Additional 150k ton newbuilds to be ordered for Carnival.

[DutchCruiseFan]

According to Shipping Italy, the Italian shipyard Fincantieri is in negotiations with Carnival Corporation for the construction of a new class of ships for three of its brands: Aida Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, and potentially at a later stage, Costa Cruises. The proposed order includes six new class ships, with an option for two additional ships, each of at least 150,000 gross tonnage, with deliveries expected from 2029. These ships would be built by the Fincantieri shipyards in Genoa Sestri Ponente and/or Marghera. The value of this order is estimated to be around 8 billion euros for the first six ships. Given SHIPPING ITALY’s reliable insider sources, the likelihood of this order being finalized is relatively high.

 

https://crew-center.com/carnival-corporation-negotiations-6-new-cruise-ships-aida-carnival-and-costa-brands

[1025cruise]

Yes, this has been discussed on other threads.

[DutchCruiseFan]

13 minutes ago, 1025cruise said:

Yes, this has been discussed on other threads.

I believe it has not. This news broke 4 hours ago. You might be confused with the 230k tonnes newbuilds announced by Carnival some weeks ago.

This is about an order of six 150k tonnes ships out of which two will be heading to Carnival.

[tidecat]

18 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

I believe it has not. This news broke 4 hours ago. You might be confused with the 230k tonnes newbuilds announced by Carnival some weeks ago.

This is about an order of six 150k tonnes ships out of which two will be heading to Carnival.

This seems to be primarily for AIDA given the Shipping Italy report. Interesting that Carnival would take 2 ships at this size after ordering 3 larger ships. Unless if these are going to be built as neoPanamax, in which case they can service Alaska, there is not much incentive to back off the mega ship trend.

[DutchCruiseFan]

5 minutes ago, tidecat said:

This seems to be primarily for AIDA given the Shipping Italy report. Interesting that Carnival would take 2 ships at this size after ordering 3 larger ships. Unless if these are going to be built as neoPanamax, in which case they can service Alaska, there is not much incentive to back off the mega ship trend.

Interesting indeed. It seems like the expectation is 2 for AIDA, 2 for Carnival and 2 for Costa.

The Costa order would surprise me a bit. I expected them to be absorbed by Carnival in the future.

 

Feels like we can expect this class of ships for more companies if succesful. Thinking of P&O and Princess. 150k is a good size. The article also mentions an option for two more.

Edited August 8 by DutchCruiseFan

[787cruiser]

4 minutes ago, tidecat said:

This seems to be primarily for AIDA given the Shipping Italy report. Interesting that Carnival would take 2 ships at this size after ordering 3 larger ships. Unless if these are going to be built as neoPanamax, in which case they can service Alaska, there is not much incentive to back off the mega ship trend.

 I don't think the order is primarily for 1 brand. What Carnival Corp is doing again is building a ship that is capable across several of its brands. The mega ships just aren't. I don't think is surprising at all that CCL will be getting some of these smaller new builds. CLL has quite a few ships that will be needing retirement going into the early 2030s. All of these can't be replaced by mega ships.

[tidecat]

5 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

The Costa order would surprise me a bit. I expected them to be absorbed by Carnival in the future.

That was never a reasonable expectation. The transfers to Carnival happened primarily because China was closed. Costa expanded greatly during the 2010s, and even with the transfers out, their European capacity is still well ahead of where it was pre-shutdown. The European market has made a full recovery, even in spite of Russia's shenanigans.

[787cruiser]

7 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

The Costa order would surprise me a bit. I expected them to be absorbed by Carnival in the future.

Im not sure why people keep saying this, I can't see it happening. Costa serves a completely different market in Europe. Costa still works. It was only down sized because it had to pull out of China.

10 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Feels like we can expect this class of ships for more companies if succesful. Thinking of P&O and Princess. 150k is a good size. The article also mentions an option for two more.

I agree with this. I would expect the 2 options to be taken up and further orders in the years ahead.

[CruiseAdict218]

They order could also change if they feel the initial say first two were too small, kind of what NCL did with the Prima Class. 
 

Think these would be a good stepping stone for those who don’t want a big ship but still gives something modern to their aging ships. 
 

