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mnocket

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About mnocket

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Evergreen CO
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    Celebrity
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    Everywhere

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  1. In my infinite wisdom, I see 2 possibilities..... 1) Cruising resumes in late summer/early fall and demand is strong. Reviews confirm that social distancing measures have not seriously degraded the cruise experience. There are no major COVID incidents. Cruise stocks soar and never look back. 2) Cruising resumes, but there are COVID incidents/port refusals etc. Cruising is again suspended. Cruise stocks crash to below recent lows. Of course there's always the odd chance I'm wrong and something in between 1 & 2 occurs. That's what makes a market🤪
  2. OK. Looks like I'm the only one who wants cruising to return to what it was. Truth be told, I want cruising to return to what is was 15 years ago. I don't want prices to rise substantially. I know they will because of the huge additional debt payments cruise lines have taken on, but I don't want significant additional price increases because ships are sailing at reduced capacity to accommodate social distancing. In the MDR I'd love 2-tops to be spaced 6 ft apart, but the ramifications of this would be unacceptable. I wouldn't mind buffets having servers, but not if re-configuring the space to accommodate servers resulted in greatly reduced food options. Oh, and if buffet seating is spread out to accommodate social distancing, just imagine how much less seating there will be. I'd love more space between pool loungers, but not if it resulted in fewer loungers - which it would. Just imagine how few there would be if loungers were spaced 6 ft apart! No. I don't want a new normal where the experience is severely degraded. While I'm not asking for it, I realize I may get it anyway, and if I do I will re-evaluate the value of cruise vacations. Be careful what you ask for😮
  3. IMHO this phase of the pandemic response has things exactly backward. As we open up the economy, we can no longer impose the responsibility of protecting the high risk groups on the shoulders of the young and healthy. It's now time for the elderly and those with comorbidities to assume responsibility for their own safety from COVID. Yes, some of the young and healthy have also died from COVID-19, but this is the exception - for school age children it is a very rare exception. Children need to return to school. If you follow the science there is no justification for keeping schools closed any longer. Young and middle age healthy adults need to get on with their lives and get back to work...... and yes, back to socializing. Again, the science tells us that for this demographic COVID-19 is akin to the flu - and we don't take these drastic measures for flu season - even though tens of thousands die. Will more of the young and healthy contract COVID-19? Yep, but only a very small percentage will get seriously ill and of those only a tiny percentage will die. So that leaves us older folk, and those with comorbidities, to fend for ourselves - as is appropriate and doable. This means that while others are encouraged to wear cloth masks to protect others, we must wear masks designed to protect the wearer (i.e. ourselves). We need to wear N95 or equivalent masks when we leave the house just like those worn by hospital workers (who despite working in a coronavirus rich environment every day have an infection rate equal to, or often lower than, the public). It also means that while the young and healthy start to return to normal, we can't. The risk for them relaxing social distancing rules is so much lower than it is for us. They can resume flying, we can't. They can start to return to restaurants, we can't. And yes, in a couple of months they can resume cruising, we can't. In truth, we too can start to do these things - and some of us will, but in doing so we must accept the risk along with the responsibility to protect ourselves. This is no longer a burden we can impose on the young. Just my 2 cents.
  4. That's why I started this thread. The 2021 Norwegian Fjords cruise I've been watching has increased $1,000 per person.
  5. It seems many of the major lines have secured capital to keep their heads above water for about a year. I suspect there will be some bankruptcies, but probably not until sometime next year.
  6. You seem to have more knowledge than me on vaccines. Do you agree or disagree that too much faith is being put in an eventual vaccine as a silver bullet solution? As you point out, there has never been a commercially available human vaccine against a coronavirus, yet again and again I hear people saying "I won't return to [fill in the blank] until a vaccine is available. Such statements indicate a belief that 1) the availability of a vaccine is a certainty, and 2) the widespread availability of a vaccine means the high risk group is safe from COVID. Am I mistaken? Is there a high probability that a vaccine going to be THE solution to COVID?
  7. It seems there are some real benefits to the newer ships. On RCL's earnings conference call, they said that the break even load factor for their newer ships 30% versus 50% for the older ships. This was based on EIBTDA so ignores your depreciation issue, but still clearly indicates the improve operating efficiency of newer ships.
  8. Excellent point! I strongly suspect that many of the changes the cruise lines will be required to make in order to maintain a safe, socially distanced, environment will result in a degraded customer experience. It's wise to wait until you know what you're buying before you buy it.
  9. Vaccines are not the silver bullet many believe. There's no reason to expect a COVID vaccine will be significantly more effective than the common flu vaccine which, in a good year is 50% effective and in a bad year 30% effective. That said, the psychological impact of a vaccine may well trump its effectiveness and sound an "All Clear". As for CCL stock..... I've been following NCLH, but haven't bought any yet. My thinking is that the return to cruising will likely be led by the young who are not as threatened by COVID. Norwegian is more a pure play on the younger party boat demographic. However, my prediction is that we will see another severe market drop in the fall as the reality of our economic situation becomes clearer. For instance, I expect a large spike in unemployment as companies that are currently keeping staff onboard, due to restrictions tied to government loans, see those restrictions expire and move quickly to reduce staff. I also expect we will be seeing a surge in bankruptcies - some of them being large corporations (airlines, cruise lines, etc.). I'm sitting about 50% in cash waiting for an opportunity in the fall. In the meantime I'm still making some money in the market as it continues this rally which I think is based more on hope than reason.
