When will Carnival shares be worth buying ?

[Cruisemeister2002]

On 7/3/2022 at 11:02 PM, wowzz said:

At the end of the day,  CCL are struggling to survive,  as per various broker's notes. 

Moaning about turn down service, cost of breakfast in your cabin etc is irrelevant. 

Prices for everything need to increase dramatically,  otherwise there will no longer be a cruise industry left.

 

I feel that it is a knife edge situation, just as our economy is currently. Everyone is increasing prices but finding less takers for their goods. If by increasing prices you price people out of cruising you may get more money per head but fewer customers. Whilst it may be an insignificance to yourself charging £2.50 for breakfast in your cabin some who would like that service may think on a long cruise it's too much. I personal am not concerned as we either go to the MDR or if for whatever reason we get up later we go to the buffet area. My point wasn't to do with the cost it was the point of being able to get something you had to pay for and not getting something you didn't based loosely on the amount of contact with a steward, whether your own or one responsible for delivering breakfast. I am also not concerned that turndowns aren't being done. I suppose as someone said it's lack of staff.

[PRINCESSTHE BEST]

It may seem a bit simplistic, but older people tend to go on cruises for several reasons e.g. travel to foreign countries without flying, having someone else do their cooking and cleaning, not using gas and electricity at home. These and other reasons will ensure that cruise lines continue to have healthy booking figures. At the time of writing this post Carnival shares are bucking the stock market trend and rising above $9 per share. Please do not write off Carnival yet, there is still a lot of mileage left in this company.

[Harry Peterson]

1 minute ago, PRINCESSTHE BEST said:

It may seem a bit simplistic, but older people tend to go on cruises for several reasons e.g. travel to foreign countries without flying, having someone else do their cooking and cleaning, not using gas and electricity at home. These and other reasons will ensure that cruise lines continue to have healthy booking figures. At the time of writing this post Carnival shares are bucking the stock market trend and rising above $9 per share. Please do not write off Carnival yet, there is still a lot of mileage left in this company.

They still need the money to do it though, and with inflation running at around 11% they may not all have it. The promised Triple Lock on state pensions was ditched, energy prices have more than doubled, and fuel is around £2 a litre.

 

Some pensioners will have plenty of slack, but a lot won’t, and holidays will be the first thing to go. 

[JDB78]

6 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

They still need the money to do it though, and with inflation running at around 11% they may not all have it. The promised Triple Lock on state pensions was ditched, energy prices have more than doubled, and fuel is around £2 a litre.

 

Some pensioners will have plenty of slack, but a lot won’t, and holidays will be the first thing to go. 

You wouldn't think holidays are the 1st to go seeing the carnage at airports on the news at the moment. Easyjet simply can't keep up with capacity they want to run at - Although I appreciate that many of these holidays will have been booked quite some time ago. I guess we are in a unique situation at the minute where many people are itching to get away after maybe not travelling abroad for the past 2 or 3 years. Possibly the travel industry will see a hit this time next year?

 

Not sure if there have been any past studies on holidays sales and financially difficult times? Me personally, I take the attitude of look after the pennies so the pounds look after themselves. I guess others might continue to eat out regularly, new clothes etc and cut the holidays?

 

It always amazes me just how resilient people seem to be. Doom and gloom on the news, no-one has any money, yet go to a shopping centre at the weekend and you can't get a parking spaces it's that busy. I remember in the last crash, in 2007-08 the big winners were shops like £1 shops, Aldi and Lidl. People still seem to spend, just make changes to their weekly spend.

 

Definitely worrying times, but I don't think its time write the company just yet - although the next 12-18 months might massive for the company. Fill the ships and they might just be ok? Hopefully anyway.

[molecrochip]

7 hours ago, JDB78 said:

Definitely worrying times, but I don't think its time write the company just yet - although the next 12-18 months might massive for the company. Fill the ships and they might just be ok? Hopefully anyway.

Great comment.

 

There is currently nothing that is causing comments such as 'struggling to survive', its just a very different company financially to what is was 3 years ago. That requires an adjustment in stock price.

 

The company has $7bn in the bank, a +ve balance sheet, reduced operational costs from ditching the older ships. The real only question is how quickly the economy/covid will allow passengers to return in order that they can pay down the debt.

[Harry Peterson]

1 minute ago, molecrochip said:

Great comment.

