RCL Stock

[Biker19]

From their SEC filing yesterday:

 

"On July 29, 2024, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has priced its upsized private offering of $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The Notes are expected to be issued on or around August 12, 2024, subject to customary closing conditions.

 

The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Notes, together with borrowings under the Company’s revolving credit facilities, to redeem (i) all of its outstanding 9.250% Senior Notes due 2029 and (ii) all of its outstanding 8.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2029, which comprise its remaining secured indebtedness"

[firefly333]

12 month target upped to $189

 

 

[elcuchio24]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

12 month target upped to $189

 

 

 

Still love the whole cruise space. I feel like they have done a great job attracting younger clientele in their 20/30/40's and have a lot of runway there. Much of that has been due to the WOW factor or big ships that some dont care for, but overall feel great about the longevity of the industry as a whole and RCL is still my favorite stock of the ecosphere.

[Ocean Boy]

On 7/30/2024 at 10:30 AM, firefly333 said:

For those of you feeling like you are no longer royals target pax, its probably true. They are trying to attract newbies to cruises who spend more $$$. 

 

 

I don't think RCI is neglecting any demographic group. They know they need a mix to keep the ships full as well as nurture a new group that will become long term cruisers and take our place some day. Royal doesn't need to market to us. They need to focus their marketing toward developing Royal's future loyalists. That hardly means that they don't care about us or that they no longer want our business and would prefer we go elsewhere.

[A&L_Ont]

On 7/30/2024 at 7:48 AM, xpcdoojk said:

Laughter is not what I am looking for, Andrew!😉

When it’s installed you would be the first to know. 😂

[xpcdoojk]

Laughing with tears is even less what I want to hear from you.  I really want to visit Ontario, and K has never been to Montreal, and I keep promising to take her.  You are really making my life harder than it needs to be.  You know you want the FlowRider, and I know I want you to have a FlowRider.  Win Win!!!!  My Airstream will look great parked by your pool next summer.  Rodrhi is in intense dog training, and he might even be a respectful citizen by then.  

 

JC

[Billy Baltic]

On 7/31/2024 at 6:43 PM, Ocean Boy said:

That hardly means that they don't care about us or that they no longer want our business and would prefer we go elsewhere.

Of course they want the business but wanting it and doing enough to deserve it are two different things. 

[Engineroom Snipe]

The stock dropped about 5.5% today based on Market fear regarding unemployment application numbers.

 

These numbers have constantly been adjusted every month this year and not very accurate.

 

Everyone is on edge for the past two years waiting for the market to adjust.

 

I think they have over-reacted.

 

The market has been extremely volatile.

 

The drop is more in line with a fear of general correction/recession than any concrete business reason.

 

Investors' knee-jerk reaction of a potential recession with decreased travel and tourism as it is a discretionary expense was to sell anything travel related.

 

If RCI has record bookings into next year, this is something that will not affect them (and any other cruise line) until 2026.

 

[grandgeezer]

11 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

The stock dropped about 5.5% today based on Market fear regarding unemployment application numbers.

 

These numbers have constantly been adjusted every month this year and not very accurate.

 

Everyone is on edge for the past two years waiting for the market to adjust.

 

I think they have over-reacted.

 

The market has been extremely volatile.

 

The drop is more in line with a fear of general correction/recession than any concrete business reason.

 

Investors' knee-jerk reaction of a potential recession with decreased travel and tourism as it is a discretionary expense was to sell anything travel related.

 

If RCI has record bookings into next year, this is something that will not affect them (and any other cruise line) until 2026.

 

Bookings can be cancelled.

[firefly333]

Bookings beat top and bottom line, (travel). As long as travel is beating top and bottom and growing too soon to panic.

 

I hadnt heard it was specifically unemployment numbers though those were up. Just people are back to worrying about recession. Is the fed acting too late in sept. The one I wanted to buy more of later this month UPS held it's own most of the day. People retreated to the safety of a 5% dividend. Waiting on some treasuries to come due. Treasuries yield dropped today as people were buying safety. 

 

No matter which reason today was ugly. Good day to book a cruise.

[Engineroom Snipe]

1 minute ago, grandgeezer said:

Bookings can be cancelled.

Absolutely.

 

No argument.

 

That is the fear.

 

Will future travel bookings be affected?

 

So far, the people who can afford to book cruises have not shown any financial weakness.

 

That is the question.

 

If you build the ships, will they come?

 

So far, today, they are coming in record numbers but will "Will You Love Me Tomorrow?" (Shirelles, 1960).

 

[Engineroom Snipe]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

I hadnt heard it was specifically unemployment numbers though those were up.

 

This was it specifically. Unemployment numbers exceeded expectations which fed into the narrative that the FED was late to the table once again and chasing their tail.

 

They waited too long and might be one step behind once again.

 

Fear.

[firefly333]

3 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

This was it specifically. Unemployment numbers exceeded expectations which fed into the narrative that the FED was late to the table once again and chasing their tail.

 

They waited too long and might be one step behind once again.

 

Fear.

BKNG beat top and bottom but the forecast for next qtr not as rosy as hoped.

 

 

[bigeck]

$131 pre market

[firefly333]

44 minutes ago, bigeck said:

$131 pre market

Bid 131, ask 134 on my premarket. Be lucky to fill at 131 right now, such low float, but time to think where is the bottom of this sell off. Time to buy? Or does this sell off begat more selling. Are people on margin going to be forced to sell even more. Berkshire made news by paring his positions apple, Chevron. The employment numbers werent that bad. But we also have israel war. Buying opportunity? Or wait is the question. 

[Billy Baltic]

I have no expertise in this area but the scale of reaction to this would suggest to me it won’t be good for anything related to discretionary spending. 

