If Russia and Ukraine break out in a regional war what happens to cruises this summer in the Baltics?

[brittany12]

Reports this morning are even more frightening. And more threatening to the future safety of cruise travel as the inevitable escalations take place. Just heard the news about a Russian cargo ship being stopped in the English Channel by a French frigate. Will cruise ships in supposedly safe waters—far away from the  war zones— like in the Baltic be stopped by Russian warships? Also the news about Delta cutting its ties with Aeroflot and Russia banning British Air from Russian air space.  More will surely follow. Will our air travel to distant cruise ports to meet our ships on the other side of the world become more difficult if planes cannot fly over huge sovereign land masses? Russia today, China tomorrow? Or impossible?

[Guppy99]

21 hours ago, basor said:

Always the possibility that they are working on replacement ports and are using "days at sea" as a place holder until they have confirmed the new ports.   It would be impossible for a cruise line to have confirmed new ports in place of SPB in the last 24 - 48 hours.....we will wait a few weeks and see what the new itinerary looks like.

Exactly. They can't simply stop doing business.

[Guppy99]

1 hour ago, brittany12 said:

Reports this morning are even more frightening. And more threatening to the future safety of cruise travel as the inevitable escalations take place. Just heard the news about a Russian cargo ship being stopped in the English Channel by a French frigate. Will cruise ships in supposedly safe waters—far away from the  war zones— like in the Baltic be stopped by Russian warships? Also the news about Delta cutting its ties with Aeroflot and Russia banning British Air from Russian air space.  More will surely follow. Will our air travel to distant cruise ports to meet our ships on the other side of the world become more difficult if planes cannot fly over huge sovereign land masses? Russia today, China tomorrow? Or impossible?

This is how wars start these days.  Everyone is going to have to monitor the situation and make decision based on the itineraries they have planned in the future. Then you will have to use your own judgment as to what is acceptable and what is not.  No one, imo, should be sitting around waiting for a cruise line to make decisions for me.

[Harters]

2 hours ago, brittany12 said:

Will our air travel to distant cruise ports to meet our ships on the other side of the world become more difficult if planes cannot fly over huge sovereign land masses?

Inevitable.

 

Regardless of whether Russia denies, say, British planes from over-flying its territory, it would very possibly be not safe to do so.

 

We are probably not heading for World War 3 here but the responses to Russia's invasion of a sovereign European country must be severe and long lasting. Russia's veiled threats to Finland and Sweden are very worrying.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Harters

[pinotlover]

I would say that those flights over the North Pole such as JFK-PEK or JFK-Bombay are now history, Even DFW-PEK or ORD-PEK.  Just getting to Peking from the U.S., while avoiding Russian airspace, will become a much longer trip.

 

Some of we older international travelers remember Russia shooting down a KAL flight back in the 80s. I think they did the same a few years back with one of the European lines. 

[Harters]

54 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I think they did the same a few years back with one of the European lines. 

I guess you're referring to the shooting down of a Malaysian Airlines flight from Amsterdam in 2014. That incident is highly relevent to current events, as it occured over Ukraine and is generally believed to have been carried out by the Russian backed separatists in the east of the country, using Russian made weapons.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Harters

[brittany12]

 Responses have to be "severe and long lasting" is exactly right and  has to be our collective wish. IMHU, I think we have just seen the opening battle of WW3. Today Ukraine, tomorrow quite possibly the rest of Europe and the US drawn in. Are his threats to go nuclear real? Normal deterrents do not work when you are dealing with a criminal madman intent on rebuilding the old Soviet Union. If all of Kyvv is leveled to the ground like Berlin was in '44-45, would he care? World stand by? Nowhere is safe now.

[su-arizona]

See the recent news post that FDR announced cancelling all St Petersburg stops for all NCLH ships.

 

[RD64]

Pinotlover may be referring to September 1983 when a Korean airlines passenger plane was shot down when it allegedly strayed into Russian airspace. I do not remember the exact details, but recall the event well, because a local girl was on that flight, and her identity card was one of the few things ever recovered.

[Harters]

3 hours ago, brittany12 said:

quite possibly the rest of Europe

You'd like to hope that even Putin would not rashly attack other of the former satellite countries of the Soviet Union that are now part of the European Union and NATO. It would indeed by madness. But we're getting way off topic for a cruise forum.

[Hawaiidan]

5 hours ago, Harters said:

Inevitable.

 

Regardless of whether Russia denies, say, British planes from over-flying its territory, it would very possibly be not safe to do so.

 

We are probably not heading for World War 3 here but the responses to Russia's invasion of a sovereign European country must be severe and long lasting. Russia's veiled threats to Finland and Sweden are very worrying.

Poland too and threats to Sweeden and Finland if the go NATO.... No ship is going  anywhere near the Baltic for many, many years to come in my opinion.   Not since 1939 has the situation been this fragile AND FORGET the Balkans too.  With Chinas  support of  the Russian's this could  effect the South China Sea .   Remember Russia has a East coast too....  Gulf of alaska and sea of Japan could be next  hot spot

Edited February 26, 2022 by Hawaiidan

[susiesan]

So Dan, with O having 8most of their fleet in Europe this summer, one ship dedicated to the Baltics,  and others touching ports close, where do you propose O position their ships for summer 2022? There are already 4 ships sailing Med itineraries. If all of the cruise lines do this the Med is going to be mighty crowded this summer.

[pinotlover]

20 hours ago, su-arizona said:

See the recent news post that FDR announced cancelling all St Petersburg stops for all NCLH ships.

 

The single cruise previously going over the top of Europe to Marmesk, Archangel, and the White Sea is really going to be affected. Nordkapp and turn around!

