Shorex bubble?

[clo]

1 hour ago, howiefrommd said:

The other concern of the Infectious Disease and Epidemiology communities is the lack of information regarding length of immunity and how the current mRNA vaccines will deal with variants.  

"lack of information" YET. It's going to take awhile to get that data. And I think it would help if CDC would issue at least some 'rules.'

[LHT28]

42 minutes ago, sofietucker said:

Right. I had earlier cited the Riviera's single offered shorex at Mitilini, an island with TONS of stuff to do. If they are at 50% capacity, 342 pax, that's still about 5-6 buses,

50%  of Riviera pax  would be abt 600 pax  plus the crew that also may have time ashore  would bump up that figure

All tours do not hear to one place all at the same time even in normal conditions

When the ships are sailing again  they will stagger the tours  so overcrowding the places  will not happen

But that is  a long way off at this time

 

[clo]

46 minutes ago, sofietucker said:

Right. I had earlier cited the Riviera's single offered shorex at Mitilini, an island with TONS of stuff to do. If they are at 50% capacity, 342 pax, that's still about 5-6 buses, all heading to a single monastery at 8 am...either that or a mad scramble to be in the first cohort to sign up. Nope, na' ga' do.Too much travel time, planning, logisitics, cost to all be jettisoned that way.

I hadn't thought of the tour operators. Can they afford to have enough coaches at 50% capacity?

[sofietucker]

42 minutes ago, clo said:

I hadn't thought of the tour operators. Can they afford to have enough coaches at 50% capacity?

Sure, if they jack the prices way up--which tourists will pay, if there are no other options. "We came all this way, so..."

[pinotlover]

54 minutes ago, clo said:

I hadn't thought of the tour operators. Can they afford to have enough coaches at 50% capacity?

No. If the reasoned expectation is this is a year, maybe two situation, no one will take on that much debt. Suicidal. Short term infrastructure limitations. 

[howiefrommd]

1 hour ago, clo said:

"lack of information" YET. It's going to take awhile to get that data. And I think it would help if CDC would issue at least some 'rules.'

Although cruising is important to us, I am not sure (given what is going on as a public health extent) that cruising is high on their list of priorities.  

[howiefrommd]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I agree with you totally. Great recent article in one of the rags by scientists that clearly said “ the coronavirus is now endemic to the world. It’s not going away. The only question is how we decide to live with it.”

 

Over time countries decide what level of normalcy they want to bring back. Are cruise ships, ski slopes, swimming pools permanently closed? Hot tubs, steam baths, hydrotherapy pools, saunas, casinos, on ships or in hotels a thing of the past. Sporting events, concerts, Symphony all only remote? Or, do we learn to live with it and assume some risks? I truly believe some will stay hunkered the rest of their lives. Others won’t accept that.  How long will the governments leave everything shuttered before a near total economic collapse happens? Will it take marshal law to stop all the riots, and recall elections, to turn around the shutdowns?

 

 

Eventually things will level out, albeit we will probably have a new level of normal.  Taking off my clinicians hat for a second, my real concern if how the cruise lines and public health officials react when there are positive cases identified on a cruise ship forthcoming.  My personal concern is that I do not want to be held captive like we have seen earlier.  An additional concern I have, should I test positive, quaranting in a third world country because that is where they decided to dump me off.  

[RJB]

5 hours ago, sofietucker said:

And just having read that the CDC has pushed the lifting of their restrictions to Nov.1 2021, pretty sure our Dec cruise ain't happening neither...

Kind of agree with you about Dec. 

[Tranquility Base]

On 2/16/2021 at 5:00 AM, Tranquility Base said:

Sure, but my point was I think electronic onboard tracing will be used irrespective of vaccination requirements.

Cruise lines will want effective close contact tracing and onboard testing in order to ring fence any case quickly and keep a ship's itinerary intact.

 

Some counties may also mandate this.

They can say, one case means no one off the ship touring for the day; or with effective contact tracing / testing  will still allow those not affected to disembark.

Apparently the CEO of Royal Caribbean was recently interviewed on CNBC.

 

He indicated potential passengers are concerned a great deal about the quarantine question if there are cases discovered onboard.

A big focus is currently establishing the protocols around this issue.

 

As I indicated before, to my mind it requires:

 

1.Ability to test all people reliably onboard at short notice, and daily if required;

2. Onboard electronic contact tracing to identify close contacts and quickly ring fence any cases through isolation;

3.Agreements with ports as to how and when any positive cases will be moved onshore.

 

[pinotlover]

Protocols will certainly have to be established. 
 

