Any news on HAL test cruises?

[Hlitner]

When the CDC first published their Cruise Guidelines I posted that it seemed to be carefully written to make the restart of cruising very difficult.  The problem is that a cruise line would first need to invest a lot of money to get a crew into place, go through the necessary quarantine period, arrange for a test cruise which would generate no revenue and lose more money, and after all that there would be no guarantee that the CDC would grant them a certificate to operate that single vessel on a cruise.  Keep in mind that what I described would need to be done for each specific vessel that wanted to utilize any US port.  And having done all that, a single case of COVID would likely result in the authorization being withdrawn for an unknown period of time.   So here we are in late January and we are not aware of anyone having gone through those steps or planning to do it in the next few weeks.

 

It does sound like some cruise lines are thinking about some resumption in early May but even that is not assured.  My own thinking is that the lines keep stalling to see whether vaccination programs will reach a point where the lines can simply move to a 100% vaccination policy (for both crew and passengers) and use that as leverage with both the CDC and the various European authorities.  A 100% vaccination policy may also be the only way cruises will be able to access the Australian, NZ market and even Alaska where they need Canada to reopen Vancouver and Victoria to get operations underway.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

Delete

[POA1]

26 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

When the CDC first published their Cruise Guidelines I posted that it seemed to be carefully written to make the restart of cruising very difficult.  The problem is that a cruise line would first need to invest a lot of money to get a crew into place, go through the necessary quarantine period, arrange for a test cruise which would generate no revenue and lose more money, and after all that there would be no guarantee that the CDC would grant them a certificate to operate that single vessel on a cruise.  Keep in mind that what I described would need to be done for each specific vessel that wanted to utilize any US port.  And having done all that, a single case of COVID would likely result in the authorization being withdrawn for an unknown period of time.   So here we are in late January and we are not aware of anyone having gone through those steps or planning to do it in the next few weeks.

 

===SNIP+++

I think it's actually worse than that. A positive test triggers the protocols. With the current OCR amplification cycles being between 37 & 40, you get a lot of false positives. (The false positive rate runs between 2.4% and 4.7%, There's a very math-heavy explanation in the Alachua (FL) Chronicle. It's very much in-the-weeds unless you're a math nerd, or someone who enjoys Bayes Theorem.)

 

If you have a "small" ship with 1,500 souls aboard, you're going to have at least 36 false positives.  On 1/20/2021, the WHO lowered the recommended amplification cycle threshold to 30. That should lower the % false positives.

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

When the CDC first published their Cruise Guidelines I posted that it seemed to be carefully written to make the restart of cruising very difficult.  The problem is that a cruise line would first need to invest a lot of money to get a crew into place, go through the necessary quarantine period, arrange for a test cruise which would generate no revenue and lose more money, and after all that there would be no guarantee that the CDC would grant them a certificate to operate that single vessel on a cruise.  Keep in mind that what I described would need to be done for each specific vessel that wanted to utilize any US port.  And having done all that, a single case of COVID would likely result in the authorization being withdrawn for an unknown period of time.   So here we are in late January and we are not aware of anyone having gone through those steps or planning to do it in the next few weeks.

 

It does sound like some cruise lines are thinking about some resumption in early May but even that is not assured.  My own thinking is that the lines keep stalling to see whether vaccination programs will reach a point where the lines can simply move to a 100% vaccination policy (for both crew and passengers) and use that as leverage with both the CDC and the various European authorities.  A 100% vaccination policy may also be the only way cruises will be able to access the Australian, NZ market and even Alaska where they need Canada to reopen Vancouver and Victoria to get operations underway.

 

Hank

IIRC, I think even before the CDC guidelines, you thought that the strategy of the major cruise lines was to just wait out the pandemic and hope it just goes away. Counting on the vaccine seems to be just a continuation of that strategy.

[Ken the cruiser]

For what it's worth, here's the only "cruise line" tracking data I could find on the CDC website with regards to the ships currently scheduled to sail from a US port before Nov 1, 2020. You'll find the table associated with the status of each cruise line about half the way down the page.

 

Crew Disembarkations through Commercial Travel | CDC

Edited January 25, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[rkacruiser]

18 hours ago, POA1 said:

as long as you take a shot of Wild Turkey 101 bourbon.

 

Would it be acceptable if I had a triple shot of CC in my glass of Sprite?  😀

 

It's hard to find Canadian Club 100 Proof and I doubt that  the ship's Beverage Manager would have ordered such.  

[POA1]

8 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Would it be acceptable if I had a triple shot of CC in my glass of Sprite?  😀

 

It's hard to find Canadian Club 100 Proof and I doubt that  the ship's Beverage Manager would have ordered such.  

You'll probably have to swirl it around a bit to achieve proper levels of disinfectant, but a slice of citrus fruit will probably help.

[Boatdrill]

On 1/24/2021 at 1:23 PM, Mary229 said:

I saw a rumor today that the CDC will be making a announcement in regards to the cruise industry this week.   

Source ? 

[Mary229]

10 hours ago, Boatdrill said:

Source ? 

I would have to back but it was one of the Vloggers I follow on YouTube.  I only watch Vloggers with a long history and large following, usually professionals.  That said, I saw no news yesterday concerning the CDC new orders.  The old order expired January 26

[Lido - Lanai]

41 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

The old order expired January 26

I was unable to find mention of the January 26, 2021 date on the CDC web site. The latest document, "Framework for Conditional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships", updated October 30, 2020, states:

This Order is effective upon signature and shall remain in effect until the earliest of (1) the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; (2) the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or (3) November 1, 2021.

 

Maybe I missed something ??