new pricing structure= full ships

[fshagan]

13 hours ago, NickCanadian said:

Spoke to NCL corporate worker, selling out ship is no longer the #1 priority. It’s ensuring each room is sold at profit. Those who used to get dirt cheap last minute cruises don’t spend any money on board. It’s like those business class seats that some airlines like air canada will leave empty rather than dumping them onto the market at cheap prices which devalues the business class product. Some airlines will do anything to fill every single seat, all depend on managements direction which with the recent ceo change has obviously changed. 
 

a business teacher once said would you rather sell 4 beers at .99 cents or 1 beer at 3.99 if you are a business? 

 

I think this was actually stated in one of the quarterly earnings reports. They wanted to break the cycle of deep discounting after final payment. I think it was in 2018, so it's taken them a while to transition to it.

I still find discounted fares, but I suspect they are the exception now rather than the rule.

[fshagan]

19 hours ago, bones774 said:

That's a lot better, but can you get the $369 w/o add ons, I think you can do better on your own excursions and wait for ports to do internet.

 

Right, I am quoting the rate for a balcony where you can pick your cabin, not a sailaway. The port excursion credit and the internet perk do not add any service charges like dining and beverage packages do.

 

I've booked sailaways and gotten really great cabins and really bad cabins. It's not always a risk I want to take for $200.

[fshagan]

35 minutes ago, NickCanadian said:

I think NCL might be the first mass market cruise line to adopt this pricing strategy. Time will tell if it will work. As a shareholder, I hope it does. Prior to this, the mantra was always leave port full no matter the cost. Im sure Del Rio will discuss this on the next call.

 

RCL said they were going to stop discounting fares back in 2015. I don't know if they tried it and it failed, or if they are sticking to their guns and no longer doing the last minute discounts.

[bones774]

23 minutes ago, fshagan said:

 

RCL said they were going to stop discounting fares back in 2015. I don't know if they tried it and it failed, or if they are sticking to their guns and no longer doing the last minute discounts.

I've not seen last minute discounts on RCL at all, I'd like to see all of them discount.

[bones774]

29 minutes ago, fshagan said:

 

RCL said they were going to stop discounting fares back in 2015. I don't know if they tried it and it failed, or if they are sticking to their guns and no longer doing the last minute discounts.

i went back and read the RCL article. I understand the business decision to stop discounts but people saying they feel like idiots is not a good argument. There are people who buy clothes at end of season discount and food near expiration, it shouldn't affect anybody else. The last minute traveler is taking risks also, perhaps not getting onboard at all or a bad cabin location. You pay premium you get premium, pay less, get less.

[luv2kroooz]

14 hours ago, NickCanadian said:

Spoke to NCL corporate worker, selling out ship is no longer the #1 priority. It’s ensuring each room is sold at profit. Those who used to get dirt cheap last minute cruises don’t spend any money on board. It’s like those business class seats that some airlines like air canada will leave empty rather than dumping them onto the market at cheap prices which devalues the business class product. Some airlines will do anything to fill every single seat, all depend on managements direction which with the recent ceo change has obviously changed. 
 

a business teacher once said would you rather sell 4 beers at .99 cents or 1 beer at 3.99 if you are a business? 

I agree they should focus on selling every room at a profit. Historically, they've been unable to fill every cabin on a consistent basis which means they've been pricing too high. That trend seems to be continuing.  So I wonder how they are planning to increase demand? That's the real question, and raising prices is usually not the way to increase demand.

 

If they are unable fill ships, why not take $299 last minute bottom feeder fare plus the $15 DSC with zero onboard spend as opposed to $0 fare, $0 DSC and $0 onboard spend?

 

If I were NCL, I'd be setting advance fares at profitable, but reasonable, levels as opposed to trying to sell at above market rates in advance and then dumping cabins. This model ought to give them profitability while maximizing their chances of having a body in every cabin.

[bones774]

In addition to all the above, a lot of the last minute buyers are solo travelers and the higher prices along with the near elimination of the solo premium discount means the prices are outrageous and not affordable or worthwhile for solos. This will eliminate a whole class if travelers.

[AtlantaCruiser72]

Frank DelRio is a finance guy first and foremost.  He and the bean conters at NCLH have looked very closely at cruise fares and their relation to ancillary spending, etc to determine at what point a consumer ceases to be profitable.  He has stated in the past he would rather leave cabins empty rather than filling them with unprofitable consumers.  At what point they have to break that rule and discount.

[mking8288]

On the recent Gem Panama crossing, I think it was Turtles06 that commented that the ship was sailing (almost) full with about 2,300 passengers only. 

 

Gem has a total of 1197 staterooms for 2394 passengers (max capacity is 2873 guests) per Google lookup.  A less crowded ship is fine as long as crew staffing is maintained for better ratios.  Norwegian ships used to sail well above doubled occupancy, time will tell if this new strategy is good or not. 

