Additional 150k ton newbuilds to be ordered for Carnival.

[jimbo5544]

7 hours ago, Pellaz said:

 

--Except that Carnival will need some newer ships that can meet the height requirement of ports like Tampa and Baltimore.  

 

 

Yes indeed, THIS.   The new 150Kton ships could possibly be designed to be short enough to fit under the bridges -- maybe make them wider and/or longer.  

 

I'd also like to see Carnival return to Port Everglades, too.  I have some nice memories of that homeport. 

Quite possibly.  good point

[DutchCruiseFan]

Although I don't expect one ship to leave for every ship that comes in, it is not an entirely weird suggestion. John Heald has been hinting on an XL-class doing short cruises, so an XL could very easily directly replace Sunrise. 

Another new XL could replace either Vista or Horizon from their schedules.

Let's say that an XL takes over the Vista schedule, Vista could then replace Carnival Dream in Galveston and Dream could move to Norfolk with Sunshine leaving the fleet.

However, I do very much expect Elation and Paradise to leave the fleet first.

[staceyglow]

12 hours ago, DanJ said:

Personally, don't see them simply going with first in, first out. I think they divest of the Fantasy class completely before getting rid of the Destiny trio. Those Fantasy ships might be a bit newer in actual age, but they are of a much older design.

And why assume that they have to get rid of a ship every time they launch a new one? 

[jsglow]

 I'm sure right now CCL wishes it had a few of those old Fantasy hulls that were beached at Aliaga still in operation. Carnival can expand its overall product offerings by stretching its existing older fleet as long as possible. I'd argue that they found 'Sunshining' to be money well spent and the money spent on the Spirits so far is significant. I do think Elation and Paradise are the first to eventually go but I'd be surprised if they skipped their '26 dry dock appointments. We'll see. CCL has lots of decisions to make about the positioning of all of their brands. 

Edited August 9 by jsglow

[jimbo5544]

49 minutes ago, jsglow said:

 I'm sure right now CCL wishes it had a few of those old Fantasy hulls that were beached at Aliaga still in operation. Carnival can expand its overall product offerings by stretching its existing older fleet as long as possible. I'd argue that they found 'Sunshining' to be money well spent and the money spent on the Spirits so far is significant. I do think Elation and Paradise are the first to eventually go but I'd be surprised if they skipped their '26 dry dock appointments. We'll see. CCL has lots of decisions to make about the positioning of all of their brands. 

I recently had a conversation with someone on the mgt team regarding the Fantasy class.  The ones scrapped were upside down in refurb costs.  WAY upside down.  There was no saving them.

[JMAE]

With demand at a high level. Why retire ships now, I would wait until demands shows signs of slowing. From what I have read, demand forecasts are still strong. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

45 minutes ago, JMAE said:

With demand at a high level. Why retire ships now, I would wait until demands shows signs of slowing. From what I have read, demand forecasts are still strong. 

This is a possible approach: add new ships until your sold-out cruises start to diminish, and then carefully cull the herd where you don't see demand growing or it is actually shrinking, either by removing an older (maybe smaller) ship from a busy port (Miami, PC) or swapping ship sizes around until you have a spare, older ship that isn't worth keeping.

 

The problem with that is it requires better management of the dynamic crew arrangements as you swell then back off, and may give the impression of not knowing how to forecast demand, and all the flak that comes with that.

[ProgRockCruiser]

One more thing...

 

This new class of ship, at 150K GT, is not all that small - they would be bigger than the Vista class, not quite half-way to the Excel class. (Depending on how much bigger than 150K GT they turn out to be.)

 

So I don't see how these can be "replacements" for the smallest ships in Carnival's fleet, no matter how short (air draft) they make them.

[DanJ]

28 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

One more thing...

 

This new class of ship, at 150K GT, is not all that small - they would be bigger than the Vista class, not quite half-way to the Excel class. (Depending on how much bigger than 150K GT they turn out to be.)

 

So I don't see how these can be "replacements" for the smallest ships in Carnival's fleet, no matter how short (air draft) they make them.