 

There is currently nothing that is causing comments such as 'struggling to survive', its just a very different company financially to what is was 3 years ago. That requires an adjustment in stock price.

 

The company has $7bn in the bank, a +ve balance sheet, reduced operational costs from ditching the older ships. The real only question is how quickly the economy/covid will allow passengers to return in order that they can pay down the debt.

And the debts? And the very high interest rates on those debts? And fuel prices? And inflation? And a looming world recession?

 

But as a shareholder, I admire your positivity.

 

[Ardennais]

3 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Great comment.

 

There is currently nothing that is causing comments such as 'struggling to survive', its just a very different company financially to what is was 3 years ago. That requires an adjustment in stock price.

 

The company has $7bn in the bank, a +ve balance sheet, reduced operational costs from ditching the older ships. The real only question is how quickly the economy/covid will allow passengers to return in order that they can pay down the debt.

But there’s another real question too! A lot us here are ready to cruise, regardless of the economy/covid. So how quickly will P&O provide their full offer once again? All speciality restaurants open,  full provision for children, and all the other missing bits and pieces which we’ve been led to believe are Covid related and temporary in nature? A bit of reassurance would surely help convince many that P&O can again provide a great cruise experience! 

[wowzz]

6 minutes ago, Ardennais said:

All speciality restaurants open,  

Indeed. If I was on Arcadia at the moment I would be annoyed that both speciality restaurants were shut for  the  duration of the cruise.

[terrierjohn]

5 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

And the debts? And the very high interest rates on those debts? And fuel prices? And inflation? And a looming world recession?

 

But as a shareholder, I admire your positivity.

 

Wasnt it always said that inflation was very valuable to debtors, it certainly was for mortgage holders in the 70s?

[Yorkypete]

23 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

Wasnt it always said that inflation was very valuable to debtors, it certainly was for mortgage holders in the 70s?

I was contemplating buying some shares but that was a month ago. Now, I am not so sure. Covid is growing again and the NHS is in trouble. Many countries are suffering more at present and I can see that some of them will be introducing new restrictions in the near future. One of our favourite countries, Malta, has seen deaths increase and current infections rising from 2500 to 7500 in three weeks!. As the cost of living is still increasing and we now have no Government then many will not be able to afford cruising. Another aspect is that as the companies build bigger ships there will be many ports which will be restrictive to them. All in all I am not very nconfident of the survival of some companies.

[wowzz]

38 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

I was contemplating buying some shares but that was a month ago. Now, I am not so sure. Covid is growing again and the NHS is in trouble. Many countries are suffering more at present and I can see that some of them will be introducing new restrictions in the near future. One of our favourite countries, Malta, has seen deaths increase and current infections rising from 2500 to 7500 in three weeks!. As the cost of living is still increasing and we now have no Government then many will not be able to afford cruising. Another aspect is that as the companies build bigger ships there will be many ports which will be restrictive to them. All in all I am not very nconfident of the survival of some companies.

The only reason I can see to buy Carnival shares  is for the obc. Buying for future profit is unwise.

If you plan to do more than five fourteen day cruises in the next couple of years, you will be in credit,  even if the shares drop to zero (assuming you pay less than £8 per share).   

However, all the experts generally agree that buying just for shareholder perks is unwise. 

[molecrochip]

On 7/6/2022 at 1:35 PM, Ardennais said:

But there’s another real question too! A lot us here are ready to cruise, regardless of the economy/covid. So how quickly will P&O provide their full offer once again? All speciality restaurants open,  full provision for children, and all the other missing bits and pieces which we’ve been led to believe are Covid related and temporary in nature? A bit of reassurance would surely help convince many that P&O can again provide a great cruise experience! 

Paul Ludlow actually commented on the staff shortages on his update this morning. As with the restart dates - little point mentioning publicly a date and then missing it.

On 7/6/2022 at 9:34 AM, Harry Peterson said:

And the debts? And the very high interest rates on those debts? And fuel prices? And inflation? And a looming world recession?

 

But as a shareholder, I admire your positivity.

 

Yes, the debts are what cause the need for an adjustment in price. The rest will impact on future profitability but moving into profitability has been the biggest task since restart.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

Currently just over $9.00 If I did not own hundreds of shares now I would get more. Wife says no. Once into 2025 the shares will sky rocket. My opinion only.