 

DW commented that there seemed to be fewer crews working the MDR and buffet last month, just before the Christmas holidays ... don't know.  But, perhaps NCL released some of the crew for their vacation/time-off in between contracts and/or shuffling them to different ships, easily done at their Miami port.  It's now a quick & simple evening turndown services for the room stewards ... no ice buckets to refill or towel animals to fold (except by request only ... for our convenience, of course) - eco.friendly,   Pretty soon, no more mini toiletries.  Almost forgot, no beach towels to check & exchange in the cabins. 

 

Well, it's a good thing NCL pulled the Joy out of the China market last year.  Analysts forecasting ahead, that capacity with the new ships in the pipelines could exceed demand - maybe, they believed otherwise and found the magic. 

[JamieLogical]

I am sailing on the Bliss out of NYC on March 22. I have been tracking inventory on the sailing since I originally booked back at the end of November. At that time, I paid $699 per person base fare for my angled BA balcony. My parents booked at the same time and paid $629 for a guarantee BF (ended up in a BC). At that time, there were at least 636 rooms available (site I use shows a max of 100 in any given category). Since that time, the prices went up and up and up and topped out a while back at $1069 for a BA and $999 for a BF. The thing that is surprising to me is that since the prices hit that peak, inventory has barely moved AT ALL, yet the prices have not come back down. Since the first of January, inventory went from 511 rooms to 421 rooms. That's an average of 3.33 rooms per day. But it's worse when you look at the last week, when inventory went from 440 to 421. That's only 2.7 rooms per day and in the past 4 days, only 4 rooms have sold, so down to only 1 per day! With only 55 days to go before sailing, the math isn't looking good for NCL to sell those 421 rooms!

 

I won't complain if the ship doesn't sail full. But even with the logic of no last-minute discounts so they don't sell rooms at a loss, you would think they could AT LEAST take prices back down to near what we paid back in November. Presumably NCL wasn't selling rooms at a loss at that point...

Edited January 27, 2020 by JamieLogical

[NickCanadian]

9 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

I am sailing on the Bliss out of NYC on March 22. I have been tracking inventory on the sailing since I originally booked back at the end of November. At that time, I paid $699 per person base fare for my angled BA balcony. My parents booked at the same time and paid $629 for a guarantee BF (ended up in a BC). At that time, there were at least 636 rooms available (site I use shows a max of 100 in any given category). Since that time, the prices went up and up and up and topped out a while back at $1069 for a BA and $999 for a BF. The thing that is surprising to me is that since the prices hit that peak, inventory has barely moved AT ALL, yet the prices have not come back down. Since the first of January, inventory went from 511 rooms to 421 rooms. That's an average of 3.33 rooms per day. But it's worse when you look at the last week, when inventory went from 440 to 421. That's only 2.7 rooms per day and in the past 4 days, only 4 rooms have sold, so down to only 1 per day! With only 55 days to go before sailing, the math isn't looking good for NCL to sell those 421 rooms!

 

I won't complain if the ship doesn't sail full. But even with the logic of no last-minute discounts so they don't sell rooms at a loss, you would think they could AT LEAST take prices back down to near what we paid back in November. Presumably NCL wasn't selling rooms at a loss at that point...

At $699 on double occupancy, I would bet that is almost a break even price. Based on the 2018 results, NCLH carries 2.795 million passengers with net income of about 954 million. That is a profit of only $300+ per passenger. 

 

[WestfieldTraveler]

On my upcoming bliss 14 day nyc cruise, the BA category dropped $650 pp between final payment date and one month later when I was able to beg (they were just offering upgrades) a $325 obc for the cabin. Then the price went up for about another month to above what I paid until sellout. All the balcony and mini suite categories dipped as well.

 

Next time I might just wait to book..

 

 

[April42749]

7 hours ago, WestfieldTraveler said:

On my upcoming bliss 14 day nyc cruise, the BA category dropped $650 pp between final payment date and one month later when I was able to beg (they were just offering upgrades) a $325 obc for the cabin. Then the price went up for about another month to above what I paid until sellout. All the balcony and mini suite categories dipped as well.

 

Next time I might just wait to book..

 

 

Are you talking about the 2/2 sailing?

I was on this sailing (the Escape) last year.  I booked about a month in advance and probably paid around $2500 for a balcony sail-away.  And it went down after that.  I just checked about this year's sailing (after being unavailable for a few weeks) and there are now lots of cabins available.  The sail-away balcony is $4500!

I love cruising; DH not so much...but I could always convince him because of "the price" vs that of a land vacation.  It looks like land vacations may be in my future.

[bones774]

18 minutes ago, April42749 said:

Are you talking about the 2/2 sailing?

I was on this sailing (the Escape) last year.  I booked about a month in advance and probably paid around $2500 for a balcony sail-away.  And it went down after that.  I just checked about this year's sailing (after being unavailable for a few weeks) and there are now lots of cabins available.  The sail-away balcony is $4500!

I love cruising; DH not so much...but I could always convince him because of "the price" vs that of a land vacation.  It looks like land vacations may be in my future.

I'm watching this cruise, price is ridiculous, rather go to Celebrity or other high end line at that price point. Where do you "see" all these empty cabins? Can you disclose on this site?

