How far in advance to book air for next summer?

[waterbug123]

I've been monitoring pricing and they still seem high. In GENERAL, do airlines drop their prices and/or have a sale for next Summer's travel in the previous Winter?.... Routing, airline preference, amenities and seat comfort are more important than just the lowest price so /quote]

 

Airlines use complicated algorithms to decide when to offer which fare buckets, how many seats to release in each etc. It is largely driven by supply and demand. If the airline believes there's a need at any particular time to lower prices for given dates, they will. If they don't, they won't. Looking at prior patterns really isn't a guarantee that the pattern will repeat itself.

 

Out of curiosity, what prices are you seeing that seem high? And what dates/routing/airline are those prices for? What are you parameters? i.e. are your dates fixed or flexible? Are you set on one airline or alliance or are you flexible? Do you have routing preferences or are you flexible? etc.

[Gardyloo]

We have a Med cruise booked for early June, 2017. Since we will be celebrating our 25th Wedding Anniversary we are splurging on rt business class tix. I've been monitoring pricing and they still seem high. In GENERAL, do airlines drop their prices and/or have a sale for next Summer's travel in the previous Winter? We have no airline miles. Routing, airline preference, amenities and seat comfort are more important than just the lowest price so I'm curious if you more seasoned travelers have an educated guess in regards to how many months out one should expecting better pricing?

 

Thank you in advance for your advice.

 

First, there are no guarantees. As waterbug123 says, trying to outguess the airlines' revenue management robots is a fool's game.

 

Second, yes, it's not uncommon (but be warned - not universally true) that there are business class sales for summer transatlantic travel. It coincides with the falloff in demand for actual business-related travel.

 

Unfortunately the sales usually don't appear in the winter, they appear in the late winter or spring, which can make people nervous.

 

I didn't look exhaustively but here's an example from this May - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/premium-fare-deals/1677723-business-msp-par-1700-aa-ba.html . Good deal but only appearing in May. There are other examples if you want to dig around on that forum on Flyertalk.

 

However one thing I'd do for trips beginning or ending in our region is monitor fares out of Vancouver BC. For some time now, due to the weak Loonie and general market conditions, premium cabin fares to Europe and Asia out of YVR have often been much cheaper than comparable fares out of SEA, more than making up the cost of getting to and from YVR at the start and end of the trip.

 

For example, right now you can book business class round trips from Vancouver to Rome on American Airlines for US$1975 during next June. Round trips from YVR to London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Paris are right around $2000. You could drive or take the train to YVR, and hop a train or a cheap intra-Europe flight to get from your gateway city to your cruise port(s) and still be hundreds, if not thousands of dollars ahead compared to comparable flights out of SEA.

 

You're not going to see a better price than that even in seat sales, so if your dates are fixed I'd hop onto Expedia or whatever and book out of YVR without thinking further about it.

[Alaskanb]

I'm with waterbug123 on this. I know about what I want to pay and don't look back. I'm typically a very early booker --makes me feel better to know it's done. This year in late June I booked a combo of AA and BA business class ELP-LHR flights using AA points for mid-ish May, 2017. I also booked return MAN-DEN flights on Icelandair for $560 pp. Just have to keep you eyes open and know what works for you. As others have said there is no magic moment ......

Edited September 13, 2016 by Alaskanb

[chefchick]

Waterbug and Gardylou - thank you for your insights. I consider the travel day to be part of the overall experience, hence my need for comfort and amenities vs purely low cost. After much research I hope to book on non domestic airlines for a change of pace. Yes, Delta and American might have great long haul Business class products but I'd prefer something different.

