Oasis still coming to Bayonne??

[rimmit]

13 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

The latest financials I saw showed they drew down on 3.5  billion of lines of credit and with everything shutdown have a estimated cash burn rate off about 110 - 150 million a month. See analyst notes below.

 

Royal Caribbean price target lowered to $62 from $66 at Nomura Instinet 04/08 RCL Nomura Instinet analyst Harry Curtis lowered the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean (RCL) to $62 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Based on the analyst's new cash burn and recovery forecasts for the cruise industry through 2023, he believes that Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Carnival (CCL) have liquidity/borrowing capacity to survive "near-zero revenues" through Q1 of 2021. Curtis sees a low risk of bankruptcies for the group.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3068926

So about 10-12 months of liquidity as Q1 2021 is when they run out of cash which is what I stated.  It will be a close race to see who wins out.  Bankruptcy or the cruise line.  The bond rates are already impressively high for The cruise lines.  I imagine if they draw again (if they even can). Those rates will be credit card level.  We will see.

 

I sold my shares this Monday in all the cruiselines.  Went into oil.   Figure no matter what people need oil.   People don’t have to have cruises.
 

I may play the swings a little bit as I am up quite a bit from the shorting and swings thus far so have some room to play.

 

I hope they make it.  I love cruising as much as anyone, but the 25 percent possible return vs Total loss plus opportunity Cost of keeping my money there isn’t worth it to me.  Stock market is a fire sale and I feel pretty good Incan get a 25 percent return on the market ce my chances with the cruiselines. I doubt they will go bankrupt personally,  but for me it’s too risky for my personal taste.  

Edited April 19, 2020 by rimmit

[Boyetter2013]

5 minutes ago, st5310 said:

My two cents, if I may.  I had one cruise cancel--May 10 Oasis, but I have 3 more scheduled for July on the Adventure.  As some of you have pointed out, those sailings will likely be cancelled as well.  I do have one great fear in this, and that is the possibility of bankruptcy.

 

I did some crude calculations.  If most people (including me) take the refund, the cruise lines will be required to dig into their stash of emergency funds (if such a stash even exists).  Let's say that 20,000 booked passengers request refunds amounting to an average of $1,000 per person, the cruise line will be paying out $20 million... and those numbers are highly conservative; depending on how long the crisis endures, those numbers could easily exceed $100 million by year's end.  With enormous investments tied up in bigger and more expensive ships under construction and the loss of major revenue along with millions in outgoing expenses (refunds), cruise lines will be hard-pressed to stay fiscally sound.  I hope Royal Caribbean can weather this storm, but if bankruptcy happens, there will be no refunds for any of us.

 

Please tell me I'm wrong.

Best bet is to read the analyst recommendations on the stock. They have more detailed financial info and the experience to decipher it. Bankruptcy is always a possibility. Currently no analyst who covers the stock has it on a sell recommendation so they are seeing a very small to zero chance as of now of bankruptcy.

 

Analysts Recommendations

	current	1 Month Ago	3 Months Ago
BUY	10	11	N/A
OVERWEIGHT	0	1	N/A
HOLD	6	7	N/A
UNDERWEIGHT	1	0	N/A
SELL	0	0	N/A

[Boyetter2013]

3 minutes ago, rimmit said:

So about 10-12 months of liquidity as Q1 2021 is when they run out of cash which is what I stated.  It will be a close race to see who wins out.  Bankruptcy or the cruise line.  The bond rates are already impressively high for The cruise lines.  I imagine if they draw again (if they even can). Those rates will be credit card level.  We will see.

 

I sold my shares this Monday in all the cruiselines.  Went into oil.   Figure no matter what people need oil.   People don’t have to have cruises.
 

I may play the swings a little bit as I am up quite a bit from the shorting and swings thus far so have some room to play.

 

I hope they make it.  I love cruising as much as anyone, but the 25 percent possible return on investment plus opportunity Cost of keeping my money there isn’t worth it to me.  I doubt they will go bankrupt personally,  but for me it’s too risky for my personal taste.  

