Viking's COVID Measures are working--Important Read

[rbslos18]

The article below is a must read. The Viking Health Protocol is working. Since May Viking had over 19,000 passengers, did 2000 PCR tests and had ONLY 32 passengers with a positive PCR tests. That means (if my math is correct) .00168% of Viking passengers tested positive for COVID. It is likely safer being on a Viking ship and taking a cruise than living in any country in the world. Way to go Viking.

https://www.10best.com/interests/healthy-travel/viking-cruise-pandemic-covid-safety/

Bob

[angela miller]

I just returned from a Viking River cruise, Paris to Normandy on September 5. I was so impressed with the way they handled the situation. We are scheduled now to travel on an ocean cruise in November with Viking  and I feel very comfortable. Way to go Viking!

[JeriGail]

22 minutes ago, rbslos18 said:

The article below is a must read. The Viking Health Protocol is working. Since May Viking had over 19,000 passengers, did 2000 PCR tests and had ONLY 32 passengers with a positive PCR tests. That means (if my math is correct) .00168% of Viking passengers tested positive for COVID.

32 divided by 19,000 = .00168, but for the percentage, you need to move the decimal point 2 places to the right, so the % is .168% - still very impressive!

[rbslos18]

17 minutes ago, JeriGail said:

32 divided by 19,000 = .00168, but for the percentage, you need to move the decimal point 2 places to the right, so the % is .168% - still very impressive!

I joyfully stand corrected, humbled (and embarrassed) and hope no one who went to Columbia reports me!!!! 

Thanks JeriGail.

[JM0115]

1 hour ago, rbslos18 said:

The article below is a must read. The Viking Health Protocol is working. Since May Viking had over 19,000 passengers, did 2000 PCR tests and had ONLY 32 passengers with a positive PCR tests. That means (if my math is correct) .00168% of Viking passengers tested positive for COVID. It is likely safer being on a Viking ship and taking a cruise than living in any country in the world. Way to go Viking.

https://www.10best.com/interests/healthy-travel/viking-cruise-pandemic-covid-safety/

Bob

Just to correct the above good information...the article says that they have performed 200,000 tests!

[riverotter]

What wonderful news.  Could someone who may be familiar with Viking's very protocols be able to sum up what they believe might be the combination that gives these good results?  Viking is pricey for me, but with a continued safety record I might be willing.

[formernuke]

The details are spelled out on the web page.

https://www.vikingcruises.com/oceans/my-trip/health-and-safety/health-and-safety-program.html

 

[njhorseman]

Some musings of a retired actuary...

 

Just to play devil's advocate, would results be much  different on any of the other cruise lines (for example NCL, Oceania, Regent and Crystal...perhaps some others) that require 100% of their passengers and crew  to be vaccinated and require all embarking passengers to be tested for COVID? 

 

Yes, daily testing presumably heads off some transmission on board, but instead of 32 positive passengers, in an environment of fully vaccinated people just how much transmission would actually take place? A transmission rate of 1.00 would double the number of cases to 64, but 1.00 is probably far too high in a fully vaccinated environment bubble, where you essentially have "herd immunity".  Even at double the number of cases the percentage of passengers testing positive would be very low. You'd be saying "wow" if 32 were 64 .

 

Don't get me wrong...it's great that Viking tests every passenger every day, but this article is more a PR piece than a startling scientific result.

 

 

[rbslos18]

25 minutes ago, riverotter said:

What wonderful news.  Could someone who may be familiar with Viking's very protocols be able to sum up what they believe might be the combination that gives these good results?  Viking is pricey for me, but with a continued safety record I might be willing.

1) Everyone on the ship is vaccinated

2) Daily PCR tests onboard--ships have an onboard lab

3) Pre-cruise COVID test

4) Outstanding sanitation onboard

5) Only allowing ship excursions in areas where COVID is an issue (controversial for some)

6) Everyone wears a contact tracing pendant

It is very impressive. When I shared with my concerned kids I was going on a cruise they had to acknowledge the ship is safer than any place I go in town.

 

The only thing Viking can't control and which may have caused some of the cases is people letting their guard down at the airport or on the plane. Most cases emerge the 3rd or 4th day of the cruise. 

[TayanaLorna]

1 hour ago, JM0115 said:

Just to correct the above good information...the article says that they have performed 200,000 tests!

Right JM0015.  2000 tests did not make sense because Viking tests each passenger daily.

