Westbound Transatlantic - M117 Departs 9th June - What about the restrictions?

[untailored bostonian]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Any cruise that begins or ends at a US port that is over 7 days duration is currently not allowed by the CDC.  Also, NY state has a quarantine in place, where anyone arriving from out of state must have a negative test within 3 days prior to entering the state, and then quarantine for 3 days, and get another negative test before you can leave quarantine.  Things can change by August, but I would be surprised if your cruise sails, or if you can get out of NYC in less than 3 days.

I'll look up those NY conditions. To enter the US you just need the pre flight test.

 

The 7 day rule is nothing new. Cruises never could leave a US port and return to a US port without a stop in a non US port.  This is why the Hawaiian west coast cruise alway have a quick touch and go stop in Mexico.

 

By 21 days, I mean stop in London, fuel, load provisions, but nobody going on the rest of the 21days gets off.

 

I would be fine with that. Frankly that is how I cruise: no shore leave.  The pools are empty on Port days.  PERFECT! 😏

 

As to NY, by June 1st everyone will be vacinated.  We'll there are mind-f"ed folk that will refuse to get vaccinated, but that will not keep NY from reaching herd immunity.  I seriously doubt NY will have those restrictions for travelers who also have proof of vaccinations. 

[chengkp75]

2 minutes ago, untailored bostonian said:

The 7 day rule is nothing new. Cruises never could leave a US port and return to a US port without a stop in a non US port.  This is why the Hawaiian west coast cruise alway have a quick touch and go stop in Mexico

This is not what I mean.  The CDC has told cruise lines, in the Framework for Conditional Sailing Certificate, issued in October, that no cruise that leaves or enters the US can be longer than 7 days, regardless of a foreign port or not.  

[majortom10]

31 minutes ago, untailored bostonian said:

I will add a longer comment after I get to a better editor. 🤦‍♂️

 

Yes. Non-british, Irish, citizen getting off in London under the conditions of today's quarantine would need to face expensive quarantine. Those rules as of today are ending by July.

 

"By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact."

 

If this is the case the quarentine requirement will be eliminated or revised. Reasonable minds may keep quarentine rules for unvacinated travelers,, but with proof of vaccinations and a negative covid test entry should be allowed.

 

There are ZERO problems flying into the US.  You need a negative covid test within 72 hours of your flight.  That is it.

I am aware of the different steps and dates set out by the UK government but these are not set in stone, the same with quarantine, and are all only if certain criteria is met and can be extended. Whilst I admire your optimism if what you believe was going to happen then why have Princess cancelled all their cruises until 25th September and P&O until end of August with some of their ships and end of September all others. If there was any chance that these cruise ships could sail under normal circumstances before those cancellation dates then I am sure they would especially Princess which would have a large amount of US cruisers booked on ships sailing from Southampton to Norway or Baltics. P&O is 99% UK cruisers and even though by July/August most adults in UK will be vaccinated  they have still cancelled cruises because it is either the UK government will not give them permission to sail and/or other countries visited will not allow the ships to dock. There is nothing special to think that Cunard will act any differently and I am sure they will also announce cancellation of cruises for same period but are just slower than P&O/Princess in doing so. The only ships sailing from Southampton will be "coastal water" cruises with no ports and full of UK residents only.

[untailored bostonian]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

This is not what I mean.  The CDC has told cruise lines, in the Framework for Conditional Sailing Certificate, issued in October, that no cruise that leaves or enters the US can be longer than 7 days, regardless of a foreign port or not.  

This cruise is 3 back to back 7 day cruises.

