Carnival Corporation Orders Three Additional Ships for Carnival Cruise Line, Introducing a New Class of Ships

[Retired-N-Happy]

4 hours ago, Joebucks said:

Who in the world cares who is first to do something? I swear, people are obsessed with everything that doesn't matter. All I care is the experience and the value I'm getting. I could care less if you are 1st or 20th to do it.

The chart that Tom posted on post #317 says it all.  Royal's decision to come out with the Oasis Class back in 2009 and their subsequent decisions has allowed them to come out on the back side of the shutdown in a much better position financially than Carnival.

As a stockholder since a few years before the shutdown, I'm still down a substantial bit of money.  Luckily the 100 and 250 OBC amounts have softened the blow a bit, but the numbers don't lie.  

Royal made the right decision regarding the Oasis Class coming out in 2009 and maybe if Carnival didn't delay their version until 20 years later, then maybe their financials would be in better shape even with the recent uptick in sales.

[Fairsky84]

1 hour ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

My guess is since they are the new kid on the block they have low pricing to get people on their ships. Eventually I would guess that the prices will rise and then we will see who REALLY loves their product or if they love their prices. 

Remember, MSC Cruises is part of one of the largest shipping companies in the world (Mediterranean Shipping Co.) and is privately owned by the Aponte family. MSC had revenues of nearly $90 billion (2022). Carnival Corp, by comparison, made $21 billion (2023) and Royal Caribbean made $14 billion (2023). They are a fraction of the size of MSC.

That means the cruise division of MSC is essentially a vanity project of the Aponte family and doesn't need to make any money. They can continue to build huge ships, price their cruises low, and grow their market share indefinitely just to put pressure on CCL, RCL, and NCL. From what I've seen, MSC Cruises just needs to improve its service and onboard product in order to become a real threat. 

My guess is that Carnival is not building this new class of 230,000 ton ships to answer the threat from Royal Caribbean's Icon and Oasis-class ships, but to answer the low-cost threat from MSC and their new World-class fleet of ships coming to Miami. I don't know how many people are leaving Carnival to pay 2x, 3x, or 4x as much for a cruise on Icon, but a bunch may abandon Carnival to pay the same or less to sail on MSC World America. 

Edited August 1 by Fairsky84

[Illbcruzn4life]

9 minutes ago, Fairsky84 said:

Remember, MSC Cruises is part of one of the largest shipping companies in the world (Mediterranean Shipping Co.) and is privately owned by the Aponte family. MSC had revenues of nearly $90 billion (2022). Carnival Corp, by comparison, made $21 billion (2023) and Royal Caribbean made $14 billion (2023). They are a fraction of the size of MSC.

That means the cruise division of MSC is essentially a vanity project of the Aponte family and doesn't need to make any money. They can continue to build huge ships, price their cruises low, and grow their market share indefinitely just to put pressure on CCL, RCL, and NCL. From what I've seen, MSC Cruises just needs to improve its service and onboard product in order to become a real threat. 

My guess is that Carnival is not building this new class of 230,000 ton ships to answer the threat from Royal Caribbean's Icon and Oasis-class ships, but to answer the low-cost threat from MSC and their new World-class fleet of ships coming to Miami. I don't know how many people are leaving Carnival to pay 2x, 3x, or 4x as much for a cruise on Icon, but a bunch may abandon Carnival to pay the same or less to sail on MSC World America. 

they did say on our Seashore cruise that they were #1 in Europe, how true I don't know and they were trying to be #1 in the U.S. and would have 8 or 9 ships in the U.S. in 2 years.

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

They choose to price low to beat the competitors. They could charge a lot more if they wanted but that's not their business model.

Like I was saying. 🙂 I don't doubt it is their tactical business plan, but do doubt it is their strategic business plan.

[BlerkOne]

24 minutes ago, Fairsky84 said:

My guess is that Carnival is not building this new class of 230,000 ton ships to answer the threat from Royal Caribbean's Icon and Oasis-class ships, but to answer the low-cost threat from MSC and their new World-class fleet of ships coming to Miami. I don't know how many people are leaving Carnival to pay 2x, 3x, or 4x as much for a cruise on Icon, but a bunch may abandon Carnival to pay the same or less to sail on MSC World America. 

My guess is Carnival is building the ships because they can now be built at a cost per lower berth that is acceptable to Carnival. When Royal stated building Gigantasaurus of the Seas type ships, Carnival chose to keep building smaller ships at a much lower price per lower berth than Royal was paying.

[Joebucks]

1 hour ago, Fairsky84 said:

My guess is that Carnival is not building this new class of 230,000 ton ships to answer the threat from Royal Caribbean's Icon and Oasis-class ships, but to answer the low-cost threat from MSC and their new World-class fleet of ships coming to Miami. I don't know how many people are leaving Carnival to pay 2x, 3x, or 4x as much for a cruise on Icon, but a bunch may abandon Carnival to pay the same or less to sail on MSC World America. 

 

As we saw with COVID, a lot can change, quickly. What we thought we knew, changed overnight. There's a lot of economic indicators out there that suggest the money gravy train is tightening up. It will be real interesting to see what happens.

[staceyglow]

6 hours ago, Joebucks said:

Who in the world cares who is first to do something? I swear, people are obsessed with everything that doesn't matter. All I care is the experience and the value I'm getting. I could care less if you are 1st or 20th to do it.

Sometimes it is better not to be the first one to do something.

 

Let someone else take the risk, and then hang back and learn from any mistakes they made.

