When will Carnival shares be worth buying ?

[NewWestwardbound]

3 hours ago, molecrochip said:

2023 booking trends are still up towards the highs seen in 2019.

Thanks. I suppose another useful piece of data would be the volume of bookings bringing in new cash vs those soaking up FCCs. 

[wowzz]

I believe Moley took his figures from a financial up date issued on Wednesday.  Other figures of interest:

 

U.S. GAAP net loss of $1.8 billion and adjusted net loss of $1.9 billion for the second quarter of 2022.
 
Cash from operations turned positive in the second quarter of 2022.
 
Second quarter 2022 ended with $7.5 billion of liquidity, including cash, short-term investments and borrowings available under the company's revolving credit facility.
 
Revenue increased by nearly 50% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to first quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement. For the cruise segments, revenue per passenger cruise day ("PCD") for the second quarter of 2022 decreased slightly compared to a strong 2019.
 
Occupancy in the second quarter of 2022 was 69%, an increase from 54% in the prior quarter.
Customer deposits increased $1.4 billion to $5.1 billion as of May 31, 2022 from $3.7 billion as of February 28, 2022.
 
As of June 24, 2022, 91% of the company's capacity is in guest cruise operation.
 
Booking volumes for all future sailings during the second quarter of 2022 were nearly double the booking volumes during the first quarter of 2022; the company notes these were its best quarterly booking volumes since the beginning of the pandemic.

[BouncingWheel]

Seems positive news to me and I guess that is why the shares are going back up now.

However, I do take the news on 2023 bookings etc... against 2019 numbers with a pinch of salt because it is the value of the bookings and not the number which is important. Then later, it will be the spend of those passengers against equivalents. The $ comments mentioned do seem to mostly be favourable though.

 

This could mean those that recently bought shares may have bought at the low point and we may now have had our answer to posted question: Thursday 23rd June. 

We will know for sure over the coming weeks.

 

[Selbourne]

In terms of P&O specifically, I can’t help but feel that the percentage of total cabins occupied would be the most telling statistic. I don’t know the exact stats, but with Iona and Arvia the number of cabins has increased massively since 2019. I would have thought that until bookings are ahead of 2019 levels by the same percentage that passenger capacity has increased by, they are going backwards, not forwards. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Selbourne

[Cruisemeister2002]

We must remember Carnival is not just about P&O. Two Costa ships will sail from the US in the coming months and Cunard have the Queen Anne in the pipeline. Many people such as myself can't wait to cruise again. We have two cruises booked for next year. Ventura in the early months and the Iona in the Autumn. Hopefully God willing we will then get back to having at least one cruise per year as the last one we had was back in 2018. I would suggest there are many that will continue to book cruises in the future. The economy may have some affect on how much people spend on board. But many will also say we won't let what's happening at home dampen our enthusiasm to have a good time as life's too short and there are no pockets in a shroud.

[funinhounslow]

3 hours ago, BouncingWheel said:

 

This could mean those that recently bought shares may have bought at the low point and we may now have had our answer to posted question: Thursday 23rd June. 

We will know for sure over the coming weeks.

 

Just a shame we didn’t know this on Wednesday 22nd June…

[terrierjohn]

On 6/25/2022 at 4:37 PM, Selbourne said:

In terms of P&O specifically, I can’t help but feel that the percentage of total cabins occupied would be the most telling statistic. I don’t know the exact stats, but with Iona and Arvia the number of cabins has increased massively since 2019. I would have thought that until bookings are ahead of 2019 levels by the same percentage that passenger capacity has increased by, they are going backwards, not forwards. 

You keep repeating the same things Selbourne, but Arvia bookings started at least 2 years ago, so P&O/Carnival will already have factored those into the current statistics.

[majortom10]

3 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

You keep repeating the same things Selbourne, but Arvia bookings started at least 2 years ago, so P&O/Carnival will already have factored those into the current statistics.

Think you are a bit wide of the mark saying bookings for Arvia started at least 2 yrs ago.

 

[molecrochip]

On 6/25/2022 at 2:10 PM, wowzz said:

The figures quoted refer to CCL as a total, not to P&O specifically.

That said, I believe that P&O is second behind CCL in % of available cabins occupied. In the investor call, it was actually noted that the UK brands had bounced back almost as well as CCL. Princess is hampered by its Asia/Oz market being closed still. Aida has been caught by the slower release of restrictions in Germany.

 

Costa is hurting from having ships for China/South America it can't sail and also from the fact that its core market is Mediterranean, often fly to cruise, and Eastern European.  So many smaller issues affecting Costa.

[terrierjohn]

3 hours ago, majortom10 said:

Think you are a bit wide of the mark saying bookings for Arvia started at least 2 yrs ago.

 

I think the 2023 winter programme was either launched in spring or autumn 2021, so either just over or under 2 years ago.

[majortom10]

10 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

I think the 2023 winter programme was either launched in spring or autumn 2021, so either just over or under 2 years ago.

If programme for Arvia started in Spring 2021 then it is only just over 12 months ago and not bookings started 2yrs ago as you stated. If it was 2yrs ago when bookings started that would mean Spring 2020 when it clearly wasn't that early.

 

[BrianI]

HL have issued a report on Carnival.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202206/carnival-revenue-coming-back,-challenges-remain?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00RN&utm_content=Share research&theSource=E00RN&Override=1&utm_campaign=E00RN_Share Research_Update_Holders&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&theSource=E00RN&e_cti=326174&e_ct=T&Override=1&deliveryName=DM30076

 

Brian

[Ranchi]

June 23rd would seem to be the answer to the original question…for now! 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Ranchi

[Bin man]

17% drop in shareprice today 2.7 million shares traded average 1.4 million not looking good .