[untailored bostonian]

4 hours ago, majortom10 said:

I am aware of the different steps and dates set out by the UK government but these are not set in stone, the same with quarantine, and are all only if certain criteria is met and can be extended. Whilst I admire your optimism if what you believe was going to happen then why have Princess cancelled all their cruises until 25th September and P&O until end of August with some of their ships and end of September all others. If there was any chance that these cruise ships could sail under normal circumstances before those cancellation dates then I am sure they would especially Princess which would have a large amount of US cruisers booked on ships sailing from Southampton to Norway or Baltics. P&O is 99% UK cruisers and even though by July/August most adults in UK will be vaccinated  they have still cancelled cruises because it is either the UK government will not give them permission to sail and/or other countries visited will not allow the ships to dock. There is nothing special to think that Cunard will act any differently and I am sure they will also announce cancellation of cruises for same period but are just slower than P&O/Princess in doing so. The only ships sailing from Southampton will be "coastal water" cruises with no ports and full of UK residents only.

A few points. Unless there is an official UK statement on cruises, the Princess and P&O decision is based on an internal analysis and their crystal ball.  They are marketing to British cruisers for their summer and fall Mediterranean cruises.

 

Carnival is a different corporation and as of now they have not made the same calculations.  They may or they may not.  I think they are cautiously ready to wait.

 

Rational decision trees look to the data.  Why are cruises any place cancelled today?  Covid infections and transmission today are are not controlled. However, in 2 to 3 months that will no longer be true.  In in 5+ months that will not be true in many first world nations.  All parties, including the UK will be changing restrictions and regulations in this 5 month window.

 

Vaccines are the key. Herd immunity is the goal.  At least in the UK and the US vaccinations will provide that by early summer.  The EU is not going to reach that status for a longer period.

 

There is, imnho,  a reason that Cunard has marketed TA's starting June 9th.  Again imnho they see the ability to transport cruisers between NYC and London based on levels of vaccinations. I believe they see rules for fully vacinated travelers entering the UK changing based on the data and the science of post vaccinations community spread.

 

Just an observation.  Docking and disembarking are different standards.  Allowing non-UK citizens to board at those ports is another matter.  We may be seeing many cruises to nowhere, cruises where passengers do not leave their ship.  Right now I think many frequent cruisers will embrace this as a means to the ends, getting back onto the oceans.

Edited March 8, 2021 by untailored bostonian

[untailored bostonian]

To the best of my search, the UK and US cruise guidelines have not been updated since November 1, 2020.

 

Based on current data and the science of vaccinations impact on community spread, I expect both nations to make modifications this spring.

[Ray66]

1 hour ago, untailored bostonian said:

There is, imnho,  a reason that Cunard has marketed TA's starting June 9th.

 

The first TA is now 23rd June.

[untailored bostonian]

10 minutes ago, Ray66 said:

 

The first TA is now 23rd June.

I thought I'd seen that in passing 

[bluemarble]

33 minutes ago, untailored bostonian said:

But how is that relevant?

 

I embark in NYC. I travel 7 days to London a foreign port. I travel 7days and return to London. I travel 7 days to NYC where I disembark.

 

Even if you wish to call it one single cruise, that does not violate the PVSA.  I may be wrong, but if I am please explain.

 

No you are not wrong. Your example is perfectly fine.

 

If you embark or disembark at any foreign port, you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

If you embark and disembark at the same US port, as long as your voyage calls at any foreign port, then you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

If you embark at a US port and disembark at a different US port, as long as your voyage calls at a "distant" foreign port (as defined in that document), then you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

The intention of my post was to provide the requested citation in the CBP's PVSA Informed Compliance Publication that states how the voyage is ticketed, either as one voyage, or as individual back-to-back segments, is irrelevant to the application of the PVSA regulations.

Edited March 9, 2021 by bluemarble

[majortom10]

15 hours ago, untailored bostonian said:

A few points. Unless there is an official UK statement on cruises, the Princess and P&O decision is based on an internal analysis and their crystal ball.  They are marketing to British cruisers for their summer and fall Mediterranean cruises.

 

Carnival is a different corporation and as of now they have not made the same calculations.  They may or they may not.  I think they are cautiously ready to wait.

