SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[highplanesdrifters]

Thanks for keeping it together while I was gone guys and girls.  Market is right where I left it Aug. 1.  😂😂😂

[TLCOhio]

Just started Thursday our Canada Maritimes adventures!!  In Halifax right now.  Yesterday was a brutal day for the stock market given the comments on inflation-fighting by the Federal Reserved Board Chairman.  .  

 

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday, below is the chart for Royal Caribbean reflecting this past week.  Up, up, then down significantly on Friday.  Both Carnival and Norwegian were down more than 5%.  Cruise stocks dropped much more than the overall market shift downward on Friday.  

 

Where are things headed for the rest of August and September??  More details and charts later when I have additional free time. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

[highplanesdrifters]

Please share your Canadian Maritimes adventures! And of course have the best of times.

[crusinbanjo]

thanks Terry, enjoy the trip, (one of my favorites),   Looking forward to reading your comments about the cruise.

[rkacruiser]

10 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Just started Thursday our Canada Maritimes adventures!!  In Halifax right now

 

I hope you will enjoy a safe and very pleasant trip to a beautiful area of North America.  Any comments that you have time to post about your trip and your experience with Tauck will be appreciated.  But, those, and your comments about the Market or the "news of the day", ought to be the least of your concerns.  

[TLCOhio]

On 8/27/2022 at 5:00 PM, rkacruiser said:

I hope you will enjoy a safe and very pleasant trip to a beautiful area of North America.  Any comments that you have time to post about your trip and your experience with Tauck will be appreciated.  But, those, and your comments about the Market or the "news of the day", ought to be the least of your concerns.  

 

Appreciate these nice comments and follow-ups.  YES!!   Back home last night after our eleven-day adventure in the Canada Maritime Provinces.  Great weather, nice people, wonderful history and sights, excellent seafood, etc., etc.  Will share more later in the week.  Good questions to consider for doing a Tauck/bus tour versus covering these areas via a cruise ship.  

 

Below are the charts for last week's performance on Wall Street by the three major cruise lines.  Clearly the overall stock market has been challenged and cruise stocks are not getting "serious love".  Where will the trend go for the next and final four months of 2022?  Good questions?  

 

Any future predictions?   And insights as to why and how?  How much impacted by inflation at record recent levels, higher interest rates, a looming recession, massive cruise line debts, etc.?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the three major cruise line companies for last week's up and down activities.  Rocky??:

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During the past month of 2022, here has been the downward side for the overall S&P 500 Index.  Also, this Wall Street Journal chart shows the 52-week trading range for this key indicator.:

 

Since the start of 2022, here has been the pattern of performance for Royal Caribbean during the most recent eight months.  Recovery is happening, but Wall Street traders are not that confident.  Right or wrong?:

[highplanesdrifters]

Welcome home Terry. Glad to have you back. Look forward to hearing about your trip.  As for the market, it's a dice roll. 😀

[rkacruiser]

Welcome home and back to the Boards, Terry.  So much uncertainty in the world breeds instability for the Markets.  I had been considering to see a small pot of CCL all Summer and haven't.  Unless my thinking changes, I'll hold on to it until sometime in December and re-assess what I want to do. 

[Lois R]

Hi Terry, you were on one coast and I was on another LOL.......I was on a land trip to Denali and then on a cruise to Alaska. I got home late Thursday night.  It was my first time to Denali........saw lots of wildlife!  But  I have been to Alaska multiple times over the years.

 

Looking forward to hearing about your trip😀

[TLCOhio]

On 9/6/2022 at 9:12 AM, highplanesdrifters said:

Welcome home Terry. Glad to have you back. Look forward to hearing about your trip.  As for the market, it's a dice roll. 😀

 

Appreciate these kind comments.  Pictures and added details coming soon.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines. 

 

Up, UP!!  Higher and HIGHER!!   WOW!  Good news?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog;

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines and their stock performance during the past five trading days.  This past week was only four days as Monday, the market was closed for Labor Day here.:

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[rkacruiser]

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Up, UP!!  Higher and HIGHER!!   WOW!  Good news?

 

Who knows?  What has changed in the cruise industry to cause this.  The market was up, so why not the cruise stocks.  

[TLCOhio]

On 9/10/2022 at 4:31 PM, rkacruiser said:

Who knows?  What has changed in the cruise industry to cause this.  The market was up, so why not the cruise stocks.  

 

YES, the correct questions are "who knows?" and "what has changed?"!!  

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, these charts below show a sharp contrast for what has happened today with the three cruise ship stocks . . . versus . . . the overall S&P 500 index.  Both Carnival and Norwegian were up, UP by similar levels this morning.

 

What has happened, why and how?  Clearly, today, those trading stocks have a new optimism about the future for cruise lines.  Will this trend last and continue?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 255,189 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, these two charts show an interesting contrast for the downward moves by the overall stock market versus the sharp jump up, UP for Royal Caribbean.  Why and what's next?:

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[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are the charts for the stocks of the three major cruise ship lines.  Does this look like a roller coaster?  Clearly, it was a bad week, overall, for the NYSE stocks, including one day featuring the biggest drop in values during the past two years.  