If you moved into oil be very conscious of the contango. Futures are currently trading significantly above spot.

[st5310]

Just now, Boyetter2013 said:

Best bet is to read the analyst recommendations on the stock. They have more detailed financial info and the experience to decipher it. Bankruptcy is always a possibility. Currently no analyst who covers the stock has it on a sell recommendation so they are seeing a very small to zero chance as of now of bankruptcy.

 

Analysts Recommendations

	current	1 Month Ago	3 Months Ago
BUY	10	11	N/A
OVERWEIGHT	0	1	N/A
HOLD	6	7	N/A
UNDERWEIGHT	1	0	N/A
SELL	0	0	N/A

Thank you for the reply, Boyetter2013.  You evidently have a better grasp of the analyses as they pertain to Royal stock.

[strathcona]

24 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

I saw lots of people using the exact same word, "gullible", when the market was cratering 6 weeks ago and I was buying. Gullible would be giving RCL an interest free loan on the hopes a ship sails. Giving RCL a loan at a guaranteed 25% rate of return is a use of capital with a significant upside to downside ratio. But hey, to each their own.

totally agree with booking in hope of cruising. Just not sure how they deal with the cancellation of a cruise booked with FCC 125%. Do they give you another FCC  at 125%. In the same context, hope people are buying your local restaurant gift certificates to help them survive this shutdown.  People should not be hoping for business to go under. This is people's livelihood. 

[Iamcruzin]

33 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

its the normal, no discount pricing. Like 8.99 for soda, 28.99 for refreshment range of pricing.

That's good they didn't spike it.

[Ocean Boy]

1 minute ago, strathcona said:

 People should not be hoping for business to go under. This is people's livelihood. 

Why would anyone hope that? I hope RCI survives and the future product is close to what I am use to.

[Boyetter2013]

2 minutes ago, st5310 said:

Thank you for the reply, Boyetter2013.  You evidently have a better grasp of the analyses as they pertain to Royal stock.

I'm not saying its a good or bad investment as a company. I was just commenting that based on my research the risk of bankruptcy today is low. They have a product/service they can use to generate cash flow (future bookings) to supplement their current cash reserves which are significant. This is a major advantage over say a restaurant chain who has its door shut. I'm not saying they wont go belly-up (they are adding debt to weather the storm), it is always a possibility and i definitely wouldn't book a $10k cruise right now but $1500 is within my risk tolerance zone.

[nemesees]

3 minutes ago, strathcona said:

totally agree with booking in hope of cruising. Just not sure how they deal with the cancellation of a cruise booked with FCC 125%. Do they give you another FCC  at 125%. In the same context, hope people are buying your local restaurant gift certificates to help them survive this shutdown.  People should not be hoping for business to go under. This is people's livelihood. 

I think I saw somewhere that it would be 125% of the rebooked cruise as long as that FCC is not placed into a OBC but things may have changed.

[jerseyjjs]

37 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

I saw lots of people using the exact same word, "gullible", when the market was cratering 6 weeks ago and I was buying. Gullible would be giving RCL an interest free loan on the hopes a ship sails. Giving RCL a loan at a guaranteed 25% rate of return is a use of capital with a significant upside to downside ratio. But hey, to each their own.

Good luck with that future sailing you book, that ACTUALLY sails off (most likely into 2021), that it's 25% or less than the total of the cruise that was cancelled.

[rimmit]

15 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

Best bet is to read the analyst recommendations on the stock. They have more detailed financial info and the experience to decipher it. Bankruptcy is always a possibility. Currently no analyst who covers the stock has it on a sell recommendation so they are seeing a very small to zero chance as of now of bankruptcy.

 

Analysts Recommendations

	current	1 Month Ago	3 Months Ago
BUY	10	11	N/A
OVERWEIGHT	0	1	N/A
HOLD	6	7	N/A
UNDERWEIGHT	1	0	N/A
SELL	0	0	N/A

If analysts were always right they’d all be billionaires.  