 

Rational decision trees look to the data.  Why are cruises any place cancelled today?  Covid infections and transmission today are are not controlled. However, in 2 to 3 months that will no longer be true.  In in 5+ months that will not be true in many first world nations.  All parties, including the UK will be changing restrictions and regulations in this 5 month window.

 

Vaccines are the key. Herd immunity is the goal.  At least in the UK and the US vaccinations will provide that by early summer.  The EU is not going to reach that status for a longer period.

 

There is, imnho,  a reason that Cunard has marketed TA's starting June 9th.  Again imnho they see the ability to transport cruisers between NYC and London based on levels of vaccinations. I believe they see rules for fully vacinated travelers entering the UK changing based on the data and the science of post vaccinations community spread.

 

Just an observation.  Docking and disembarking are different standards.  Allowing non-UK citizens to board at those ports is another matter.  We may be seeing many cruises to nowhere, cruises where passengers do not leave their ship.  Right now I think many frequent cruisers will embrace this as a means to the ends, getting back onto the oceans.

Cunard and P&O come under the umbrella of Carnival UK whilst Princess cruises does not and many of their cruises they have cancelled ex UK up until September 25th include many Americans who like to cruise Round British Isles, Norwegian Fjords and Baltics. All these cruises will be replaced with "coastal waters" cruises with UK residents only until September 25th. P&O have today announced that the UK government have given them permission for DOMESTIC cruises only and the President of P&O has said that while it is good news it will take some weeks after this date to start these operations and when they do they will sail again "coastal waters" cruises for UK residents only and they will  announce details at the end of the month.

[untailored bostonian]

11 hours ago, bluemarble said:

 

No you are not wrong. Your example is perfectly fine.

 

If you embark or disembark at any foreign port, you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

If you embark and disembark at the same US port, as long as your voyage calls at any foreign port, then you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

If you embark at a US port and disembark at a different US port, as long as your voyage calls at a "distant" foreign port (as defined in that document), then you are not in violation of the PVSA.

 

The intention of my post was to provide the requested citation in the CBP's PVSA Informed Compliance Publication that states how the voyage is ticketed, either as one voyage, or as individual back-to-back segments, is irrelevant to the application of the PVSA regulations.

To be honest I went down this rabbit hole because some individuals wanted to throw cold water on the chances of us taking our bucket list 50th anniversary cruise to see the fjords.  I just hated the raspberry tounge tone of , "trust me your screwed".

 

Intellectually, knowing what I know about this disease and imnho that is more that 99% of most, I know that by  our cruise date at the end of August all the current safety rules should be revised.  OTOH, I think there is a chance that overly cautious bureaucrats might "err on the side of caution".

 

I had not read the CDC October framework in detail, but I knew it dealt with extreme viral spread concerns of the late summer. I also knew they projected both simulated and actual cruises taking place under uncontrolled community spread. As such their standards of good practices were no longer relevant, well maybe today but not is 3 to 4 months.

 

There are aspects of their protocols that make sense. For example the requirement related to the cruise operators performing covid test onboard. Going forward even after vaccinations are sop as a requirement for all cruisers, masks, limited seating in theaters and dining, will persist for a while. I've been on enough cruises to wonder how the crowded pools will be managed.

 

I am debating prior to the pay in full date canceling our cruise and booking in 2022.  Mostly I am concerned about what the UK might require.  I think their forced hotel quarentining is outstanding public health policy at this time.  However in about 3 months based on the level of vaccinations and a traveler's vaccinations status, it will cease to be relevant as a prophylactic measure.

 

My fear for this cruise,  putting aside my protestations with my "friend" in this thread, is we would be forced to disembark in London after the first TA and be subject to a catch-22 of forced quarentine because of outdated bureaucratic caution.