An Oasis size footprint with a Spirit height might add up to that tonnage, not sure how odd the ship might look though lol. Also not sure how that extra couple hundred feet of length affects the ship's ability to navigate those ports. Pretty tight turn in Jax under the bridge for instance, not sure if that makes it more difficult or not

Edited August 9 by DanJ

[tidecat]

28 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

One more thing...

 

This new class of ship, at 150K GT, is not all that small - they would be bigger than the Vista class, not quite half-way to the Excel class. (Depending on how much bigger than 150K GT they turn out to be.)

 

So I don't see how these can be "replacements" for the smallest ships in Carnival's fleet, no matter how short (air draft) they make them.

Theoretically you can have a ship that is 40 meters wide, 40 meters tall from the waterline to the top deck, and 300 meters long. That is 480,000 cubic meters. Divide that by approximately 3.2 (gross tonnage is logarithmic, so 3.2 is an approximation), and the result is 150,000 gross tons. You can still tack on the balconies, exterior promenade, lifeboats, an exhaust stack, and any top deck amenities and still be within the neoPanamax envelope and fit under the bridges in JAX, TPA, and BAL.

[DutchCruiseFan]

29 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

One more thing...

 

This new class of ship, at 150K GT, is not all that small - they would be bigger than the Vista class, not quite half-way to the Excel class. (Depending on how much bigger than 150K GT they turn out to be.)

 

So I don't see how these can be "replacements" for the smallest ships in Carnival's fleet, no matter how short (air draft) they make them.

I doubt we will ever see the big companies order new ships a lot under 150k again. Even Norwegian is upsizing their medium sized Prima class to 172k from the original 142k, which the CEO said is because of the better economics it gives. 

I think it is just the economics of the modern day cruise industry. 

 

So I think these ships might very well be direct replacements for the smaller ships. 

[DanJ]

13 hours ago, tidecat said:

If the Fantasy class ships go first, the time to get rid of them is just before their 2026 drydocks. That would cause a temporary decrease in capacity, and make it much harder to fill contracts with some of the smaller ports.

 

Elation is scheduled for 1/19/26 - 2/8/26; Paradise is scheduled for 4/9/26 - 5/1/26. Sunshine is scheduled for drydock from 1/4/25 - 2/15/25. If Elation or Paradise go through with their drydocks in 2026, Carnival isn't going to get rid of them a year later. The contract with Jacksonville actually runs past Paradise's dry dock, even without the options, so it may be cost effective to breach that contract for a handful of sailings - assuming it doesn't cause a bigger issue in Tampa.

 

 

The scope of required maintenance also changes after a ship reaches age 30, which is why I think these ships will leave in order. There is also a limited number of options for Baltimore, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Sydney (with respect to the terminal upstream of the bridge); Carnival needs to squeeze out as much life out of those ships as possible. I think Carnival in particular would want to hold onto Jacksonville now that Norwegian has entered the market.

 

Moving Spirit and Legend (or whatever has the Galveston/San Francisco platoon by then) to Jacksonville and Tampa sometime between mid 2028 and early 2029 would be the better move. This avoids the more expensive work that would be needed in 2029 (or even late 2028) by the Fantasy class.

 

The Excel 4/Sunshine swap would be straightforward - give one of the Big 4 (Miami, Port Canaveral, Galveston, Long Beach) a shiny new toy, and give Norfolk a newer (and possibly larger) ship.

Sunshine would be over 30 by the time she goes to drydock in late 2027 or early 2028.

 

Carnival also risks not holding on to experienced crew by cutting the Fantasy class ships earlier. Given the additional crew needed (about 600 more) compared to Sunshine for the fourth Excel-class ship, I think Sunshine signs off in mid-2027. One of the Fantasy sisters being swapped out for Excel 5 would require about 850 additional crew members. We don't know the crew complement yet for the megaships, but Carnival would have work for the 900-1100 crew off whatever ship is retired as each new ship enters service. The point being is that the growth of the crew has to be managed too - you don't wnat sudden hiring spikes only to turn around and cut positions later.