[TayanaLorna]

9 minutes ago, rbslos18 said:

1) Everyone on the ship is vaccinated

2) Daily PCR tests onboard--ships have an onboard lab

3) Pre-cruise COVID test

4) Outstanding sanitation onboard

5) Only allowing ship excursions in areas where COVID is an issue (controversial for some)

6) Everyone wears a contact tracing pendant

It is very impressive. When I shared with my concerned kids I was going on a cruise they had to acknowledge the ship is safer than any place I go in town.

 

The only thing Viking can't control and which may have caused some of the cases is people letting their guard down at the airport or on the plane. Most cases emerge the 3rd or 4th day of the cruise. 

Exactly.  Testing before we leave home is valuable but irrelevant if we relax our protocols between that test and arrival on board the ship. 

[rbslos18]

2 hours ago, JM0115 said:

Just to correct the above good information...the article says that they have performed 200,000 tests!

Good catch JM! Slippage on my part. I need a cruise!

[LindaS272]

And masking on the ship except in state room and when eating or drinking. Plus social distancing to the extent possible. I haven’t been on a ship yet this year but have been reading thousands of posts!

[kent9xxx1]

So not sure what they accomplished with all these daily testings.  

People are already vaccinated before boarding.  32 cases out of 19k are what they called "break through" cases.  The rest of them are very unlikely to catch from these people. 

 

How many people got quarantined and booted off because of these 32 people?  I guess a lot more than 32.  

[rbslos18]

25 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

So not sure what they accomplished with all these daily testings.  

People are already vaccinated before boarding.  32 cases out of 19k are what they called "break through" cases.  The rest of them are very unlikely to catch from these people. 

 

How many people got quarantined and booted off because of these 32 people?  I guess a lot more than 32.  

You are right. It only gives part of the picture. This is clearly a work in process. My guess is the number of PCR negative quarantined cruisers is probably at least 100. I still believe 32 positive cases is impressive. I hope they will adjust the daily testing as they learn more and have better data.

[Heidi13]

4 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Some musings of a retired actuary...

 

Just to play devil's advocate, would results be much  different on any of the other cruise lines (for example NCL, Oceania, Regent and Crystal...perhaps some others) that require 100% of their passengers and crew  to be vaccinated and require all embarking passengers to be tested for COVID? 

 

Yes, daily testing presumably heads off some transmission on board, but instead of 32 positive passengers, in an environment of fully vaccinated people just how much transmission would actually take place? A transmission rate of 1.00 would double the number of cases to 64, but 1.00 is probably far too high in a fully vaccinated environment bubble, where you essentially have "herd immunity".  Even at double the number of cases the percentage of passengers testing positive would be very low. You'd be saying "wow" if 32 were 64 .

 

Don't get me wrong...it's great that Viking tests every passenger every day, but this article is more a PR piece than a startling scientific result.

 

 

In British Columbia, we have attained "Herd Immunity", but our Provincial Health reports about 25% of the new daily infections are fully vaccinated, and that doesn't account for those asymptomatic that don't get tested. 

 

I concur the article is not a scientific paper, but rather than a PR piece, I consider it is a description of Viking's best in class health & safety plan, utilising risk analysis. I also note that you didn't negate Viking's efforts, so these are my thoughts, which are based on a risk management perspective.

 

Many cruise lines promulgate that safety is their number 1 concern, but with 40 yrs at sea, I note some possibly may not practice what they promulgate. I consider Viking's Health & Safety Program a comprehensive safety management plan, with multiple tiers, which is clearly based on a risk analysis.

 

A key component of any safety management plan is identifying and documenting close calls, to minimise the potential for a significant incident. Viking achieves this with daily testing and effective contact tracing. Viking quickly identifies any COVID brought aboard, and can isolate to minimise the potential for spread. In reference to the "Swiss Cheese Model", dealing effectively with small issues blocks the holes aligning and reduces the potential for the big issue.

 

Without daily testing, with respect to crew/pax  health & safety, I'll suggest the other cruise lines are utilising an avoidance strategy. Without knowing if/how much COVID was brought aboard, how can they effectively manage the risk. Yes, all pax tested negative at embarkation, but so did the Viking pax, with most testing positive on day 3 to 5. If transmission takes place onboard, those affected probably would NOT return positive tests until after disembarkation. Since many vaccinated are asymptmatic, most will not get tested, so we will never know the extent of transmission on short cruises with no daily testing.