[CGinMTL]

3 hours ago, wowzz said:

The only reason I can see to buy Carnival shares  is for the obc. Buying for future profit is unwise.

If you plan to do more than five fourteen day cruises in the next couple of years, you will be in credit,  even if the shares drop to zero (assuming you pay less than £8 per share).   

However, all the experts generally agree that buying just for shareholder perks is unwise. 

I am actually paying for my Adult daughter to add carnival shares to her portfolio. 

I bought my 100 shares in March  2020.

 

Market is down on everything. 

[wowzz]

2 hours ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

Currently just over $9.00 If I did not own hundreds of shares now I would get more. Wife says no. Once into 2025 the shares will sky rocket. My opinion only.

Brave man !

Your wife is right, imho.

No dividends for the forseeable future, and inflation (especially fuel) adding to costs with little fkex to increase revenue.

 

[Granny bee]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:35 AM, apple42 said:

I bought 100 shares a couple of weeks ago at £8.54 per share plus costs and tax. Have three 14 day cruises booked for the next15 months providing things stay as they are I should get £450 obc. Yes I realised there was a risk, but one I could afford to lose the costs. 

Hi.   We have two 14 nights cruises booked for September and December.   If I now buy shares would I be able to get on board credit or do I have to own shares before I book.    Thanks 

[wowzz]

16 minutes ago, Granny bee said:

Hi.   We have two 14 nights cruises booked for September and December.   If I now buy shares would I be able to get on board credit or do I have to own shares before I book.    Thanks 

If you buy the shares now, you will be fine. From memory, you need to apply for OBC at least three weeks before departure date.

[majortom10]

3 hours ago, Granny bee said:

Hi.   We have two 14 nights cruises booked for September and December.   If I now buy shares would I be able to get on board credit or do I have to own shares before I book.    Thanks 

As long as you own shares when you request OBC then it doesn't matter when you booked the cruise before you actually apply.

 

[Ardennais]

18 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Paul Ludlow actually commented on the staff shortages on his update this morning. As with the restart dates - little point mentioning publicly a date and then missing it.

Yes, the debts are what cause the need for an adjustment in price. The rest will impact on future profitability but moving into profitability has been the biggest task since restart.

I understand that a firm date is difficult, but is that it then?! Not even a rough timescale? Just pay your balance and hope that what you’ve paid for (and what is advertised) will be available? It’s obvious that the money making operations will return such as speciality restaurants, but what about the other missing little bits and pieces? Will they ever return? Nobody seems to want to give an answer. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Ardennais

[Granny bee]

23 hours ago, majortom10 said:

As long as you own shares when you request OBC then it doesn't matter when you booked the cruise before you actually apply.

 

Do I need to book select 

[BrianI]

1 minute ago, Granny bee said:

Do I need to book select 

No. Any booking qualifies.

You need your booking reference and proof that you currently own 100 ( or more) shares.

Brian

[Granny bee]

2 minutes ago, BrianI said:

No. Any booking qualifies.

You need your booking reference and proof that you currently own 100 ( or more) shares.

Brian

Many thanks.  I might take the plunge 🛳

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, BrianI said:

No. Any booking qualifies.

You need your booking reference and proof that you currently own 100 ( or more) shares.

Brian

I might be being overly pessimistic but I wonder, as the share price is so low, whether Carnival might increase the number of shares needed to qualify for OBC fairly soon.

[wowzz]

19 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I might be being overly pessimistic but I wonder, as the share price is so low, whether Carnival might increase the number of shares needed to qualify for OBC fairly soon.

Not sure what benefit that would be to CCL. Even if the number of shares required was doubled,  the impact on the share price woukd be minimal, and many might decide to sell off their one hundred shares, so the share price could go down.

And, on a day to day basis,  the actual share price is immaterial, as far as CCL is concerned.  

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, terrierjohn said:

I might be being overly pessimistic but I wonder, as the share price is so low, whether Carnival might increase the number of shares needed to qualify for OBC fairly soon.

If they did that it would tip the balance away from P&O for me as £150 OBC is a considerable amount of money given the price of drinks etc. I have £250 OBC for my January Iona cruise and with the shareholder benefit that is £400. I won' be spending much more than that for the fortnight. Selling the shares might net me £1000, equivalent to 16 weeks of the full drinks package on Marella. Of course having already received more in OBC and dividends than the original cost of the shares the decision will be easier.

 

When are the shareholder benefit decisions announced?