If Sunshine is having a 6 week drydock 5 months from now, why would they be getting rid of it in the next 3 years?

[ProgRockCruiser]

20 minutes ago, DanJ said:

If Sunshine is having a 6 week drydock 5 months from now, why would they be getting rid of it in the next 3 years?

Because older cruise ships have to dry dock every three years, IIRC.  So this might be her last dry dock.  Otherwise, Carnival would want to keep her another three years after the next, through early 2031.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Because older cruise ships have to dry dock every three years, IIRC.  So this might be her last dry dock.  Otherwise, Carnival would want to keep her another three years after the next, through early 2031.

The drydock is most likely in Spain as well, so lop off at least two of those six weeks for transit across the pond and back.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, DanJ said:

Pretty tight turn in Jax under the bridge for instance, not sure if that makes it more difficult or not

Jaxport has had the freighter ONE Stork call there and she is 1,194 feet long - six feet longer than Utopia of the Seas. Berth #10 where the cruise ships call is 1,289 feet long.

[jimbo5544]

5 hours ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Although I don't expect one ship to leave for every ship that comes in, it is not an entirely weird suggestion. John Heald has been hinting on an XL-class doing short cruises, so an XL could very easily directly replace Sunrise. 

Another new XL could replace either Vista or Horizon from their schedules.

Let's say that an XL takes over the Vista schedule, Vista could then replace Carnival Dream in Galveston and Dream could move to Norfolk with Sunshine leaving the fleet.

However, I do very much expect Elation and Paradise to leave the fleet first.

I think it is a safe bet an excel will be doing short cruises

[jsglow]

52 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I think it is a safe bet an excel will be doing short cruises

100% agree. Picture Mardi Gras doing Sunrise's future 5/5/4 Cele Key, HMC, GT and Cele Key, Nassau runs. So that begs the question about Sunrise's next assignment. How 'bout San Juan in the winter and a second Europe boat in the summer? (Obviously there's other options.)  That reinforces my point about redeployment into new itineraries/ports of a perfectly good ship that you just dropped $200 large into. Except for maybe Sunshine, those other 2 Destiny Class boats aren't going anywhere for years.  In fact CCL already had a new date in mind when they dropped big $ into them. Carnival needs more ships/berths, not fewer.

[787cruiser]

23 minutes ago, jsglow said:

those other 2 Destiny Class boats aren't going anywhere for years.

Given their dry dock schedules I see sunrise retiring in 2030 and radiance in 2032.

Edited August 9 by 787cruiser

[tidecat]

46 minutes ago, jsglow said:

Except for maybe Sunshine, those other 2 Destiny Class boats aren't going anywhere for years.  In fact CCL already had a new date in mind when they dropped big $ into them. Carnival needs more ships/berths, not fewer.

Even with retiring Sunshine as the fourth Excel enters the fleet that still puts Carnival up about 2,300 lower berths.

 

If we go with FIFO through 2033, that still adds about 13,000 lower berths between 2027 and 2033 just on the five confirmed new builds. Counting he two pending Australian imports, Carnival Cruise Line's capacity is only 94,030 lower berths as of 2025. Swapping out the five oldest for five new builds between 2027-2033 still is an average of 2.2% growth annually for Carnival Cruise Line. Toss in the two 150k ton new builds and the average will be at least 3% even with retiring two more older vessels.

[DutchCruiseFan]

1 hour ago, jsglow said:

100% agree. Picture Mardi Gras doing Sunrise's future 5/5/4 Cele Key, HMC, GT and Cele Key, Nassau runs. So that begs the question about Sunrise's next assignment. How 'bout San Juan in the winter and a second Europe boat in the summer? (Obviously there's other options.)  That reinforces my point about redeployment into new itineraries/ports of a perfectly good ship that you just dropped $200 large into. Except for maybe Sunshine, those other 2 Destiny Class boats aren't going anywhere for years.  In fact CCL already had a new date in mind when they dropped big $ into them. Carnival needs more ships/berths, not fewer.

Totally agree. Quite certain that an XL will take over those Sunrise runs, which look appealing btw. 