 

Without daily testing we will never know the true numbers on other cruise lines. You speculated the number of COVID cases could double. Based on the number of cases Viking experienced, if the total doubled, I agree, it wouldn't be a significant increase. However, if transmission was consistent with our Provincial average of 25%, it could present an issue, especially on longer cruises.

 

Once the other cruise lines start longer cruises, if they continue the status quo, I won't be surprised to see another super-spreader cruise ship.

 

I also found the Chairman's reference to the comment that other cruise lines couldn't afford to implement Viking's testing regime. It reminded me of the mantra I used when developing a new Safety Management System for my last company

 

"Every company pays for safety, at one time or another"

 

 

[njhorseman]

29 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

In British Columbia, we have attained "Herd Immunity"

I'm not an epidemiologist, but about 71% of British Columbia's population is fully vaccinated (about the same percentage as in Canada as a whole), which is not sufficient to achieve herd immunity based on what we now know about how regularly COVID seems to mutate. In the early days of the pandemic, when little was known about the virus, numbers in the 70 percent range were bandied about by some as being sufficient to achieve herd immunity. I think we now realize that is far too low. 70% leaves just too many unvaccinated hosts to stop the spread of the virus  because of newly arising variants.

 

I know here in NJ the overwhelming majority of new cases are of the delta variant and we know that the vaccines are just not as effective against delta as they were against earlier variants. However our data show the vaccines are still very effective in preventing death and serious illness caused by delta. 

 

The 100% vaccinated environment on board the ship is vastly better at protecting against new cases than a 70% vaccinated environment is so comparing your provincial transmission percentage with the rate on board the ship just isn't valid. 

 

You've noted that most positives occur on days 3 to 5. That is not at all surprising as it would indicate those testing positive likely became infected while traveling to the ship. Airport and airplanes are crowded, compliance with and enforcement of masking rules can be sketchy, and the percentage of unvaccinated persons you come in contact with is likely substantial...as opposed to zero unvaccinated on board. The other source of infection is likely while passengers are touring ashore, where again masking isn't always followed and you may have contact with substantial numbers of unvaccinated persons.

 

Again, I don't want to dismiss the effectiveness Viking's protocols and they are likely to result in a  lower percentage of transmission on board. Viking should be congratulated on taking strong steps to protect passengers and crew. My question is whether it is a statistically significant lower transmission percentage than may occur on cruise lines with 100% vaccination but no daily testing. It's unlikely that anyone will ever have the data to study that question.

[fudgbug]

We had a negative PCR test within 48 hours of joining our Viking River Cruise and are fully vaccinated with Pfizer.  We joined the ship on a Wednesday, tested negative when we boarded and Thursday.  Friday afternoon we received a call that my husband had tested positive. I was negative.  We were confined to our cabin until arrangements could be made to get us off the ship.

 

Saturday afternoon Viking had us transported to a hotel in Frankfort, Germany where we are now in isolation.  The hotel has testing facilities on the property.  Saturday afternoon at the hotel an antigen test had us both negative.  A PCR test taken at the same time had my husband positive and me negative.

 

Another PCR test at the hotel was done yesterday and now both of us test positive.  We'll have another PCR test Monday.

 

Neither of us are sick or have any symptoms.  

 

Viking is doing a good job of protecting their guests.

 

I have to say that I believe that we may have been exposed when we went to have our within 48 hour PCR test as there were two women in the waiting room both masked and coughing.  One raised her mask to blow her nose....

Edited September 24, 2021 by fudgbug
added "for PCR test"

[bbtondo]

1 hour ago, fudgbug said:

We had a negative PCR test within 48 hours of joining our Viking River Cruise and are fully vaccinated with Pfizer.  We joined the ship on a Wednesday, tested negative when we boarded and Thursday.  Friday afternoon we received a call that my husband had tested positive. I was negative.  We were confined to our cabin until arrangements could be made to get us off the ship.

 

Saturday afternoon Viking had us transported to a hotel in Frankfort, Germany where we are now in isolation.  The hotel has testing facilities on the property.  Saturday afternoon at the hotel an antigen test had us both negative.  A PCR test taken at the same time had my husband positive and me negative.

 

Another PCR test at the hotel was done yesterday and now both of us test positive.  We'll have another PCR test Monday.

 

Neither of us are sick or have any symptoms.  

 

Viking is doing a good job of protecting their guests.

 

I have to say that I believe that we may have been exposed when we went to have our within 48 hour PCR test as there were two women in the waiting room both masked and coughing.  One raised her mask to blow her nose....

I'm so sorry this has happened to you.  I hope you both stay healthy and OK.

