Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[andrewsjerrypat]

Does anyone know to get onto David Abel's FB page?.

[oskidunker]

Click follow

[cruisetimeusa]

Here is David's facebook page:  https://www.facebook.com/david.abel.75

[bluesea321]

23 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

"one single carrier" you must be privy to some exceptional scientific information....that is simply not true....even the experts just don't know.

 

You are absolutely right, there are many assumptions on this thread. Here are some facts:

 

1) The Diamond left Yokohama on Jan 20. It docked on Hong Kong on Jan 25 where the "original" infected passenger disembarked. "The ship was put under quarantine soon after its return on Feb. 3 after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong was confirmed to have the pneumonia-causing virus."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/10/national/japan-test-all-passengers-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus/#.XkGMORNKjPA

 

2) Count the days....  the pax who is blamed for the epidemic left the ship on Jan 25, 16 days ago <<<

 

3) 16 days since he left the ship so a) the 14 day incubation time frame is wrong or b) some of the new cases were transmitted on the ship, i.e., those that were originally infected by the Hong Kong pax are now beyond their 14 day incubation period.

 

4) As an Australian CC member posted yesterday, the ship "quarantine" is a to prevent the spread of the infection to Japan, not to prevent the infection within the ship. The so called "quarantine", while perhaps the best they can do on the ship, is by no means fully effective. If nothing else, the positive pressure of the ship's cabins should dispel that notion. Every time a cabin front door is opened (for food, linens, walks on deck, etc.) a certain volume of cabin air is transferred to the hallways. It is now well known that the virus is airborne (and that has been documented here by others).

 

5) Not a fact, just an opinion. It is about time that the Japanese Health Ministry test ALL passengers on the ship for the virus. Temperature checks, while helpful, are not the answer now.

 

From the NYT today:

"Passengers have grown increasingly fearful that the quarantine is putting them in jeopardy. The Japanese authorities have tested a few hundred people for the coronavirus who were believed to be at particular risk, but as the number of cases has risen, some passengers have pressed for everyone on board to be screened. For days, Japanese officials have said they do not have the capacity to test all 3,700 people on board. But on Sunday, the health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said his ministry needed to consider whether it could do so, while noting the challenges of carrying out such a large screening."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_NN_p_20200210&section=topNews&campaign_id=9&instance_id=15871&segment_id=21131&user_id=86bec0f074e55ec9c791238ff8d71f35&regi_id=106292473tion=topNews

 

 

[Kelownabccan]

Crew....any word on how they are doing????.......can not see this being very nice for them also....in dark cabins with 4 or more people but at least they are up and out working at things.....can not be very pleasant though....wonder how many of them have the virus as news only seems to worry about passengers...????

[rjmols]

A couple who run KHTS Radio in Santa Clarita are also on the ship and streaming live videos -  here is the link to their facebook page 

 

https://www.facebook.com/khtsradio/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARB8qsz0czalvIa1AwiWYGPT9weCc1Uo78lxSnM6O7JUYhF6rxjuGnR2t9oXYDpAUrsBq448yYfzxAr8&hc_ref=ARRP3zRI7gT6ICfb2_OS3aVxhXOsdRR5VtTqe4wo_NH3pcdrjpW97XzdmB2h08TCaf4&__xts__[0]=68.ARB8nWj0ZtHPnfdh7XWBxtt64k67Ijw5eWb29d4ZhkHlJCVm8ivDMlSZk95t8zoC2LQkn0ibe3g_3cdwt-MuUfiyhbMyypSvy7XS7hDgHBLHQY0ZO-PzBaPR20UeTz-2gnZM6ecNRVgGh_CA9JrkXX7exlsGOz-TeZv5YC5e_Cq6sV_H8XXNG0UbN5myW95jm4VDU863npA1hcMcrwyAQ_9qLuB-HxtnIHlsk9FV-8Whka7BpxVqyqfn16RicI5OjBarojgHUrbiPSNsIGwtM14VpX4difCK0v0Z-2C1bCz6mPMC5zmBkjzYFyHq1eoMmfxi5yv6RI1JlP0

[rjmols]

They are on the opposite side of the ship to Sally and David Abel and so can show videos of what is happening on dock side, scary to see all the ambulances lined up.

[Cruise_Christy]

1 hour ago, DCGuy64 said:

Our reservation with the Diamond Princess is more than a year away (April 2021), yet we're already a little concerned about a virus of this magnitude affecting the ship. I am going to assume that Princess will scrub every inch of that ship once the virus threat has abated, but it certainly is worrying, especially for passengers booked in the coming weeks and months.

 

It might put your mind at ease to read up on the flu and other virus' survival outside the human body. The incubation period is within a host only.