[Engineroom Snipe]

Everyone reading too much into the unemployment figure this month.

 

Every single month for the past 18 months, it has been revised by a significant amount.

 

Because of the high evaluations, everyone has been waiting for a correction which is due but I think the market is over reacting. I worked in the exchange business in the early 1980s and much of this type of sell-off is always emotional. Harry on the floor sees Jack on the floor selling a specific stock. Harry does not know why Jack is selling the stock but he knows that Jack does not normally sell that amount of stock. Harry starts selling the stock Jack is selling and so it begins.

 

Add in the automatic computer trading and things get very volatile.

 

I play a long and steady game and try to not get emotional when things are very good or very bad.

 

That is when the money losing trades occur.

 

Just another cycle.

[firefly333]

5 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

That is when the money losing trades occur.

 

Just another cycle.

Or this is where money is made when others fear to buy. Knife is falling. Where to catch it. I'm looking at nvda this mornjng. 97 premarket. Where is the bottom. There will be forced selling if this continues. There are always those on margin. Japan sell off was like 12%. Its causing a world wide sell off all the uncertainty. I say the opposite this is where fortunes are made.

[Engineroom Snipe]

4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Or this is where money is made when others fear to buy. Knife is falling. Where to catch it. I'm looking at nvda this mornjng. 97 premarket. Where is the bottom. There will be forced selling if this continues. There are always those on margin. Japan sell off was like 12%. Its causing a world wide sell off all the uncertainty. I say the opposite this is where fortunes are made.

You are not trading out of fear. This does not apply to you.

 

It is like a professional gambler who has a rationale idea of the odds and knows when to fold  when things are not making money. He also does not get too jubilant on a good day knowing that there are always some bad hands in the future.

 

This is opposed to the addicted amateur gambler who believes that every loss is closer to a jackpot without admitting that the odds of winning any specific hand do not change just because you lost or won the last deal of the cards.

 

There will be many people selling out of stocks irrationally because they want to "keep their money safe." They are doomed to miss the upturn when it comes.

 

Only 25% of professional money managers beat the S&P running averages But 100% of the money managers want their management fees when the investments go up or down.

 

🤣

[firefly333]

This is also institutional selling. Not just some poor little day traders. Look at the size of this sell on nvda which closed friday 107 ish. Ask shows a 60,000 shares. That's not some little trader. 

 

NVDANVIDIA CORPORATION COM

$107.270.00 (0.00%)

At close: Aug 2, 2024, 4:00 PM ET

EXTENDED HOURS

$93.67-13.60 (-12.68%)

Bid x Size

$93.60 x 6,000

Ask x Size

$93.73 x 60,000

[bigeck]

4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Bid 131, ask 134 on my premarket. Be lucky to fill at 131 right now, such low float, but time to think where is the bottom of this sell off. Time to buy? Or does this sell off begat more selling. Are people on margin going to be forced to sell even more. Berkshire made news by paring his positions apple, Chevron. The employment numbers werent that bad. But we also have israel war. Buying opportunity? Or wait is the question. 

I bought 35 and will buy more if it drops

[bigeck]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

This is also institutional selling. Not just some poor little day traders. Look at the size of this sell on nvda which closed friday 107 ish. Ask shows a 60,000 shares. That's not some little trader. 

 

NVDANVIDIA CORPORATION COM

$107.270.00 (0.00%)

At close: Aug 2, 2024, 4:00 PM ET

EXTENDED HOURS

$93.67-13.60 (-12.68%)

Bid x Size

$93.60 x 6,000

Ask x Size

$93.73 x 60,000

I sold Nvidia at $125. Got lucky

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, bigeck said:

I sold Nvidia at $125. Got lucky

I mostly have dividend stocks, rcl being the exception. Got 500 nvda 92 and a little avgo 129. Time will tell long term if I made a mistake. I hear some talking CNBC head saying we have not hit a technical bottom. Could go lower. Then I've average down or buy more of something else. No one buys perfectly. I didnt own either one before the huge sell off at open. 

 

Good for you getting out at 125. Lol. Was in the 90s low at open. My brokerage filled me 92 even. Tomorrow we will know if I made a mistake. Or during earnings. I could sell right now at 100 and run! Hmmm. Rolling the dice and holding thru earnings.

[bigeck]

32 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I mostly have dividend stocks, rcl being the exception. Got 500 nvda 92 and a little avgo 129. Time will tell long term if I made a mistake. I hear some talking CNBC head saying we have not hit a technical bottom. Could go lower. Then I've average down or buy more of something else. No one buys perfectly. I didnt own either one before the huge sell off at open. 

 

Good for you getting out at 125. Lol. Was in the 90s low at open. My brokerage filled me 92 even. Tomorrow we will know if I made a mistake. Or during earnings. I could sell right now at 100 and run! Hmmm. Rolling the dice and holding thru earnings.

I have a few dividend ones. Mostly BMW. I'll buy more Nvidia when it bottoms out and starts rising again. Amd jumped a bit on Friday. Sold them on Friday night as well

[Baron Barracuda]

Weak ISM report last week followed by week employment numbers.  Unwinding of yen carry trade caused Japan to crash last night, down 12.5% in worst day since '87.  Europe down sharply today.  In a global rush to safety global investors will sell what is most liquid, US stocks.  RCL is a consumer discretionary stock which is an especially vulnerable segment when the US consumer slows their spending.  Bookings may be up but that's expected with the additions of Icon and Utopia.  Shortening many sailings to under 7 nights requires more reservations to keep ships sailing full.  RCL stock has shown good strength today in down market but still remain cautious and not inclined to rush into any purchases.