[Heidi13]

12 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I'm not an epidemiologist, but about 71% of British Columbia's population is fully vaccinated (about the same percentage as in Canada as a whole), which is not sufficient to achieve herd immunity based on what we now know about how regularly COVID seems to mutate. In the early days of the pandemic, when little was known about the virus, numbers in the 70 percent range were bandied about by some as being sufficient to achieve herd immunity. I think we now realize that is far too low. 70% leaves just too many unvaccinated hosts to stop the spread of the virus  because of newly arising variants.

 

I know here in NJ the overwhelming majority of new cases are of the delta variant and we know that the vaccines are just not as effective against delta as they were against earlier variants. However our data show the vaccines are still very effective in preventing death and serious illness caused by delta. 

 

The 100% vaccinated environment on board the ship is vastly better at protecting against new cases than a 70% vaccinated environment is so comparing your provincial transmission percentage with the rate on board the ship just isn't valid. 

 

You've noted that most positives occur on days 3 to 5. That is not at all surprising as it would indicate those testing positive likely became infected while traveling to the ship. Airport and airplanes are crowded, compliance with and enforcement of masking rules can be sketchy, and the percentage of unvaccinated persons you come in contact with is likely substantial...as opposed to zero unvaccinated on board. The other source of infection is likely while passengers are touring ashore, where again masking isn't always followed and you may have contact with substantial numbers of unvaccinated persons.

 

Again, I don't want to dismiss the effectiveness Viking's protocols and they are likely to result in a  lower percentage of transmission on board. Viking should be congratulated on taking strong steps to protect passengers and crew. My question is whether it is a statistically significant lower transmission percentage than may occur on cruise lines with 100% vaccination but no daily testing. It's unlikely that anyone will ever have the data to study that question.

 

Your numbers are a little low, as of yesterday our Provincial Health Officer reported, for 12 yrs and older, we have 79.9% fully vaccinated, with 87.3% having a single dose. Our Provincial Health initially said herd immunity could be attained at 80%, which we have achieved, now they are pushing for at least 90%.

 

The other factor to consider is the ease of getting counterfeit COVID cards, so although the ships require 100%, a number of pax may have counterfeit cards and be unvaccinated. That would be in addition to any children on board. On mainstream cruise lines that accept kids, with counterfeit cards they could easily have 5 to 10% of the pax unvaccinated.

 

During a risk analysis, counterfeit cards and kids should be identified as a risk that requires a risk mitigation. Viking mitigates this risk with daily testing, reducing the risk to ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable). This also ensure they meet their goal of the health & safety of their crew and pax is their # 1 concern.

 

Mainstream cruise lines normally accept kids and appeal to a younger demographic than Viking. I believe it is fairly consistent across N/America that vaccination rates are lower in younger people. With all the kids unvaccinated, plus an unknown number of counterfeit COVID cards, the number of unvaccinated could easily be 10%. This fact should have been raised in each cruise line's risk assessment. Since they have no obvious risk mitigation strategy, I can only assume that they determined the result of probability and consequence, is not major. The other cruise lines are comfortable with the potential for unknown amounts of COVID transmission aboard their vessels. With the Delta and newer variants, this could potentially increase.

 

Therefore, the other cruise lines are accepting the potential for COVID spread amongst the crew & pax. They may state the health & safety of crew & pax is their # 1 concern, but they sure don't put that into practice. This is consistent with my experience and that of our son, who both worked for cruise lines.

 

The question I would be asking the other cruise lines is why they also haven't reduced the COVID transmission risk to "ALARP" Since most Governments still don't recommend cruise ship travel, I'll suggest that daily testing meets the "Reasonably Practicable" criteria for ALARP.

[rbslos18]

7 hours ago, fudgbug said:

We had a negative PCR test within 48 hours of joining our Viking River Cruise and are fully vaccinated with Pfizer.  We joined the ship on a Wednesday, tested negative when we boarded and Thursday.  Friday afternoon we received a call that my husband had tested positive. I was negative.  We were confined to our cabin until arrangements could be made to get us off the ship.

 

Saturday afternoon Viking had us transported to a hotel in Frankfort, Germany where we are now in isolation.  The hotel has testing facilities on the property.  Saturday afternoon at the hotel an antigen test had us both negative.  A PCR test taken at the same time had my husband positive and me negative.

 

Another PCR test at the hotel was done yesterday and now both of us test positive.  We'll have another PCR test Monday.

 

Neither of us are sick or have any symptoms.  

