Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[pablo222]

5 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Read the previous posts, we were both googling diamond princess probably why we struggled to find it.

 

I did.   You could have simply let it pass, instead of jumping in and screaming 'fake news'.

 

 

[bluesea321]

1 minute ago, capriccio said:

Which would not be unexpected in the case of a passenger sharing a cabin with one of those initially identified passengers with the virus, correct? 

Yes.

[pablo222]

12 hours ago, kent9xxx1 said:

The rest of them will get it in a week or so thanks to people who think they are "experts" at virology and ventilation.  Good grief.  If I were those people, I would demand to get off the ship and they can quarantine me on land.  

 

Thank goodness that Princess executives, the japanese ministry of health, WHO, CDC, etc. don't have to rely on those pesky experts,

and can simply turn to cruise critic for advice.

 

[TNTLAMB]

1 minute ago, ed01106 said:

Yes I believe it will expose thousands.  Not thousands would necessarily catch the disease. The logistics of transporting, housing, feeding and securing that many people would be a massive undertaking that would put the Japanese people at much greater risk than leaving everyone on board.  Plus it would demand a huge amount of resources that might be needed else where.  E.g. the hazmat suits that bus drivers would be wearing.  

 

There is one major thing Princess should be doing to minimize risk of spread on the ship  — cease buying ingredients and preparing food on board.  They should buy prepared meals rather than risk a kitchen employee potentially infecting the entire ship.  But that is on Princess not Japan.

You probably should educate yourself on a couple of things that have been covered in multiple press releases. Starting with where the store are coming from and how they are being prepared.

[caribill]

21 minutes ago, npcl said:

 

Incubation time is listed as 2-14 days with 14 being a max, have not seen a median published.  If they collect data on each patient of when they first developed symptoms it would add some nice data to establish at least a good range for median.

 

 

 

The scary thing is that at least two patients tested positive for the virus without presenting any symptoms. One of those later had additional testing and was shown not to have the virus after all.

 

So:

a) You can be symptomless and still have the virus

b) You can be tested and have a false positive result.

c) You can probably be tested and have a false negative response

[npcl]

Just now, bluesea321 said:

 

The so called "one" left the ship 16 days ago. If the max is 14 days then everyone directly infected by the "one" is already beyond their 14 days. So either the 14 days max is not really the max or there has been contamination from pax to pax.

There certainly has been pax to pax transmission prior to quarantine. That is why quarantine is scheduled to end on the 19. Due to the expectation that transmission has been taking place between passengers right up until quarantine started.  I don't think anyone has said that there has not been. The incubation time of 2 -14 days would clearly indicate that.  Would be interesting to see when each patient first started manifesting any symptoms because that could provide more data indicting the median incubation time.  

 

It would actually very logical to assume that out of all of the people on the ship that have gotten infected the most would have gotten infected on the day before quarantine started. So starting with Day two of the quarantine (Feb 6) you could have symptoms manifest for anyone that contracted the virus from Jan 23 to Feb  4, 

Feb 7   Jan 24 - Feb 4

Feb 8   Jan 25 - Feb 4 Jan 25 is the day the individual from Hong Kong left the ship

Feb 9   Jan 26 - Feb 4

Feb 10   Jan 27 - Feb 4

Feb 11   Jan 28 - Feb 4

 

and so on up until 

Feb 18 

 

[Grburkart]

1 hour ago, kent9xxx1 said:

Did thousands of additional people get infected on land when handling all their land based cases? 
You think the bus driver receive french kiss from the passengers in lieu of fare?  Even so, this is hyperbole at best.  Thousands?  Lol. 

What kind of condescending remark is that? You better think before you comment. The poster is not wrong. 
 

Glenn

[npcl]

6 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Yes I believe it will expose thousands.  Not thousands would necessarily catch the disease. The logistics of transporting, housing, feeding and securing that many people would be a massive undertaking that would put the Japanese people at much greater risk than leaving everyone on board.  Plus it would demand a huge amount of resources that might be needed else where.  E.g. the hazmat suits that bus drivers would be wearing.  

 

There is one major thing Princess should be doing to minimize risk of spread on the ship  — cease buying ingredients and preparing food on board.  They should buy prepared meals rather than risk a kitchen employee potentially infecting the entire ship.  But that is on Princess not Japan.

The key problem is where do you put 3000 in quarantine where you can keep them somewhat isolated.

 

If you look at the stories about the US quarantine locations, the people are kept separate rooms, but they can go outside and they do eat in a common facility. So far less isolation than on the cruise ship.  Of course those quarantines are a precaution, not a situation where there a known cases in the population.  They would require more capacity than all of the currently identified US locations.