[untailored bostonian]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

Cunard and P&O come under the umbrella of Carnival UK whilst Princess cruises does not and many of their cruises they have cancelled ex UK up until September 25th include many Americans who like to cruise Round British Isles, Norwegian Fjords and Baltics. All these cruises will be replaced with "coastal waters" cruises with UK residents only until September 25th. P&O have today announced that the UK government have given them permission for DOMESTIC cruises only and the President of P&O has said that while it is good news it will take some weeks after this date to start these operations and when they do they will sail again "coastal waters" cruises for UK residents only and they will  announce details at the end of the month.

I did not know P&O was in the Carnival family since they are clearly UK centric 2nd tier line.  The factors that apply to them do not automatically transfer to Cunard.

 

Do you think that by July 1st the UK will modify their quarentine regulations based on the vaccination status of travelers?

 

Also for reference, are you a UK citizen?

[IB2]

Sadly I rather suspect we’re not going to see much cruising this year, except for an outside chance of the autumn.  Almost exactly a year ago I suggested cruising would likely be cancelled for the rest of 2020; no-one imagined the crisis would be ongoing a year later.

[majortom10]

1 hour ago, untailored bostonian said:

I did not know P&O was in the Carnival family since they are clearly UK centric 2nd tier line.  The factors that apply to them do not automatically transfer to Cunard.

 

Do you think that by July 1st the UK will modify their quarentine regulations based on the vaccination status of travelers?

 

Also for reference, are you a UK citizen?

Yes I am a UK citizen and nobody knows when the quarantine regulations will end. P&O and Princess who P&O owned merged with Carnival in 2003. P&O were due to be merged with RCCL but at the last minute Carnival trumped them and rumour had it that they only merged with P&O because Carnival wanted to get their hands on Princess. Just for your information P&O are certainly not 2nd tier. Cunard and P&O are based in the same building in Southampton under the umbrella of Carnival UK and land based staff dont work for Cunard or P&O but for Carnival UK and contrary to opinion are very closely run sister companies as part of Carnival plc.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2021 by majortom10

[untailored bostonian]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

Yes I am a UK citizen and nobody knows when the quarantine regulations will end. P&O and Princess who P&O owned merged with Carnival in 2003. P&O were due to be merged with RCCL but at the last minute Carnival trumped them and rumour had it that they only merged with P&O because Carnival wanted to get their hands on Princess. Just for your information P&O are certainly not 2nd tier. Cunard and P&O are based in the same building in Southampton under the umbrella of Carnival UK and land based staff dont work for Cunard or P&O but for Carnival UK and contrary to opinion are very closely run sister companies as part of Carnival plc.

 

 

After a rocky start, the UK has been a model for controlling the pandemic.  I wish the US had established similar mandated and enforced quarentine rules.

 

South Korea also has been a model for covid controls.  Had the US followed their lead as many as 500k deaths could have been prevented in my country.

 

I have left the bracketed section as proof of an Americans ignoranc.  They seem to have upgrade their fleet with recent builds. Plus a 2022 build.  Is the fleet just those 6 ships?

 

[By second tier I meant they build fewer new ships and have purchased ships that are older]  While looking at worldwide cruises I have found their price point attractive.  I think, based on reading reviews, that their customer service to be as good as any "main" cruise operators.  Maybe a line like Fred Olsen, Pullmantur Cruise,  Sorry for my provincial myopia.

 

The fact that they are so UK centric keeps them off an American's radar.

 

[untailored bostonian]

2 hours ago, majortom10 said:

Yes I am a UK citizen and nobody knows when the quarantine regulations will end. 

I follow a British "doctor" all though I am not sure of his formal title within your NHS.

 

Dr. John Campbell.  Has a YouTube Chanelle with at least daily covid information.  Excellent source, and I love his style and the quality of his data.

 

I do not hear UK media.  What is the main stream read on these standards which for now see scheduled to end 6/29?  I believe the vaccination rates in the UK are between 30% to 40% with their first jabs. [Love that word. It is being taken up in the states.]

 

You perspective has me thinking I need to cancel this cruise before the "Paid in full date".  Based on my very well informed covid data and information, I am 100% certian that standards and restrictions on fully vaccinated travelers "should" be reformed by July.  But then who's asking me?