 

Viking is doing a good job of protecting their guests.

 

I have to say that I believe that we may have been exposed when we went to have our within 48 hour PCR test as there were two women in the waiting room both masked and coughing.  One raised her mask to blow her nose....

Oh no. So sorry to hear this. What a letdown. I am convinced we will have to isolate before our cruise and not have tests done in an Urgent Care. You have confirmed this. I wish you and your husband a negative PCR test and hope you remain asymptomatic.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Heidi13 said:

 

Your numbers are a little low, as of yesterday our Provincial Health Officer reported, for 12 yrs and older, we have 79.9% fully vaccinated, with 87.3% having a single dose. Our Provincial Health initially said herd immunity could be attained at 80%, which we have achieved, now they are pushing for at least 90%.

No, my numbers are not low. You're citing different data. The 79.9% vaccinated you're citing are of eligible persons, the 71% vaccinated I'm citing are of the entire population. 

 

Those who are ineligible are a very key component of why we still have not reached herd immunity and why significant numbers of cases are still arising. Those children under age 12 are not only coming down with COVID themselves, they're transmitting it to others...the adolescents and adults in their households who even if vaccinated can still be the victims of breakthrough infections, particularly infections caused by delta and other newer variants that the vaccines are not as successful in fighting. I'd venture to say that because school year is only in its earliest weeks cases will continue to rise until a significant percentage of the 5 to 12 year-olds are vaccinated.

 

Your health officers are pushing for 90% (presumably of eligible persons) because that's the only way they're going to exceed 80% of the total population in the short term. However that still doesn't address the issue of school children being in close contact with a totally unvaccinated population hour after hour day after day week after week. 

 

I don't have an issue with the overall substance of your other statements, other than to question whether there are anywhere near as many counterfeit vaccination cards as you're speculating. My gut instincts say 10% counterfeit, particularly among those who are cruising, is far too high...and I made my living for many years having to trust my instincts when I didn't have actual data. Last I checked  my instincts didn't put any insurance companies out of business. 😉

Edited September 24, 2021 by njhorseman

[Jim Avery]

njhorseman, I agree about the fake CDC cards.  Not a big deal.  Of course there are people who will cheat. Who didn't know someone in high school or college with a fake ID, usually a driver's license.  And passports have been faked as long as there have been passports.  People cheat.  Sort of like the pathological liar who will lie even if the truth is a better tale.  So the electronic "passports" are the solution, right?  What about all the massive data breaches at just about any internet entity you could name?  My question is why would someone bother in order to cruise?  First, it is already a crime to fake a CDC card.  Next, you would have already signed a document with Viking attesting to your being fully vaccinated.  Is this a legal document?  Don't know.  I am not a lawyer so will leave that question to the legal eagles here in our group on CC.  So, to cheat and get aboard a fully vaccinated ship one has broken the law as well as violated a document which at the least would cause Viking to retain all monies paid, allow Viking to summarily dump one ashore at the next port, probably foreign, to make your own way home at your own expense as an unvaccinated foreigner.  Only a real idiot would think that risk/reward scenario was worth it.  And who does the faker hurt?  He/she puts their health at risk, risks arrest, and risks the aforementioned disembarkation.  No skin off my nose.  I have more important stuff to worry about instead of the minor problem of a faker cheating their way aboard a Viking ship.  Like wasting more of my "Golden Years" (and they start at 50 now according to AARP. right?) not traveling,  taxes, illegal border crashers, air pollution, etc. etc. etc.  Let's get on with living folks...🍺😎

Edited September 24, 2021 by Jim Avery

[riverotter]

On 9/23/2021 at 2:34 PM, rbslos18 said:

1) Everyone on the ship is vaccinated

2) Daily PCR tests onboard--ships have an onboard lab

3) Pre-cruise COVID test

4) Outstanding sanitation onboard

5) Only allowing ship excursions in areas where COVID is an issue (controversial for some)

6) Everyone wears a contact tracing pendant

It is very impressive. When I shared with my concerned kids I was going on a cruise they had to acknowledge the ship is safer than any place I go in town.

 

The only thing Viking can't control and which may have caused some of the cases is people letting their guard down at the airport or on the plane. Most cases emerge the 3rd or 4th day of the cruise. 

This is such a good list, and would be exactly what I would hold as a standard if I decided to cruise.  Thanks!

[philw1776]

I found pre-cruise PCR COVID test impossible in NH. Nobody cared Malta & Greek Isles 9 September.

Edited September 25, 2021 by philw1776