[mrlevin]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

The single cruise previously going over the top of Europe to Marmesk, Archangel, and the White Sea is really going to be affected. Nordkapp and turn around!

I am hoping the five days in White Sea will be replaced by trip to Longyearbyen and scenic cruising some of the fjords of Svalbard.

Edited February 27, 2022 by mrlevin

[basor]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

The single cruise previously going over the top of Europe to Marmesk, Archangel, and the White Sea is really going to be affected. Nordkapp and turn around!

 We are on this cruise, rebooked from 2021, and afraid that we will be canceling.    We will wait until O updates the itinerary to decide.

[LHT28]

42 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

I am hoping the five days in White Sea will be replaced by trip to Longyearbyen and scenic cruising some of the fjords of Svalbard.

we enjoyed our stop in Svalbard 

we had booked a private tour with our friend but the tour guide  was a no show  so we just enjoyed the town & went to their museum there  it was well worth the price of admission

 

 

[CintiPam]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

The single cruise previously going over the top of Europe to Marmesk, Archangel, and the White Sea is really going to be affected. Nordkapp and turn around!

That precisely is the reason we sailed Azamara to see Norway in the summer of 2016. Spouse refused to visit Putinland so we had a great two weeks going RT Amsterdam to all Norwegian-only ports, to Nordkapp and back, a wonderful cruise to a very beautiful part of the world.

Edited February 27, 2022 by CintiPam

[navelgunner]

4 hours ago, pinotlover said:

The single cruise previously going over the top of Europe to Marmesk, Archangel, and the White Sea is really going to be affected. Nordkapp and turn around!

I've already cancelled out of that one.  There are not many alternate ports up there.   Perhaps a visit to Iceland, or the Shetlands could be added.  I'm sure the folks at O are looking at multiple options.

 

As for the Med, on 21 Feb the Russian navy has a surface action group in the Ionian Sea, and another in the Eastern Mediterranean.   With their support base in Tartarus, these vessels do not have to transit the Bosporous to return to the Black Sea.

[navelgunner]

25 minutes ago, navelgunner said:

I've already cancelled out of that one.  There are not many alternate ports up there.   Perhaps a visit to Iceland, or the Shetlands could be added.  I'm sure the folks at O are looking at multiple options.

 

As for the Med, on 21 Feb the Russian navy has a surface action group in the Ionian Sea, and another in the Eastern Mediterranean.   With their support base in Tartarus, these vessels do not have to transit the Bosporous to return to the Black Sea.

That should have said Tartus, not Tartarus... Sorry.

 

[Hawaiidan]

51 minutes ago, navelgunner said:

I've already cancelled out of that one.  There are not many alternate ports up there.   Perhaps a visit to Iceland, or the Shetlands could be added.  I'm sure the folks at O are looking at multiple options.

 

As for the Med, on 21 Feb the Russian navy has a surface action group in the Ionian Sea, and another in the Eastern Mediterranean.   With their support base in Tartarus, these vessels do not have to transit the Bosporous to return to the Black Sea.

Correct...and with the  putin tactical deployment order this morning , Russian assets will deploy world wide so as to present difficult targets.... That is being done as we speak.    The veiled threat is that if I do not win in Ukraine  then I will destroy the US and Europe   ( china left out???)     That is indeed worrisome for all the free world..  This   is Putin's dooms-day plan if Russia fails in Ukraine  with global help............

[ToxM]

Well if the worst happens I hope I am on a ship with a drink in one hand and my husband’s hand on the other. 

 

 

[Jayne E]

Would be helpful if O shortened the Final Payment window on upcoming summer European/Med cruises. Payment on Aug. 28 Riviera due in 4 weeks…..already cancelled May 2022 due to FP 5 months in advance. 

[ExArkie]

3 hours ago, Jayne E said:

Would be helpful if O shortened the Final Payment window on upcoming summer European/Med cruises. Payment on Aug. 28 Riviera due in 4 weeks…..already cancelled May 2022 due to FP 5 months in advance. 

Your final payment timing is different from ours. We are booked on Marina in the Baltic for August 17 (which we will undoubtedly be cancelling soon), but our final payment date is shown as May 19, 2022, which is about 90 days out if I counted correctly. 
 

Four weeks from today would put your final payment due around 150 days from embarkation day? Does Oceania have that much variability in their payment terms? (Sorry, my first time with Oceania. Still figuring out the process.) 

[terrydtx]

1 hour ago, ExArkie said:

Your final payment timing is different from ours. We are booked on Marina in the Baltic for August 17 (which we will undoubtedly be cancelling soon), but our final payment date is shown as May 19, 2022, which is about 90 days out if I counted correctly. 
 

Four weeks from today would put your final payment due around 150 days from embarkation day? Does Oceania have that much variability in their payment terms? (Sorry, my first time with Oceania. Still figuring out the process.) 

Before we canceled our Aug 7th Baltic cruise, our FP date was May 9th or 90 days out.

[PhD-iva]

2 hours ago, ExArkie said:

Your final payment timing is different from ours. We are booked on Marina in the Baltic for August 17 (which we will undoubtedly be cancelling soon), but our final payment date is shown as May 19, 2022, which is about 90 days out if I counted correctly. 
 

Four weeks from today would put your final payment due around 150 days from embarkation day? Does Oceania have that much variability in their payment terms? (Sorry, my first time with Oceania. Still figuring out the process.) 

Generally FP is based on length of cruise; longer cruises have earlier FP dates. Might also depend on number of segments.
Someone more knowledgeable is sure to post here…..

PS lately FP for some itins have been pushed back - on a case by case basis…..

Edited February 28, 2022 by PhD-iva
Add PS