[funinhounslow]

On 6/25/2022 at 7:34 PM, funinhounslow said:

Just a shame we didn’t know this on Wednesday 22nd June…

 

18 hours ago, Ranchi said:

June 23rd would seem to be the answer to the original question…for now! 

We may have spoken too soon…

 

A couple of negative analysts’ reports are being referenced in the media but such volatility is rarely a good sign…

 

😳

[PRINCESSTHE BEST]

6 hours ago, funinhounslow said:

 

We may have spoken too soon…

 

A couple of negative analysts’ reports are being referenced in the media but such volatility is rarely a good sign…

 

Market insider is rating Carnival as a hold. This is based on the fact that analysts are 8 buy ratings, 14 hold ratings, and 10 sell ratings.

Edited June 29, 2022 by PRINCESSTHE BEST

[PRINCESSTHE BEST]

Analysts consensus is that current target price is £12.77. CCL rose slightly on the Dow jones on Friday. Perhaps we have hit the bottom for the time being. The next few weeks will be interesting.

Edited July 3, 2022 by PRINCESSTHE BEST

[Cruisemeister2002]

2 hours ago, PRINCESSTHE BEST said:

Analysts consensus is that current target price is £12.77. CCL rose slightly on the Dow jones on Friday. Perhaps we have hit the bottom for the time being. The next few weeks will be interesting.

You are right. They have been bouncing around like a small yacht in the Bay of Biscay. Don't think we will see £40 or £50 per share for many years. But can see them rising from the depths that they are now. People such as ourselves will always want to get away. It would make me a tad more comfortable if there wasn't more negative than positive comments with regards to P&O when it comes to venues on ships being closed due to lack of staff. I also question why they can offer breakfast in your cabin, but charge you £2.50 a time, but can't do a turndown. If a turndown is not done due to them reducing contact with passengers then surely by offering breakfast or any type of food in your cabin involves contact unless they've sawn the bottom of the doors off and slide it under ?

[davecttr]

I think they can't to a turn down because the cabin stewards have been given other duties in addition to cabin work

[Cathygh]

For anyone interested there is a group for Carnival Shareholders on a certain social media site.

[Waju]

1 hour ago, davecttr said:

I think they can't to a turn down because the cabin stewards have been given other duties in addition to cabin work

Do you think there will be a minimum ratio of staff to customers they can sail with?  I'm meaning in the same way a flight has to have a certain number of cabin crew.

[wowzz]

At the end of the day,  CCL are struggling to survive,  as per various broker's notes. 

Moaning about turn down service, cost of breakfast in your cabin etc is irrelevant. 

Prices for everything need to increase dramatically,  otherwise there will no longer be a cruise industry left.

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by wowzz

[terrierjohn]

56 minutes ago, wowzz said:

At the end of the day,  CCL are struggling to survive,  as per various broker's notes. 

Moaning about turn down service, cost of breakfast in your cabin etc is irrelevant. 

Prices for everything need to increase dramatically,  otherwise there will no longer be a cruise industry left.

 

While there is a demand for cruise holidays, there is likely to be a cruise line industry, so I think you are being over pessimistic wowzz.

Equally since the major cruise lines have the largest debt, I suspect that until it becomes crystal clear that they can no longer service their debts, it is unlikely that the major creditors will seek any winding up orders.

As to price increases, they are likely but probably only in line with inflation.

Edited July 3, 2022 by terrierjohn

[funinhounslow]

8 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

While there is a demand for cruise holidays, there is likely to be a cruise line industry, so I think you are being over pessimistic wowzz.

Equally since the major cruise lines have the largest debt, I suspect that until it becomes crystal clear that they can no longer service their debts, it is unlikely that the major creditors will seek any winding up orders.

As to price increases, they are likely but probably only in line with inflation.

What affect do you think soaring energy and food costs plus interest rate rises (with more in the pipeline) will have on demand for cruises?

 

Less of an issue for retirees with index liked DB pensions but overall this demographic doesn’t seem fond of the new “mega ships” that Carnival have bet the house on…

 

Plus Covid is roaring ahead again - I’ve just succumbed after dodging it for over two years. 
 

The travel industry in general - and cruises in particular - face significant headwinds. 
 

Even at the current price I think buying 100 Carnival shares is brave. But fair enough for someone who fancies a “punt”…

[JDB78]

6 hours ago, funinhounslow said:

What affect do you think soaring energy and food costs plus interest rate rises (with more in the pipeline) will have on demand for cruises?

 

Less of an issue for retirees with index liked DB pensions but overall this demographic doesn’t seem fond of the new “mega ships” that Carnival have bet the house on…

 

Plus Covid is roaring ahead again - I’ve just succumbed after dodging it for over two years. 
 

The travel industry in general - and cruises in particular - face significant headwinds. 
 

Even at the current price I think buying 100 Carnival shares is brave. But fair enough for someone who fancies a “punt”…

I think you're right. Noone could recommend buying Carnival shares at the minute. Maybe a few quarters down the line when things are clearer who knows. There is a possibility that the price they are now is a good investment, but as like you say only as a punt.

 

There are people who only buy shares when the price is low, but I guess low is relative. Yes the shares are low historically speaking, but low to where they might be in 6 months time?

 

Me personally I'd still consider buying more shares, I'd like to think that if Carnival can get through next 12 months or so then things might look a lot different? Got to speculate to accumulate didn't someone once say?