I'm not sure about Sunshine now, I cruised on her in 2018 and it made a good impression on us, I can't really see it go yet in 2027 or 2028. 

 

Then I guess what holds the key is, how well does Norfolk perform? Could it justify a Dream class again? You'd think that they downsized with a reason.

Perhaps Sunshine could actually leave in 2027 and Sunrise will go to Norfolk.

I must say I really like the idea of Sunshine or Sunrise giving San Juan a go.

 

PS: A bit off-topic but, could we ever see the Conquest class getting a Sunshine style makeover? That'd be great to see.

[787cruiser]

In terms of retirements and arrivals my guess in what we'll see is;

 

2027 - Excel 4 arrives

2028 - Sunshine is due for dry dock, retired.

2028 - Excel 5 arrives

2029 - Elevation and Paradise due for dry docks, retired.

2029 - New mega class arrives.

2030 - Sunrise due for dry dock, retired.

2030 - Possible new 150k GT arrival.

2031 - 2nd new mega class

2031/32 - Radiance due for dry dock, retired.

 

[chengkp75]

Let me just say that dry dock schedules have really very little to do with decisions to retire a ship.  When the clock comes around and the dry dock is due, you have two choices, shut the ship down, or do the dry dock.  Even if you intend to sell or scrap the ship in a few months, you have to have a dry dock inspection completed at the statutory time, or the ship stops running.  You can't do what many people do, and continue to run their cars without state inspections or registrations.  If your class certificates are out of date, no port will let you enter.

[jeblack1]

On 8/8/2024 at 4:18 PM, DutchCruiseFan said:

Shouldn't we expect 2026-2027 sailings to be released starting this month? Might give us a clue. I can't really see Sunshine go before Elation and Paradise and I do think Jacksonville will be one of the first ports to be cut, unfortunately for them Port Canaveral is just relatively close.

Of course all just speculation.

I think cutting Jacksonville wouldn't be desirable as they are already losing Charleston at the end of the year.  My drive to a cruise port goes from 30 minutes to 4 hours to 6 hours.   If I am driving 6, I will just drive a few more and leave from Miami or take a flight.   I am hopeful that Charleston may return as a embarkation port one day as several ships can fit under the Ravenel bridge and the port just purchased last in North Charleston along with plans for a taller bridge (same height at Ravenel) are being discussed....why not just throw a parking garage and a dock.   

[DutchCruiseFan]

6 minutes ago, jeblack1 said:

I think cutting Jacksonville wouldn't be desirable as they are already losing Charleston at the end of the year.  My drive to a cruise port goes from 30 minutes to 4 hours to 6 hours.   If I am driving 6, I will just drive a few more and leave from Miami or take a flight.   I am hopeful that Charleston may return as a embarkation port one day as several ships can fit under the Ravenel bridge and the port just purchased last in North Charleston along with plans for a taller bridge (same height at Ravenel) are being discussed....why not just throw a parking garage and a dock.   

Yeah makes sense, especially with the added competition from Norwegian now. Jacksonville is probably there to stay.

 

On another note, there is something else I just thought off considering an XL taking over the Sunrise schedule, it feels like that could actually be their main reason for building a pier in Half Moon Cay now. Especially in combination with JH saying they're considering putting an XL on short routes... 1+1=2.

[tidecat]

51 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Let me just say that dry dock schedules have really very little to do with decisions to retire a ship.  When the clock comes around and the dry dock is due, you have two choices, shut the ship down, or do the dry dock.  Even if you intend to sell or scrap the ship in a few months, you have to have a dry dock inspection completed at the statutory time, or the ship stops running.  You can't do what many people do, and continue to run their cars without state inspections or registrations.  If your class certificates are out of date, no port will let you enter.

The decision will be made well before the point of no return. Ecstasy's final revenue sailing was October 10, 2022. She was beached a month later.

 

The bigger driver on the retirement date will be the need to manage growth in passenger capacity and crew requirements. Sunshine will bow out sometime in 2027 if she is being replaced by Excel #4.

.