I also don’t expect Costa to be absorbed or lose any other vessels other than many Fortuna in the future. They seemed to have bounced back nicely but I wouldn’t expect Carnival to return the two Vistas either. Think we would have heard about it by now, any the overall Corp is shedding the one P&O brand. 

[DutchCruiseFan]

42 minutes ago, tidecat said:

That was never a reasonable expectation. The transfers to Carnival happened primarily because China was closed. Costa expanded greatly during the 2010s, and even with the transfers out, their European capacity is still well ahead of where it was pre-shutdown. The European market has made a full recovery, even in spite of Russia's shenanigans.

 

38 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

Im not sure why people keep saying this, I can't see it happening. Costa serves a completely different market in Europe. Costa still works. It was only down sized because it had to pull out of China.

You both might be very right. I am not an expert on Costa but I know they are usually genuinely rated quite bad. Carnival Corporation doesn't post results per company so it's usually difficult to know how they're doing, but Carnival's CEO said that they would only reward good performing companies with newbuilds, so with that logic they must be doing something well. 

 

It will be interesting to see Carnival's fleet in 6/7 years. They have seven newbuilds on the way now and I wonder if they will start phasing out the Destiny class aswell as the Fantasy class.

[CruiseAdict218]

4 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

will be interesting to see Carnival's fleet in 6/7 years. They have seven newbuilds on the way now and I wonder if they will start phasing out the Destiny class aswell as the Fantasy class

Elation, Paradise and Sunshine definitely have their days numbers by early 2030s, Sunrise and Radiance could last a tad longer but not much 

[787cruiser]

13 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Elation, Paradise and Sunshine definitely have their days numbers by early 2030s, Sunrise and Radiance could last a tad longer but not much 

I bet all 3 of those will be gone before the next decade rolls around. Sunrise and radiance in the very early 30s

[BlerkOne]

I guess I'll bet on the over.

[ProgRockCruiser]

2 hours ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

I am not an expert on Costa but I know they are usually genuinely rated quite bad.

Carnival Cruise Lines also seems to be denigrated by many, yet continues to sell cabins (and sell out capacity).  So Costa is just truly a European Carnival - it fills a niche.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, 787cruiser said:

I bet all 3 of those will be gone before the next decade rolls around. Sunrise and radiance in the very early 30s

Based on just the confirmed slate of new builds:

 

2027 Excel 4 in, Sunshine (1996) out

2028 Excel 5 in, Elation (1998) out

2029 XXL 1 in, Paradise (1998) out 

2031 XXL 2 in, Sunrise (1999) out

2033 XXL 3 in, Radiance (2000) Out

 

If the new Fincantieri order happens that may alter the order slightly, and we are probably looking at some retirements from the Spirit and/or Conquest classes.

[DutchCruiseFan]

8 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Based on just the confirmed slate of new builds:

 

2027 Excel 4 in, Sunshine (1996) out

2028 Excel 5 in, Elation (1998) out

2029 XXL 1 in, Paradise (1998) out 

2031 XXL 2 in, Sunrise (1999) out

2033 XXL 3 in, Radiance (2000) Out

 

If the new Fincantieri order happens that may alter the order slightly, and we are probably looking at some retirements from the Spirit and/or Conquest classes.

Shouldn't we expect 2026-2027 sailings to be released starting this month? Might give us a clue. I can't really see Sunshine go before Elation and Paradise and I do think Jacksonville will be one of the first ports to be cut, unfortunately for them Port Canaveral is just relatively close.

Of course all just speculation.

Edited August 8 by DutchCruiseFan

[tidecat]

40 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Shouldn't we expect 2026-2027 sailings to be released starting this month? Might give us a clue. I can't really see Sunshine go before Elation and Paradise and I do think Jacksonville will be one of the first ports to be cut, unfortunately for them Port Canaveral is just relatively close.

Of course all just speculation.

Sunshine is older than Elation and Paradise.

 

Jacksonville is under contract with Carnival to at least May 31, 2026 with options to extend to May 31, 2020. Jacksonville will be the closest port to the Atlanta area (and most of the state of Georgia) after Charleston exits the cruise business in January 2025. The state of Georgia dominates the Jacksonville cruise market.

 

Jacksonville might even be a more important market after Charleston signs off, a decent portion of South Carolina is as close if not closer to Jacksonville than Atlanta.