We’re not doing any cruises out of any US port for the foreseeable future, and believe that any destination we go to will require vaccinations as a condition of entry. A fully vaccinated ship makes the chances very small for any outbreaks.

 

The elephant in the room is children, particularly those below 16 for which no vaccines are currently approved. This creates a huge issue for those lines that cater to families and children. 
 

Protocols surrounding this issue will be interesting to watch. Viking’s No Children Policy may end up being a saving grace for them.

 

If Europe mandates vaccinations, as expected, a lot of families will now be cancelling trips there. Wait and See!

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by pinotlover

[Tranquility Base]

4 hours ago, pinotlover said:

The elephant in the room is children, particularly those below 16 for which no vaccines are currently approved. This creates a huge issue for those lines that cater to families and children. 

I think that particular elephant is hibernating peacefully in the corner for all of 2021.

It will have zero effect on if, when and how cruising restarts this year.

 

In 2022 vaccine technology will be different to the 1st generation ones we now have.

That problem will sort itself next year.

 

I think many parents will have realised by now that any 2021 cruising will  be without children. 

[pinotlover]

Many of we travelers, vs cruisers, had better pray we aren’t stuck with ship shorex tours. My Jan 22 cruise is still over 11 months out and some of the most popular ship tours are already sold out and waitlisted. 
 

I had looked at those tours a couple weeks ago, and considered booking just in case. Yesterday, they were sold out. The remaining available tours, I really didn’t have any desire to take, particularly at O’s outrageous prices. Will I now be doomed to the ship? 
 

FREEDOM!!

[Tranquility Base]

1 hour ago, mringenoldus said:

2. The procedures for containing any positive test results which may occur while onboard do not include quarantining any unaffected passengers in their cabin. 

If a positive case is detected onboard how, initially, will it be determined who else onboard is also possibly affected ?

Isn't that what they are trying to work out protocols around ?

[mringenoldus]

49 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

If a positive case is detected onboard how, initially, will it be determined who else onboard is also possibly affected ?

Isn't that what they are trying to work out protocols around ?

All cruise lines are planning to implement devices that allow for contact tracing - similar to the Princess Medallion. The wearable devices will allow them to know who the ill person has been in close contact with.

If the person is not so ill as to warrant disembarkation at the nearest port, there will be a set of quarantine cabins reserved specifically for the COVID-positive passenger. Ships will have additional medical personnel onboard.

[mringenoldus]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

Many of we travelers, vs cruisers, had better pray we aren’t stuck with ship shorex tours. My Jan 22 cruise is still over 11 months out and some of the most popular ship tours are already sold out and waitlisted. 
 

I had looked at those tours a couple weeks ago, and considered booking just in case. Yesterday, they were sold out. The remaining available tours, I really didn’t have any desire to take, particularly at O’s outrageous prices. Will I now be doomed to the ship? 
 

FREEDOM!!

In all likelihood, your January cruise with have a restriction on shore excursions limiting them only to those offered by the cruise line. Initially, short itinerary cruises are planned to private islands. There is some optimism that ships may begin more expansive sailings beginning in the 4th quarter of 2021, therefore, a January itinersry would be considered a relatively new return to sail cruise.

[Tranquility Base]

30 minutes ago, mringenoldus said:

All cruise lines are planning to implement devices that allow for contact tracing - similar to the Princess Medallion. The wearable devices will allow them to know who the ill person has been in close contact with.

I agree.

I'll rephrase my question.

Once those close contacts have been identified, won't they then be required to immediately isolate in their cabins until their infection status can be determined ?

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Tranquility Base said:

I agree.

I'll rephrase my question.

Once those close contacts have been identified, won't they then be required to immediately isolate in their cabins until their infection status can be determined ?

No doubt that will be the case. 

[clo]

5 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I had looked at those tours a couple weeks ago, and considered booking just in case. Yesterday, they were sold out.

Now that's something I hadn't considered. So there won't be enough of the shore excursions to accommodate all the pax? Well that IS a deal breaker.

[clo]

3 hours ago, mringenoldus said:

All cruise lines are planning to implement devices that allow for contact tracing - similar to the Princess Medallion. The wearable devices will allow them to know who the ill person has been in close contact with.

If the person is not so ill as to warrant disembarkation at the nearest port, there will be a set of quarantine cabins reserved specifically for the COVID-positive passenger. Ships will have additional medical personnel onboard.

So do you KNOW this or do you think it?

[pinotlover]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Now that's something I hadn't considered. So there won't be enough of the shore excursions to accommodate all the pax? Well that IS a deal breaker.