 

What is the sense in the UK?

[untailored bostonian]

2 hours ago, IB2 said:

Sadly I rather suspect we’re not going to see much cruising this year, except for an outside chance of the autumn.  Almost exactly a year ago I suggested cruising would likely be cancelled for the rest of 2020; no-one imagined the crisis would be ongoing a year later.

Covid, the endemic infectious sars-cov-2,  is NEVER going away.  Vaccines will, imnho based on readings in journals,  only provide "immunity level" responces in 70% or fewer vaccinated individuals. At least 25% of vacinated will still catch covid. Of those most will be asymptomatic but potential vectors of community spread.

 

In those vacinated and infected, almost 100% will have mild cases and not need hospital care.  This is the real value of these vaccines.

 

But expect mitigation onboard ships to remain in place, perhaps for ever.  Masks, Limmited sized gatherings, and I would hope increase medical care.  Ships may be required to be able to perform covid test with 2 hour results.  I would hope that some rooms be set aside as quarentine space.

 

What is very interesting is how sars-cov-2 has "killed off" flu viruses.  There are speculations as to the mechanisms involve, and there are recent historic cases of other viral outbreaks delaying flu outbreaks.  There is a "buzz" that R&D into this may lead to a class of vaccines intended to keep a virus from infecting humans.  Speculative to be sure but very interesting.

[majortom10]

1 hour ago, untailored bostonian said:

After a rocky start, the UK has been a model for controlling the pandemic.  I wish the US had established similar mandated and enforced quarentine rules.

 

South Korea also has been a model for covid controls.  Had the US followed their lead as many as 500k deaths could have been prevented in my country.

 

I have left the bracketed section as proof of an Americans ignoranc.  They seem to have upgrade their fleet with recent builds. Plus a 2022 build.  Is the fleet just those 6 ships?

 

[By second tier I meant they build fewer new ships and have purchased ships that are older]  While looking at worldwide cruises I have found their price point attractive.  I think, based on reading reviews, that their customer service to be as good as any "main" cruise operators.  Maybe a line like Fred Olsen, Pullmantur Cruise,  Sorry for my provincial myopia.

 

The fact that they are so UK centric keeps them off an American's radar.

 

P&O UK (not to be mixed up with P&O Aus different company) currently have 6 ships, 1 which is brand new and not had a maiden cruise due to pandemic Iona, Britannia 2015, Azura 2010, Ventura 2008, Arcadia 2005 and Aurora 2000 all ships built for P&O and not purchased from any other company. Iona should have sailed in 2020 and they currently have on order a new build ship for 2022.

[ace2542]

21 hours ago, Ray66 said:

 

The first TA is now 23rd June.

So they must think the U.S travel ban and UK quarantine situation will be lifted by June 23rd. Perhaps they know something we don't. The UK has a roadmap laid out but we have heard nothing further from the Biden administration regarding the opening of borders.

[ace2542]

1 hour ago, untailored bostonian said:

But expect mitigation onboard ships to remain in place, perhaps for ever.  Masks, Limmited sized gatherings, and I would hope increase medical care.  Ships may be required to be able to perform covid test with 2 hour results.  I would hope that some rooms be set aside as quarentine space

Then I don't see cruising surviving at least not the Cunard brand not the QM2. Not if cruising is the only vacation type to need mask et al. Not based on the backlash from the solo travellers on here alone - who have argued and correctly I might add - that for them is no point in going if they have to be alone the entire time. I can also imagine the LGBT market not reacting very well if they can't have their heavily attended social meetups and there have been more than 100 in attendance in the past. And we haven't even mentioned the ballroom dancing and afternoon tea. And I don't suppose there is much point to this forum anymore if that meetup too cannot take place.

 

And increased medical care will require retrofitting of the ship I imagine.

Edited March 9, 2021 by ace2542

[Calliope]

On 3/8/2021 at 7:02 PM, Ray66 said:

 

The first TA is now 23rd June.