  10. I posted this on another forum, but it applies here as well..... Just my 2 cents...... Social Distancing: From a practical standpoint, social distancing is impossible on a cruise ship - unless the capacity is reduced to a point where it's no longer profitable. For example, how do they feed everyone and maintain social distancing? There are a ton of issues here, but to name a few...... what happens to the MDR capacity if those 2-tops that are currently spaced about 4 inches apart are required to be 6 feet apart? What happens to capacity when those shared 8-tops are eliminated and replaced with 2 or 4-tops? What happens to capacity when the buffet is converted to another dinning room and pax who previously made a quick pit stop for food now spend 1hr+ eating a served meal? Vaccinations: A good step forward, but they will likely fall far short of the silver bullet solution many anticipate. There is little reason to believe that a COVID vaccine will be far more effective than the common flu vaccine - which in a good year is about 50% effective and in a bad year 30% effective. If you think that the availability of a vaccine is the "All Clear" for the high risk group, you really should read this article from stat.com (a highly respected health site). https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/ The Crew: The crew accommodations are the antithesis of social distancing. I doubt this can be changed. Passenger Experience: If social distancing is required, it's hard to imagine that the cruise experience will resemble anything close to what it has been in the past. This may be acceptable to some, but consider.... when you sit in the main show room, how many people are typically sitting within 6 feet of you? If those seats are kept empty, what happens to the capacity of the show room? Even if they add a third evening performance, seating is going to be rationed and many will not get in. What would your favorite pre-dinner bar be like if seating was spaced for social distancing? Think chair hogs were a problem? Just wait until the number of pool lounges are reduced to allow for social distancing. In the final analysis I think there are currently two mutually exclusive requirements for cruise line recovery: 1) A safe environment, and 2) An enjoyable passenger experience for most. Until/unless this coronavirus is wiped out, you can have one, but not the other. I hope I'm wrong and cruise lines find a way to provide a safe environment while not degrading the customer experience significantly. That would be a very good thing - I'm just not convinced it's possible.
  11. Just my 2 cents...... Social Distancing: From a practical standpoint, social distancing is impossible on a cruise ship - unless the capacity is reduced to a point where it's no longer profitable. For example, how do they feed everyone and maintain social distancing? There are a ton of issues here, but to name a few...... what happens to the MDR capacity if those 2-tops that are currently spaced about 4 inches apart are required to be 6 feet apart? What happens to capacity when those shared 8-tops are eliminated and replaced with 2 or 4-tops? What happens to capacity when the buffet is converted to another dinning room and pax who previously made a quick pit stop for food now spend 1hr+ eating a served meal? Vaccinations: A good step forward, but they will likely fall far short of the silver bullet solution many anticipate. There is little reason to believe that a COVID vaccine will be far more effective than the common flu vaccine - which in a good year is about 50% effective and in a bad year 30% effective. If you think that the availability of a vaccine is the "All Clear" for the high risk group, you really should read this article from stat.com (a highly respected health site). https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/ The Crew: The crew accommodations are the antithesis of social distancing. I doubt this can be changed. Passenger Experience: If social distancing is required, it's hard to imagine that the cruise experience will resemble anything close to what it has been in the past. This may be acceptable to some, but consider.... when you sit in the main show room, how many people are typically sitting within 6 feet of you? If those seats are kept empty, what happens to the capacity of the show room? Even if they add a third evening performance, seating is going to be rationed and many will not get in. What would your favorite pre-dinner bar be like if seating was spaced for social distancing? Think chair hogs were a problem? Just wait until the number of pool lounges are reduced to allow for social distancing. In the final analysis I think there are currently two mutually exclusive requirements for cruise line recovery: 1) A safe environment, and 2) An enjoyable passenger experience for most. Until/unless this coronavirus is wiped out, you can have one, but not the other. I hope I'm wrong and cruise lines find a way to provide a safe environment while not degrading the customer experience significantly. That would be a very good thing - I'm just not convinced it's possible.
  12. For those who didn't check out the link ..... the title of the article is "Coronavirus 'does not spread easily' by touching surfaces or objects, CDC says. But it still 'may be possible.'" So, buffets (which can easily be eliminated) are not such a big problem, but lack of social distancing (which is difficult for a cruise ship to achieve) is THE most important consideration. I'd say that unless cruise ships sail at considerably less than full capacity, social distancing will be impossible to achieve.
  13. Great point! EBITDA is a poor indication of a companies financial health - especially when there are very large interest and depreciation charges. In the case of RCL I'd say EBITDA break even is almost meaningless. I wonder why there was no follow-up question on break even from cash flow or net income perspectives?
  14. Boy was I mistaken. I thought that the cruise fares for a full sailing just covered the cruise line's costs - profits were the result of on-board spending. This can't be right if ships can reach break even at a 50% load factor. Learn something new every day!
  15. OK. I guess I'm dense. Could you explain this to me please?
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