 

From this below-connected financial website on Tuesday, they had details and speculation about Royal Caribbean, etc.  True or not?  Here was their headline: “Stock Market Sell-Off: Is Royal Caribbean Cruises a Buy?” with these highlights: “Let's take a look at Royal Caribbean Cruises, the cruise ship operator whose stock has been in Davy Jones' locker since the COVID-19 pandemic started and has had difficulty building steam since.  In the 10-year period before the global crisis, Royal Caribbean stock returned more than 420% compared to 190% gain by the S&P 500, an amazing run-up during a big bull market. Since then, though, it lost two-thirds of its value and is down almost 40% this year alone. Let's see if investors will remain lost at sea with this stock, or if this one-time travel and tourism star can go full steam ahead once more.”

 

Here is their answer: "Getting back into open waters hasn't been enough to lift cruise ship stocks.  The rising tide of a reopened economy still finds Royal Caribbean and the others stranded on the shores of missed opportunity. That's partly a result of cruise operators still not operating at full capacity.  Royal Caribbean's second-quarter load factor, or its passenger occupancy rate, stood at 82% overall as the company suffered setbacks first from the omicron variant outbreak and then Russia's invasion of Ukraine, since one-third of its capacity is for European itineraries. The others aren't doing any better. Carnival's occupancy rate was 69% in the quarter while Norwegian's stood at 65%."

 

This analysis goes into detail about "laboring under a heavy debt load."  But, this report finishes on a fairly positive tone and might have helped pump up the  Thursday upswing for RCL, etc  Maybe?  Not?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/stock-market-sell-off-is-royal-caribbean-cruises-a-buy/ar-AA11LI65

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 244,829 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines and their stock performance during the past five trading days.  Good nor bad news?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[rkacruiser]

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Maybe?  Not?

 

The question is what happened on September 15th that started the upswing?  No one seems to know that has any interest in the cruise stocks.  

 

One person with whom I communicate who follows NCLH reported large insider stock sales.  Her opinion is the classic "pump and dump" may be taking place.  

[TLCOhio]

On 9/17/2022 at 4:35 PM, rkacruiser said:

One person with whom I communicate who follows NCLH reported large insider stock sales.  Her opinion is the classic "pump and dump" may be taking place.  

 

Appreciate this interesting speculation and guessing about such potential "pump and dump" games that some might be playing.  What's really true?  Hard to know!!  

 

From a company media release this morning, there was this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group announces proposed note offerings to refinance its senior guaranteed notes and senior secured notes due 2023” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Cruises today announced that it has commenced a private offering of senior guaranteed notes due 2029  for an aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion and a concurrent private offering of senior secured notes due 2029, for an aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion. The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Senior Guaranteed Notes and the Senior Secured Notes, together with cash on hand, to redeem all its outstanding 9.125% Priority Guaranteed Notes due 2023 and 10.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2023”

 

Reducing interest rate costs makes sense.  BUT, this makes the point that there is billions and billions of dollars of debt out there for the cruise lines that must be rolled over and ultimately paid off.  Unlike the Federal government, the cruise lines do not have printing presses to keep floating more debt that our grandchildren must pay off, etc.  

 

In the release details, it is noted that these new RCL notes will be "unsecured".  Does that aspect provide an added, interesting twist/angle as people consider their "investments" and advanced deposits/payments?  How much risk can be managed?

 

Full story at:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/royal-caribbean-group-announces-proposed-note-offerings-to-refinance-its-senior-guaranteed-notes-and-senior-secured-notes-due-2023-1031758939

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 238,459 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[RetiredandTravel]

More Details

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/royal-caribbean-taps-junk-bond-market-for-2-billion-refinancing

[TLCOhio]

Appreciate this helpful link from RetiredandTravel.  That Bloomberg sub-headline saying : "Moody’s downgraded the company’s credit rating last month" really caught my attention!!!

 

With higher interest rates announced yesterday by the Federal Reserve and the stock market shrinking, the economic signs are not exactly positive, full speed ahead.  You would think this below news would have sent the cruise stocks up, UP.  Right?  

 

From the below-connected website this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean stock gains after disclosing bookings were 'significantly outpacing' pre-pandemic levels” with these highlights: “Shares of Royal Caribbean Group rose Thursday, after the cruise operator said demand remains 'strong,' as bookings have been 'significantly outpacing' pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The company said the easing of COVID-19 testing and vaccination requirements from most of its cruises had an 'immediate positive impact' on bookings for 2022 and 2023 cruises.”

 

BUT, the overall economic direction and uncertainty seems to be causing many consumers to slow down, raise questions and/or have doubts.  Right or wrong?