[Retired-N-Happy]

14 minutes ago, staceyglow said:

Sometimes it is better not to be the first one to do something.

 

Let someone else take the risk, and then hang back and learn from any mistakes they made.

Royal hasn't made too many mistakes when you look at how their financials are these days compared to Carnival.

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

My guess is Carnival is building the ships because they can now be built at a cost per lower berth that is acceptable to Carnival. When Royal stated building Gigantasaurus of the Seas type ships, Carnival chose to keep building smaller ships at a much lower price per lower berth than Royal was paying.

they figured out a way to cram 8000 people into the ship.

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

As we saw with COVID, a lot can change, quickly. What we thought we knew, changed overnight. There's a lot of economic indicators out there that suggest the money gravy train is tightening up. It will be real interesting to see what happens.

Yes the whole cruise industry will be hurting.

[BlerkOne]

People underwater on CCL stock seem to envy RCL stock. I sold my CCL stock long before the bottom and repurchased at $8. 

 

Once again I have more than recouped my investment in shareholder OBC. I would probably still be trying to on RCL. 

 

I don't know why anyone would think any cruise line stock was investment grade.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

12 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

...

 

I don't know why anyone would think any cruise line stock was investment grade.

 

To a certain degree, some of my holdings are things we like/buy/do. I limit exposure accordingly - but a couple of them have done quite well (CCL is not one of those). 

 

After seeing how much we were spending at CHEWY, I picked up some shares in early May... wowza !

 

As to the market as a whole, I'll try and just look away (today)  ... !!

 

Tom

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

To a certain degree, some of my holdings are things we like/buy/do. I limit exposure accordingly - but a couple of them have done quite well (CCL is not one of those). 

 

After seeing how much we were spending at CHEWY, I picked up some shares in early May... wowza !

 

As to the market as a whole, I'll try and just look away (today)  ... !!

 

Tom

Buying stock in companies with products you use is not a bad strategy. You might beat most analysts. I wish I had bought  Chewy - today might be the day.

 

Today is not a good day for Royal even with oil down.

[kdr69]

On 8/1/2024 at 6:02 PM, BlerkOne said:

People underwater on CCL stock seem to envy RCL stock. I sold my CCL stock long before the bottom and repurchased at $8. 

 

Once again I have more than recouped my investment in shareholder OBC. I would probably still be trying to on RCL. 

 

I don't know why anyone would think any cruise line stock was investment grade.

I dont think its investment grade im just wondering whats driving it down. Although the entire market is in a spiral at the moment so who knows.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

3 hours ago, kdr69 said:

I dont think its investment grade im just wondering whats driving it down. Although the entire market is in a spiral at the moment so who knows.

 

I think, without fear, there probably wouldn't be much of a stock market.

[jimbo5544]

9 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I think, without fear, there probably wouldn't be much of a stock market.

.... and that would take all the fun out of it

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, kdr69 said:

I dont think its investment grade im just wondering whats driving it down. Although the entire market is in a spiral at the moment so who knows.

 

1 hour ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I think, without fear, there probably wouldn't be much of a stock market.

 

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

.... and that would take all the fun out of it

 

The markets have always been a gamble, but without a free room.

 

At the moment, a double whammy of both real and irrational fear factors. Wars, threat of expansion, economies - did the Fed wait too long (varies by day), an election year, household debt levels... and, of course, programmed trading for good measure. I can't wait until AI takes over and really messes with it.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

and don't even get me started on sunspot activity

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

 

 

The markets have always been a gamble, but without a free room.

 

At the moment, a double whammy of both real and irrational fear factors. Wars, threat of expansion, economies - did the Fed wait too long (varies by day), an election year, household debt levels... and, of course, programmed trading for good measure. I can't wait until AI takes over and really messes with it.

 

 

Truth (especially the free room part, lol)

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

Truth (especially the free room part, lol)

wait.....what about the free lunch.....there still is a free lunch right?

[jimbo5544]

or "there is no such thing as a free lunch"?

[Retired-N-Happy]

34 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

or "there is no such thing as a free lunch"?

I could have sworn they gave one to those who reached Diamond status, but then again I guess they paid for it in the long run over 200+ nights 

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, Retired-N-Happy said:

I could have sworn they gave one to those who reached Diamond status, but then again I guess they paid for it in the long run over 200+ nights 

Bingo

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Retired-N-Happy said:

I could have sworn they gave one to those who reached Diamond status, but then again I guess they paid for it in the long run over 200+ nights 

Not guaranteed, and not necessarily a lunch. It is a Captain's Special Invitation. Could be anything or nothing.

[jimbo5544]

On 8/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, Retired-N-Happy said:

The chart that Tom posted on post #317 says it all.  Royal's decision to come out with the Oasis Class back in 2009 and their subsequent decisions has allowed them to come out on the back side of the shutdown in a much better position financially than Carnival.

As a stockholder since a few years before the shutdown, I'm still down a substantial bit of money.  Luckily the 100 and 250 OBC amounts have softened the blow a bit, but the numbers don't lie.  

Royal made the right decision regarding the Oasis Class coming out in 2009 and maybe if Carnival didn't delay their version until 20 years later, then maybe their financials would be in better shape even with the recent uptick in sales.

THEY did not delay, but you are on a roll, go for it, facts as so mundane.  If RCCL made the right decision, why does the free world think that ICON. is the ugliest beast on the seas (it takes a lot to be uglier than Epic....(kind of epic of them?).  Maybe they should have delayed that....😏

Edited August 4 by jimbo5544