I think this sailing is a hard sell, February vacation? 2 weeks? cold NY port sailaway and return, possible storm this Sunday and Super bowl weekend. Big ship to fill, crazy prices.

[kahoosbt]

19 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

At that time, there were at least 636 rooms available (site I use shows a max of 100 in any given category).

 

I know links are not supposed to be shared here, but would you be willing to post a disguised link, hint, or some other info that could be used to find this site? Or send me a direct message with the info? If so, I would really appreciate it. I have done quite a bit of searching and have only been able to find sites that list ~15 available cabins per category. 

 

Thanks!

[onetimearoundtheworld]

Just because 800 cabin numbers are open to select doesn't mean that 800 cabins are available. The time to observe like that is long over since their guarantee/upgrade/assignment algorithms in the background.

[bones774]

4 minutes ago, onetimearoundtheworld said:

Just because 800 cabin numbers are open to select doesn't mean that 800 cabins are available. The time to observe like that is long over since their guarantee/upgrade/assignment algorithms in the background.

there still must be a significant number of empty cabins allowing them to jockey pax between different categories

[WestfieldTraveler]

For the 2/2 sailing they have been “sold out” for weeks, and aside from the occasional price tracker email, the only cabin listing I have seen was a post by somebody from Casinos at Sea. Personally, I think they just reduced the price too low to sell out early, and then as cabins become available they just jack up the price to take advantage of whatever demand is there.

[bones774]

9 minutes ago, WestfieldTraveler said:

For the 2/2 sailing they have been “sold out” for weeks, and aside from the occasional price tracker email, the only cabin listing I have seen was a post by somebody from Casinos at Sea. Personally, I think they just reduced the price too low to sell out early, and then as cabins become available they just jack up the price to take advantage of whatever demand is there.

Yes, they say "sold out" but I don't believe it. If you've been here a long time you know that NCL has been selling cabins until just before sail date for years, and at deep discount, rarely advertising sold out. Now they want us to believe that one of their biggest ships has been sold out for months for an extended cold weather vacation out of NY at sky high prices???

PS- you do see that for 2 days now there is availability. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by bones774

[WestfieldTraveler]

Yeah, personally I found it hard to believe too, including the steep price reduction that I looked at with envy booking over a year in advance. But I have not seen even a few cabins listed when I check, so I’m just wondering where they are hiding them. Maybe for a lot of people over-bidding for upgrades?

[April42749]

1 hour ago, bones774 said:

I'm watching this cruise, price is ridiculous, rather go to Celebrity or other high end line at that price point. Where do you "see" all these empty cabins? Can you disclose on this site?

I think this sailing is a hard sell, February vacation? 2 weeks? cold NY port sailaway and return, possible storm this Sunday and Super bowl weekend. Big ship to fill, crazy prices.

About 2 minutes ago there were specific balcony cabins available.  Then I went to see what was available for OV...and suddenly everything is "sold out".

Maybe last minute cruisers will to overpay...or newbies not knowing that they are overpaying.

[bones774]

15 minutes ago, WestfieldTraveler said:

Yeah, personally I found it hard to believe too, including the steep price reduction that I looked at with envy booking over a year in advance. But I have not seen even a few cabins listed when I check, so I’m just wondering where they are hiding them. Maybe for a lot of people over-bidding for upgrades?

that other online t/a has them listed, plus i'll bet call NCL and see what they have.

[bones774]

3 minutes ago, April42749 said:

About 2 minutes ago there were specific balcony cabins available.  Then I went to see what was available for OV...and suddenly everything is "sold out".

Maybe last minute cruisers will to overpay...or newbies not knowing that they are overpaying.

it's a game they are playing. 

 

[luv2kroooz]

27 minutes ago, bones774 said:

Yes, they say "sold out" but I don't believe it. If you've been here a long time you know that NCL has been selling cabins until just before sail date for years, and at deep discount, rarely advertising sold out. Now they want us to believe that one of their biggest ships has been sold out for months for an extended cold weather vacation out of NY at sky high prices???

PS- you do see that for 2 days now there is availability. 

I tend to agree with this. I have seen lots of examples where sailings show as sold out for a week or two and then a week before sailing inventory opens up.

[Bluewake]

We've also been frustrated at paying a certain price for a cruise on NCL, only to see the price drop precipitously after final payment. In fact, that very thing happened to us on a Panama Canal cruise this past fall.   Perhaps, as some posters have suggested, such deals are becoming the exception more than the rule.  However, I've seen this dynamic often enough that I intend to wait to see if there are any last minute deals to use the two cruise next vouchers I currently hold rather than booking well in advance as we normally do. 

 

I can understand that NCL may make a "business decision" not to discount because they don't want the message to "get out" that it's better to wait to book NCL...that could be detrimental to the brand and reduce profits if customers wait to book and pay lower fares.  However, what happens to the crew members' income in cases when a ship sails with less than a full set of passengers?  Wouldn't the crew receive less money for that cruise because there are fewer passengers paying the DSC?  Would NCL make  up the difference by supplementing the DSC pool shared by the crew when there are fewer passengers paying into that pool? Or, would NCL not care about the crews' income?