When is the best cruise price?

[kira5]

I've been watching a cruise for a couple of months now, departing Vancouver October 1st (RT Hawaii), that we are very interested in. It has been interesting to see how the prices have fluctuated over that time and with different sites. With the present promotion (Ready set sail) the price has gone up almost by that same discount. Unfortunately, with the exchange rate for CAD the price is going up also for that reason.

 

I think I've read before here that just after the final payment due date, (that's 60 days before sailing, right?) sales/promotions appear due to suddenly available cabins. Is that what happens?

[USN59-79]

I think it is more like 90 days. There is an online TA that advertises on Cruise Critic that has what they call a 90-day ticker. At that point the cruise line has a pretty good idea if the cruise is sold out or if there are going to be a bunch of cabins available and they will price it accordingly.

[bennybear]

I am finding prices changing like the wind! One cruise not HAL for October went up twice in one week over 600$. This is with no change in sales, not sure how much is the Canadian dollar.

I even had one other cruise change price during a phone call to,book a back to back. This dynamic pricing is driving me insane!

Fortunately, we saw one on the HAL top10 sailings that I put a hold on that jumped the next day by over $1000, but luckily I was able to lock that one down. That was about two months out. From what I have seen the sweet spot is around a month or more out, after that they can go up or down.

So bottom line, book when you can live with the price.

I read someone say that it is easier to live with not getting a further decrease compared to having to pay more than what you could have booked. I tend to agree with that.

[Krazy Kruizers]

You can also ask your TA to check prices without any promotions. Sometimes they are much cheaper.

[ExpatBride]

I live within driving distance of Copenhagen, so I don't have to deal with the airfare variable and can book last minute. In my experience, the cheapest price is somewhere between 2 months and sail date. The downside is that it's usually guarantee-only at that point. But if you're not picky about your cabin location, you can sometimes get a very deep discount. Last summer, I booked the Baltics itinerary on the Zuiderdam for $799/pp in an inside guarantee about 3 weeks out.

[jtl513]

Final payment day depends on the itinerary. For a HI round-trip of 16 days it is 75 days before sailing:

 

Grand World; Grand Voyages; any Segment of a Grand World or Grand Voyage; 29-50 day Hawaii, Tahiti & Marquesas; Incan Empires; Amazon Explorer; 30+ day Europe Transatlantic or any segment of a 30+ day Europe Transatlantic sailing; Africa Explorer and Far East Explorer

 

120 days before commencing travel

 

All Holiday; Australia; New Zealand; South Pacific; Asia; Prinsendam Europe; South America and Antarctica sailings

 

90 days before commencing travel

 

Caribbean; Panama Canal; Mexico; Canada & New England; Pacific Coastal; Pacific Northwest; Alaska and Alaska Land+Sea Journeys; Europe (except Prinsendam Europe, 30+ day Transatlantic and segments of 30+ day Transatlantic) and 27-day or less Hawaii sailings

 

75 days before commencing travel

[kira5]

Thanks for the useful information.

[Tampa Girl]

Final payment day depends on the itinerary. For a HI round-trip of 16 days it is 75 days before sailing:

 

Grand World; Grand Voyages; any Segment of a Grand World or Grand Voyage; 29-50 day Hawaii, Tahiti & Marquesas; Incan Empires; Amazon Explorer; 30+ day Europe Transatlantic or any segment of a 30+ day Europe Transatlantic sailing; Africa Explorer and Far East Explorer

 

120 days before commencing travel

 

All Holiday; Australia; New Zealand; South Pacific; Asia; Prinsendam Europe; South America and Antarctica sailings

 

90 days before commencing travel

 

Caribbean; Panama Canal; Mexico; Canada & New England; Pacific Coastal; Pacific Northwest; Alaska and Alaska Land+Sea Journeys; Europe (except Prinsendam Europe, 30+ day Transatlantic and segments of 30+ day Transatlantic) and 27-day or less Hawaii sailings

 

75 days before commencing travel

 

Your timelines are a little confusing. Something may have been miscopied. According to HAL, one can cancel without penalty until final payment is due. According to CPP, the Grand voyages and parts thereof are due within 120 days of sailing:

 

"Grand World; Grand Voyages; any Segment of a Grand World or Grand Voyage; 29-50 day Hawaii, Tahiti & Marquesas; Incan Empires; Amazon Explorer; 30+ day Europe Transatlantic or any segment of a 30+ day Europe Transatlantic sailing; Africa Explorer and Far East Explorer

120–91 days before commencing travel: an amount equal to deposit requirement;"

In other words, there is full refund if cancelled before the 120th day. After that, the refund decreases.

The time for payment is usually earlier if booked through a TA, instead of HAL so that the payment can clear in time to meet final payment date. At least, that has been the stated rationale.

For what it is worth, Carnival's 2016 Annual Report stated that the prices are higher during the third quarter because the demand is greater.