 

Normal viral flu's can survive 15 minutes in a soft surface like a tissue, up to a few hours as droplets in the air depending on the temperature and humidity, or 24 hours at maximum on a hard surface. We may not know the precise timing for this novel coronavirus but there is nothing to suggest its survival rate outside the human host is abnormal to other similar viral illnesses.

 

Yes, I'm sure they will very carefully sanitize everything - but if there are no hosts for the virus to live in, time is a very effective cleaner by itself.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Outerdog said:

 

We do not know that.

We do know that. Only one person who travelled on the ship and got off since the outbreak started has tested positive for the virus. He could not have gotten it on the ship or he would have shown symptoms later.

Edited February 10, 2020 by clskinsfan

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, kathy49 said:

"one single carrier" you must be privy to some exceptional scientific information....that is simply not true....even the experts just don't know.

See my above post.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

From a purely scientific perspective we are learning a lot about just how contagious this virus is. We will never know who transmitted the virus to who else on the ship. But we do know one single carrier is responsible for the entire outbreak on the ship. It is apparent that the virus is very contagious in confined settings. There was an outbreak in the original hospital in Wuhan where 40% of the cases were contracted in that hospital. The concerning thing about that outbreak was that people from different locations throughout the hospital contracted the disease. It was not confined to the area where the sick were being held. This virus is concerning in its ability to spread easily. 

We all have experienced cruises where at the start everyone is fine, but by the end of a 14 day cruise, half of the ship is coughing.

So we know that URI's are very transmittable on a cruise ship.

 

Here you have a demonstration where apparently 1 passenger  on a cruise ship for 5 days, followed by 10 days after they left, has infected a number cruisers.  It would be interesting if they collected data from each passenger on when they first developed symptoms.  That would provide some worthwhile data on median incubation time. Certainly with the number of cases so far the median time must be substantially below the max time of 14 days.

 

Bottom line is that in the closed environment during a normal cruise this virus transmits readily.  Just imagine if the passengers had not been quarantined and had all flown home.  The Diamond has as as many cases itself as the top five countries outside of China combined.

Edited February 10, 2020 by npcl

[Outerdog]

5 minutes ago, Cruise_Christy said:

We may not know the precise timing for this novel coronavirus but there is nothing to suggest its survival rate outside the human host is abnormal to other similar viral illnesses.

 

It has been reported that NCoV can survive 9 days.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/09/scientists-predict-coronavirus-may-live-for-up-to-nine-days-on-surfaces/#689109b714e3

 

A new analysis looking at data from different types of coronavirus has shown that many strains can live on surfaces such as glass, plastic or metal, for up to nine days.

[dog]

59 minutes ago, Psoque said:

Sorry if this has been discussed already, but I haven't been following this thread as closely.  I have one question that has never been made clear in news reports that I have read.  This is in regard to this "80 yo male passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong" who ended up testing positive for the virus.  I thought this was a round-trip Yokohama cruise.  Did this passenger disembark because he was feeling ill?  Or was this a planned "half cruise" for him and his travel companions?

 

Also, how many people disembark/embark in Hong Kong?  There is very little information about that in the news also.  I am just wondering if this "80 yo male passenger" was not the only person who (unintentionally, of course) brought the virus to the ship.  I just can't imagine how one passenger can infect this many people, especially when the estimated R0 of this 2019-nCoV is much lower than that of the measles virus.  I guess it is also possible that not all of the passengers who already tested positive received the virus from "patient zero" directly.

 

As a physician and a scientist with family members in Japan, I am very curious about this.

 

However, I feel very bad for those who are stuck on Diamond Princess, and I also wish those who are sick from the virus a quick an uneventful recovery.

I have not seen any answer to your question , will ask a few people who are on ship if they heard. My guess is they won’t know either. Sometimes people embark and disembark at different ports. So round trip for those coming from USA Canada etc but possibly different for Hong Kong. Not sure. And not all information is getting out from China. I suspect there are others with patient o who are being tested as well. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by dog

[npcl]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

From a purely scientific perspective we are learning a lot about just how contagious this virus is. We will never know who transmitted the virus to who else on the ship. But we do know one single carrier is responsible for the entire outbreak on the ship. It is apparent that the virus is very contagious in confined settings. There was an outbreak in the original hospital in Wuhan where 40% of the cases were contracted in that hospital. The concerning thing about that outbreak was that people from different locations throughout the hospital contracted the disease. It was not confined to the area where the sick were being held. This virus is concerning in its ability to spread easily. 

I would put it that the main purpose is to prevent spread outside of the current at risk population (i.e. those on the ship).  They could have easily protected the Japanese population by dumping all of the non-Japanese on planes and sent them to their home countries.