 

Will have the stock charts for all three cruise lines tomorrow.  Today was just rather strange as to the movements and impacting factors.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-stock-gains-after-disclosing-bookings-were-significantly-outpacing-pre-pandemic-levels-2022-09-22?mod=home-page

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 97,932 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From this afternoon's Wall Street Journal, here is their chart for Royal Caribbean and what has happened in the most recent past few days.  Downward!!  Why and how?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

Edited September 22, 2022 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

As an interesting indirect sign for how crazy are these economic times, I thought this below article would be worth sharing.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal, they had this headline: “This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t" with this sub-headline: "The yellow metal is supposed to be a haven when stocks are a mess, but it is down about 8% this year.”

 

Here are a couple of their story highlights: “Prices jumped near all-time highs earlier this year, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended markets for stocks and commodities. In early March, gold settled at a 2022 high of $2,069.40 a troy ounce. Now, it is down 8.2% so far this year, on pace for its worst annual performance since 2015.”

 

With all of the cable TV ads promoting gold sales and inflation so high, I would have expected a different circumstance for gold and its supposed protections against the diluted values for paper money.  What am I missing?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-should-have-been-a-great-year-for-gold-heres-why-it-isnt-11663526294?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 70,597 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

[Stumblefoot]

5 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

I would have expected a different circumstance for gold and its supposed protections against the diluted values for paper money.  What am I missing?

Your missing the fact that the US Dollar is at its highest point since the new millennium and the dot com implosion.  Gold was setting new lows back then too.  Strong dollar is not good for gold.

[TLCOhio]

11 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Your missing the fact that the US Dollar is at its highest point since the new millennium and the dot com implosion.  Gold was setting new lows back then too.  Strong dollar is not good for gold.

 

Appreciate the great point and excellent follow-up about the value of the US Dollar being so high.  Yes, there are many different economic factors to consider in understanding the OVERALL financial circumstances in the world. Lots of "moving parts" affecting cruise lines and consumers as they consider their many, many options for travel and adventure.   

 

From Yahoo News yesterday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Taps Junk-Bond Market For $2 Billion Refinancing” on their use of the Bloomberg story with these highlights: “The cruiseline operator raised $2 billion to help refinance all of its outstanding 9.125% bonds due 2023 and its 10.875% notes due the same year, according to a Thursday statement. The new bonds will be due in 2029.”

 

Oh, so the total re-financing is TWO billion dollars.  Now we are talking "real money"!!  Not just a mere one billion  And this pushes back the potential pay-back till 2029.  That helps better explain how Royal Caribbean is seeking to manage its debt rolled up during this Covid shut-down period.  This is serious Finance 101.  It was noted that part of it involves "$1 billion of priority guarantee notes."  Not sure what that means.  As I understand overall this is unsecured financing, but not sure what "priority guarantee notes" means.  This article has many other details outlined, including "Refinancings have been scarce since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates earlier this year."  

 

No wonder the new Royal Caribbean CEO is their former CFO.  Juggling these complicated finances is not simple or easy.  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/royal-caribbean-taps-junk-bond-134737753.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 53,207 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[TLCOhio]

From Barron's, the sister publication of the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Line Stocks Lead Travel Sector Lower as Recession Fears Mount” with these highlights: “Cruise operators led travel-related stocks lower early Friday as investors continued to weigh the risk of recession.  Shares in Carnival Corp fell close to 5% in premarket trading. Carnival has fallen more than 52% so far in 2022, as of Thursday’s close, while Norwegian has declined 30% and Royal Caribbean is 39% down over the same period.  'The cruise industry has been growing through a grinding restart from its 16+months total shutdown, combined with fuel prices up, and now concerns about having to face a recession with the industry carrying record debt levels,' UBS analysts, led by Robin Farley, said.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-carnival-norwegian-recession-51663935836

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Various visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 49,522 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[TLCOhio]

Sadly, this morning, the three major cruise stocks are down 6-7+%  That is a big downward shift!!  More later today.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[Mr Luxury]

5 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Sadly, this morning, the three major cruise stocks are down 6-7+%  That is a big downward shift!!  More later today.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

Thanks Terry,

I wouldn't want to be A&K trying to launch New Crystal at the moment.

[RetiredandTravel]

quote from following article

 

"

The Senior Guaranteed Notes will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by RCI Holdings LLC, which owns 100% of the equity interests of certain of the Company's wholly-owned vessel-owning subsidiaries.

The Senior Secured Notes will be guaranteed by Celebrity Cruises Inc., Celebrity Cruises Holdings Inc. and certain of the Company's wholly-owned vessel owning subsidiaries. The Senior Secured Notes and the related guarantees will be secured by 26 of the Company's vessels and material intellectual property of the Company in an amount not to exceed permitted capacity under the Company's existing indebtedness."

 

 

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Royal+Caribbean+(RCL)+announces+proposed+note+offerings+to+refinance+its+senior+guaranteed+notes+and+senior+secured+notes+due+2023/20613403.html

 

 

[Desperate to Sail]

50 minutes ago, Mr Luxury said:

Thanks Terry,

I wouldn't want to be A&K trying to launch New Crystal at the moment.

 

I respectfully will offer a differing opinion. By launching now, A&K avoided the 2+ years of massive debt accumulation while the cruise industry was shut down. They're starting with a clean slate.