 

Our vacation will start in Rome and end in Venice with a couple of nights spent in each city. Since we are also embarking on a 14 day cruise we are looking at a 3 week jaunt so adding days to get to/from another city is not ideal but also not out of the question. I had read here before the great advice to check Vancouver flights for better pricing and have had my eye on 2 particular multi city options; Sea-Fco (on Lufthansa - B747 with a layover in Frankfurt) and Vce - Sea (on Swiss - B777 with layovers in Zurich and SFO) current cost for that route is $3425US/person. I have seen it as high as $4k and average around $3600. The other option is to take the train to Vancouver, overnight in hotel and fly out from there. Vancouver to Rome on Air Canada - B777 with layover in Toronto and the same VCE to Sea return as above on Swiss Air for $3471CA (or $2636 US)/person. Fares starting in Canada have been approx 30% less the entire time I have been monitoring. Yes, that would be a significant savings even with train tix and hotel stay in Vancouver so I am definitely considering it. I am a little gun shy over the whole thing because Seabourn has already changed itineraries for other Med cruises and as you know changing airfare is not "as easy" as canceling/changing cruise fares before final payment.

 

But all that aside...what do you think of the above fares in general? I know no one can be certain of anything other than "they will change" but if you were me would you continue to monitor in hopes for better pricing?

 

Sorry for the long winded questions here...now take out your crystal ball and tell me what you see? ;)

[zoncom]

Check out LH air with your cruise line,RT, one way, deviated, whatever. Booked 1 way Aspen-Rome maybe 5 weeks ago with Choice Air for $465 total.Oct 8 departure.

[Gardyloo]

Our vacation will start in Rome and end in Venice with a couple of nights spent in each city. Since we are also embarking on a 14 day cruise we are looking at a 3 week jaunt so adding days to get to/from another city is not ideal but also not out of the question. I had read here before the great advice to check Vancouver flights for better pricing and have had my eye on 2 particular multi city options; Sea-Fco (on Lufthansa - B747 with a layover in Frankfurt) and Vce - Sea (on Swiss - B777 with layovers in Zurich and SFO) current cost for that route is $3425US/person. I have seen it as high as $4k and average around $3600. The other option is to take the train to Vancouver, overnight in hotel and fly out from there. Vancouver to Rome on Air Canada - B777 with layover in Toronto and the same VCE to Sea return as above on Swiss Air for $3471CA (or $2636 US)/person. Fares starting in Canada have been approx 30% less the entire time I have been monitoring. Yes, that would be a significant savings even with train tix and hotel stay in Vancouver so I am definitely considering it. I am a little gun shy over the whole thing because Seabourn has already changed itineraries for other Med cruises and as you know changing airfare is not "as easy" as canceling/changing cruise fares before final payment.

 

But all that aside...what do you think of the above fares in general? I know no one can be certain of anything other than "they will change" but if you were me would you continue to monitor in hopes for better pricing?

 

What do I think? Assuming you're on the Seabourn sailing from Rome on 6/10/17 and arriving in Venice on 6/24, I think the following could be booked today:

 

6/7/17 - Morning train, Seattle to Vancouver

6/7/17 - Vancouver - London, British Airways business class (dep. 8:30 PM)

6/8/17 - London - Rome, BA business class

6/26/17 - Venice - London - Vancouver, BA business class

6/26/17 - Overnight Vancouver (BA flight arrives early evening, long day)

6/27/17 - Fly or train or rental car or bus back to Seattle

 

Prices: Train, Seattle - Vancouver, say $50 per person

BA flights - US$1972 including taxes & fees

Hotel Vancouver, say $50 per person

Bus/train to Seattle, say $50; fly say $160.

 

Total all in, say $2122 - $2232.

 

Comparison - Seattle - London - Rome, Venice - London - Seattle, BA, same days - $3393. Savings ~ $1160 - $1270 per person.

 

The same flights and prices are available pretty much every day in June. If you had to change some detail on the flight, including date changes, the change fee would be around $150 per ticket.

 

So what I think is that tickets costing $3400 - $4000 per person aren't competitive with tickets costing less than two grand. And business class on BA (an A380 out of YVR) isn't too shabby.

[wowzz]

Just be aware that BA business class on European flights is not that special. Same seat pitch as economy/coach, but with the middle seat left empty, in a typical 3 - 3 configuration.

[waterbug123]

Yes, Delta and American might have great long haul Business class products but I'd prefer something different.

 

That seems a bit odd to me. You've acknowledge that amenities are important to you, and that DL and AA have a great long haul biz product and yet....you want something different. :confused:

 

 

But all that aside...what do you think of the above fares in general? I know no one can be certain of anything other than "they will change" but if you were me would you continue to monitor in hopes for better pricing?