 

Japan is using a not insignificant percentage of their normal hospital isolation rooms for passengers from the Diamond.  I suspect that they have surpassed that in Tokyo and have sent some to other prefectures.

[Outerdog]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We do know that. Only one person who travelled on the ship and got off since the outbreak started has tested positive for the virus. He could not have gotten it on the ship or he would have shown symptoms later.

 

So nobody else could have gotten on the ship infected but asymptomatic and then remained there? Your assertion that there was but one single carrier, while wildly reported in the media, has not been (and likely cannot be) proven.

Edited February 10, 2020 by Outerdog

[dog]

Re: crew. Read article/ interview USA Today from crew member in Diamond. Working 13 hr day instead of 10 hours as waiter. Worry of contact with passengers. Some complaining. Think they are still on luxury cruise etc others very appreciative. He is isolated too in no crew lounge for breaks, meals eats by himself out on deck. He mentioned smoking out there too. Crew is working very hard and some have tested positive. Sorry I cannot post the link. 

[npcl]

46 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

You are absolutely right, there are many assumptions on this thread. Here are some facts:

 

1) The Diamond left Yokohama on Jan 20. It docked on Hong Kong on Jan 25 where the "original" infected passenger disembarked. "The ship was put under quarantine soon after its return on Feb. 3 after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong was confirmed to have the pneumonia-causing virus."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/10/national/japan-test-all-passengers-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus/#.XkGMORNKjPA

 

2) Count the days....  the pax who is blamed for the epidemic left the ship on Jan 25, 16 days ago <<<

 

3) 16 days since he left the ship so a) the 14 day incubation time frame is wrong or b) some of the new cases were transmitted on the ship, i.e., those that were originally infected by the Hong Kong pax are now beyond their 14 day incubation period.

 

4) As an Australian CC member posted yesterday, the ship "quarantine" is a to prevent the spread of the infection to Japan, not to prevent the infection within the ship. The so called "quarantine", while perhaps the best they can do on the ship, is by no means fully effective. If nothing else, the positive pressure of the ship's cabins should dispel that notion. Every time a cabin front door is opened (for food, linens, walks on deck, etc.) a certain volume of cabin air is transferred to the hallways. It is now well known that the virus is airborne (and that has been documented here by others).

 

5) Not a fact, just an opinion. It is about time that the Japanese Health Ministry test ALL passengers on the ship for the virus. Temperature checks, while helpful, are not the answer now.

 

From the NYT today:

"Passengers have grown increasingly fearful that the quarantine is putting them in jeopardy. The Japanese authorities have tested a few hundred people for the coronavirus who were believed to be at particular risk, but as the number of cases has risen, some passengers have pressed for everyone on board to be screened. For days, Japanese officials have said they do not have the capacity to test all 3,700 people on board. But on Sunday, the health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said his ministry needed to consider whether it could do so, while noting the challenges of carrying out such a large screening."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html?te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_NN_p_20200210&section=topNews&campaign_id=9&instance_id=15871&segment_id=21131&user_id=86bec0f074e55ec9c791238ff8d71f35&regi_id=106292473tion=topNews

 

 

Based upon the number of cases in Hong Kong at the time, and depending upon the travel history of those boarding (an unknown to us, but known to the Japanese) it is unlikely that there were additional infections during the port stop in Hong Kong.  Since they know those that tested positive I would suspect that if any had been to high risk areas prior to the cruise we would have heard something about it by now.

 

Incubation time is listed as 2-14 days with 14 being a max, have not seen a median published.  If they collect data on each patient of when they first developed symptoms it would add some nice data to establish at least a good range for median.

 

So while not absolutely proven, the odds very much suggest that all of these cases did come from the one. They could prove it by genotyping the viruses from each patient and looking how similar they are.  Would make for a good paper?

Edited February 10, 2020 by npcl

[BrennerM]

2 minutes ago, dog said:

Crew is working very hard and some have tested positive.

 

I'm no expert, but I feel like there is a high likelihood that a small number of crew were infected near the beginning of this situation and if they were preparing and/or delivering food to passengers, this would be a vector for the virus to infect many more people.  Given the strict in-room quarantine in the early stages (before they let people out to walk the decks) it seems like crew>passenger is the most likely thing that caused a majority of these passenger infections.  Not sure we'll ever really know for sure though.  Seems clear that this disease is very contagious in close quarters.

[kathy49]

7 minutes ago, dog said:

Re: crew. Read article/ interview USA Today from crew member in Diamond. Working 13 hr day instead of 10 hours as waiter. Worry of contact with passengers. Some complaining. Think they are still on luxury cruise etc others very appreciative. He is isolated too in no crew lounge for breaks, meals eats by himself out on deck. He mentioned smoking out there too. Crew is working very hard and some have tested positive. Sorry I cannot post the link. 