 

I agree the chance of bankruptcy is low,  but this industry has no bailouts and no revenue, and at this time enough cash to survive till Q1 2021 by analysts, and a business model that is incompatible with coronavirus.  That’s enough red flags for me.  Do I think bankruptcy will happen, no, but there is no company too big to fail.  I bought RCL back in 2009 and it’s done very well for me.  Didn’t sell at the peak but got out at $96 before the total free fall.  Not bad given I bought in Mar ‘09 For $6.
 

I really don’t think it will go bankrupt, but I can ride a much bigger wave in the future by getting my FCC back into cash and putting it into RCL stock if I so choose, and get Likely get a much bigger return then as well. Plus I get flexibility as to when I want to book, and not having a ton of restrictions.  We have two kids and we cant use their FCCs on a Kids sail free sailing,  which makes it hard for us to use.  

[Boyetter2013]

2 minutes ago, jerseyjjs said:

Good luck with that future sailing you book, that ACTUALLY sails off (most likely into 2021), that it's 25% or less than the total of the cruise that was cancelled.

it makes no difference what the cost of the next booking is. Its like you are trying to do math without using the order of operations. I paid x for a cruise. Cruise cancels and I get 1.25x. I now book cruise y. I am not getting 25% off the price of y. I am using 1.25x to pay for y. The fact that y might be higher than x doesn't change the fact that I have 25% more x than I initially started with. What if y is less than x?

[jbr5049]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Date?

9/20/2020

[Boyetter2013]

4 minutes ago, rimmit said:

If analysts were always right they’d all be billionaires.  

 

I agree the chance of bankruptcy is low,  but this industry has no bailouts and no revenue, and at this time enough cash to survive till Q1 2021 by analysts, and a business model that is incompatible with coronavirus.  That’s enough red flags for me.  Do I think bankruptcy will happen, no, but there is no company too big to fail.  I bought RCL back in 2009 and it’s done very well for me.  Didn’t sell at the peak but got out at $96 before the total free fall.  Not bad given I bought in Mar ‘09 For $6.
 

I really don’t think it will go bankrupt, but I can ride a much bigger wave in the future by getting my FCC back into cash and putting it into RCL stock if I so choose, and get Likely get a much bigger return then as well. Plus I get flexibility as to when I want to book, and not having a ton of restrictions.  We have two kids and we cant use their FCCs on a Kids sail free sailing,  which makes it hard for us to use.  

I totally get you. The truth is none of us know the future. I am certainly not looking to convince anyone of anything. To each our own. I was just responding to why my thoughts were what they are currently.

[jbr5049]

47 minutes ago, jptoz said:

No risk, no reward, paid $6k for a Aquatheater suite for 4. I know probably wont sail. Not gullible at all, but willing to roll the dice. 

I agree with your methodology completely, the reward is worth the risk of having someone hold your money for a little bit. Either you sail, You get your cash back, or you roll the money into a 25% gain in RCL credit.

 

Really no downside here. 

[jerseyjjs]

20 minutes ago, Boyetter2013 said:

it makes no difference what the cost of the next booking is. Its like you are trying to do math without using the order of operations. I paid x for a cruise. Cruise cancels and I get 1.25x. I now book cruise y. I am not getting 25% off the price of y. I am using 1.25x to pay for y. The fact that y might be higher than x doesn't change the fact that I have 25% more x than I initially started with. What if y is less than x?

 

I have a sailing booked for Oasis this Septemeber.  We booked two cat. 2D ocean view balconies at a Casino Royale rate, which was very inexpensive and worth the risk.  If we had booked them at the online rate, it would've been $2,583.06.

Priced the rates for the exact same sailing, exact same cabins for Sept. 2021, price is currently $4,148.90.  Is it guaranteed to be that high by then?.....no.   But it doesn't require a doctorate to grasp the pricing disparity.

[John&LaLa]

2 hours ago, Jimbo said:

For that 6 day itinerary you are still over paying. Port Canaveral and Coco Cay, really?

