tidecat

Venezia is supposed to be based in New York as of "Spring 2023". Firenze is supposed to be based in Long Beach as of "Spring 2024". Prior press releases have indicated these cruises will be sold by Carnival, so they should be available through Carnival.com. Sailings will count towards Carnival's loyalty program.

I was in Bonaire in February on the Horizon. Ship kept Eastern Standard Time the whole trip, even though local time was Atlantic Standard (one hour ahead). Keep in mind Bonaire does not observe DST, so it is possible for ship's time to match local time for part of the year.

Both Venezia and Firenze are supposed to have drydocks before repositioning to North America. I'm wondering if those have been finalized, because those will likely have the greatest impact on when service for Carnival begins. FWIW, Luminosa still hasn't opened for booking and is going to sail for Carnival in potentially less than 90 days.

I think most of those were flushed out earlier this year, although there's not to say there might be some out there. There would also potentially be a decent number of people with FCC from the Freedom fire and the related cancellation on the Conquest.

If it approaches $20, I expect there will be a secondary offering to raise funds and pay down debt. There will be plenty who will hop on around $15-$18 then. We may not see $22-$24 until the balance sheet is cleaned up to the point to allow dividends, or more likely, stock buybacks.

Some analysts seem intent on dying on the hill that we're going to have a severe recession. I just don't see Carnival getting to below $7 in the next 12 months as long as GDP stays within striking distance if not above zero.

Actually, Funship 2.0 was designed to be done during a 2-week drydock. So technically there isn't a reason those venues can't be installed, it's a question of how many resources Carnival is willing/able to muster for the project. Guy's Burger Joint will require some construction if the installation is going to be identical to the majority of the fleet, as that typically entails changing one venue into two (Off the Grill > Guy's + Blue Iguana). Some of these shouldn't require more than redecorating. The only one that may be an issue is Punchliner, as the theatre is configured differently than on the other Spirit class ships.

Virgin has two completed and two due in 2023. I believe Resilient Lady was supposed to start sailing in 2022, but has been pushed back to May 2023.

The reactor used on the NS Savannah would run over $288 million in 2022 dollars. That was for 74 MW of power, which is just barely less than what is onboard Carnival Magic (75.6 MW). Even with a range of 300,000 nautical miles, the ship would likely need to be refueled about once every five to six years. For a ship that uses around 150 tons of fuel at $800/ton per day, that would be around $44 million annually. Over a long enough time frame, nuclear might be competitive, but disposing of the spent fuel and eventually the ship itself would likely erase any savings. There would also I'm sure be extra layers of precautions that would have a cost. An evacuation drill might have to be redesigned to take into account any issues with the reactor. That's not to mention any additional maintenance or monitoring that would take place.

Maybe not in the US, but Norway is investing heavily in the carbon-free (green) production of hydrogen.

I think both Carnival and Royal have a tough four to six years ahead of them. I expect the dilution/convertible debt offerings to be roughly an annual event for the next few years. This will especially be true if interest rates remain high.

If cruise lines still have relatively weak balance sheets later this decade, I could see some non-cruise tourism/travel companies looking to make acquisitions. Universal, via parent company Comcast, seems like a natural. The IPs from the theme park and film side would yield plenty of opportunities for branding onboard a ship). Any airline or hotel operator would also have a lot to leverage, especially if they could combine the loyalty program across multiple products (i.e., redeem airline miles for a cruise, or earn free flights for a certain number of nights onboard). I would also expect MSC to be a possible player for any cruise related acquisitions. CCL, RCL, and NCLH would give them a more American-focused brand to go with the more European-focused MSC Cruises. I also imagine there would be synergies with the cargo side of MSC that could be leveraged. I would expect Virgin Voyages to be acquired first before any of Carnival, Royal, or Norwegian. It's a small enough lime that would be a feasible investment. The ships would need some extensive work to be rebranded, but it probably beats building 3-4 ships from scratch.

Carnival only has so many ships that fit under the the bridges in Jacksonville, Tampa, and Baltimore. There might be some flexibility in theory with Miracle, Spirit, and Luminosa being in home ports without such onerous limitations, but there aren't many "outs" left. Paradise will be just shy of 25 when she emerges from the 2023 drydock. Depending on how well TPA, JAX, and BAL sell, Paradise may be around to late 2030 or early 2031.

There's a lot of pressure around the world to cut carbon emissions. Short of replacing ships, reducing fuel consumption is the next best step to take. I also would not be surprised to see at least Seabourn jump on the hydrogen bandwagon, presuming Carnival keeps the brand. Viking and Explora (MSC) have already committed to hydrogen mewbuilds.

I bet they don't. Mardi Gras will have been in Port Canaveral for three years, Celebration will have been in Miami for two years, and Jubilee will have only been in service for a year from Galveston. Most importantly, there hasn't been a newbuild announced for after the Jubilee. Not to mention if there's anything Texas-themed on Jubilee, similar to the Miami theme on Celebration, we can expect the LNG ships to stay awhile.

I'm not sure why this is news. This was reported when the development was first announced.

The plug was actually pulled pre-Covid. Carnival Fascination was originally going to reposition to Mobile in January 2022 to replace Carnival Fantasy, including a rare San Juan to Mobile one-way cruise.

Most modern cruise ships cost around $1 million per month to operate, even without passengers - we'll see ships sold for scrap rather than put into a long-term layup.

I wonder how many charters we'll see related to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles - it's not like the area doesn't have hotel rooms, although LA is only the sixth largest market by number of hotel rooms at around 99,000. London reportedly had overseas visitors account for 3.86 Million nights during the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics. I suspect Carnival might just want to keep a ship or two tied up at Long Beach and/or San Pedro for the duration of the event

Royal Caribbean is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow (July 28, 10:00 AM Eastern), it will be interesting to see if CCL and NCLH "fly in formation".

I wouldn't be surprised if the market has basically priced that in already - we know there will be a rate hike in September, it's just a question of how much (most likely 75-100 basis points). Additionally, if Carnival has debt at fixed rates, the rate hike doesn't do a whole lot other than affect financing on any new loans - the only ship on order that hasn't started construction is the 2025 Sphere class ship for Princess. It will limit the potential savings from refinancing, although posting a profitable quarter or two would likely have a bigger impact than the change in interest rates.

It may be close to three weeks. I submitted mine 22 days before my cruise earlier this year, and it did not post until a few days before embarkation.

I suspect Carnival will want to get the majority of destinations in the Caribbean in the same page in an attempt to simplify communication to current and prospective guests. There are a lot of people who think that because the requirements in one destination are X, that X will be the requirements in all destinations. That doesn't help when you could have X, Y, and Z requires on the same itinerary. Even if Carnival is willing to change itineraries because one destination is still holding on to stricter protocols, finding an alternative port may be a challenge.

Tading below $1 for 30 days is essentially the point of no return - at that point it can be delisted from NYSE. Although in theory shares could continue to be traded over the counter should delisting happen.

I don't believe your phone will adjust to local time if it's in airplane mode. At least it didn't for me when I was in the Southern Caribbean (local time was Atlantic Standard, ship's time was Eastern Standard).