Very interesting perspective...I can just imagine the demands of some of the passengers as this goes day after day....the close quarters for crew and then having to deliver meals  and some passengers taking them ...talking without masks. etc. bad situation.

[Psoque]

4 minutes ago, npcl said:

I would put it that the main purpose is to prevent spread outside of the current at risk population (i.e. those on the ship).  They could have easily protected the Japanese population by dumping all of the non-Japanese on planes and sent them to their home countries.

 

Japan is using a not insignificant percentage of their normal hospital isolation rooms for passengers from the Diamond.  I suspect that they have surpassed that in Tokyo and have sent some to other prefectures.

I agree with this also.  Japan is not doing this (quarantine of Diamond Princess) just to "defend its borders."  The Japanese government is doing its part in containing this virus as best it can so that this does not contribute to a truly worldwide epidemic.  May be I am extremely biased, but I think we are so lucky that this situation happened off the coast of Japan, instead of in other parts of world where on-shore medical/logistics infrastructure and infectious disease expertise is much more limited.  I hope there is a good chance they can confine the spread from this ship.  Another good news is that those isolated cases far from Wuhan (US, Europe, etc.) are not associated with extensive secondary spread (as far as we know).  Also, it is very encouraging that the death rates outsie of China is not replicating that of China.  There are a few possible reasons for this:  it is extremely possible that the death rate (those who died)/(those reported to have the disease) is grossly off in China, partly because they are too overwhelmed, etc. to count all who are affected.  Death numbers are a lot easy to count than finding all people who are infected by the virus, which appears to have a very mild prodrome.  This is really encouraging, especially for those who were identified as "infected" by a test.  Their chance of survival might be much higher than the numbers from China.

[npcl]

7 minutes ago, BrennerM said:

 

I'm no expert, but I feel like there is a high likelihood that a small number of crew were infected near the beginning of this situation and if they were preparing and/or delivering food to passengers, this would be a vector for the virus to infect many more people.  Given the strict in-room quarantine in the early stages (before they let people out to walk the decks) it seems like crew>passenger is the most likely thing that caused a majority of these passenger infections.  Not sure we'll ever really know for sure though.  Seems clear that this disease is very contagious in close quarters.

Again the quarantine only started on the 4th or 5th.  We are only halfway at best to the full incubation time 2-14 days. So all of these are mostly likely from before quarantine. Not absolutely certain, but still the cases would fit into that time frame. 

 

It is only if new cases develop after the quarantine window, or if they start ramping up at the end of the window that one could say that the quarantine has failed.  Unfortunately while there is data for the 2-14 day incubation time, there is no published data on the curve for cases manifesting within that period. If one were to, without actual data, apply a normal bell shape curve to the incubation window, we would be in the window of peak manifestation for the next couple of days.

 

Certainly it does show what happens in normal cruise ship operations if even 1 person gets on board with it. Not good for cruise lines if this gets lose in any real fashion outside of China.  The clusters in Singapore and France are rather concerning in that regard. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by npcl

[BrennerM]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

If one were to, without actual data, apply a normal bell shape curve to the incubation window, we would be in the window of peak manifestation for the next couple of days.

 

Yes, it will be interesting to see if net new cases on the ship start to decline by the end of this week.  I would imagine there are some epidemiologists that are watching this very closely!

[bluesea321]

9 minutes ago, npcl said:

Incubation time is listed as 2-14 days with 14 being a max, have not seen a median published.

So while not absolutely proven, the odds very much suggest that all of these cases did come from the one.

 

The so called "one" left the ship 16 days ago. If the max is 14 days then everyone directly infected by the "one" is already beyond their 14 days. So either the 14 days max is not really the max or there has been contamination from pax to pax.

[capriccio]

1 minute ago, bluesea321 said:

 

 So either the 14 days max is not really the max or there has been contamination from pax to pax.

Which would not be unexpected in the case of a passenger sharing a cabin with one of those initially identified passengers with the virus, correct?  We don't know since, as far as I know, that kind of information has not been released.

[ed01106]

1 hour ago, kent9xxx1 said:

Did I believe that statement?  The previous poster seemed to believe it will expose thousands.  Yeah, right.  
 

 

Yes I believe it will expose thousands.  Not thousands would necessarily catch the disease. The logistics of transporting, housing, feeding and securing that many people would be a massive undertaking that would put the Japanese people at much greater risk than leaving everyone on board.  Plus it would demand a huge amount of resources that might be needed else where.  E.g. the hazmat suits that bus drivers would be wearing.  

 

There is one major thing Princess should be doing to minimize risk of spread on the ship  — cease buying ingredients and preparing food on board.  They should buy prepared meals rather than risk a kitchen employee potentially infecting the entire ship.  But that is on Princess not Japan.