Black Friday/ Travel Tuesday

[Crazy planning mom]

I am looking to fly from Fort Lauderdale back to New York after a cruise in early March.  The fares right now seem quite high

and not as many flights as in the past.  Note- I have had 2 bad experiences in Spirit and avoid them.

Do you think fare will go down during Balck Friday or Travel Tuesday?  Kayak is saying not to wait but to buy my tickets.ss

[CruiserBruce]

The cheapest fares have already been sold. There is absolutely no way to tell what the airfares will. Kayak is giving you good advice. March is peak season for Ft Lauderdale...can't see fares dropping.

[Zach1213]

There's absolutely no motivation for airlines to cut many deals these days. Demand is still extremely high, and fares are justifiably high. I can't imagine them going down much if any just a few months out, and even less of a chance of there being a big sale. 

 

Fare may "seem quite high", but that's just today's air travel reality. 

[6rugrats]

No, I don't think fares will go down because there is no reason for them to go down.  Easter is 03/31/24 and spring break will start right after President's day and go through Easter week.  Many people want to go to Florida at that time.  High demand = High price.  

Today I had to rebook at least eight people who missed their flights (why don't people ever check for gate changes, or prioritize getting to the gate before stopping at Starbucks?), and I couldn't get them where they wanted to go today.  Flights are really full.  I would not wait to purchase and I certainly would not consider Spirit ever for time sensitive travel.

As an aside, today is the first time I have ever heard the phrase, "Travel Tuesday."  The airline I work for does not have sales on either one of these days.

Edited November 17, 2023 by 6rugrats

[Crazy planning mom]

Thank you all for your feedback.  I just booked my flight.  Due to the flight times and prices, I decided to stay an extra day in Florida after my cruise.  I have a small apartment there.

[FlyerTalker]

Further to questions about waiting for "sales".

 

This isn't like where you walk into Wal-Mart and all the sale TVs are lined up.  Airline "sales" are rarely across-the-board price reductions.  When done, they are almost always targeted to try to boost demand for flights and dates where current ticketing is low.  Look for the fine print, where it says that this only applies to specific flights and dates, and where blackout periods are noted.

 

If a route is already showing strong demand, and prices are resultingly high, why should an airline want to cut their profit margin by lowering the price?

 

And this thinking applies to those cruiselines that do BF "sales".  You won't find discounts on all sailings or dates, but rather for those where they want to goose demand.

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

Yes, I booked my cruise far out.  The travel experts I have seen on TV and online say to book airfare  a couple months out but that never works for me.

[FlyerTalker]

5 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Yes, I booked my cruise far out.  The travel experts I have seen on TV and online say to book airfare  a couple months out but that never works for me.

 

IMHO, the "experts" have little real understanding of the underlying systems.  I can't tell you the number of times I have found Peter Greenberg (who is basically a media personality and producer) absolutely 180 degrees WRONG about what he's pontificating.  And he's not the only one.

 

They like giving neat, pat answers delivered in an air of authority.  But there are few neat pat answers when it comes to travel, especially air pricing.  It is a continuously dynamic system, with very sophisticated algorithms being used by the airlines.

 

It's a bit late for you, but let's give this suggestion for the future and for others.  By the time you book your cruise, you should already be researching air pricing for your trip.  Don't wait for "a couple months out" to start your process.  Note trends and prices - note variance for dates a day or two off from "cruise day", when demand is strongest.  And keep up the research.  Plus, aside from the most restrictive "basic economy" tickets, most tickets from the major carriers can be changed if pricing goes down, with the difference refunded in the form of a travel credit.  So you can buy a ticket for $300, and if the price drops to $250, you can pocket the difference as a credit.

 

And my biggest suggestion for all:  Remember that hope is not a strategy.

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

26 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

IMHO, the "experts" have little real understanding of the underlying systems.  I can't tell you the number of times I have found Peter Greenberg (who is basically a media personality and producer) absolutely 180 degrees WRONG about what he's pontificating.  And he's not the only one.