 

You never heard that the ship is the destination?  Plus Perfect Day is really popular and why the hate on PC. KSC is one of the best things in FL.🤔

[Stick93]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

The topic if the thread is whether Oasis is coming to NY. Great deals that people have is just a side track.

I don't think its coming - or any cruises leaving very soon. I was thinking about the staff all crammed into the basement of the ship. Living within 4 feet of one another and definitely no able to keep any distance. They are exposed to passengers and within 2 weeks any ship will be a floating epicenter again. The only way a cruise can happen and I don't think it will is ships leaving well under max capacity with crew taking over rooms for themselves and some level of social distancing happening. I have no clue how that can be done and so I am saying - NO Oasis this summer in NYC/NJ. I have a cruise 8/23 and I am 99% sure it will not happen. 

[HBE4]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

The topic if the thread is whether Oasis is coming to NY. Great deals that people have is just a side track.

 

On topic: I think it depends on duration and capacity. 

 

If cruising doesn't return until Sept 1st, I don't see Oasis coming to NJ for a short 2 month season. 

 

If cruising resumes end of June - I know, unlikely but for arguments sake - it would depend on how many people cancelled. I doubt they would sail Oasis at 50% capacity. Probaly deploy it elsewhere where it can be filled up and replace it with a smaller ship. Better to have Empress sailing at 90% or Voyager-class at 80% than Oasis at 50% or less. 

 

In my opinion. 

 

[Chrislynn55]

6 hours ago, nemesees said:

 

 

If cruiser is the one who cancels, then they lose the NRD deposit and cannot claim FCC.

 

Are you saying if I decide not to make final payment at the end of May for my September cruise, that I will lose ALL of my nonrefundable deposit?

 

Since my sailing date doesn't qualify for the "cruise with confidence" FCC cancellation option (only applies to cruises up to Sept 1), I've assumed that the usual RCI cancellation penalty would apply - $100 pp kept by RCI and the rest returned to me as FCC.

[nemesees]

I booked my September cruise at the end last year. I was able to cancel and rebook same one with a new promotional offer and no penalizing fees. 
I do not want to wait until they have the green light and the mad rush from those suffering from cabin fever, bogging down the system with the possibility of cruise fares skyrocketing. So I think I do have a nice little investment compared to many resorts that charge much more just for a hotel room. And if it gets cancelled, I get another 125% FCC.

Will they bankrupt? I doubt it. Cruise ships are here to stay. Many countries/cities depend on those vacationing passengers. 
Meanwhile, we will soon be retired and we’re really hoping to take several cruises a year.

Hopefully there will be a solution soon.

[nemesees]

46 minutes ago, Chrislynn55 said:

 

Are you saying if I decide not to make final payment at the end of May for my September cruise, that I will lose ALL of my nonrefundable deposit?

 

Since my sailing date doesn't qualify for the "cruise with confidence" FCC cancellation option (only applies to cruises up to Sept 1), I've assumed that the usual RCI cancellation penalty would apply - $100 pp kept by RCI and the rest returned to me as FCC.

That’s my understanding, I’m not aware of any part of the deposit going to FCC.

I would give the contract a look over to make sure.

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, Chrislynn55 said:

Are you saying if I decide not to make final payment at the end of May for my September cruise, that I will lose ALL of my nonrefundable deposit?

If you cancel a sailing outside of CWC ( after 9/1) you get an FCC -$100pp. Inside CWC, that $100pp penalty is waived.

[Chrislynn55]

36 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

If you cancel a sailing outside of CWC ( after 9/1) you get an FCC -$100pp. Inside CWC, that $100pp penalty is waived.

 

Thank you. This was what I thought, and what I read when I re-checked RCI's non refundable cancellation policy after reading the post by nemesees.

[cured]

5 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

That's good they didn't spike it.

They did spike it for Oasis, summer 2021. The prices are way higher than my Oasis, summer 2020 prices.

 

Deluxe Beverage $77 vs $61

Refreshment $34.99 vs $19