Not what I said. The tour is in the Falklands. Oceania offers one (1) all day tour to the penguin breeding grounds for which the area is famous. Their remaining tours are the geriatric 2-4 hour bus,  or walk around town tours covered by OLife, which are stupid expensive.

 

Part if the issue is a large Celebrity ship will dock there the same day as we do. Celebrity has been proactive and booked up near everything on the island. There is limited infrastructure.

 

On one hand, I was able to book the private tour we want for half of O’s tour for the exact same tour. If O allows private tours we’re set. Celebrity cruisers have booked up all the other private tours.

 

It’s complicated. Hopefully by January O won’t be requiring ship tours only. Pursuant to our private tour guides the Falklands are not requiring ship only tours.

[mringenoldus]

1 hour ago, clo said:

So do you KNOW this or do you think it?

I am consistently cautious to only provide accurate information - there is already a wealth of misinformation on Cruise Critic.

Please contact your travel advisor for further confirmation.

[clo]

3 minutes ago, mringenoldus said:

I am consistently cautious to only provide accurate information - there is already a wealth of misinformation on Cruise Critic.

Please contact your travel advisor for further confirmation.

Thanks. I try to do the same.

[Shawnino]

16 hours ago, mringenoldus said:

All cruise lines are planning to implement devices that allow for contact tracing - similar to the Princess Medallion. The wearable devices will allow them to know who the ill person has been in close contact with.

If the person is not so ill as to warrant disembarkation at the nearest port, there will be a set of quarantine cabins reserved specifically for the COVID-positive passenger. Ships will have additional medical personnel onboard.

 

Aren't you sweet. They can try this, but it won't work because there's no cost-effective test for coronaviruses that does not yield > 5% false positives. (Ask the NBA.) We can't handle that number.

 

Picture it: Mabel on Deck 9 gets sick. She tests positive for Coronavirus. Likely, it's the Wuhan. Maybe it's Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Maybe it's one of the other animals in the coronavirus zoo (they never totally go away). The test doesn't know, just says Corona. Maybe it's a false-positive/inconclusive. 

 

So Mabel's contacts from her wristband get tested. Trivia partners, the bridge game, her servers in the MDR. There may be some true positives. There are enough true-positives and false-positives combined  there to keep the chain going. How long before the game of 'telephone' has touched everyone aboard, a community of 2,000,  and everyone is either positive or isolating-for-X-days as precation?

 

There is another way:

--Assume universal exposure

--Isolate and treat the very sick

--Let everyone else get on with working/cruising

 

Testing/contact tracing is so 2020. It can work very well if you do it early doors. Those days are gone for much of the world.

 

Look at the US. 350 million people, minus 50 million kids of least concern for now. 300 million. We're closing in on 30 million verified cases. The real number is (pick your expert... 4x-8x higher) let's go with 150 million because so many mild/asymptomatic cases went undetected. By April, 150 million vaccines and by June closer to 200 million, July 250 million. Combined, that's well more than the population of concern. OK, of course there is overlap. Some had both the virus and shots. Some had neither. But contact tracing/testing yields vanishingly diminishing returns because so many people have some (varying) level of protection. Resources are finite. Instead of spending time/money contact tracing, spend it rolling out more vaccines.

 

So yeah--the ship should just assume everyone's been exposed/somewhat-protected, and carry on. Set up quarters with ample therapeutic drugs for the tiny fraction who get very sick, and let the rest of the cruise go on with minimal disruption. Ports that don't condone this approach are bypassed.    

 

 

[pinotlover]

If nothing else comes out of all of this mess, maybe it will be Oceania will get both serious and aggressive in its quarantine protocols. If one is quarantined, they stay quarantined. Besides Covid, it would help eliminate or reduce all the Noro problems Oceania has had in the past. That would truly be a blessing!

 

The reason I bring this up is the testing/ contact tracing issue. In the past people suspected with Noro would hide in their cabins for a day or so and not go to Medical because they didn’t want to be quarantined. Noro spread when they did go out. I don’t see how the ship will mandate and administer daily test for all the passengers. 100 people per hour for eight hours per day, every day, isn’t practical. Like those with Noro, the ones with suspected symptoms will wait until they’re really sick to go to Medical, because they won’t want to be quarantined.
 

As stated above, mandate vaccinations, and assume everyone has been exposed and let us get on with cruising. Take care of the sick as they self report . 

[mringenoldus]

Shawnino - clearly you have given this issue a great deal of thought. Once again, I will point out two things:

1) MSC has been successfully sailing in Europe with the precautions US lines are planning to implement

2) It is not the Wuhan virus, rather it is COVID-19.