[nc762shooter]

5 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Sunshine is older than Elation and Paradise.

 

Jacksonville is under contract with Carnival to at least May 31, 2026 with options to extend to May 31, 2020. Jacksonville will be the closest port to the Atlanta area (and most of the state of Georgia) after Charleston exits the cruise business in January 2025. The state of Georgia dominates the Jacksonville cruise market.

 

Jacksonville might even be a more important market after Charleston signs off, a decent portion of South Carolina is as close if not closer to Jacksonville than Atlanta.

 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, both Charleston and Jacksonville are mostly considered "local" drive-to ports. Charleston is definitely going out of the game and unlikely to return in the near future unless they can come to some kind of agreement on a new cruise terminal. Jacksonville is limited heightwise for ships to pass under the bridge and could be lost if there are no longer ships that can fit. If Carnival no longer sails from either one that leaves a huge gap with Norfolk and Port Canaveral being the next closest, both of which will require a much longer drive for many, myself included. This means looking at having to add an overnight stay pre-cruise or start considering flying to a port, both of which add to the time and budget required, negating a lot of what made cruising out of Charleston and Jacksonville attractive to many in the first place.

 

I'll be curious if these new ship designs are limited in height to where they can still serve ports like Jacksonville, Tampa, etc.

[CruiseAdict218]

1 hour ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Shouldn't we expect 2026-2027 sailings to be released starting this month? Might give us a clue. I can't really see Sunshine go before Elation and Paradise and I do think Jacksonville will be one of the first ports to be cut, unfortunately for them Port Canaveral is just relatively close.

Of course all just speculation.

We might not see anything till 2028-2029 with those three having what could be their last dry docks in 2026 (but that doesn’t mean anything). Though I also wonder if they will send a bigger ship to Alaska and free up the Spirits and Luminosa for these pending retirements. 

 

I would think a port like Mobile gets cut again, Carnival sighed a five year contract from what I could find which puts them around 2028 or they pick up an older Conquest Class and Spirit moves to Jacksonville or Tampa year round. 
 

 

[tidecat]

17 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

We might not see anything till 2028-2029 with those three having what could be their last dry docks in 2026 (but that doesn’t mean anything). Though I also wonder if they will send a bigger ship to Alaska and free up the Spirits and Luminosa for these pending retirements. 

 

I would think a port like Mobile gets cut again, Carnival sighed a five year contract from what I could find which puts them around 2028 or they pick up an older Conquest Class and Spirit moves to Jacksonville or Tampa year round. 
 

 

Sunshine's next drydock is 2025, not 2026.

 

I would think Mobile would be more likely to pick up a Conquest-class, although it might be seasonal like Spirit's current deployment. The Alaska ships have to work somewhere during the winter, and Australia isn't a great market right now.

 

Getting a neoPanamax capable ship like the Conquest-class in Mobile and Galveston (4th ship during the winter) frees up Spirit and Legend for service in Tampa and Jacksonville. Getting a larger ship for the Brisbane/Seattle platoon would free up Luminosa for Caribbean service as well. Those moves would cover Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa through at least 2032, which assumes Spirit, Pride, and Legend are retired at age 30.

[DutchCruiseFan]

Very interesting to read all of the suggestions! I love a bit of speculating about future deployments. 

With Carnival recently adding two Vista class ships, expecting two new XL class ships, three 230k ships and now two 150k ships, I feel like we are perhaps not super far away from seeing a Dream class ship deployed to Australia? Or would they have to much outdoor space to make work in Australia year-round?

The dancing of the ships coming years would be very interesting.

 

Carnival Dream replaces Splendor year-round to Sydney.

Carnival Magic goes back to Norfolk, gets replaced by an XL class.

Carnival Breeze goes to take over Radiance schedule.

Carnival Splendor does Alaska summers and Brisbane winters.

Luminosa goes to Tampa year-round

Spirit goes to Tampa year-round

Legend goes to Jacksonville year-round

A conquest class goes to Alaskan summers and Alabama winters.

A 150k new build goes to Alaska summers and Galveston winters.

 

Elation, Paradise, Sunshine, Radiance and Sunrise go out of service.

