 

But I'm certain right now with Arvia and Iona P and O will be winning BY FAR the largest share of new cruisers in the UK (many of whom will need serious reason to pay significantly more money to then decide to cruise with anyone else)

 

Princess and Celebrity have problems in that respect 

 

One thing to consider is we personally choose the cheapest cabins but I would imagine spend amongst the highest 20 per cent on the ship on food upgrades gym classes Wi-Fi and drinks when on board which we pay in cash not OBC

 

I read a lot on here about more experienced cruisers who take alcohol on board to drink on their balconies?

 

You can't drink alcohol on balconies you dont have etc 

 

Also the drinks package won't appeal to people like us who want value. They will only appeal to serious drinkers capable of serious drinking 14 nights in a row

 

Younger people nowadays go out far less often a week drinking than in the old days

 

And not everybody who wants a great value holiday is looking for 15 alcoholic drinks a day for 14 days in a row either

 

I wouldn't assume it's new young cruisers who are the biggest consumers of the drinks packages tbh. 

 

Some will but I would hazard a guess that most wont

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Interestedcruisefan

[Interestedcruisefan]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

That is fine if P&O want to go down the road of people having no interest but "camping out" by the pool all day long making full use of the drinks package. I don't think many of those on Arvia recently cared about balcony or higher grades just cheapest cabin possible and a drinks package. Don't think they will be booking speciality restaurants or excursions and paying no extra than drinks package. Some were there every time we walked through I was beginning to think they were sleeping there on sunbeds. If that is the way P&O is going then I am afraid after cruising on all their ships in last 23yrs then I am afraid my days like many regulars are numbered on P&O as it is not my idea of cruising.

Epicurean and Limelight and Sindhu were full throughout my cruises on Arvia and Iona and these venues are much bigger than on the smaller P and O ships

 

 

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

That is fine if P&O want to go down the road of people having no interest but "camping out" by the pool all day long making full use of the drinks package. I don't think many of those on Arvia recently cared about balcony or higher grades just cheapest cabin possible and a drinks package. Don't think they will be booking speciality restaurants or excursions and paying no extra than drinks package. Some were there every time we walked through I was beginning to think they were sleeping there on sunbeds. If that is the way P&O is going then I am afraid after cruising on all their ships in last 23yrs then I am afraid my days like many regulars are numbered on P&O as it is not my idea of cruising.

There are 5200 plus people on both Arvia and Iona, the Skydome can probably accmodate no more than 100 people around the pool area with the number of loungers available in anything like comfort.. So the remaining 5100 plus are not sitting around there just drinking.

[majortom10]

44 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Which is fair enough. So either smaller P and O and/or more expensive cruises on other lines is how you choose to continue your way of cruising. You have plenty of options to still choose from

 

But I'm certain right now with Arvia and Iona P and O will be winning BY FAR the largest share of new cruisers in the UK (many of whom will need serious reason to pay significantly more money to then decide to cruise with anyone else)

 

Princess and Celebrity have problems in that respect 

 

One thing to consider is we personally choose the cheapest cabins but I would imagine spend amongst the highest 20 per cent on the ship on food upgrades gym classes Wi-Fi and drinks when on board which we pay in cash not OBC

 

I read a lot on here about more experienced cruisers who take alcohol on board to drink on their balconies?

 

You can't drink alcohol on balconies you dont have etc 

 

Also the drinks package won't appeal to people like us who want value. They will only appeal to serious drinkers capable of serious drinking 14 nights in a row

 

Younger people nowadays go out far less often a week drinking than in the old days

 

And not everybody who wants a great value holiday is looking for 15 alcoholic drinks a day for 14 days in a row either

 

I wouldn't assume it's new young cruisers who are the biggest consumers of the drinks packages tbh. 

 

Some will but I would hazard a guess that most wont

 

 

But the younger people that P&O are seeming to attract to Arvia & Iona are the ones that want 15 drinks a day on the alcohol package and have no interest in any other part of the ship except Skydome area. With reference to your thoughts on Princess you may be correct with regards to British cruiser's on ships based during summer in UK. A lot of disgruntled P&Oers are migrating to Princess. Also don't forget Princess is a very small selection of their ships where the majority based in Med, Alaska and the Far East are very popular with Americans as that is Princess main market.

 

 

 

[majortom10]

48 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Epicurean and Limelight and Sindhu were full throughout my cruises on Arvia and Iona and these venues are much bigger than on the smaller P and O ships

 

 

But a very small number of 5000-6000 onboard needed to fill those restaurants.

[terrierjohn]

5 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

But a very small number of 5000-6000 onboard needed to fill those restaurants.

I doubt that any cruise line offers a speciality restaurant that is not a viable profit centre. They may be small but they do create significant revenue, with only a marginal increase in food and labour costs.

[daiB]

12 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

The stock market seems not to agree, though. Maybe because occupancy is one thing, and prices/profitability/debt servicing another.

Another report says Carnival had a profit of 1.2B over the above quarter, much better than expected.

[daiB]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

But the younger people that P&O are seeming to attract to Arvia & Iona are the ones that want 15 drinks a day on the alcohol package and have no interest in any other part of the ship except Skydome area. With reference to your thoughts on Princess you may be correct with regards to British cruiser's on ships based during summer in UK. A lot of disgruntled P&Oers are migrating to Princess. Also don't forget Princess is a very small selection of their ships where the majority based in Med, Alaska and the Far East are very popular with Americans as that is Princess main market.

 

 

 

Odd as P&O’s bookings are up again for next year on top of the best quarter for over 10 years.

[Interestedcruisefan]

10 hours ago, majortom10 said:

But a very small number of 5000-6000 onboard needed to fill those restaurants.

But you can't  question are there enough passengers spending on speciality upgrades on the cheaper and larger ships when bigger speciality venues on these ships are full from start to finish on the cruises?

 

(Which is what  I was replying to Major Tom?)

 

The spend is clearly happening to the max in these venues.

 

They also have much bigger limelight clubs operating every single night on the big ships and full every night. The same acts doing almost a full week each and sold out for a full week. 

 

Despite 5000 guests - that's still a big percentage of the cruise paying extra for limelight when you add up the numbers at the end of a week?

 

The newer and younger cruise demographic may actually be more inclined to spend money once on board than you imagine

 

It's all new and fresh and exciting to them

 

And the abundance of restaurants and extra activities you can spend extra money on seems to suggest that's the case

 

The escape room they have on Arvia is pretty much sold out from start to finish on the cruises from what I've seen. And that's not a cheap extra activity to enjoy either 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Interestedcruisefan

[9265359]

10 hours ago, majortom10 said:

But the younger people that P&O are seeming to attract to Arvia & Iona are the ones that want 15 drinks a day on the alcohol package and have no interest in any other part of the ship except Skydome area. 

 

Even if a couple on a drinks package were drinking 15 drinks each a day every day, P&O would still be making £1,400 profit from them on a 14 night cruise.