 

They like giving neat, pat answers delivered in an air of authority.  But there are few neat pat answers when it comes to travel, especially air pricing.  It is a continuously dynamic system, with very sophisticated algorithms being used by the airlines.

 

It's a bit late for you, but let's give this suggestion for the future and for others.  By the time you book your cruise, you should already be researching air pricing for your trip.  Don't wait for "a couple months out" to start your process.  Note trends and prices - note variance for dates a day or two off from "cruise day", when demand is strongest.  And keep up the research.  Plus, aside from the most restrictive "basic economy" tickets, most tickets from the major carriers can be changed if pricing goes down, with the difference refunded in the form of a travel credit.  So you can buy a ticket for $300, and if the price drops to $250, you can pocket the difference as a credit.

 

And my biggest suggestion for all:  Remember that hope is not a strategy.

 

 

I actually did start looking a couple months ago and should have pulled the trigger then.  I did purchase my ticket going down a while ago because we are flying down during President's week.  Good advice regarding re-booking for a credit if the prices do go down.  I actually was able to do that for a non-cruise trip earlier this year.

[ericosmith]

I'm curious if my thinking is really valid... When I research flights, I look at seat availability on the airline website before booking (while at least some of them show this).  If the flight is lightly booked I may wait a bit.  If however there are quite a few sold seats I won't wait.  Yes, I know that availability doesn't show all of the bookings but at least it seems like a partial guide to where pricing may go.

[FlyerTalker]

3 hours ago, ericosmith said:

I'm curious if my thinking is really valid... When I research flights, I look at seat availability on the airline website before booking (while at least some of them show this).  If the flight is lightly booked I may wait a bit.  If however there are quite a few sold seats I won't wait.  Yes, I know that availability doesn't show all of the bookings but at least it seems like a partial guide to where pricing may go.

 

It isn't.

 

First off, seat maps are a very inaccurate guide to the actual inventory situation on an aircraft.  Second is that inventory management is not just a matter of filling seats.  It's about maximizing revenue - a flight can easily be more profitable at 70% capacity rather than 100%.  Third, airlines have tons of historic data with which they can very accurately predict how and when seats will be sold.  Trying to out think the yield management algorithms is a fools errand.

 

If you want to start to know actual inventories available for sale (or at least part of the number), buy a subscription to Expert Flyer, where you will be able to see the sales inventory (up to 9) for the various fare buckets.

 

 

[Zach1213]

On 11/17/2023 at 4:19 PM, Crazy planning mom said:

Yes, I booked my cruise far out.  The travel experts I have seen on TV and online say to book airfare  a couple months out but that never works for me.

Experts are there to get clicks and views, nothing else. There's little "punishment" if they are wrong. And they usually are. I guarantee the regulars on this travel fly more often than any of those "experts" and know more about how stuff really works. 

[erby2283]

As many stated, you just never really know.  I am cruising in May out of Miami and in Sept out of Rome.  I stalk prices every day.  I was able to get non-stop to Rome soon after tickets were released for $913 round-trip on American Airlines.

 

However, I am still waiting to purchase my round-trip to Miami bc non-stop has been steadily over over $500+ (to both FLL and MIA) - except for Spirit - which like you, I wouldn't take.  I also have the option of taking Allegiant but they don't fly back to CLT the day my cruise gets back in town so the added expense of a hotel for the night would negate any airline savings.  I still have time and would be willing to book a one-stop via Orlando if I have to in order to save some money but I'd prefer not to.  Still plenty of time to decide.....

[Zach1213]

17 minutes ago, erby2283 said:

except for Spirit - which like you, I wouldn't take.  I also have the option of taking Allegiant but they don't fly back to CLT the day my cruise gets back in town so the added expense of a hotel for the night would negate any airline savings. 

If you're not going to take Spirit (which I understand), definitely don't take Allegiant. You'd be in the same situation in both if something happens - airlines with limited flights and flexibility that are likely to cause serious problems if you are delayed or cancelled.