Unless you are privy to facts unknown to us in the U.S. and in  Cunard's  California office, the June 9 west-bound QM 2 crossing has not been canceled and still remains the first crossing and second sailing this year.  At this time, however, further bookings are not being taken on those two voyages nor any other QM2 cruise till June 23.

[untailored bostonian]

4 hours ago, majortom10 said:

P&O UK (not to be mixed up with P&O Aus different company) currently have 6 ships, 1 which is brand new and not had a maiden cruise due to pandemic Iona, Britannia 2015, Azura 2010, Ventura 2008, Arcadia 2005 and Aurora 2000 all ships built for P&O and not purchased from any other company. Iona should have sailed in 2020 and they currently have on order a new build ship for 2022.

When thigs settle down, I may book a float with them.

 

Btw, I canceled the August cruise and rebooted for May 2022.  A bit heart breaking since it is our 50th on that cruise.

[untailored bostonian]

3 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Then I don't see cruising surviving at least not the Cunard brand not the QM2. Not if cruising is the only vacation type to need mask et al. Not based on the backlash from the solo travellers on here alone - who have argued and correctly I might add - that for them is no point in going if they have to be alone the entire time. I can also imagine the LGBT market not reacting very well if they can't have their heavily attended social meetups and there have been more than 100 in attendance in the past. And we haven't even mentioned the ballroom dancing and afternoon tea. And I don't suppose there is much point to this forum anymore if that meetup too cannot take place.

 

And increased medical care will require retrofitting of the ship I imagine.

Covid has changed the world for ever. Don't expect crowds to be shoulder to shoulder at any venue. Not at NFL. NBA, MLB. No more large concerts. No crowded Vegas casinos and shows.. You can figure out the rest.

 

Vaccines will only change the pandemic into endemic  covid.  You may need to get vaccinated more than once a year.  Good public health standards will be to always wear masks. Covid test prior to travel will remain.

 

How long? Maybe forever.  We don't know what we don't know, but covid and it's variants are now a forever.

[IB2]

4 hours ago, untailored bostonian said:

Covid has changed the world for ever. Don't expect crowds to be shoulder to shoulder at any venue. Not at NFL. NBA, MLB. No more large concerts. No crowded Vegas casinos and shows.. You can figure out the rest.

 

Vaccines will only change the pandemic into endemic  covid.  You may need to get vaccinated more than once a year.  Good public health standards will be to always wear masks. Covid test prior to travel will remain.

 

How long? Maybe forever.  We don't know what we don't know, but covid and it's variants are now a forever.

No, you’re exhibiting the same tendency to project the current state of the world forward, and to not realise how dramatically things can sometimes change, that those posters did who exclaimed in surprise (*surprise* being the polite responses) when I suggested all cruising was about to be cancelled back in March 2020.

 

The pandemic will recede, and we will get back to a point when it seems as if everything has returned to normal (I say “seems” because there are usually longer term changes triggered by major crisis events that take years to play out - as we now see with the 2008/9 financial crisis).  That may well be as early as this summer, if the warmer northern hemisphere weather proves as effective at driving case numbers down as last year.  More likely, however, with new variants and patchy progress of vaccination around the world, we are talking 2022.

[untailored bostonian]

10 hours ago, IB2 said:

No, you’re exhibiting the same tendency to project the current state of the world forward, and to not realise how dramatically things can sometimes change, that those posters did who exclaimed in surprise (*surprise* being the polite responses) when I suggested all cruising was about to be cancelled back in March 2020.

 

The pandemic will recede, and we will get back to a point when it seems as if everything has returned to normal (I say “seems” because there are usually longer term changes triggered by major crisis events that take years to play out - as we now see with the 2008/9 financial crisis).  That may well be as early as this summer, if the warmer northern hemisphere weather proves as effective at driving case numbers down as last year. More likely, however, with new variants and patchy progress of vaccination around the world, we are talking 2022.