[EDLOS]

I've been watching a cruise for a couple of months now, departing Vancouver October 1st (RT Hawaii), that we are very interested in. It has been interesting to see how the prices have fluctuated over that time and with different sites. With the present promotion (Ready set sail) the price has gone up almost by that same discount. Unfortunately, with the exchange rate for CAD the price is going up also for that reason.

 

I think I've read before here that just after the final payment due date, (that's 60 days before sailing, right?) sales/promotions appear due to suddenly available cabins. Is that what happens?

I am a so called Bottom Feeder, and have found that HAL's 75 Day final payment date is the tipping point for reduced prices (after). I do believe they are using a computer program that tracks sales as pricing drives cabin sales . You can have what TA's call a "Flash" sale where you see a big drop in price on Monday and you wait til your spouse comes home, call back on Tuesday AM and not only is the "Flash" price gone, and the new price is higher than the before the Flash sale began because that "Flash" really sold a lot cabins.

I believe their Computer has occupancy percentages 50%, 60%, 70%, etc that raises and lowers the price point automatically.

I have won some and lost some waiting on this basis. i.e. Just booked two weeks ago a great price on a June Veendam Burmuda 7 day cruise and the price is quite a bit higher today.

[RocketMan275]

I am a so called Bottom Feeder, and have found that HAL's 75 Day final payment date is the tipping point for reduced prices (after). I do believe they are using a computer program that tracks sales as pricing drives cabin sales . You can have what TA's call a "Flash" sale where you see a big drop in price on Monday and you wait til your spouse comes home, call back on Tuesday AM and not only is the "Flash" price gone, and the new price is higher than the before the Flash sale began because that "Flash" really sold a lot cabins.

I believe their Computer has occupancy percentages 50%, 60%, 70%, etc that raises and lowers the price point automatically.

I have won some and lost some waiting on this basis. i.e. Just booked two weeks ago a great price on a June Veendam Burmuda 7 day cruise and the price is quite a bit higher today.

 

While this thread is specific to NCL, there is no real reason to believe the other cruise lines set their prices in a different manner.

 

Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2115592

[RuthC]

So bottom line, book when you can live with the price.

I read someone say that it is easier to live with not getting a further decrease compared to having to pay more than what you could have booked. I tend to agree with that.

I agree. There's a huge difference between "lowest" price and "best" price.

For me, the "best" price is when there's a price I can afford and am willing to pay for a cruise I want to take. After I book that, if I can refare for a lower price, that's just icing on the (chocolate) cake.

[ExpatBride]

While this thread is specific to NCL, there is no real reason to believe the other cruise lines set their prices in a different manner.

 

Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

 

This is a thread specific to HAL. NCL pricing works a bit differently in my experience.

[RocketMan275]

This is a thread specific to HAL. NCL pricing works a bit differently in my experience.

If you have a better explanation of how cruise lines set prices, you should share it with us.

[ExpatBride]

If you have a better explanation of how cruise lines set prices, you should share it with us.

 

When the topic comes up in the NCL forum, I will.

[EDLOS]

I am a so called Bottom Feeder, and have found that HAL's 75 Day final payment date is the tipping point for reduced prices (after). I do believe they are using a computer program that tracks sales as pricing drives cabin sales . You can have what TA's call a "Flash" sale where you see a big drop in price on Monday and you wait til your spouse comes home, call back on Tuesday AM and not only is the "Flash" price gone, and the new price is higher than the before the Flash sale began because that "Flash" really sold a lot cabins.

I believe their Computer has occupancy percentages 50%, 60%, 70%, etc that raises and lowers the price point automatically.

I have won some and lost some waiting on this basis. i.e. Just booked two weeks ago a great price on a June Veendam Burmuda 7 day cruise and the price is quite a bit higher today.

 

P.S. Forgot to say something really important to know re: "FLASH" pricing. You can book that price and have 24 Hours to cancel your booking without penalty in case you find out your spouse or Boss say's No Go ! or whatever.

[iancal]

The best price occurs when your target price and the cruise price intersect.

 

We more often book inside the final payment window which is often 75- 90 days depending on the cruise. Sometimes we book earlier but not often. And once we booked, cancelled a few days prior to final payment, and then rebooked when the price dropped inside the final payment window. Saved a good chunk of coin.

 

You cannot count on the prices going down. Quite often they go up. Plus, the prices can change within an 8 hour period. The trick is to know the prices, establish a target price, have and follow a few cruise options. Then, when and if your price hit, book immediately. And book with a TA who provides you with OBC (on board credits) equal to anywhere from 8-12 percent of the commissionable fare. You need to understand the fares. Sometimes the cruise line will bundle things like free drinks, etc into a fare to make it look more attractive than it really is. You need to place a value to you when this happens, not what the cruise line sells the unbundled option for.

 

Lots of last minute offers on 7 day cruises-most especially the Caribbean and Alaskan varieties. We tend to be a bit picky because we want a verandah. If you are OK with an inside or outside there are often some great deals to be had.