Sorry for the long winded questions here...now take out your crystal ball and tell me what you see? ;)

 

Forget crystal balls, and ask yourself this question for any fare you see?

Am I willing and able to pay MORE if I hold off in hopes that the prices drops, and it ends up going UP instead of down?

This is not the same as asking yourself what you HOPE will happen, but rather, are you actually willing and able to pay more or are you prepared to cancel your trip if you wait and there's a price increase instead of a price drop?

 

That said, take a look at what Gardyloo found. Those are good prices for international summer travel, whereas the $3K-ish prices you saw are average; not a deal but also not unusually high.

 

Just be aware that BA business class on European flights is not that special. Same seat pitch as economy/coach, but with the middle seat left empty, in a typical 3 - 3 configuration.

 

Just to clarify for anyone who might be confused, Wowzz is talking about European DOMESTIC flights, i.e. connecting flights within Europe, such as London to Rome, or Venice to Paris. "European flights" in this case doesn't refer to long haul international, i.e. transatlantic flights. For those, "business class" means actual business class, although the hard product can vary from airline to airline.

[Globaliser]

Just to clarify for anyone who might be confused, Wowzz is talking about European DOMESTIC flights, i.e. connecting flights within Europe, such as London to Rome, or Venice to Paris.

Domestic? Only in Jean-Claude Juncker's dreams! :D

[wowzz]

Domestic? Only in Jean-Claude Juncker's dreams! :D

 

Quite right!

Domestic [to a Brit] means within the UK. Flights to Europe are therefore European, whilst those to the rest of the world are intercontinental.

[zoncom]

I still like EasyJet. Book when fares first out for best pricing.

[wowzz]

I still like EasyJet. Book when fares first out for best pricing.

Personally, I have always found that EZY prices are higher when first released, and it pays to wait at least a month or two. As has been pointed out many times, it is of course impossible to say when the actual lowest price point has been reached.

 

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[chefchick]

 

That said, take a look at what Gardyloo found. Those are good prices for international summer travel, whereas the $3K-ish prices you saw are average; not a deal but also not unusually high.

 

This is exactly the advice I was looking for. Thank you. And yes, I will look into that BA flight (thanks again Gardyloo)

 

 

Just to clarify for anyone who might be confused, Wowzz is talking about European DOMESTIC flights, i.e. connecting flights within Europe, such as London to Rome, or Venice to Paris. "European flights" in this case doesn't refer to long haul international, i.e. transatlantic flights. For those, "business class" means actual business class, although the hard product can vary from airline to airline.

 

I am aware of the difference between long haul business class vs intra-Europe/domestic. Again, I am doing research on ease of airport transfers/connections, lounge access and amenities...unlike my husband I love to fly so he leaves all these details to me.

 

Appreciate all the advice here. This is one of the more "helpful" boards on CC.

[waterbug123]

Quite right!

Domestic [to a Brit] means within the UK. Flights to Europe are therefore European, whilst those to the rest of the world are intercontinental.

 

My apologies for using the term "domestic" when referring to intra-European flights. By my point remains: The "faux" business class isn't an issue on transatlantic flights TO or FROM Europe, only within Europe/UK.

[Globaliser]

My apologies for using the term "domestic" when referring to intra-European flights. By my point remains: The "faux" business class isn't an issue on transatlantic flights TO or FROM Europe, only within Europe/UK.

You are of course right - and I was only teasing! :D

[waterbug123]

you are of course right - and i was only teasing! :d

 

:d:d:d

[iancal]

We used to think buying months in advance was best. Experience over the past few years has changed our minds. It seems to be a question of the economy, people's willingness to travel..supply and demand.

 

We just got back from Europe. Booked the ticket three weeks in advance and went because of a bargain air offer. Same with our Europe flights the previous year.

 

We have flown to SE Asia for the past three winters. ABsolute best fare that we have bought was the one ten days out from our departure date.

 

Now we pick up a fare when the number seems 'right'. There will be people on the plane who paid more and some who paid less. Trick is to get a fare/routing that we are comfortable with.