You are dead wrong.  Covid is NEVER going away. Mutations, that we now know occur more rapidly than any viroligist thought, will make covid an ever present danger.

 

Covid is less seasonal than the flu as we discovered last summer with the surge that exceed the initial springtime surge.  The current vaccines, as we already know, are less effective against the UK, South African, and the two Brazilian variants.  I have not seen data on the Californian or NY variants yet, but the specific mutation sights are inline with the first 3.  There is also an Oregon variant that has been this past week discovered, and is believed to be in community spread, that has mutations in specific genetic location that could make it even more virulent and more resistant to current vaccines.

 

Yes, as we get vaccinated we will see less serious disease, but understand that at least 25% of those vacinated will STILL get covid.  People who have had covid will catch covid again even after vaccinations.  Now the best estimates of the experts based on post vaccinated cases show that nearly none get ill enough to become critically ill. In fact many are asymptomatic or mild "stay at home" cases. BUT  they are still infectious and still can spread the virus after vaccination.

 

Certainly the pandemic is going to become endemic.  Yes endemic covid after 2020 will seem more normal. However, public heath experts will still advise mask use in public.  Of courses that will be ignored by the "I have my rights you can't take away my freedoms" simpletons, putting all of us at risk.

 

How can you possibly with any credibility say "That may well be as early as this summer, if the warmer northern hemisphere weather proves as effective at driving case numbers down as last year."  Just look at the surge last summer, and that surge was driven by just 4 states, TX, FL, AZ, and sourhern CA which are extremely hot at that time of the year.  We don't know what we don't know, but we do know the warm weather does not reduce the risk of community spread. Frankly your statement is disinformation and not correlated with the data.

 

Most of the 3rd world will not get vaccinated until late 2022, more likely 2023, because the first world nations are going to hoard vaccines.  Countries like the UK and the US will be able to vaccinate their entire populations by mid-june.  In England they are using the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine as a single shot with a second shot several months later. As of now they already have a third of their citizens protected by their first jab.  The US regime and vaccine-types are different.  Only about 10% are fully vaccinated and 20% have had at least 1 jab.

 

By the time of the August 22nd cruise both countries, UK and US, will be nearly fully vaccinated. But in the US the antideluvian anti-vaxer's, the antigoverment folk, and the "It has nanotechnology that will be activated by G5 that will control your mind" dimwits will refuse to take the vaccine. They will tell you it's their right and no one can steal their freedoms.  That will be about 20%+ of American adults. Children under 16 will not be vaccinated until mid to late fall.

 

Yes, 2022 is going to feel "normal" after 2020 and 2021. But we, and the world, are going to see a new surge in April even as we vaccinate because of the current know variants.  It hopefully won't be worse than last summer's surge levels [Remember how some one told us it would all just go away with warmer weather?]  

 

We will control the virus with updated covid booster shots,  maybe twice a year, for a while. But that vaccination regime will not be enough.  2022 will still have public health experts telling us we need to mask up.  They will still advise to not have mass gatherings like concerts and sporting events. Airlines will try to maintain mask requirements, as they should. [The federal mask mandates in transportation may not be lifted for a year or more.] Venues like Universal Orlando and the world wide Disney will likely not change mask standards for a year or more.  Small groups socially distancing is a permanent social standard for the foreseeable future.

 

Think 2023 as when we ease public health best practices.  That is dependent on continued, improved, vaccine efficacy and current antiviral treatments being developed.  Covid-19 has been a teachable moment. The mRNA vaccines will impact next generation flu vaccines and cancer treatment. There is a silver lining to sars-cov-2.

 

But don't fool your self, there will be other zoonotic viral outbreaks.  [Flu btw is a zoonotic virus.]  Do you know about the G4 swine flu in China the is transferring to humans and which may be like the 2009 pandemic flu?

Edited March 10, 2021 by untailored bostonian
Word substitution