 

 

[DanJ]

3 hours ago, tidecat said:

Based on just the confirmed slate of new builds:

 

2027 Excel 4 in, Sunshine (1996) out

2028 Excel 5 in, Elation (1998) out

2029 XXL 1 in, Paradise (1998) out 

2031 XXL 2 in, Sunrise (1999) out

2033 XXL 3 in, Radiance (2000) Out

 

If the new Fincantieri order happens that may alter the order slightly, and we are probably looking at some retirements from the Spirit and/or Conquest classes.

Personally, don't see them simply going with first in, first out. I think they divest of the Fantasy class completely before getting rid of the Destiny trio. Those Fantasy ships might be a bit newer in actual age, but they are of a much older design.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, DanJ said:

Personally, don't see them simply going with first in, first out. I think they divest of the Fantasy class completely before getting rid of the Destiny trio. Those Fantasy ships might be a bit newer in actual age, but they are of a much older design.

If the Fantasy class ships go first, the time to get rid of them is just before their 2026 drydocks. That would cause a temporary decrease in capacity, and make it much harder to fill contracts with some of the smaller ports.

 

Elation is scheduled for 1/19/26 - 2/8/26; Paradise is scheduled for 4/9/26 - 5/1/26. Sunshine is scheduled for drydock from 1/4/25 - 2/15/25. If Elation or Paradise go through with their drydocks in 2026, Carnival isn't going to get rid of them a year later. The contract with Jacksonville actually runs past Paradise's dry dock, even without the options, so it may be cost effective to breach that contract for a handful of sailings - assuming it doesn't cause a bigger issue in Tampa.

 

 

The scope of required maintenance also changes after a ship reaches age 30, which is why I think these ships will leave in order. There is also a limited number of options for Baltimore, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Sydney (with respect to the terminal upstream of the bridge); Carnival needs to squeeze out as much life out of those ships as possible. I think Carnival in particular would want to hold onto Jacksonville now that Norwegian has entered the market.

 

Moving Spirit and Legend (or whatever has the Galveston/San Francisco platoon by then) to Jacksonville and Tampa sometime between mid 2028 and early 2029 would be the better move. This avoids the more expensive work that would be needed in 2029 (or even late 2028) by the Fantasy class.

 

The Excel 4/Sunshine swap would be straightforward - give one of the Big 4 (Miami, Port Canaveral, Galveston, Long Beach) a shiny new toy, and give Norfolk a newer (and possibly larger) ship.

Sunshine would be over 30 by the time she goes to drydock in late 2027 or early 2028.

 

Carnival also risks not holding on to experienced crew by cutting the Fantasy class ships earlier. Given the additional crew needed (about 600 more) compared to Sunshine for the fourth Excel-class ship, I think Sunshine signs off in mid-2027. One of the Fantasy sisters being swapped out for Excel 5 would require about 850 additional crew members. We don't know the crew complement yet for the megaships, but Carnival would have work for the 900-1100 crew off whatever ship is retired as each new ship enters service. The point being is that the growth of the crew has to be managed too - you don't wnat sudden hiring spikes only to turn around and cut positions later.

[Pellaz]

11 hours ago, tidecat said:

Unless if these are going to be built as neoPanamax, in which case they can service Alaska, there is not much incentive to back off the mega ship trend.

 

--Except that Carnival will need some newer ships that can meet the height requirement of ports like Tampa and Baltimore.  

 

7 hours ago, nc762shooter said:

I'll be curious if these new ship designs are limited in height to where they can still serve ports like Jacksonville, Tampa, etc.

 

Yes indeed, THIS.   The new 150Kton ships could possibly be designed to be short enough to fit under the bridges -- maybe make them wider and/or longer.  

 

I'd also like to see Carnival return to Port Everglades, too.  I have some nice memories of that homeport. 

[jimbo5544]

18 hours ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Interesting indeed. It seems like the expectation is 2 for AIDA, 2 for Carnival and 2 for Costa.

The Costa order would surprise me a bit. I expected them to be absorbed by Carnival in the future.

 

Feels like we can expect this class of ships for more companies if succesful. Thinking of P&O and Princess. 150k is a good size. The article also mentions an option for two more.

It is really interesting.  The Costa ones are down the road, lots of time before that will be a true topic and the orders could be nothing more than a placeholder.  We will see.