[gklingel52]

So called travel experts say 53 days out yields the best airfare. We booked our airfare about 90 days ahead and haven't found anything lower since.

 

 

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[wowzz]

Travel experts will tell you that 53 days out is NOT the best time to buy - in fact no one knows when the best time is.

 

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[waterbug123]

So called travel experts say 53 days out yields the best airfare. We booked our airfare about 90 days ahead and haven't found anything lower since.

 

Read those articles carefully. I don't think any experts have ever actually said that 53 (or whatever number) of days out is THE best day to buy. What the articles say is that ON AVERAGE, the lowest fares are found 53 days out. Which means the lowest actual fare on any given flight could be 18 days out or 79 days or any other number. When you average all flights over a period of time, supposedly T-53. Those articles are very misleading.

 

Here's an example:

Let's say I looked at 9 flights after the fact.

For flight #1, the lowest price was available at T-50

For flight #2, the lowest prices was available at T-56

For flight #3, the lowest price was available at T-63

For flight #4, the lowest price was available at T-43

Flight #5, T-58

Flight #6, T-48

Flight #7, T-33

Flight #8, T-73

Flight #9, T-52

FLight #10, T-54

 

Add them up and divide by 10 and the average is 53 days out. And yet..... not one of those flights actually had the cheapest ticket available exactly 53 days out.

[iancal]

How my days out is never part of our decision.

 

We get an understanding of the fares and the routings. We recognize a good fare when it hits and we snap it up. We don't care if the fares subsequently go lower because we are happy with our deal. If you wait around for the lowest air fare chances are you will either be staying home or paying top dollar.

 

When going to Europe we will often do an open jaw. If we see a very attractive flight to , say Lisbon, when we wa nf to go to Rome we then take a look at low cost European airlines between those cities. More than once bargain airfare has saved us enough money to have a few days to explore a new city or area. Got a gear weekend in Paris this past Oct, by doing this,

Edited September 23, 2016 by iancal

[waterbug123]

How my days out is never part of our decision.

 

We get an understanding of the fares and the routings. We recognize a good fare when it hits and we snap it up. We don't care if the fares subsequently go lower because we are happy with our deal. If you wait around for the lowest air fare chances are you will either be staying home or paying top dollar.

 

When going to Europe we will often do an open jaw. If we see a very attractive flight to , say Lisbon, when we wa nf to go to Rome we then take a look at low cost European airlines between those cities. More than once bargain airfare has saved us enough money to have a few days to explore a new city or area. Got a gear weekend in Paris this past Oct, by doing this,

 

So true. Over and over again we see posts along the lines of "I know I should have booked when I saw airfare for such and such, but I didn't and now it's a lot higher and what should I do......"

 

Regarding the 2nd part of your post, in addition to European low cost carriers, trains are a very viable options for moving around within Europe, and something else to consider if you can find a cheap way to get anywhere in Europe to begin with.

[iancal]

We are starting to plan a winter trip now. We start with destination, destination alternatives. Then we look at airlines and airline routings. After that we get an idea of what the high and low season fares may look like. End of job.

 

The next part is waiting for the right routing/right airline/right fare to pop up on our screen. This is exactly how we buy our cruises. Absolutely zero loyalty to any airline or any cruise line.

 

We get an understanding of what a good value offer (to us) looks like and we are prepared to buy immediately. More than a few times in air and in cruise pricing low prices have only popped up for a day or so until the supply is exhausted or the sale is taken down. Once we buy, if non refundable, we don't bother looking again. We see little sense in crying over a subsequently lower fare or feeling good when the fares actually increase. Could never figure out why anyone would feel good about others having to pay more than they did for a given service/product.

[goldenrod]

If your booking using air miles for business class you can't wait! You must book as soon as possible that's usually 321 days out, there are a very limited number of seats for people using miles to book!

 

 

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[FlyerTalker]

If your booking using air miles for business class you can't wait! You must book as soon as possible that's usually 321 days out, there are a very limited number of seats for people using miles to book!

Wrong. FF seats are dynamically allocated so they do not all come on line at the first time schedules open.

 

Wrong....even then, schedules usually open at 330/331 days, not 321.