 

That is how we do it. Works for us but we are very flexible and can travel on short notice. We have booked inside the final payment window anywhere for 3 or 4 day prior to sailing but usually it is in the 45-60 day out window.

Edited May 1, 2017 by iancal

[EDLOS]

Another caveat to booking a great last minute fare is to get stung by the high cost of last minute air fares if you have to fly to the embarkation port. That 24 hour cancellation period gives you an opportunity to check on air fares to determine if you really have a bargain.

[bennybear]

Good to know about the 24 hour window. My frustration is when they change midday and mid phone call! Argghhh!

[kira5]

Changing every 8 hours? I can't think of another product that does that besides the price of gas. Seems unprofessional somehow. Or like an auction, except you don't hear the bidding.

 

The airfare issue does make it difficult. The cruise I'm looking at leaves from near home so no air ticket required. Now that we're retired we can be more flexible about dates compared to when we were tied into school holidays.

[bennybear]

I wish they would at least change them late at night. I get extremely frustrated with the constant changing. Three prices in less than a week. Changing during a phone call to book. This new dynamic pricing seems to be happening for car rentals, hotels, airlines as well as cruises. I found one good car rental and clicked to another page and within that click the original price disappeared completely.

Makes me long for the old days when the prices came out and the price was the price😉

So it seems now if you find a good price you have to grab it immediately if you can. Wonder how high the cancellations will be with this new model?

[iancal]

We have always been able to hold our last minute cruise reservation for 8 hours, sometimes 24. That is a very good point...check you air prices prior to pushing the buy button on your last minute cruise.

 

It has given us time to shop for airlines. However, we usually do both at the same time so even prior to buying the cruise we have a good idea of the air. Our experience on European flights over the past few years is that air prices 45-60 days our are as good or better than fares 3 or 4 months out. Same for SE Asia flights. But this changes constantly.

 

On our last Med cruise we were able to obtain a great fare PLUS we needed a one way ticket home. Cruise air was very attractive. Booking both was a big plus. We have not used cruise air very much. Typically we can get the same or better fares/routes on our own. We have only found them to be good on one ways across the oceans.

[Tampa Girl]

We have always been able to hold our last minute cruise reservation for 8 hours, sometimes 24. That is a very good point...check you air prices prior to pushing the buy button on your last minute cruise.

 

It has given us time to shop for airlines. However, we usually do both at the same time so even prior to buying the cruise we have a good idea of the air. Our experience on European flights over the past few years is that air prices 45-60 days our are as good or better than fares 3 or 4 months out. Same for SE Asia flights. But this changes constantly.

 

On our last Med cruise we were able to obtain a great fare PLUS we needed a one way ticket home. Cruise air was very attractive. Booking both was a big plus. We have not used cruise air very much. Typically we can get the same or better fares/routes on our own. We have only found them to be good on one ways across the oceans.

 

Helpful advice. What airlines have you found for good one-way international fares? We usually use FF miles, but those have to be booked months in advance if we want Business class. However, after our last 24-hour flight from Tampa to Rome via Miami and Heathrow, I am thinking Economy direct would be desirable.

[iancal]

We live in Canada. We have found very good one way prices on Transat. Last time we flew Toronto-Athens and then home Paris -Calgary on two one ways-both non stop. $850 CAD (about $625USD). We have also done consolidator one way fares to Istanbul (BA through London). TAP has or had one way fares, Icelandair is another.

 

The best return fare to SE Asia over the past three/four winters was booked on Delta exactly 10 days prior to departure. It was the first time we had been and we decided to flee our winter season at the last minute.

 

We usually do open jaws. They tend to be much better priced than one ways and they allow us to be more flexible with our travel plans.

[EDLOS]

Helpful advice. What airlines have you found for good one-way international fares? We usually use FF miles, but those have to be booked months in advance if we want Business class. However, after our last 24-hour flight from Tampa to Rome via Miami and Heathrow, I am thinking Economy direct would be desirable.

 

I flew one way last November from Boston to Barcelona to join Eurodam TA on Norwegian Airlines with a two hour layover at Gatwick for $254.20.

Don't know if Norwegian is available where you are ? . Currently I believe they starting to have flights from Providence RI to Ireland and Scotland for less than $99 each way.

I have found that it is sometimes cheaper to book One Ways than Round trips. So I shop both now !

Edited May 2, 2017 by EDLOS
More info

[*Miss G*]

I wish they would at least change them late at night. I get extremely frustrated with the constant changing. Three prices in less than a week. Changing during a phone call to book. This new dynamic pricing seems to be happening for car rentals, hotels, airlines as well as cruises. I found one good car rental and clicked to another page and within that click the original price disappeared completely.

Makes me long for the old days when the prices came out and the price was the price😉

So it seems now if you find a good price you have to grab it immediately if you can. Wonder how high the cancellations will be with this new model?

 

I've had that happen. I find if I clear my cookies and re-enter the search I can get the better pricing back.