[npcl]

6 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

The scary thing is that at least two patients tested positive for the virus without presenting any symptoms. One of those later had additional testing and was shown not to have the virus after all.

 

So:

a) You can be symptomless and still have the virus

b) You can be tested and have a false positive result.

c) You can probably be tested and have a false negative response

As they say with the tests they are used in conjunction with clinical observation. Data does show that one can have the virus when showing no symptoms (or atleast not symptoms one would associate with a URI such as the backache later considered a symptom in the case of the original german case of transfer without symptoms.)  So in this case I would wager more on the test than the lack of symptoms.

 

If one is early in the incubation period the odds of a test not detecting the presence is rather high.  Later on, after the virus has multiplied considerably, less so.  With tests of this type you can have swabs taken at individual locations in the mount and throat and have show negative and some show positive.  Reason why when they take the sample they do not just take them from a single spot.

[kent9xxx1]

13 minutes ago, pablo222 said:

 

Thank goodness that Princess executives, the japanese ministry of health, WHO, CDC, etc. don't have to rely on those pesky experts,

and can simply turn to cruise critic for advice.

 

yup, thanks to them 135 are now infected and no slowing down.  Highest concentration of infected cases outside of china.

 

look, you can put your head in the sand all you want.  Quarantine on land is better than on the damn ship.  This is very simple.  

[kent9xxx1]

9 minutes ago, Grburkart said:

What kind of condescending remark is that? You better think before you comment. The poster is not wrong. 
 

Glenn

not wrong?  Did thousands get exposed when handling the cases on land?  Did they all go into quarantine because they handled them?  

[ed01106]

2 minutes ago, npcl said:

The key problem is where do you put 3000 in quarantine where you can keep them somewhat isolated.

 

If you look at the stories about the US quarantine locations, the people are kept separate rooms, but they can go outside and they do eat in a common facility. So far less isolation than on the cruise ship.  Of course those quarantines are a precaution, not a situation where there a known cases in the population.  They would require more capacity than all of the currently identified US locations.

Not one of the “get them off the boat “ posters have named a single location capable of handling this many people.  

 

Big differences with USA and Japan.....

 

The planes flew directly to bases in low populated areas.  No such areas exist in Japan that would be accessible from a port unless you want dump them some place like Hashima island.

[npcl]

23 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

The so called "one" left the ship 16 days ago. If the max is 14 days then everyone directly infected by the "one" is already beyond their 14 days. So either the 14 days max is not really the max or there has been contamination from pax to pax.

Note when I said coming from that one I meant that all of the cases can be traced back to the single source, not that he directly infected all of the individuals, but instead all of the those currently infected, may have caught it from other passengers, but when traced back the source of the infection would have started with that passenger that has been identified.  The source if the infection tree o to speak.

[TNTLAMB]

Not that it adds anything to the conversation beyond being interesting. But there were previously 7 known Corona Viruses that effected humans 4 of which are directly related to the "common Cold" two others are rather familiar: MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Physical Control (exactly what is going on now) is what brought those two under control. As result Only two patients in the U.S. have ever tested positive for MERS-CoV  infection which has only ever infected 2 US citizens. This isn't the "experts" first Rodeo.The Wuhan Corona Virus has several ways to go. While its fun to speculate here, these guys have it.  Most likely iThe Wuhan Version will either become seasonal and/or mutate to a different form. Things have changed rapidly in the vaccine world.  It sounds as if there will be a vaccine in Stage 1 trials within 3 mos. - a process that used to take 5+ years.

Edited February 10, 2020 by TNTLAMB

[Kmkub]

2 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

yup, thanks to them 135 are now infected and no slowing down.  Highest concentration of infected cases outside of china.

 

look, you can put your head in the sand all you want.  Quarantine on land is better than on the damn ship.  This is very simple.  

I think it's harder to contain breathable air on land. Since the cabins don't share oxygen, it seems to me this is a great option. In any other type of facility they could come up with, everyone would need their own oxygen tent. That sounds horrid.

[npcl]

Just now, kent9xxx1 said:

not wrong?  Did thousands get exposed when handling the cases on land?  Did they all go into quarantine because they handled them?  

Just how many confirmed cases have been identified in the land based quarantines.  Those quarantines were a preventive measure in case one of them were infected.  In the case of the cruise ship there were already confirmed cases. 

[kent9xxx1]

1 minute ago, ed01106 said:

Not one of the “get them off the boat “ posters have named a single location capable of handling this many people.  

 

Big differences with USA and Japan.....

 

The planes flew directly to bases in low populated areas.  No such areas exist in Japan that would be accessible from a port unless you want dump them some place like Hashima island.

China had pop up hospital in a few days.  Japan handled hundred of thousands people during the tsunami in a few days.  Yes, they can set up a base in yokohama.  Or hospital around there.  

[kent9xxx1]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

Just how many confirmed cases have been identified in the land based quarantines.  Those quarantines were a preventive measure in case one of them were infected.  In the case of the cruise ship there were already confirmed cases. 

not confirmed.  They only confirmed a few days after.  

[npcl]

3 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

not confirmed.  They only confirmed a few days after.  

They did know that there was a person that had been on board from Jan 20 -Jan 25 that was confirmed when they left the ship on Jan 25.  Thus they knew the virus was in the population on board.

 

But again how many that have flown into the land based quarantines have developed the illness?  Basically if they had the illness they did not even make it to quarantine.

Edited February 10, 2020 by npcl

[ed01106]

 

6 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

China had pop up hospital in a few days.  Japan handled hundred of thousands people during the tsunami in a few days.  Yes, they can set up a base in yokohama.  Or hospital around there.  

Ten days.  Quarantine on ship scheduled to last 14.  So build a hospital to move them for four days.  Really? 

Edited February 10, 2020 by ed01106

[kearney]

1 hour ago, Psoque said:

Sorry if this has been discussed already, but I haven't been following this thread as closely.  I have one question that has never been made clear in news reports that I have read.  This is in regard to this "80 yo male passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong" who ended up testing positive for the virus.  I thought this was a round-trip Yokohama cruise.  Did this passenger disembark because he was feeling ill?  Or was this a planned "half cruise" for him and his travel companions?

 

Also, how many people disembark/embark in Hong Kong?  There is very little information about that in the news also.  I am just wondering if this "80 yo male passenger" was not the only person who (unintentionally, of course) brought the virus to the ship.  I just can't imagine how one passenger can infect this many people, especially when the estimated R0 of this 2019-nCoV is much lower than that of the measles virus.  I guess it is also possible that not all of the passengers who already tested positive received the virus from "patient zero" directly.

 

As a physician and a scientist with family members in Japan, I am very curious about this.

 

However, I feel very bad for those who are stuck on Diamond Princess, and I also wish those who are sick from the virus a quick an uneventful recovery.

Early on I saw an article about the situation on Diamond. The timeline they had was that the elderly man visited Mainland China for a 'few hours' on Jan 10. On Jan 17 they flew to Tokyo... on the 19th he developed a cough... On Jan 20th he boarded the ship. On Jan 25th he got off the ship.... he saw a doctor on Jan 30th... Feb 3rd they quarantined the ship. So it appears that he was in possible contact with passengers from Jan 20th until the 25th. I can not recall when the first 10 were diagnosed or at least suspected of having the virus... I think it may have been on the 3rd. So that places exposure with 9 and 14 days.  Now I have read some pieces with suggest that someone who is asymptomatic can also spread the diease... and another piece that suggest an exposure of as little as 15 seconds to someone who is symptomatic.... Now both are anecdotal and hardly peer reviewed... but with the Chinese being... somewhat obtuse as to the true story... data and rumors fill the void. I have to say I am concerned for Dave and Sally on the Diamond Princess who seem to have developed a cough... since that is how it started with the elderly gentleman. I hope that given his underlying conditions that they test them both.

[npcl]

10 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

China had pop up hospital in a few days.  Japan handled hundred of thousands people during the tsunami in a few days.  Yes, they can set up a base in yokohama.  Or hospital around there.  

The tsunami victims were not in quarantine.  But if you want Japan to set up a tent city, kind of like a refugee camp and let all of them off the ship to that, I am quite sure that they could do it.  Not a good idea but they could do it.

Edited February 10, 2020 by npcl

[kent9xxx1]

30 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

There is one major thing Princess should be doing to minimize risk of spread on the ship  — cease buying ingredients and preparing food on board.  They should buy prepared meals rather than risk a kitchen employee potentially infecting the entire ship.  But that is on Princess not Japan.

 

This, I totally agree.  There's no reason why the crew should continue to prep food and potentially spread the virus.  

[TNTLAMB]

The japanese are supplying the stores.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by TNTLAMB

[TNTLAMB]

5 minutes ago, npcl said:

The tsunami victims were not in quarantine.  But if you want Japan to set up a tent city, kind of like a refugee camp and let all of them off the ship to that, I am quite sure that they could do it.  Not a good idea but they could do it.

 None of which would be as comfortable as where they are now and open wards such as the chines ospital not as safe.